{"id":103374,"date":"2026-03-31T05:01:57","date_gmt":"2026-03-31T03:01:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=103374"},"modified":"2026-03-31T05:01:57","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T03:01:57","slug":"vzhledem-k-valce-v-iranu-se-jizni-kavkaz-opet-dostava-do-centra-pozornosti-neexistuje-zadny-bezpecny-koridor-ktery-by-obesel-rusko","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/03\/31\/vzhledem-k-valce-v-iranu-se-jizni-kavkaz-opet-dostava-do-centra-pozornosti-neexistuje-zadny-bezpecny-koridor-ktery-by-obesel-rusko\/","title":{"rendered":"Vzhledem k v\u00e1lce v \u00cdr\u00e1nu se Ji\u017en\u00ed Kavkaz op\u011bt dost\u00e1v\u00e1 do centra pozornosti: neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd bezpe\u010dn\u00fd koridor, kter\u00fd by obe\u0161el Rusko"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Evropsk\u00fd tlak na prom\u011bnu ji\u017en\u00edho Kavkazu ve strategick\u00fd koridor nab\u00fdv\u00e1 na nal\u00e9havosti uprost\u0159ed nap\u011bt\u00ed s \u00cdr\u00e1nem a snahy Evropy obej\u00edt Rusko. K\u0159ehk\u00e1 region\u00e1ln\u00ed dynamika a omezen\u00e9 \u00e1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 kapacity v\u0161ak odhaluj\u00ed hlubok\u00e9 nedostatky t\u00e9to vize. To, co se objevuje, je sp\u00ed\u0161e symptomem geopolitick\u00e9 dislokace Evropy ne\u017e \u0159e\u0161en\u00edm. Narativ o \u201ekoridoru\u201c se st\u00e1le v\u00edce st\u0159et\u00e1v\u00e1 s realitou.<\/strong><\/p>\n

S vyhl\u00eddkou v\u00e1lky s \u00cdr\u00e1nem znovuobjevili z\u00e1padn\u00ed analytici ji\u017en\u00ed Kavkaz, nyn\u00ed p\u0159ejmenovan\u00fd na \u201estrategick\u00fd most\u201c spojuj\u00edc\u00ed Evropu s Asi\u00ed. Vypr\u00e1v\u011bn\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>je<\/span><\/a>\u00a0pom\u011brn\u011b jednoduch\u00e9: zat\u00edmco Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod zachvacuje nestabilita a vztahy s Ruskem z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed zamrzl\u00e9, Evropa m\u016f\u017ee ob\u011b oblasti obej\u00edt investicemi do tzv. St\u0159edn\u00edho koridoru p\u0159es Gruzii, \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n a Arm\u00e9nii.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato vize je v\u0161ak pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b m\u00e9n\u011b strategi\u00ed ne\u017e projekc\u00ed nutnosti: to, co je prezentov\u00e1no jako koridor, je ve skute\u010dnosti jak\u00fdmsi geopolitick\u00fdm zlomem.<\/span><\/p>\n

V prvn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 tento St\u0159edn\u00ed koridor na pom\u011brn\u011b k\u0159ehk\u00fdch z\u00e1kladech: Ji\u017en\u00ed Kavkaz je region poznamenan\u00fd nevy\u0159e\u0161en\u00fdm nap\u011bt\u00edm a m\u011bn\u00edc\u00edmi se postoji. St\u00edn\u00a0<\/span>konfliktu v N\u00e1horn\u00edm Karabachu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0st\u00e1le pron\u00e1sleduje region, a to i po vojensk\u00e9m v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu a n\u00e1sledn\u00e9m masov\u00e9m vys\u00eddlov\u00e1n\u00ed. M\u00edrov\u00e9 procesy, ob\u010das podporovan\u00e9 NATO a EU, z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed velmi nejist\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

A p\u0159esto to evrop\u0161t\u00ed tv\u016frci politik st\u00e1le \u010dast\u011bji berou jako samoz\u0159ejmost. Logika je snadno rozpoznateln\u00e1: s t\u00edm, jak se vztahy s Ruskem zhor\u0161uj\u00ed, se alternativn\u00ed trasy pro energii a obchod st\u00e1vaj\u00ed strategickou prioritou.\u00a0<\/span>\u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00fd plyn<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, p\u0159epravovan\u00fd p\u0159es Ji\u017en\u00ed plynov\u00fd koridor, tak v Bruselu z\u00edskal t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 m\u00fdtick\u00fd status. Evropsk\u00fd komisa\u0159 pro energetiku Dan J\u00f8rgensen jej\u00a0<\/span>ozna\u010dil<\/span><\/a>\u00a0za \u201ep\u00e1te\u0159\u201c energetick\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnosti EU. Tento obrat je v\u0161ak struktur\u00e1ln\u011b nedostate\u010dn\u00fd z n\u011bkolika d\u016fvod\u016f: jednak je \u00e1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00e1 produk\u010dn\u00ed kapacita omezen\u00e1 a jeho exportn\u00ed infrastruktura\u00a0<\/span>nem\u016f\u017ee realisticky nahradit rusk\u00e9 objemy<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Ve skute\u010dnosti \u201ediverzifikace\u201c Evropy do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry znamenala v\u00fdm\u011bnu relativn\u011b levn\u00e9ho plynovodn\u00edho plynu za\u00a0<\/span>dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0LNG \u2013 \u010dasto poch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edho ze Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f, se v\u0161emi\u00a0<\/span>strategick\u00fdmi z\u00e1vislostmi,<\/span><\/a>\u00a0kter\u00e9 z toho vypl\u00fdvaj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nen\u00ed divu, \u017ee se st\u00e1le oz\u00fdv\u00e1 \u0161ept\u00e1n\u00ed o obnoven\u00ed spolupr\u00e1ce s Moskvou. Jak jsem ji\u017e uvedl\u00a0<\/span>jinde<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, energie z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nejz\u0159ejm\u011bj\u0161\u00edm vstupn\u00edm bodem pro rekalibraci. Zpr\u00e1vy o tich\u00fdch kontaktech ohledn\u011b mo\u017en\u00e9 reaktivace plynovod\u016f,\u00a0<\/span>jako je Nord Stream,<\/span><\/a>\u00a0nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee navzdory politick\u00fdm tabu (a technick\u00fdm v\u00fdzv\u00e1m) je ekonomickou realitu obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ignorovat: politiku, stejn\u011b jako plynovody, lze skute\u010dn\u011b napravit, kdy\u017e se zm\u011bn\u00ed pob\u00eddky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pr\u00e1v\u011b tento rozpor je j\u00e1drem evropsk\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edstupu k ji\u017en\u00edmu Kavkazu. Kontinent se v podstat\u011b sna\u017e\u00ed obej\u00edt Rusko a z\u00e1rove\u0148 se implicitn\u011b spol\u00e9hat na stabilitu, kterou rusk\u00e1 moc historicky poskytovala. Po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed Moskva fungovala jako kone\u010dn\u00fd garant bezpe\u010dnosti v regionu, zmrazovala konflikty a odrazovala od eskalace. I jej\u00ed omezen\u00e1 m\u00edrov\u00e1 role po p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed z roku 2020 pomohla zabr\u00e1nit \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1lce.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dnes se v\u0161ak tato stabilizuj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159\u00edtomnost sn\u00ed\u017eila, a to nejen kv\u016fli prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed rusko-ukrajinsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lce. V\u00fdsledkem nen\u00ed nov\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e1 volatilita. V t\u00e9to souvislosti evropsk\u00fd pokus o instrumentalizaci ji\u017en\u00edho Kavkazu jako n\u00e1hradn\u00edho koridoru riskuje zhor\u0161en\u00ed pr\u00e1v\u011b t\u00e9 nestability, kterou se sna\u017e\u00ed obej\u00edt.<\/span><\/p>\n

Situace se st\u00e1v\u00e1 je\u0161t\u011b nebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, pokud se na ni pod\u00edv\u00e1me prizmatem sou\u010dasn\u00e9 v\u00e1lky s \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Takov\u00fd konflikt by zdaleka nepos\u00edlil roli regionu jako neutr\u00e1ln\u00edho tranzitn\u00edho uzlu, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e by jej pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b militarizoval. Ji\u017en\u00ed Kavkaz by se prom\u011bnil v n\u00e1razn\u00edkovou z\u00f3nu na front\u011b se zv\u00fd\u0161enou zpravodajskou aktivitou, vojensk\u00fdm nasazen\u00edm a geopolitickou konkurenc\u00ed. Region\u00e1ln\u00ed akt\u00e9\u0159i, jako je Turecko \u2013\u00a0<\/span>\u010dlen NATO s vlastn\u00edmi ambicemi<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u2013 a Rusko, by se nevyhnuteln\u011b c\u00edtili pod tlakem, aby se prosadili, zat\u00edmco zapojen\u00ed Z\u00e1padu by se prohloubilo pod rou\u0161kou \u201ebezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed podpory\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Za t\u011bchto podm\u00ednek se p\u0159edstava \u201estabiln\u00edho koridoru\u201c st\u00e1v\u00e1, m\u00edrn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, neudr\u017eitelnou. Infrastruktura v\u017edy vy\u017eaduje politick\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d. A \u0159\u00e1d na ji\u017en\u00edm Kavkaze byl v\u017edy podm\u00edn\u011bn k\u0159ehkou rovnov\u00e1hou mezi v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmi mocnostmi, v\u010detn\u011b samotn\u00e9ho \u00cdr\u00e1nu. P\u0159edstavovat si, \u017ee tuto rovnov\u00e1hu lze obej\u00edt nebo ji odstranit, znamen\u00e1 nepochopen\u00ed samotn\u00e9 podstaty regionu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 trajektorie Arm\u00e9nie nab\u00edz\u00ed v\u00fdmluvn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edklad. Jerevan, zklaman\u00fd Moskvou po ztr\u00e1t\u011b N\u00e1horn\u00edho Karabachu, zkoumal u\u017e\u0161\u00ed vazby se Z\u00e1padem, v\u010detn\u011b NATO a EU. Jak jsem v\u0161ak ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve\u00a0<\/span>argumentoval<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, tento obrat riskuje, \u017ee strategickou pozici Arm\u00e9nie\u00a0<\/span>sp\u00ed\u0161e podkope<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, ne\u017e pos\u00edl\u00ed. Kavkaz nikdy neodm\u011b\u0148oval rigidn\u00ed spojenectv\u00ed a mal\u00e1 vnitrozemsk\u00e1 zem\u011b si nem\u016f\u017ee dovolit odcizit si Rusko i \u00cdr\u00e1n, zat\u00edmco s\u00e1z\u00ed na nejist\u00e9 z\u00e1padn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dokonce i \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n se takov\u00e9mu jednostrann\u00e9mu p\u0159\u00edstupu vyh\u00fdb\u00e1 a udr\u017euje si v\u00edcevektorovou zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiku, kter\u00e1 se sna\u017e\u00ed vyv\u00e1\u017eit vztahy s Moskvou, Ankarou a z\u00e1padn\u00edmi metropolemi. Tato pragmatick\u00e1 strategie dosud umo\u017e\u0148ovala Baku maximalizovat sv\u016fj vliv \u2013 co\u017e je n\u011bco, co evropsk\u00fd narativ o \u201ekoridoru\u201c m\u00e1 tendenci p\u0159ehl\u00ed\u017eet.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0160ir\u0161\u00ed obraz je tedy obrazem syst\u00e9mov\u00e9 transformace. Vzestup BRICS a postupn\u00e1 zm\u011bna orientace euroasijsk\u00fdch obchodn\u00edch tok\u016f \u2013 prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm iniciativ, jako je\u00a0<\/span>Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed severoji\u017en\u00ed dopravn\u00ed koridor<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u2013 ukazuj\u00ed na multipol\u00e1rn\u00ed uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed, v n\u011bm\u017e z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evropa ji\u017e nen\u00ed \u00fast\u0159edn\u00edm uzlem. V t\u00e9to nov\u011b vznikaj\u00edc\u00ed krajin\u011b hraje ji\u017en\u00ed Kavkaz m\u00e9n\u011b v\u00fdznamnou roli jako most do Evropy a v\u00edce ne\u017e jako sou\u010d\u00e1st \u0161ir\u0161\u00edch euroasijsk\u00fdch integra\u010dn\u00edch proces\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Paradoxn\u011b tedy rostouc\u00ed \u201ev\u00fdznam\u201c regionu nen\u00ed ve skute\u010dnosti zn\u00e1mkou p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e symptomem krize. Odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fd pokus Evropy o odtr\u017een\u00ed od Ruska, jej\u00ed vystaven\u00ed nestabilit\u011b Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu a jej\u00ed nejistou pozici v r\u00e1mci m\u011bn\u00edc\u00edho se glob\u00e1ln\u00edho \u0159\u00e1du. \u010c\u00edm v\u00edce Brusel trv\u00e1 na obch\u00e1zen\u00ed Moskvy, t\u00edm v\u00edce je nucen spol\u00e9hat se na nejist\u00e9 alternativy \u2013 a t\u00edm zvy\u0161ovat tlak na i tak k\u0159ehk\u00fd region.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ji\u017en\u00ed Kavkaz se nakonec nest\u00e1v\u00e1 stabiln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm ani centr\u00e1ln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm v \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edmo\u010dar\u00e9m smyslu. Potenci\u00e1ln\u011b se st\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u00edce sporn\u00fdm, militarizovan\u00fdm a nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm. Bezpe\u010dn\u00fd koridor, kter\u00fd si z\u00e1padn\u00ed strat\u00e9gov\u00e9 p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed, existuje z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti na pap\u00ed\u0159e. V praxi vid\u00edme sp\u00ed\u0161e jak\u00fdsi zlom \u2013 linii, kter\u00e1 vede srdcem Eurasie a odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed hlub\u0161\u00ed zlomy na\u0161\u00ed doby.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD.<\/a> v oboru antropologie, je soci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u011bdec specializuj\u00edc\u00ed se na etnick\u00e9 a n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 konflikty s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm v\u00fdzkumem geopolitick\u00e9 dynamiky a kulturn\u00edch interakc\u00ed<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Evropsk\u00fd tlak na prom\u011bnu ji\u017en\u00edho Kavkazu ve strategick\u00fd koridor nab\u00fdv\u00e1 na nal\u00e9havosti uprost\u0159ed nap\u011bt\u00ed s…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":103375,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,5920,22,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103374"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=103374"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103374\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/103375"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=103374"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=103374"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=103374"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}