{"id":103219,"date":"2026-03-30T00:12:33","date_gmt":"2026-03-29T22:12:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=103219"},"modified":"2026-03-29T13:48:49","modified_gmt":"2026-03-29T11:48:49","slug":"dusledky-nove-ropne-krize-nikdy-jsem-nezazil-nic-tak-hrozneho-rikaji-analytici","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/03\/30\/dusledky-nove-ropne-krize-nikdy-jsem-nezazil-nic-tak-hrozneho-rikaji-analytici\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u016fsledky nov\u00e9 ropn\u00e9 krize: \u201eNikdy jsem neza\u017eil nic tak hrozn\u00e9ho,\u201c \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed analytici"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Analytici trhu s ropou pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed drastick\u00e1 slova k popisu rozv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00ed se ropn\u00e9 krize, kter\u00e1 vedla k r\u016fstu cen ropy, benzinu a plynu po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b a v n\u011bkter\u00fdch zem\u00edch ji\u017e vy\u00fastila v p\u0159\u00edd\u011blov\u00fd syst\u00e9m benzinu.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Agentura TASS shrnula sou\u010dasn\u00fd dopad nov\u00e9 ropn\u00e9 krize v \u010dl\u00e1nku, v n\u011bm\u017e tak\u00e9 provedl rozhovory s odborn\u00edky a analytiky. Podle \u010dl\u00e1nku sv\u011bt \u010del\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ropn\u00e9 krizi v historii.\u00a0<\/span>\u010cl\u00e1nek TASSu<\/span><\/u><\/a>\u00a0jsem p\u0159elo\u017eil .<\/span><\/p>\n

Za\u010d\u00e1tek p\u0159ekladu:<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

\u201eTakov\u00e9 kolapsy se je\u0161t\u011b nikdy nestaly\u201c: Jak ropn\u00e1 krize su\u017euje sv\u011bt<\/span><\/h2>\n

Energetick\u00e1 krize vyvolan\u00e1 eskalac\u00ed na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b by se mohla zapsat do historie jako \u201enejhor\u0161\u00ed no\u010dn\u00ed m\u016fra ka\u017ed\u00e9ho analytika ropn\u00e9ho trhu\u201c. S t\u00edmto hodnocen\u00edm hlavn\u00edho ekonoma BP Garetha Ramsayho souhlas\u00ed mnoho analytik\u016f. Agentura TASS uv\u00e1d\u00ed, kter\u00e9 zem\u011b ji\u017e poci\u0165uj\u00ed dopady t\u0159\u00edt\u00fddenn\u00ed konfrontace mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem, USA a Izraelem.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eNikdy jsem neza\u017eil nic tak hrozn\u00e9ho,\u201c p\u0159iznal Paul Sankey, hlavn\u00ed energetick\u00fd konzultant v poradensk\u00e9 firm\u011b Oliver Wyman. \u201eJak nahrad\u00edme v\u0161echen tenhle plyn, v\u0161echnu tuhle ropu, v\u0161echno tohle h\u00e9lium?\u201c zeptal se \u0159e\u010dnicky. Podle expert\u016f k takov\u00e9mu nedostatku dod\u00e1vek nikdy p\u0159edt\u00edm nedo\u0161lo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Asie m\u00e1 rezervy na jeden a\u017e dva m\u011bs\u00edce<\/span><\/h3>\n

Pokud bude konflikt pokra\u010dovat, rezervy zem\u00ed z\u00e1visl\u00fdch na dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch z Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu vydr\u017e\u00ed pouze jeden a\u017e dva m\u011bs\u00edce, varoval Kyle Shostak, \u0159editel americk\u00e9 investi\u010dn\u00ed firmy Navigator Principal Investors. Podle n\u011bj se to t\u00fdk\u00e1 zejm\u00e9na Indie, Banglad\u00e9\u0161e, Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreje, P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu a Japonska. \u201eV\u011bt\u0161ina rezerv t\u011bchto zem\u00ed vydr\u017e\u00ed jeden a\u017e dva m\u011bs\u00edce, ne\u017e se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee jejich ekonomiky sklouznou do recese ji\u017e ve druh\u00e9m \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed leto\u0161n\u00edho roku kv\u016fli poklesu dom\u00e1c\u00ed produkce, kter\u00e1 vy\u017eaduje energii,\u201c \u0159ekl expert agentu\u0159e TASS.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0160ostak dodal, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna je v\u00fdjimkou, proto\u017ee \u201ejej\u00ed rekordn\u00ed z\u00e1soby zaru\u010duj\u00ed nez\u00e1vislost dom\u00e1c\u00ed produkce po dobu p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b \u0161esti m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Filip\u00edny mezit\u00edm vyhl\u00e1sily stav nouze kv\u016fli nedostatku pohonn\u00fdch hmot. Dekret podepsan\u00fd prezidentem Ferdinandem Marcosem Jr. uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee zem\u011b je siln\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na dovozu energie a \u017ee naru\u0161en\u00ed dodavatelsk\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u016f zp\u016fsoben\u00e9 prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed eskalac\u00ed, zna\u010dnou volatilitou a rostouc\u00edmi sv\u011btov\u00fdmi cenami ropy \u201eohro\u017euj\u00ed energetickou bezpe\u010dnost zem\u011b\u201c. Filip\u00ednsk\u00e1 ministryn\u011b energetiky Sharon Garinov\u00e1 uvedla, \u017ee z\u00e1soby pohonn\u00fdch hmot jsou dostate\u010dn\u00e9 p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b na 45 dn\u00ed. Prvn\u00ed z\u00e1silka rusk\u00e9 ropy za p\u011bt let dorazila do zem\u011b 24. b\u0159ezna.<\/span><\/p>\n

Japonsko za\u010dalo 16. b\u0159ezna uvol\u0148ovat na trh \u010d\u00e1st sv\u00fdch strategick\u00fdch ropn\u00fdch rezerv. Premi\u00e9rka Sanae Takai\u010di ve st\u0159edu b\u011bhem setk\u00e1n\u00ed s \u0161\u00e9fem Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed energetick\u00e9 agentury (IEA) navrhla, aby byla z rezerv uvoln\u011bna dal\u0161\u00ed ropa jako nouzov\u00e9 opat\u0159en\u00ed ke stabilizaci situace. \u201eAsijsk\u00e9 zem\u011b jsou v obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 situaci,\u201c zd\u016fraznila.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kv\u016fli krizi se n\u011bkter\u00e9 asijsk\u00e9 zem\u011b st\u00e1le \u010dast\u011bji vracej\u00ed k uhl\u00ed, aby zabr\u00e1nily v\u00fdpadk\u016fm proudu a ochr\u00e1nily sv\u00e9 obyvatelstvo p\u0159ed drastick\u00fdmi cenov\u00fdmi \u0161oky. Nap\u0159\u00edklad jihokorejsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da zru\u0161ila omezen\u00ed v\u00fdroby elekt\u0159iny z uheln\u00fdch elektr\u00e1ren, Thajsko se p\u0159ipravuje na restart dvou uheln\u00fdch elektr\u00e1ren, kter\u00e9 byly loni odstaveny, a obyvatel\u00e9 Indie za\u010dali nahrazovat kuchy\u0148sk\u00fd plyn uhl\u00edm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dom\u00e1cnosti v EU pod tlakem<\/span><\/h3>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed eskalace konfliktu na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b by mohla vyvolat \u201evleklou energetickou krizi s extr\u00e9mn\u011b v\u00e1\u017en\u00fdmi d\u016fsledky,\u201c uvedla mluv\u010d\u00ed \u0161pan\u011blsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy Elma Saiz. Domn\u00edv\u00e1 se, \u017ee je nezbytn\u00e9 proti n\u00ed podniknout rozhodn\u00e9 kroky. \u201eKonflikt dosud st\u00e1l v\u0161echny \u0160pan\u011bly p\u011bt miliard eur, kter\u00e9 mus\u00edme pou\u017e\u00edt ke zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed d\u016fsledk\u016f t\u00e9to v\u00e1lky, kter\u00e1 poru\u0161uje mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed pr\u00e1vo, a kter\u00e9 nem\u016f\u017eeme pou\u017e\u00edt k jin\u00fdm \u00fa\u010del\u016fm,\u201c zd\u016fraznila.<\/span><\/p>\n

Francouzsk\u00fd ministr hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed a financ\u00ed Roland Lescure ozna\u010dil ud\u00e1losti za \u201enov\u00fd \u0161ok v cen\u00e1ch ropy\u201c. Dodal, \u017ee pokud \u0161ok potrv\u00e1 d\u00e9le ne\u017e n\u011bkolik t\u00fddn\u016f, krize by se mohla v\u00fdrazn\u011b roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it na celou ekonomiku a st\u00e1t se \u201esyst\u00e9movou\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nizozemsk\u00fd ministr financ\u00ed Eelko Heijnen prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee se vl\u00e1da p\u0159ipravuje na v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 ot\u0159esy. Podle Heijnena jsou mo\u017enosti zem\u011b ji\u017e tak omezen\u00e9: Vl\u00e1da \u010del\u00ed b\u011bhem jarn\u00edho p\u0159ezkumu rozpo\u010dtu, kter\u00fd se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 28. b\u0159ezna, zna\u010dn\u00fdm dodate\u010dn\u00fdm v\u00fddaj\u016fm, \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b kv\u016fli rostouc\u00edmu po\u010dtu lid\u00ed pob\u00edraj\u00edc\u00edch invalidn\u00ed d\u016fchody. \u201eNem\u00e1me t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u017e\u00e1dnou z\u00e1chrannou s\u00ed\u0165,\u201c uzav\u0159el.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle \u0159eck\u00e9ho finan\u010dn\u00edho port\u00e1lu capital.gr sn\u00ed\u017eil Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00fd fond (MMF) svou progn\u00f3zu r\u016fstu \u0158ecka v roce 2026 z 2 procent na 1,8 procenta. MMF uvedl, \u017ee a\u010dkoliv kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd v\u00fdhled zem\u011b z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edzniv\u00fd, vlekl\u00fd konflikt na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b by mohl zat\u00ed\u017eit dom\u00e1c\u00ed i zahrani\u010dn\u00ed popt\u00e1vku a oslabit p\u0159\u00edliv kapit\u00e1lu. Vl\u00e1da 23. b\u0159ezna p\u0159edstavila bal\u00ed\u010dek pomoci ve v\u00fd\u0161i 300 milion\u016f eur na \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed energetick\u00e9 krize, kter\u00fd vstoup\u00ed v platnost 1. dubna a z\u016fstane v platnosti nejm\u00e9n\u011b do 31. kv\u011btna.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kirill Dmitriev, zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed vyslanec rusk\u00e9ho prezidenta pro investice a hospod\u00e1\u0159skou spolupr\u00e1ci se zahrani\u010d\u00edm a \u0161\u00e9f Rusk\u00e9ho fondu p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdch investic, p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bl, \u017ee dal\u0161\u00ed zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed cen energi\u00ed a surovin bude m\u00edt v\u00fdznamn\u00fd dopad na ekonomiku a urychl\u00ed inflaci. Domn\u00edv\u00e1 se, \u017ee EU bude zasa\u017eena nejv\u00edce, \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b kv\u016fli odm\u00edtnut\u00ed dovozu rusk\u00e9ho plynu. Dmitriev odhaduje dosavadn\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty EU na v\u00edce ne\u017e 1,5 bilionu eur a p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1, \u017ee do konce roku 2026 by tyto ztr\u00e1ty mohly p\u0159es\u00e1hnout 3 biliony eur, proto\u017ee se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee ceny plynu vzrostou p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 100 procent.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nedostatek dod\u00e1vek v USA, deficity v Africe a Austr\u00e1lii<\/span><\/h3>\n

Podle Wall Street Journal hroz\u00ed, \u017ee se d\u016fsledky energetick\u00e9 krize rychle roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed do USA a dal\u0161\u00edch region\u016f. Ceny benzinu v USA ji\u017e dos\u00e1hly nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b od roku 2022. \u201eNaru\u0161en\u00ed (dod\u00e1vek benzinu) je tak z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee pokud se situace brzy nezm\u011bn\u00ed, budeme panika\u0159it,\u201c cituj\u00ed noviny analytika energetick\u00e9ho trhu Helge Andre Martinsena.<\/span><\/p>\n

Spole\u010dnost Chevron, jedna z nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch americk\u00fdch ropn\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed, varuje p\u0159ed hroz\u00edc\u00ed energetickou kriz\u00ed v Kalifornii. Podle agentury Bloomberg je to proto, \u017ee st\u00e1t z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1 asi 20 procent sv\u00e9ho paliva z asijsk\u00fdch zem\u00ed. Kalifornie nen\u00ed propojena s hlavn\u00edmi americk\u00fdmi energetick\u00fdmi uzly Texasu a Louisiany. Krom\u011b toho muselo v posledn\u00edch letech kv\u016fli rostouc\u00edm n\u00e1klad\u016fm zav\u0159\u00edt n\u011bkolik rafin\u00e9ri\u00ed v Kalifornii. Tyto n\u00e1klady se p\u0159ipisuj\u00ed nov\u00fdm kalifornsk\u00fdm z\u00e1kon\u016fm zam\u011b\u0159en\u00fdm na boj proti zm\u011bn\u011b klimatu, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017eit zisky ropn\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle zpravodajsk\u00e9ho port\u00e1lu African News Feed se ka\u017edodenn\u00ed \u017eivot v Etiopii t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 zastavil kv\u016fli nedostatku benz\u00ednu a nafty. Port\u00e1l uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee nedostatek pohonn\u00fdch hmot vedl k kilometrov\u00fdm front\u00e1m na \u010derpac\u00edch stanic\u00edch a j\u00edzdn\u00e9 ve ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 doprav\u011b se za necel\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc ztrojn\u00e1sobilo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Allan Fels, profesor na Melbournsk\u00e9 univerzit\u011b a b\u00fdval\u00fd \u0161\u00e9f Australsk\u00e9 komise pro hospod\u00e1\u0159skou sout\u011b\u017e a ochranu spot\u0159ebitel\u016f, poznamenal, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edd\u011blov\u00fd syst\u00e9m pohonn\u00fdch hmot by se v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch t\u00fddnech mohl st\u00e1t v Austr\u00e1lii novou realitou. Zd\u016fraznil, \u017ee vl\u00e1da diskutuje o \u201erelativn\u011b um\u00edrn\u011bn\u00fdch opat\u0159en\u00edch\u201c, v\u010detn\u011b p\u0159\u00edd\u011blov\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu k benz\u00ednu na z\u00e1klad\u011b sud\u00fdch a lich\u00fdch registra\u010dn\u00edch zna\u010dek vozidel, po\u017eadavku, aby \u0159idi\u010di jezdili pouze obden, p\u0159echodu na pr\u00e1ci z domova a zaveden\u00ed rychlostn\u00edch limit\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud jde o Rusko, Jurij Stankevi\u010d, m\u00edstop\u0159edseda energetick\u00e9ho v\u00fdboru St\u00e1tn\u00ed dumy, agentu\u0159e TASS \u0159ekl, \u017ee krize na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b v sou\u010dasnosti ovliv\u0148uje Rusko pouze nep\u0159\u00edmo prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm glob\u00e1ln\u00edch cen ropy a ropn\u00fdch produkt\u016f. \u201ePro dom\u00e1c\u00ed dod\u00e1vky neexistuj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 fyzick\u00e1 rizika, ale pr\u00e9mie za geopolitick\u00e1 rizika je ji\u017e v cen\u011b zohledn\u011bna,\u201c \u0159ekl Stankevi\u010d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Konec p\u0159ekladu<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Thomas R\u00f6per<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Analytici trhu s ropou pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed drastick\u00e1 slova k popisu rozv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00ed se ropn\u00e9 krize, kter\u00e1 vedla…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":103220,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,1257,371,276],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103219"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=103219"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103219\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/103220"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=103219"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=103219"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=103219"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}