{"id":103640,"date":"2026-04-03T00:17:54","date_gmt":"2026-04-02T22:17:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=103640"},"modified":"2026-04-02T10:48:38","modified_gmt":"2026-04-02T08:48:38","slug":"brandon-smith-globalni-energeticka-krize-nebo-iranska-kapitulace-za-pet-tydnu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/04\/03\/brandon-smith-globalni-energeticka-krize-nebo-iranska-kapitulace-za-pet-tydnu\/","title":{"rendered":"Brandon Smith: Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed energetick\u00e1 krize, nebo \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 kapitulace za p\u011bt t\u00fddn\u016f?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1fb4c2c elementor-widget elementor-widget-theme-post-content\" data-id=\"1fb4c2c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"theme-post-content.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed energetick\u00e9 trhy naposledy za\u017eily \u0161ok srovnateln\u00fd s t\u00edm, kter\u00e9mu m\u016f\u017eeme \u010delit letos, b\u011bhem arabsk\u00e9ho ropn\u00e9ho embarga v roce 1973. Nap\u011bt\u00ed eskalovalo po jomkipursk\u00e9 v\u00e1lce, kdy arabsk\u00e1 koalice zah\u00e1jila p\u0159ekvapiv\u00fd \u00fatok na Izrael. Zem\u011b OPEC spojily s\u00edly, aby zastavily dod\u00e1vky ropy izraelsk\u00fdm spojenc\u016fm, v\u010detn\u011b Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f. T\u00edm se zastavilo p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 15 % v\u00fdvozu ropy do Ameriky, co\u017e vedlo ke spekulac\u00edm na trhu, hromad\u011bn\u00ed z\u00e1sob a zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed cen.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Dopady se roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ily i na asijsk\u00e9 trhy, kter\u00e9 byly dlouho z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na energetick\u00fdch zdroj\u00edch z Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu. To zpomalilo pr\u016fmyslovou v\u00fdrobu a mnoho vl\u00e1d zavedlo p\u0159\u00edd\u011blov\u00fd syst\u00e9m a cenovou regulaci.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Obrazy dlouh\u00fdch front aut na \u010derpac\u00edch stanic\u00edch a lid\u00ed, kte\u0159\u00ed pln\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed kanystry, se vryly do kolektivn\u00ed pam\u011bti ka\u017ed\u00e9ho, kdo tuto dobu pro\u017eil. Skute\u010dnou hrozbou pro USA v\u0161ak nebyl nedostatek dod\u00e1vek, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e vyhl\u00eddka na kask\u00e1dov\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst trhu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Stagflaci spolu se zranitelnost\u00ed dodavatelsk\u00e9ho \u0159et\u011bzce zhor\u0161ila panika ve\u0159ejnosti. Akciov\u00e9 trhy se tak\u00e9 propadly do recese v o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9ho poklesu. Embargo trvalo pouze p\u011bt m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f, ale \u0161kody byly obrovsk\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Z archiv\u016f: Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 se b\u011bhem ropn\u00e9 krize v roce 1973 obe\u0161li s men\u0161\u00edmi n\u00e1klady.\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/IIwiAp-Yvvk?feature=oembed\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Od 70. let 20. stolet\u00ed se situace pom\u011brn\u011b dramaticky zm\u011bnila. Zat\u00edmco USA jsou mnohem m\u00e9n\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na energetick\u00fdch zdroj\u00edch z Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu, naru\u0161en\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00edho obchodu s ropou se m\u016f\u017ee \u0161\u00ed\u0159it a ovlivnit americk\u00e9 trhy. Arab\u0161t\u00ed producenti ropy jsou nav\u00edc nyn\u00ed z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti na stran\u011b USA, co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee riziko dlouhodob\u00e9ho naru\u0161en\u00ed v d\u016fsledku konfliktu je ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu jsou p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 \u0161kody pro Ameriku minim\u00e1ln\u00ed. Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem se p\u0159epravuje pouze 7 % v\u0161ech z\u00e1silek ropy do USA a venezuelsk\u00e1 ropa pom\u00e1h\u00e1 tuto mezeru zaplnit. V\u011bt\u0161\u00ed nebezpe\u010d\u00ed spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v globalizaci a vz\u00e1jemn\u011b propojen\u00e9m obchodn\u00edm syst\u00e9mu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Nap\u0159\u00edklad spojenci USA, jako je Austr\u00e1lie, Indie, Japonsko a Filip\u00edny, by byli uzav\u0159en\u00edm Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu v\u00e1\u017en\u011b posti\u017eeni. Austr\u00e1lie v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b \u010del\u00ed m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edmu nedostatku dod\u00e1vek a zem\u011b m\u00e1 jen mal\u00e9 nebo \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 rezervy. Filip\u00edny ji\u017e vyhl\u00e1sily stav nouze a zavedly p\u0159\u00edd\u011blov\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed; nouzov\u00e9 z\u00e1soby maj\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e1 na dva m\u011bs\u00edce. Japonsko v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b \u010derp\u00e1 ze strategick\u00fdch z\u00e1sob ropy a roz\u0161i\u0159uje v\u00fdrobu energie z uhl\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edna je vystavena zna\u010dn\u00e9mu riziku, proto\u017ee 15 % jej\u00edch dod\u00e1vek ropy poch\u00e1z\u00ed p\u0159\u00edmo z \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch ropn\u00fdch pol\u00ed a zhruba 35 % jej\u00edch celkov\u00fdch dod\u00e1vek ropy se p\u0159epravuje p\u0159es Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv. \u010c\u00edna m\u00e1 z\u00e1soby p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b na \u010dty\u0159i m\u011bs\u00edce, ne\u017e zemi zas\u00e1hne krize jako n\u00e1kladn\u00ed vlak.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"V\u00fdpadky dod\u00e1vek energie z \u00cdr\u00e1nu zp\u016fsobily rozs\u00e1hl\u00fd nedostatek ropy v cel\u00e9 Asii.\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/0iMdSJPM6Y8?feature=oembed\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V\u011bt\u0161ina asijsk\u00fdch zem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 jsou z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch ropy a zemn\u00edho plynu p\u0159es Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv, m\u00e1 asi dva m\u011bs\u00edce do doby, ne\u017e mezi obyvatelstvem vypukne panika a na \u010derpac\u00edch stanic\u00edch se za\u010dnou tvo\u0159it dlouh\u00e9 fronty, podobn\u00e9 t\u011bm, kter\u00e9 se staly v roce 1973.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee m\u00e1 v \u00famyslu povolit pr\u016fliv \u201enenep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdm plavidl\u016fm\u201c, p\u0159esto tento t\u00fdden po tomto ozn\u00e1men\u00ed zastavil n\u011bkolik \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch lod\u00ed. Je pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 podm\u00ednky budou trvat nejm\u00e9n\u011b dal\u0161\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edc a v nejhor\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv mohl z\u016fstat pro mnoho zraniteln\u00fdch zem\u00ed uzav\u0159en\u00fd i dlouho po pl\u00e1novan\u00e9m datu. \u010c\u00edm d\u00e9le bude v\u00e1lka pokra\u010dovat, t\u00edm v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed je pravd\u011bpodobnost tr\u017en\u00ed kask\u00e1dy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V\u0161iml jsem si, \u017ee existuj\u00ed n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed koupen\u00ed a zaplacen\u00ed \u201eprognostici\u201c, kte\u0159\u00ed t\u011bmto ud\u00e1lostem d\u00e1vaj\u00ed sv\u016fj vlastn\u00ed propagandistick\u00fd n\u00e1dech, v\u010detn\u011b my\u0161lenky, \u017ee Z\u00e1pad je na pokraji kolapsu kv\u016fli uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu. Ve skute\u010dnosti je V\u00fdchod touto v\u00e1lkou ekonomicky mnohem v\u00edce zasa\u017een ne\u017e Z\u00e1pad. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b pro USA p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00ed rizika a ta z\u00e1vis\u00ed na tom, jak dlouho bude konflikt trvat.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Energetick\u00e1 krize, volebn\u00ed hrozby a glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomick\u00e1 v\u00e1lka<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Jak jsem poznamenal ve sv\u00e9m \u010dl\u00e1nku z \u0159\u00edjna 2024 s n\u00e1zvem \u201e\u00a0<\/span><em><span dir=\"auto\">Atlantick\u00e1 rada m\u00e1 velk\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny na v\u00e1lku mezi USA a \u00cdr\u00e1nem<\/span><\/em><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0\u201c, mezi globalisty existuje spole\u010dn\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed o zata\u017een\u00ed Ameri\u010dan\u016f a Evropan\u016f do dlouhodob\u00fdch konflikt\u016f s \u00cdr\u00e1nem a Ruskem. Jak jsem poznamenal v roce 2024:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u201e\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Mainstreamov\u00e1 m\u00e9dia informuj\u00ed, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n hackl volebn\u00ed strategie Trumpovy kampan\u011b a p\u0159edal je t\u00e1boru Harrisov\u00fdch. Existuj\u00ed tak\u00e9 zv\u011bsti, \u00fadajn\u011b \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00e9 americk\u00fdmi zpravodajsk\u00fdmi slu\u017ebami, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n pracuje na atent\u00e1tu na Trumpa. Jsou tato tvrzen\u00ed pravdiv\u00e1? Neexistuj\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 ve\u0159ejn\u011b dostupn\u00e9 d\u016fkazy, kter\u00e9 by je podporovaly.\u201c<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Mo\u017en\u00e1 \u00cdr\u00e1n opravdu chce Trumpa svrhnout. Nebo je to mo\u017en\u00e1 sou\u010d\u00e1st spiknut\u00ed, jeho\u017e c\u00edlem je zajistit, aby Trump v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed ve volb\u00e1ch podpo\u0159il tot\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lku s \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Trump opakovan\u011b prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee po n\u00e1vratu do B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu hodl\u00e1 ukon\u010dit v\u00e1lku na Ukrajin\u011b. To by zma\u0159ilo v\u00edce ne\u017e desetilet\u00ed pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed Atlantick\u00e9 rady. Ale co kdy\u017e se jim poda\u0159\u00ed vt\u00e1hnout USA do dal\u0161\u00edho konfliktu se stejn\u00fdm potenci\u00e1lem pro sv\u011btovou v\u00e1lku? P\u0159esn\u011b to \u00cdr\u00e1n je \u2013 dal\u0161\u00ed oto\u010dn\u00fd bod\u2026<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">R\u00e1d bych zd\u016fraznil, \u017ee \u201esv\u011btov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka\u201c m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt mnoho podob. Mohla by to b\u00fdt v\u00e1lka, v n\u00ed\u017e by se m\u00edsto jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed pou\u017eily ekonomick\u00e9 zbran\u011b. Mohla by to b\u00fdt s\u00e9rie z\u00e1stupn\u00fdch v\u00e1lek, kter\u00e9 by eskalovaly a \u0161\u00ed\u0159ily se.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Ukrajinsk\u00fd konflikt slou\u017e\u00ed jako z\u00e1stupn\u00e1 v\u00e1lka, v n\u00ed\u017e je Rusko nep\u0159\u00edmo konfrontov\u00e1no s NATO a Rusko je nyn\u00ed nuceno udr\u017eovat svou vojenskou p\u0159\u00edtomnost mnohem d\u00e9le, ne\u017e se o\u010dek\u00e1valo, a za v\u00fdrazn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1klady. \u00cdr\u00e1n m\u00e1 potenci\u00e1l st\u00e1t se dal\u0161\u00ed Ukrajinou, ale takovou, v n\u00ed\u017e jsou USA nuceny vynakl\u00e1dat vojensk\u00e9 a ekonomick\u00e9 zdroje, zat\u00edmco Rusko a \u010c\u00edna n\u00e1klady prodlu\u017euj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Ve sv\u00e9m \u010dl\u00e1nku z \u010dervna 2025 s n\u00e1zvem \u201e\u00a0<\/span><em><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 past: Ka\u017ed\u00fd chce, aby Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 bojovali jejich v\u00e1lky za n\u011bj<\/span><\/em><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0\u201c jsem p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bl:<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u201e\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n obdr\u017e\u00ed spoustu zbran\u00ed a informac\u00ed z rusk\u00fdch zdroj\u016f, co\u017e konflikt prodlou\u017e\u00ed\u2026\u201c<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Kreml v podstat\u011b p\u0159ipustil, \u017ee se to ji\u017e d\u011bje. \u00cdr\u00e1n prok\u00e1zal p\u0159i n\u011bkter\u00fdch raketov\u00fdch \u00fatoc\u00edch netypickou p\u0159esnost, a to pr\u00e1v\u011b proto, \u017ee m\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edstup k rusk\u00fdm satelitn\u00edm dat\u016fm a informac\u00edm o c\u00edlen\u00ed. Pokud v\u00edme, Rusov\u00e9 by klidn\u011b mohli \u0159\u00eddit strategick\u00e9 operace \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Tak\u00e9 jsem tvrdil, \u017ee:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u201e\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Na politick\u00e9 \u00farovni bude existovat hlubok\u00fd rozkol mezi proizraelsk\u00fdmi a protiv\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdmi konzervativci. Trump ztrat\u00ed velkou \u010d\u00e1st sv\u00e9ho elektor\u00e1tu, pokud USA vy\u0161lou vojska. Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 mohou levi\u010d\u00e1ky natolik nen\u00e1vid\u011bt, \u017ee na tom v roce 2026 nebude z\u00e1le\u017eet, ale ani neokonzervativc\u016fm nedaj\u00ed volnou ruku.\u201c<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Jin\u00fdmi slovy, jednou z nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch katastrof, kter\u00e9 by mohly USA v d\u016fsledku t\u00e9to v\u00e1lky postihnout, je, \u017ee ideologicky zmaten\u00ed demokrat\u00e9 a levi\u010d\u00e1ci po volb\u00e1ch v polovin\u011b volebn\u00edho obdob\u00ed znovu z\u00edskaj\u00ed dostate\u010dn\u00fd politick\u00fd vliv, aby zablokovali v\u0161echny praktick\u00e9 reformy a nakonec p\u0159ivedli zp\u011bt no\u010dn\u00ed m\u016fru \u201eprobuzen\u00fdch\u201c, kterou jsme za\u017eili za Bidenovy administrativy. Pokud k tomu dojde, jsou masivn\u00ed n\u00e1siln\u00e9 nepokoje v Americe nevyhnuteln\u00e9. Nemluv\u011b o tom, \u017ee na stole bude op\u011bt v\u00e1lka s Ruskem na Ukrajin\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Katastrofa bude okam\u017eit\u011b poci\u0165ov\u00e1na ve velk\u00fdch \u010d\u00e1stech Asie, v\u010detn\u011b ekonomick\u00e9 imploze, p\u0159\u00edd\u011blov\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu a pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fdch ob\u010dansk\u00fdch nepokoj\u016f. A d\u00edky globalizaci se ekonomick\u00e1 krize v Asii m\u016f\u017ee roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it i do z\u00e1padn\u00edch ekonomik.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Zem\u011b BRIC ztratily velkou \u010d\u00e1st vlivu, kter\u00fd m\u011bly na americk\u00fd dolar p\u0159ed deseti lety (objem \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch dolar\u016f a st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f se sn\u00ed\u017eil na polovinu a v\u00fdvoz z \u010c\u00edny do USA v\u00fdrazn\u011b poklesl), ale st\u00e1le mohou v\u00e9st dostatek ekonomick\u00fdch v\u00e1lek prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm naru\u0161en\u00ed obchodu, aby na americk\u00fdch trz\u00edch zp\u016fsobily chaos.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Jak jsem ji\u017e zm\u00ednil v ned\u00e1vn\u00fdch \u010dl\u00e1nc\u00edch, jak\u00e9koli naru\u0161en\u00ed carry trade v jenu je v sou\u010dasnosti pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed hrozbou pro americkou ekonomiku a mohlo by to b\u00fdt vyvol\u00e1no vysok\u00fdmi cenami energi\u00ed v Japonsku; ne jako \u00fatok, ale jako p\u0159irozen\u00fd d\u016fsledek vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 z\u00e1vislosti trh\u016f. To v\u0161e z\u00e1vis\u00ed na skute\u010dn\u00fdch c\u00edlech americk\u00fdch operac\u00ed v \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Je c\u00edlem okupace a \u00fapln\u00e1 zm\u011bna re\u017eimu? To je jasn\u011b to, co neokonzervativci a Izrael cht\u011bj\u00ed. Takov\u00fd z\u00e1vazek by mohl trvat roky a vy\u017eadoval by maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed nasazen\u00ed americk\u00fdch pozemn\u00edch vojsk. Pokud by v\u0161ak Trump usiloval o okupaci, mysl\u00edm, \u017ee by hned prvn\u00ed den nasadil des\u00edtky tis\u00edc voj\u00e1k\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Je c\u00edlem pouze zni\u010dit schopnost \u00cdr\u00e1nu uplat\u0148ovat vojenskou s\u00edlu za jeho hranicemi, nebo z\u00edskat kontrolu nad Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem? \u00dastup v t\u00e9to f\u00e1zi nep\u0159ipad\u00e1 v \u00favahu (Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv nelze ponechat v \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch rukou bez mo\u017enosti vlivu na n\u011bj). Tohoto c\u00edle by proto bylo nejsnadn\u011bji dos\u00e1hnout s minim\u00e1ln\u00edmi pozemn\u00edmi operacemi USA, co\u017e n\u00e1s p\u0159iv\u00e1d\u00ed k na\u0161emu nejlep\u0161\u00edmu mo\u017en\u00e9mu sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Kl\u00ed\u010d k ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky s \u00cdr\u00e1nem za p\u011bt t\u00fddn\u016f<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Neust\u00e1le sl\u00fdch\u00e1me o mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch d\u016fsledc\u00edch uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu, ale m\u00e9dia jen z\u0159\u00eddka zmi\u0148uj\u00ed, \u017ee \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 ekonomika je zasa\u017eena nejh\u016f\u0159e ze v\u0161ech. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ropn\u00e9 tankery nad\u00e1le proplouvaj\u00ed pr\u016flivem a tyto lod\u011b p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed ekonomickou z\u00e1chrannou tepnu \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Strategick\u00e9 odhady nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee bez st\u00e1l\u00e9ho pr\u016fjezdu t\u011bchto ropn\u00fdch tanker\u016f by se \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 ekonomika do p\u011bti t\u00fddn\u016f zcela zhroutila.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Ve skute\u010dnosti z \u00cdr\u00e1nu ji\u017e unikaj\u00ed informace nazna\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed, \u017ee v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b prob\u00edh\u00e1 ekonomick\u00fd kolaps. To urychl\u00ed ochotu isl\u00e1msk\u00e9ho re\u017eimu k vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud tak neu\u010din\u00ed, Trumpovou strategi\u00ed bude pozemn\u00ed invaze na ostrov Charg a tak\u00e9 na n\u011bkolik dal\u0161\u00edch ostrov\u016f, kter\u00e9 \u00cdr\u00e1n pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 k zabezpe\u010den\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu. P\u0159es ostrov Charg proch\u00e1z\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 96 % \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho v\u00fdvozu ropy, co\u017e z n\u011bj \u010din\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed zranitelnost re\u017eimu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Ale co kdy\u017e Kharg p\u0159edstavuje p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 velk\u00e9 riziko? Americk\u00e1 ve\u0159ejnost odm\u00edt\u00e1 i minim\u00e1ln\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty, a proto jsme politicky \u0161patn\u011b vybaveni k p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed vlekl\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. Existuje i jin\u00e1 cesta a ta je mnohem bezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 n\u00e1kladn\u00ed lod\u011b by se mohly st\u00e1t ter\u010dem americk\u00e9 blok\u00e1dy Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu, daleko od \u00fazk\u00fdch vod Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu. Lod\u011b by mohly b\u00fdt zni\u010deny, ale m\u00e1m podez\u0159en\u00ed, \u017ee se ministerstvo obrany bude sna\u017eit zabr\u00e1nit \u00fanik\u016fm ropy a ekologick\u00fdm katastrof\u00e1m. Nejlep\u0161\u00ed mo\u017enost\u00ed je m\u00edsto toho zabavit \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 tankery a pot\u00e9 ropu p\u0159esm\u011brovat do zem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 \u010del\u00ed jej\u00edmu nedostatku. \u00cdr\u00e1n m\u00e1 mo\u017enost deaktivovat GPS sledov\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00fdch lod\u00ed (st\u00ednov\u00e1 flotila), ale to by mu nepomohlo obej\u00edt komplexn\u00ed americkou blok\u00e1du.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Jin\u00fdmi slovy, tvrd\u00edm, \u017ee USA by mohly obr\u00e1tit situaci s \u00cdr\u00e1nem a zneu\u017e\u00edt jeho z\u00e1vislosti na Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu proti n\u011bmu. S \u00edr\u00e1nskou ekonomikou v trosk\u00e1ch u\u017e zem\u011b nebude moci nakupovat rakety ani drony pro dopl\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1sob z Ruska a \u010c\u00edny. Nebude schopna platit za logistick\u00e9 zdroje pro svou arm\u00e1du a nebude schopna potla\u010dit ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 nepokoje.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1nci by byli nuceni k jedn\u00e1n\u00edm a v\u00e1lka by skon\u010dila rychle, s minim\u00e1ln\u00edm rizikem pro americk\u00e9 jednotky. Toto je podle m\u011b jedin\u00e1 mo\u017enost, jak obnovit norm\u00e1l na energetick\u00fdch trz\u00edch b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f a z\u00e1rove\u0148 zabr\u00e1nit glob\u00e1ln\u00ed krizi. Trump by m\u011bl v\u0161echny v\u00fdzvy k dlouhodob\u00e9 pozemn\u00ed okupaci vn\u00edmat s podez\u0159en\u00edm; takov\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 nasazen\u00ed nen\u00ed nutn\u00e9. V\u00e1lku lze rychle rozhodnout ekonomick\u00fdmi prost\u0159edky.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8c57238 quelle dc-has-condition dc-condition-empty elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"8c57238\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alt-market.us\/global-energy-crisis-or-iranian-surrender-in-five-weeks\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed energetick\u00e9 trhy naposledy za\u017eily \u0161ok srovnateln\u00fd s t\u00edm, kter\u00e9mu m\u016f\u017eeme \u010delit letos, b\u011bhem arabsk\u00e9ho&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":102544,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[285,38,1503,371,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103640"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=103640"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103640\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/102544"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=103640"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=103640"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=103640"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}