{"id":103670,"date":"2026-04-03T00:28:14","date_gmt":"2026-04-02T22:28:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=103670"},"modified":"2026-04-02T16:53:46","modified_gmt":"2026-04-02T14:53:46","slug":"iran-americka-armada-se-dostala-do-pasti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/04\/03\/iran-americka-armada-se-dostala-do-pasti\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00cdr\u00e1n: Americk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da se dostala do pasti"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Existuje st\u00e1le v\u00edce d\u016fkaz\u016f, \u017ee Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty p\u0159ipravuj\u00ed pozemn\u00ed operaci proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu. To je ale smrt\u00edc\u00ed past pro Trumpovy jednotky a pro image Ameriky ve sv\u011bt\u011b.\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 nemaj\u00ed s\u00edly pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 k rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 invazi do \u00cdr\u00e1nu. V roce 2003 vpadly do zdevastovan\u00e9ho Ir\u00e1ku t\u0159i americk\u00e9 divize (3. p\u011b\u0161\u00ed divize, 101. v\u00fdsadkov\u00e1 divize a 1. expedi\u010dn\u00ed pluk n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed p\u011bchoty), jedna americk\u00e1 brig\u00e1da (1. brig\u00e1da n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed p\u011bchoty) a t\u0159i britsk\u00e9 brig\u00e1dy, v\u0161echny pod divizn\u00edm velen\u00edm. \u00cdr\u00e1n se\u00a0<\/span>rozkl\u00e1d\u00e1 na plo\u0161e<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u00a01 648 195 km\u00b2, zat\u00edmco Ir\u00e1k m\u00e1 435 052 km\u00b2.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Rozs\u00e1hl\u00e1 invaze do \u00cdr\u00e1nu by vy\u017eadovala mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed s\u00edly. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty takov\u00e9 s\u00edly v regionu nemaj\u00ed a v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b je nenasazuj\u00ed. Americk\u00e9 s\u00edly dnes zahrnuj\u00ed expedi\u010dn\u00ed jednotku n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed p\u011bchoty, speci\u00e1ln\u00ed jednotky, \u010d\u00e1st 75. p\u011b\u0161\u00edho pluku Ranger\u016f (lehk\u00e1 v\u00fdsadkov\u00e1 \u00fato\u010dn\u00e1 p\u011bchota), letadla speci\u00e1ln\u00edch opera\u010dn\u00edch jednotek a nespecifikovan\u00fd po\u010det voj\u00e1k\u016f z 82. v\u00fdsadkov\u00e9 divize, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b ekvivalent bojov\u00e9 brig\u00e1dy. Dal\u0161\u00ed expedi\u010dn\u00ed jednotka je na cest\u011b.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Americk\u00e9 s\u00edly, kter\u00e9 \u010del\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu, se zhruba rovnaj\u00ed mechanizovan\u00e9 lehk\u00e9 p\u011bchotn\u00ed divizi vybaven\u00e9 m\u00edrn\u00fdm po\u010dtem t\u011b\u017ek\u00fdch zbran\u00ed. Tato teoretick\u00e1 divize je rozm\u00edst\u011bna po cel\u00e9m opera\u010dn\u00edm prostoru a spad\u00e1 pod r\u016fzn\u00e9 slo\u017eky ozbrojen\u00fdch sil: n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed p\u011bchota se hl\u00e1s\u00ed k n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvu, v\u00fdsadk\u00e1\u0159i a Rangers k arm\u00e1d\u011b, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e speci\u00e1ln\u00ed jednotky tvo\u0159\u00ed samostatn\u00e9 velen\u00ed. Jedinou zahrani\u010dn\u00ed silou schopnou Ameri\u010dan\u016fm pomoci jsou Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty, jejich\u017e vl\u00e1da udr\u017euje s \u00cdr\u00e1nem nevy\u0159e\u0161en\u00fd \u00fazemn\u00ed spor a chov\u00e1 k n\u011bmu hlubokou z\u00e1\u0161\u0165. Sv\u00fdmi odvetn\u00fdmi \u00fadery \u00cdr\u00e1nci p\u0159ipravili emir\u00e1ty o budoucnost, kterou v\u016fdci tohoto konglomer\u00e1tu mikrost\u00e1t\u016f budovali po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve skute\u010dnosti m\u00e1 americk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da oproti \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm sil\u00e1m pouze dv\u011b v\u00fdhody. Prvn\u00ed je leteck\u00e1 podpora. Je schopna nasadit zna\u010dnou palebnou s\u00edlu pomoc\u00ed bombard\u00e9r\u016f k poskytov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 leteck\u00e9 podpory pozemn\u00edm jednotk\u00e1m. Zat\u00edmco jin\u00e1 zem\u011b by mohla vyslat n\u011bkolik \u00fato\u010dn\u00fdch letadel nebo st\u00edha\u010dek, z nich\u017e ka\u017ed\u00e1 nese tunu bomb, na podporu sv\u00fdch pozemn\u00edch jednotek, Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty mohou s chirurgickou p\u0159esnost\u00ed shodit \u010dty\u0159icet a\u017e pades\u00e1t tun bomb b\u011bhem jedin\u00e9ho n\u00e1letu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Druh\u00e1 v\u00fdhoda spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v ter\u00e9nn\u00edch zku\u0161enostech z\u00edskan\u00fdch b\u011bhem boj\u016f v Ir\u00e1ku v roce 2000. V t\u00e9to vojensk\u00e9 kampani Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty zv\u00edt\u011bzily v boji s pom\u011brem ob\u011bt\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 100 ir\u00e1ck\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f na 1 americk\u00e9ho voj\u00e1ka. Tyto ter\u00e9nn\u00ed zku\u0161enosti v\u0161ak nelze srovn\u00e1vat se zku\u0161enostmi \u00cdr\u00e1nu, zejm\u00e9na proti \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 pravideln\u00e9 arm\u00e1d\u011b. Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 jednodu\u0161e nemaj\u00ed dostatek lidsk\u00fdch sil. Ve velk\u00e9m konfliktu by \u00cdr\u00e1nci, vezmeme-li v \u00favahu ztr\u00e1ty zp\u016fsoben\u00e9 leteckou silou, ztratili tis\u00edce mu\u017e\u016f na ka\u017ed\u00e9ho americk\u00e9ho voj\u00e1ka. \u00cdr\u00e1n m\u00e1 na rozd\u00edl od Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f tis\u00edce bitevn\u011b zocelen\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f a m\u016f\u017ee si je dovolit ztratit, co\u017e neplat\u00ed pro Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty: nemobilizovaly z\u00e1lo\u017en\u00edky ani nenasadily voj\u00e1ky na v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 \u00farovni. Nejsou p\u0159ipraveny kompenzovat sv\u00e9 sou\u010dasn\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty, by\u0165 jen mal\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato realita omezuje potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed nasazen\u00ed americk\u00fdch pozemn\u00edch sil pouze na \u010dty\u0159i oblasti. Prvn\u00ed se t\u00fdk\u00e1 spole\u010dn\u00fdch operac\u00ed s Kurdy v hor\u00e1ch severoz\u00e1padn\u00edho \u00cdr\u00e1nu, kde\u00a0<\/span>jsou pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b ji\u017e nasazeny<\/span><\/a>\u00a0americk\u00e9 speci\u00e1ln\u00ed jednotky . Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty maj\u00ed v t\u011bchto oblastech schopnost vyv\u00edjet na \u00cdr\u00e1n zna\u010dn\u00fd tlak, ale rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Druh\u00e1 mo\u017enost zahrnuje podobn\u00e9 akce v provincii S\u00edst\u00e1n a Bal\u00fa\u010dist\u00e1n ve spolupr\u00e1ci s bal\u00fa\u010dsk\u00fdmi separatisty. Toto je politicky nejrizikov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed varianta; neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 z\u00e1ruka intervence m\u00edstn\u00edch sil. Je to mo\u017enost, ale nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

T\u0159et\u00ed mo\u017enost se t\u00fdk\u00e1 n\u00e1let\u016f na jadern\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed. Je t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 p\u0159edv\u00eddat, jak by se to mohlo vyvinout: \u00cdr\u00e1n je obrovsk\u00fd a takov\u00e9 n\u00e1lety nelze prov\u00e1d\u011bt vrtuln\u00edky. Teoreticky by vrtuln\u00edky CH-47, kter\u00e9 pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 americk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da, mohly dos\u00e1hnout Fordow \u2013 kde se nach\u00e1z\u00ed z\u00e1vod na obohacov\u00e1n\u00ed uranu \u2013 z Ir\u00e1ku a Kuvajtu, ale setrv\u00e1n\u00ed v nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9m vzdu\u0161n\u00e9m prostoru po tak dlouhou dobu, zejm\u00e9na v n\u00edzk\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161ce, je nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9. Riziko je ne\u00fanosn\u00e9.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010ctvrt\u00e1 hypot\u00e9za je, \u017ee Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty by s americkou podporou obsadily od \u00cdr\u00e1nu t\u0159i ostrovy (Ab\u00fa M\u00fasa, Mal\u00fd Tumb a Velk\u00fd Tumb) v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu, zat\u00edmco Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty\u00a0<\/span>by mohly za\u00fato\u010dit<\/span><\/a>\u00a0na ostatn\u00ed ( ostrov\u00a0<\/span>Charg<\/span>\u00a0, p\u0159es kter\u00fd proud\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 ropa; ostrov Ke\u0161m, velk\u00fd obydlen\u00fd ostrov (135 km dlouh\u00fd); a dva ostrovy nach\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed se t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v samotn\u00e9m Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu \u2013 Hormuz a Larak). Velikost americk\u00fdch sil by v\u0161ak znemo\u017enila sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dobyt\u00ed Ke\u0161mu a ostatn\u00edch ostrov\u016f. Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 by mohli Ke\u0161m prom\u011bnit v boji\u0161t\u011b a na zna\u010dnou dobu okupovat jeho \u010d\u00e1sti, ale jejich mo\u017enosti by byly omezen\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud nezah\u00e1j\u00ed \u00fatok na Ke\u0161m, budou schopni dob\u00fdt v\u0161echny ostatn\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ostrovy v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu. Jeliko\u017e v\u0161ak jejich p\u0159\u00edtomnost bude p\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00e1 (prvek p\u0159ekvapen\u00ed bude ztracen), nebudou se moci b\u011bhem \u00fatoku vyhnout kolos\u00e1ln\u00edm ztr\u00e1t\u00e1m. Pot\u00e9, co americk\u00e1 p\u011bchota p\u0159i \u00fatoku na ostrovy utrp\u011bla masakr hor\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e ten v Normandii b\u011bhem dne D, mus\u00ed b\u00fdt schopna je udr\u017eet, proto\u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1nci se vr\u00e1t\u00ed a budou tyto ostrovy dnem i noc\u00ed bombardovat drony a raketami. Pokud se Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm poda\u0159\u00ed um\u00edstit na tomto m\u00edst\u011b pos\u00e1dku vojsk ze Spojen\u00fdch arabsk\u00fdch emir\u00e1t\u016f, budou Arabov\u00e9 vystaveni neust\u00e1l\u00e9mu bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

I kdyby Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty obsadily jeden z t\u011bchto ostrov\u016f, nebudou m\u00edt \u0161anci z t\u00e9to v\u00e1lky vyj\u00edt v\u00edt\u011bzn\u011b. Ka\u017ed\u00e1 eskalace donut\u00ed Trumpa volit: dal\u0161\u00ed eskalaci nebo \u00fastup. Pokud jde o Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty, \u00fa\u010dast v konfliktu by byla v\u00e1\u017enou chybou: Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty se nakonec st\u00e1hnou, ale \u00cdr\u00e1nci z\u016fstanou nabl\u00edzku a tentokr\u00e1t budou sami.<\/span><\/p>\n

Philippe Rosenthal<\/span><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Existuje st\u00e1le v\u00edce d\u016fkaz\u016f, \u017ee Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty p\u0159ipravuj\u00ed pozemn\u00ed operaci proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu. To je ale…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":103671,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[80,38,452,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103670"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=103670"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103670\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/103671"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=103670"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=103670"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=103670"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}