{"id":103637,"date":"2026-04-03T00:14:46","date_gmt":"2026-04-02T22:14:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=103637"},"modified":"2026-04-02T10:42:06","modified_gmt":"2026-04-02T08:42:06","slug":"napomocne-kracime-do-treti-svetove-valky-varuje-doug-macgregor-pred-globalni-eskalaci","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/04\/03\/napomocne-kracime-do-treti-svetove-valky-varuje-doug-macgregor-pred-globalni-eskalaci\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201eN\u00e1pomocn\u011b kr\u00e1\u010d\u00edme do t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky,\u201c varuje Doug Macgregor p\u0159ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed eskalac\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Sv\u011bt nev\u011bdom\u011b, ale z\u00e1ke\u0159n\u011b sm\u011b\u0159uje k velk\u00e9 v\u00e1lce \u2013 to je \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed varov\u00e1n\u00ed b\u00fdval\u00e9ho americk\u00e9ho plukovn\u00edka Douga Macgregora. Ve sv\u00e9 anal\u00fdze vykresluje bez\u00fat\u011b\u0161n\u00fd obraz geopolitick\u00e9 situace, v n\u00ed\u017e se prol\u00edn\u00e1 n\u011bkolik konflikt\u016f a politick\u00e9 elity podstupuj\u00ed rizika, jejich\u017e d\u016fsledky by samy jen st\u011b\u017e\u00ed unesly.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Macgregor vid\u00ed paralely s p\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdm obdob\u00edm p\u0159ed rokem 1914: mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed syst\u00e9m, v n\u011bm\u017e \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 velk\u00e1 mocnost ve skute\u010dnosti nechce sv\u011btovou v\u00e1lku \u2013 ale v\u0161echny jsou p\u0159ipraveny podniknout kroky, kter\u00e9 by k n\u00ed mohly v\u00e9st. Z\u00e1sadn\u00edm rozd\u00edlem dnes je v\u0161ak existence jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed. Ty sice br\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 v\u00e1lce, ale posouvaj\u00ed konflikty do oblasti \u201epod jadern\u00fdm prahem\u201c, kde je p\u0159esto mo\u017en\u00e1 obrovsk\u00e1 destrukce.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"N\u00e1m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dnost do t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky | Doug Macgregor | S\u00e9rie rozhovor\u016f o t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/-GzxgjjRuY4?feature=oembed\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">J\u00e1drem jeho anal\u00fdzy je v\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b, kterou ozna\u010duje za um\u011ble vytvo\u0159en\u00fd konflikt. Podle n\u011bj by k t\u00e9to v\u00e1lce nedo\u0161lo bez z\u00e1padn\u00ed intervence a politick\u00e9 orientace Kyjeva proti Rusku. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 Z\u00e1pad obvi\u0148uje ze \u0161patn\u00e9ho odhadu vojensk\u00e9 reality: Rusko se nezhroutilo ani ekonomicky, ani vojensky, ale masivn\u011b roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ilo sv\u00e9 pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 a vojensk\u00e9 kapacity. Sankce nedos\u00e1hly o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9ho efektu, zat\u00edmco z\u00e1padn\u00ed spole\u010dnosti st\u00e1le v\u00edce ztr\u00e1cej\u00ed vnit\u0159n\u00ed stabilitu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Macgregor kritizuje p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm politick\u00e9 \u010dinitele v Evrop\u011b a USA. Podle jeho n\u00e1zoru \u017eij\u00ed ve \u201efantastick\u00e9m paraleln\u00edm sv\u011bt\u011b\u201c, kter\u00fd se vyzna\u010duje aroganc\u00ed, chybn\u00fdmi kalkulacemi a zbo\u017en\u00fdm p\u0159\u00e1n\u00edm. P\u0159edpoklad, \u017ee Rusko neeskaluje nebo se nakonec nezhrout\u00ed, je nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd a mohl by v\u00e9st k p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 konfrontaci.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Dal\u0161\u00edm kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm bodem jeho anal\u00fdzy je rostouc\u00ed odd\u011blen\u00ed populace od politick\u00e9ho veden\u00ed. Rozhodnut\u00ed o v\u00e1lce a m\u00edru se ji\u017e ne\u010din\u00ed v z\u00e1jmu v\u011bt\u0161iny, ale mal\u00fdmi mocensk\u00fdmi elitami ovlivn\u011bn\u00fdmi ekonomick\u00fdmi z\u00e1jmy a obrovsk\u00fdm bohatstv\u00edm. To podkop\u00e1v\u00e1 demokracii, zat\u00edmco geopolitick\u00e9 strategie jsou st\u00e1le v\u00edce \u0159\u00edzeny finan\u010dn\u00edmi a mocensko-politick\u00fdmi kalkuly.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Jeho hodnocen\u00ed se st\u00e1v\u00e1 obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b v\u00fdbu\u0161n\u00fdm, pokud jde o Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod. Podle jeho n\u00e1zoru by v\u00e1lka mezi Izraelem a \u00cdr\u00e1nem mohla vyvolat glob\u00e1ln\u00ed eskalaci. Takov\u00fd konflikt by nez\u016fstal region\u00e1ln\u00ed, ale nevyhnuteln\u011b by zahrnoval Rusko a \u010c\u00ednu. Ob\u011b zem\u011b maj\u00ed v regionu strategick\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy a vojenskou p\u0159\u00edtomnost a nebudou ne\u010dinn\u011b p\u0159ihl\u00ed\u017eet, pokud by byl \u00cdr\u00e1n vojensky zni\u010den.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Macgregor varuje, \u017ee mnoz\u00ed ve Washingtonu a Evrop\u011b situaci zcela \u0161patn\u011b odhaduj\u00ed. P\u0159edstava, \u017ee lze v\u00e9st nebo kontrolovat omezenou v\u00e1lku, je nebezpe\u010dn\u00e1 iluze. Jakmile takov\u00fd konflikt za\u010dne, m\u016f\u017ee se rychle eskalovat a vymknout kontrole.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Poukazuje tak\u00e9 na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed posun v rozlo\u017een\u00ed moci. Zat\u00edmco Z\u00e1pad se pova\u017euje za dominantn\u00ed s\u00edlu, velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st sv\u011bta \u2013 zejm\u00e9na st\u00e1ty glob\u00e1ln\u00edho Jihu \u2013 m\u00e1 politicky a ekonomicky bl\u00ed\u017ee Rusku, \u010c\u00edn\u011b a \u00cdr\u00e1nu. V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho konfliktu by proto Z\u00e1pad byl mnohem m\u00e9n\u011b schopen jednat izolovan\u011b, ne\u017e se \u010dasto p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b p\u016fsobiv\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st jeho anal\u00fdzy se t\u00fdk\u00e1 ekonomick\u00fdch d\u016fsledk\u016f takov\u00e9ho sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e. I bez pou\u017eit\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed by glob\u00e1ln\u00ed konflikt mohl v\u00e1\u017en\u011b zas\u00e1hnout z\u00e1padn\u00ed ekonomiky: obchodn\u00ed \u0159et\u011bzce by se zhroutily, ceny energi\u00ed by prudce vzrostly a \u017eivotn\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 by prudce klesla. V\u00e1lka by proto mohla b\u00fdt zni\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed nejen vojensky, ale i ekonomicky.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Macgregor tak\u00e9 poukazuje na to, \u017ee velk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky v historii \u010dasto nevznikaly z jasn\u00fdch rozhodnut\u00ed, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e eskalovaly ud\u00e1lostmi, chybn\u00fdmi v\u00fdpo\u010dty nebo \u00famysln\u011b zmanipulovan\u00fdmi incidenty. P\u0159\u00edklady jako Pearl Harbor nebo Tonkinsk\u00fd z\u00e1liv podle jeho n\u00e1zoru ukazuj\u00ed, jak byly konflikty politicky instrumentalizov\u00e1ny nebo vyvol\u00e1ny konkr\u00e9tn\u00edmi ud\u00e1lostmi.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Jeho varov\u00e1n\u00ed je jasn\u00e9: I dnes existuje nebezpe\u010d\u00ed takov\u00e9 eskalace \u2013 nap\u0159\u00edklad v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b incidentu na mo\u0159i v Rud\u00e9m mo\u0159i, St\u0159edozemn\u00edm mo\u0159i nebo Indick\u00e9m oce\u00e1nu. Jedin\u00e1 ud\u00e1lost by mohla sta\u010dit k vyvol\u00e1n\u00ed \u0159et\u011bzov\u00e9 reakce, kter\u00e1 povede k velk\u00e9 v\u00e1lce.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Jeho \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed poselstv\u00ed v kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1: Sv\u011bt se ji\u017e nach\u00e1z\u00ed ve f\u00e1zi mnoha konflikt\u016f, kter\u00e9 by mohly kdykoli p\u0159er\u016fst ve v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1lku. Ne proto, \u017ee by si to n\u011bkdo v\u011bdom\u011b p\u0159\u00e1l, ale proto, \u017ee politick\u00e1 rozhodnut\u00ed, chybn\u00e9 v\u00fdpo\u010dty a strategick\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy st\u00e1le v\u00edce vedou k eskalaci.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Nebo, jak to Macgregor v\u00fdsti\u017en\u011b vyj\u00e1d\u0159il: <\/span><span dir=\"auto\">Nejnebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1lka je ta, do kter\u00e9 se zapletete, ani\u017e byste ji skute\u010dn\u011b cht\u011bli bojovat.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1185\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/kuryr-podpis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"24\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sv\u011bt nev\u011bdom\u011b, ale z\u00e1ke\u0159n\u011b sm\u011b\u0159uje k velk\u00e9 v\u00e1lce \u2013 to je \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed varov\u00e1n\u00ed b\u00fdval\u00e9ho americk\u00e9ho&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":81308,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,276,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103637"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=103637"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103637\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/81308"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=103637"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=103637"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=103637"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}