{"id":103414,"date":"2026-04-01T00:12:09","date_gmt":"2026-03-31T22:12:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=103414"},"modified":"2026-03-31T11:58:13","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T09:58:13","slug":"o-selhani-strategie-sok-a-uzas-v-iranu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/04\/01\/o-selhani-strategie-sok-a-uzas-v-iranu\/","title":{"rendered":"O selh\u00e1n\u00ed strategie \u201e\u0160ok a \u00fa\u017eas\u201c v \u00cdr\u00e1nu"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Sergej Poletajev (\u00a0<\/span>citov\u00e1n zde<\/span><\/a>\u00a0)\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>p\u00ed\u0161e<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0v\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>RT<\/span><\/em>\u00a0\u00a0o\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>doktr\u00edn\u011b \u201e\u0160oku a \u00fa\u017easu\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0:<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko tak\u00e9 podlehlo my\u0161lence doktr\u00edny \u201e\u0160ok a \u00fa\u017eas\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Po v\u00e1lce s Gruzi\u00ed v roce 2008 byla rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da restrukturalizov\u00e1na tak, aby umo\u017e\u0148ovala rychl\u00e9 a destruktivn\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 intervence. Rusko v\u0161ak bylo prvn\u00ed zem\u00ed, kter\u00e1 tuto doktr\u00ednu nedodr\u017eela. Na ja\u0159e roku 2022 st\u00e1lo p\u0159ed kl\u00ed\u010dovou volbou: v\u00e9st v\u00e1\u017enou, krvavou vyhlazovac\u00ed v\u00e1lku, nebo se spokojit s ostudn\u00fdm m\u00edrem. Moskva si zvolila v\u00e1lku a ukrajinsk\u00fd konflikt nyn\u00ed vstoupil do sv\u00e9ho p\u00e1t\u00e9ho roku.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Trump se nyn\u00ed nach\u00e1z\u00ed na podobn\u00e9 k\u0159i\u017eovatce: bojovat, nebo p\u0159iznat por\u00e1\u017eku. Probl\u00e9m je v tom, \u017ee cel\u00fd z\u00e1padn\u00ed vojensko-pr\u016fmyslov\u00fd komplex byl po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed zam\u011b\u0159en na doktr\u00ednu \u201e\u0161oku a \u00fa\u017easu\u201c; NATO a USA disponuj\u00ed bezkonkuren\u010dn\u00edmi a extr\u00e9mn\u011b drah\u00fdmi leteck\u00fdmi \u00fadery, ale t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdmi jin\u00fdmi zdroji. Pokud napaden\u00e1 zem\u011b p\u0159e\u017eije po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed leteck\u00e9 \u00fadery, \u010das bude na jej\u00ed stran\u011b \u2013 na rozd\u00edl od Ruska Z\u00e1pad postr\u00e1d\u00e1 kapacitu pro dlouhodobou vojenskou operaci.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

To vysv\u011btluje \u201egesta dobr\u00e9 v\u016fle\u201c, kter\u00e1 Trump v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b v\u016f\u010di \u00cdr\u00e1nu projevuje. Stejn\u011b jako Putin na ja\u0159e roku 2022 si mus\u00ed koupit \u010das a napl\u00e1novat sv\u016fj dal\u0161\u00ed krok: pokra\u010dovat v boji, zah\u00e1jit extr\u00e9mn\u011b riskantn\u00ed oboj\u017eivelnou vylo\u010fovac\u00ed operaci nebo se spokojit s poni\u017euj\u00edc\u00edm m\u00edrem. Prvn\u00ed mo\u017enost by mohla b\u00fdt pro Trumpa v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch volb\u00e1ch v polovin\u011b volebn\u00edho obdob\u00ed katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed, zat\u00edmco druh\u00e1 by mohla USA zp\u016fsobit nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed strategickou por\u00e1\u017eku od v\u00e1lky ve Vietnamu.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Koment\u00e1tor MoA \u201eEnglish Outsider\u201c odpov\u00edd\u00e1: (V\u0161imn\u011bte si pros\u00edm, \u017ee pou\u017eil \u201emy\u201c v uvozovk\u00e1ch. Zjevn\u011b se t\u00edm nepo\u010d\u00edtaj\u00ed \u010dten\u00e1\u0159i MoA.)<\/span><\/p>\n

Srovn\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00e1lky s Ruskem a v\u00e1lky s \u00cdr\u00e1nem ze strany RT m\u00e1 sv\u00e9 opodstatn\u011bn\u00ed. V obou p\u0159\u00edpadech Z\u00e1pad vstoupil do v\u00e1lky jako do hazardu. O\u010dek\u00e1vali jsme, \u017ee Rusov\u00e9 okam\u017eit\u011b podlehnou na\u0161im \u201e\u0161okov\u00fdm a \u00fa\u017easn\u00fdm\u201c sankc\u00edm; a o\u010dek\u00e1vali jsme, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1nci okam\u017eit\u011b podlehnou na\u0161emu po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00edmu \u201e\u0161okov\u00e9mu a \u00fa\u017easn\u00e9mu\u201c \u00fatoku.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

To byly na\u0161e pl\u00e1ny A a nem\u011bli jsme p\u0159ipraven\u00e9 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny B. V obou p\u0159\u00edpadech jsme p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dali, \u017ee nebudou pot\u0159eba. V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b \u00cdr\u00e1nu vid\u00edme samotn\u00e9ho Trumpa zmaten\u00e9ho z toho, \u017ee pl\u00e1n A nefungoval. \u0158\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee selh\u00e1n\u00ed nebylo p\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00e9, a te\u010f nev\u00ed, co d\u011blat, proto\u017ee se stalo.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Oba \u00fatoky \u2013 sank\u010dn\u00ed v\u00e1lka proti Rusku a bleskov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu \u2013 byly proto t\u00edm, co voj\u00e1ci naz\u00fdvaj\u00ed operacemi \u201ev\u0161echno nebo nic\u201c. Sofistikovan\u011bji \u0159e\u010deno: Ob\u011b v\u00e1lky byly s\u00e1zkami, kter\u00e9 jsme museli vyhr\u00e1t, proto\u017ee d\u016fsledky ne\u00fasp\u011bchu by byly katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n

Srovn\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b s v\u00e1lkou s \u00cdr\u00e1nem ze strany RT je tedy do jist\u00e9 m\u00edry opr\u00e1vn\u011bn\u00e9. Nen\u00ed to v\u0161ak srovn\u00e1n\u00ed zcela rovnocenn\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusov\u00e9 m\u011bli v\u017edycky na v\u00fdb\u011br. Pro \u00cdr\u00e1nce existovala jen jedna mo\u017enost: bojovat se v\u0161\u00edm, co m\u011bli, proto\u017ee pokud by to neud\u011blali, hrozilo by jim okam\u017eit\u00e9 zni\u010den\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Toto srovn\u00e1n\u00ed selh\u00e1v\u00e1 i p\u0159i zohledn\u011bn\u00ed dne\u0161n\u00edch postoj\u016f Ruska a \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Rusko m\u00e1 st\u00e1le p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost obratn\u011b ovlivnit kone\u010dn\u00fd v\u00fdsledek v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b. Rusov\u00e9 se p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 nezab\u00fdvaj\u00ed t\u00edm, jak ukon\u010d\u00ed vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed Ukrajiny jako \u00fato\u010dn\u00e9ho psa Z\u00e1padu \u2013 pokud to tak \u010di onak ukon\u010d\u00ed. \u00cdr\u00e1nci si tento luxus nemohou dovolit. Mus\u00ed jednou prov\u017edy skoncovat se z\u00e1padn\u00ed moc\u00ed na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b. Moc dob\u0159e v\u011bd\u00ed, \u017ee jinak se pozd\u011bji vr\u00e1t\u00edme.<\/span><\/p>\n

Srovn\u00e1n\u00ed RT selh\u00e1v\u00e1 i v dal\u0161\u00edm d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9m bod\u011b: na \u00farovni PR.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mluv\u00edme velkolep\u011b o \u201eZ\u00e1pad\u011b\u201c, \u201eUSA\u201c nebo \u201eBruselu\u201c, jako bychom se zab\u00fdvali sjednocen\u00fdmi entitami. To samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nen\u00ed pravda. Vid\u00edme relativn\u011b malou skupinu politik\u016f, z\u00e1jmov\u00fdch skupin a frakc\u00ed, kter\u00e9 ovl\u00e1daj\u00ed politick\u00e1, administrativn\u00ed a vojensk\u00e1 mocensk\u00e1 centra Z\u00e1padu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato kontrola je bezv\u00fdznamn\u00e1, dokud si tito politici nez\u00edskaj\u00ed souhlas \u2013 ne-li podporu \u2013 obyvatelstva, kter\u00e9mu vl\u00e1dnou. Toho lze dos\u00e1hnout pouze tehdy, pokud je ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed ovlivn\u011bno v jejich prosp\u011bch.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tak tomu bylo i v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b. V z\u00e1padn\u00edch spole\u010dnostech v\u011bd\u011blo jen miziv\u011b mal\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed lid\u00ed, jak\u00e1 je skute\u010dn\u00e1 situace na Ukrajin\u011b. V\u011bt\u0161ina z n\u00e1s v\u011b\u0159ila \u2013 a st\u00e1le v\u011b\u0159\u00ed \u2013, \u017ee tato v\u00e1lka vypukla proto, \u017ee rusk\u00fd dikt\u00e1tor vyu\u017eil p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti k obnoven\u00ed star\u00e9 sov\u011btsk\u00e9 \u010di carsk\u00e9 \u0159\u00ed\u0161e. Neznal jsem nikoho v Anglii ani v N\u011bmecku, kdo by to vid\u011bl jinak. Neznal jsem nikoho, kdo by nev\u011b\u0159il, \u017ee bychom se proti tomuto dikt\u00e1torovi m\u011bli postavit v\u0161\u00ed silou. Mal\u00e1 skupina z\u00e1padn\u00edch politik\u016f se proto t\u011b\u0161ila nad\u0161en\u00e9 podpo\u0159e velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti populace.<\/span><\/p>\n

V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b v\u00e1lky v \u00cdr\u00e1nu byla situace jin\u00e1. Pokud jde o p\u0159\u00edpravy na ob\u011b v\u00e1lky, jen velmi m\u00e1lo z n\u00e1s nap\u0159\u00edklad v\u011bd\u011blo o extr\u00e9mn\u00edch zv\u011brstvech sp\u00e1chan\u00fdch b\u011bhem ATO. Pokud se \u010dlov\u011bk \u00fapln\u011b nevyh\u00fdbal obrazovk\u00e1m, o zv\u011brstvech v Gaze v\u011bd\u011bl ka\u017ed\u00fd. Na za\u010d\u00e1tku t\u011bchto v\u00e1lek jen m\u00e1lo z n\u00e1s v\u011bd\u011bl, jak\u00e1 byla skute\u010dn\u00e1 situace pod\u00e9l kontaktn\u00ed linie v \u00fanoru 2022. V roce 2026 v\u0161ak v\u0161ichni v\u011bd\u011bli, \u017ee Z\u00e1pad b\u011bhem prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edch m\u00edrov\u00fdch jedn\u00e1n\u00ed zah\u00e1jil n\u00e1siln\u00fd \u00fatok na \u00cdr\u00e1n.<\/span><\/p>\n

PR klima je tedy v obou p\u0159\u00edpadech zcela odli\u0161n\u00e9. Zat\u00edmco v roce 2022 jsme z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti volali po tvrd\u00e9m zach\u00e1zen\u00ed s Ruskem, v roce 2026 jsou mnoz\u00ed (v\u010detn\u011b \u010d\u00e1sti Trumpovy z\u00e1kladny MAGA) rozhodn\u011b proti v\u00e1lce s \u00cdr\u00e1nem. V z\u00e1padn\u00edch spole\u010dnostech nav\u00edc rostou obavy ohledn\u011b nasazen\u00fdch zdroj\u016f a ekonomick\u00fdch d\u016fsledk\u016f t\u00e9to v\u00e1lky.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159esto\u017ee politici a z\u00e1jmov\u00e9 skupiny p\u0159ikl\u00e1daj\u00ed mal\u00fd v\u00fdznam tomu, zda je v\u00e1lka \u201espravedliv\u00e1\u201c, v\u011bt\u0161ina oby\u010dejn\u00fdch ob\u010dan\u016f ano.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0V roce 2022 jsme si t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u0161ichni mysleli, \u017ee vedeme spravedlivou v\u00e1lku proti Rusku. Dnes jen m\u00e1lokdo v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee vedeme spravedlivou v\u00e1lku proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Tento posun ve ve\u0159ejn\u00e9m m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed nevyhnuteln\u011b vede k v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nc\u016f, pokud vytrvaj\u00ed. \u00cdr\u00e1nci by samoz\u0159ejm\u011b mohli skon\u010dit v radioaktivn\u00ed pou\u0161ti \u2013 ale ani to by pro na\u0161e elity nebylo v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

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Sergej Poletajev (\u00a0citov\u00e1n zde\u00a0)\u00a0\u00a0p\u00ed\u0161e\u00a0\u00a0v\u00a0\u00a0RT\u00a0\u00a0o\u00a0\u00a0doktr\u00edn\u011b \u201e\u0160oku a \u00fa\u017easu\u201c\u00a0: Rusko tak\u00e9 podlehlo my\u0161lence doktr\u00edny \u201e\u0160ok a \u00fa\u017eas\u201c….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":103415,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[2181,38,22,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103414"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=103414"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103414\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/103415"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=103414"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=103414"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=103414"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}