{"id":103204,"date":"2026-03-29T00:30:07","date_gmt":"2026-03-28T23:30:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=103204"},"modified":"2026-03-28T17:43:33","modified_gmt":"2026-03-28T16:43:33","slug":"alexandre-lemoine-konflikt-na-blizkem-vychode-zvysuje-strategickou-hodnotu-arktidy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/03\/29\/alexandre-lemoine-konflikt-na-blizkem-vychode-zvysuje-strategickou-hodnotu-arktidy\/","title":{"rendered":"Alexandre Lemoine: Konflikt na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b zvy\u0161uje strategickou hodnotu Arktidy"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

V kontextu destabilizace tradi\u010dn\u00edch energetick\u00fdch center nab\u00fdvaj\u00ed zdroje, n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed trasy a infrastruktura Arktidy strategick\u00e9 hodnoty.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Pot\u00e9, co \u00cdr\u00e1n zablokoval v\u011bt\u0161inu n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed dopravy v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu, jednom z kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch energetick\u00fdch koridor\u016f sv\u011bta, hledaj\u00ed v\u00fdvozci ze zem\u00ed Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu nal\u00e9hav\u011b zp\u016fsoby, jak tuto trasu obej\u00edt. Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie a Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty urychlily p\u0159esm\u011brov\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00e9ho exportu na pozemn\u00ed potrub\u00ed, proto\u017ee ani vojensk\u00fd doprovod tanker\u016f\u00a0<\/span>nem\u016f\u017ee zaru\u010dit bezpe\u010dnost<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0pr\u016fjezdu. Tradi\u010dn\u011b touto \u00fazkou \u00fa\u017einou proch\u00e1z\u00ed asi p\u011btina sv\u011btov\u00e9ho obchodu s ropou a zkapaln\u011bn\u00fdm zemn\u00edm plynem.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Prvn\u00ed \u0161ok zas\u00e1hl samotn\u00fd Persk\u00fd z\u00e1liv. Strategick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky jsou v\u0161ak poci\u0165ov\u00e1ny mnohem severn\u011bji.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento posun je na Alja\u0161ce jasn\u011b patrn\u00fd. Projekt\u00a0<\/span>Alaska LNG<\/span><\/a>\u00a0podporovan\u00fd americkou vl\u00e1dou \u00a0pl\u00e1nuje u\u010dinit kone\u010dn\u00e1 investi\u010dn\u00ed rozhodnut\u00ed o v\u00fdstavb\u011b plynovodu letos a za\u010d\u00e1tkem p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edho roku o exportn\u00edm termin\u00e1lu. Prvn\u00ed dod\u00e1vky se o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed do roku 2031. S ud\u00e1vanou kapacitou 20 milion\u016f tun ro\u010dn\u011b a p\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u00fdmi dohodami t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00edmi se p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 13 milion\u016f tun za\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 projekt o\u017eiven\u00ed. Kl\u00ed\u010dovou v\u00fdhodou Alja\u0161ky je to, \u017ee nab\u00edz\u00ed to, co dodavatel\u016fm z Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu chyb\u00ed: p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup na trhy v severov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asii bez nutnosti tranzitu Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato situace je obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 pro Japonsko, Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreu a dal\u0161\u00ed asijsk\u00e9 zem\u011b dov\u00e1\u017eej\u00edc\u00ed energii. Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed japonsk\u00fd energetick\u00fd oper\u00e1tor, JERA, uvedl, \u017ee Alja\u0161ka nab\u00edz\u00ed bl\u00edzkost asijsk\u00fdch center spot\u0159eby a otev\u00edr\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edstup k v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm, dlouho zmrazen\u00fdm plynov\u00fdm pol\u00edm, \u010d\u00edm\u017e p\u0159isp\u00edv\u00e1 k pos\u00edlen\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti LNG. Z \u010dist\u011b komer\u010dn\u00edho projektu se alja\u0161sk\u00fd LNG transformuje v aktivum energetick\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnosti a tato rekonceptualizace prob\u00edh\u00e1 na pozad\u00ed rostouc\u00ed nestability na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdhody Arktidy v\u0161ak nejsou v\u00fdhradn\u011b pro Ameri\u010dany. Rusk\u00fd arktick\u00fd LNG, a\u010dkoli podl\u00e9h\u00e1 sankc\u00edm, z trhu zcela nezmizel. \u010c\u00e1st tohoto plynu nad\u00e1le proud\u00ed k asijsk\u00fdm kupc\u016fm. A zat\u00edmco Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty profituj\u00ed ze zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 popt\u00e1vky po bezpe\u010dn\u00fdch a zabezpe\u010den\u00fdch dopravn\u00edch tras\u00e1ch, rusk\u00e9 arktick\u00e9 projekty tak\u00e9 nab\u00fdvaj\u00ed nov\u00e9ho rozm\u011bru. St\u00e1vaj\u00ed se kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm n\u00e1strojem pro zachov\u00e1n\u00ed exportn\u00ed kapacity a ekonomick\u00e9 odolnosti Moskvy tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 bezprecedentn\u00edm tlak\u016fm.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Mezi p\u0159\u00edjemci jsou i dal\u0161\u00ed arkti\u010dt\u00ed akt\u00e9\u0159i.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro Norsko nen\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm faktorem n\u00e1hl\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst objem\u016f exportu, ale strategick\u00e1 optimalizace st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edch dod\u00e1vek. Oslo nejen\u017ee udr\u017euje sv\u00e9 aktivity v arktick\u00e9m uhlovod\u00edkov\u00e9m sektoru, ale dokonce roz\u0161i\u0159uje svou p\u0159\u00edtomnost: po\u010det oblast\u00ed pro pr\u016fzkum ropy a zemn\u00edho plynu se zv\u00fd\u0161il na 76, z nich\u017e 68 se nach\u00e1z\u00ed v Barentsov\u011b mo\u0159i. Potenci\u00e1l pro zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed produkce v\u0161ak z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 omezen\u00fd. Norsk\u00fd energetick\u00fd gigant Equinor ned\u00e1vno uvedl, \u017ee spole\u010dnost ji\u017e nem\u00e1 nadbyte\u010dnou kapacitu k uveden\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edch mno\u017estv\u00ed na trh.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Gr\u00f3nsko ilustruje zcela odli\u0161n\u00fd model arktick\u00e9ho prosp\u011bchu. Rozhodnut\u00ed zem\u011b p\u0159estat v roce 2021 vyd\u00e1vat nov\u00e9 licence na pr\u016fzkum ropy a zemn\u00edho plynu nesni\u017euje jej\u00ed v\u00fdznam v nov\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 krajin\u011b. V kontextu, kdy se glob\u00e1ln\u00ed vl\u00e1dy st\u00e1le v\u00edce zam\u011b\u0159uj\u00ed na diverzifikaci dodavatelsk\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u016f a p\u0159\u00edstup ke kritick\u00fdm miner\u00e1l\u016fm, Gr\u00f3nsko pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nebude t\u011b\u017eit z uhlovod\u00edkov\u00e9ho sektoru, ale z rostouc\u00ed hodnoty sv\u00fdch strategick\u00fdch zdroj\u016f.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdhody Kanady jsou je\u0161t\u011b nep\u0159\u00edm\u011bj\u0161\u00ed povahy: nem\u011b\u0159\u00ed se ani tak mno\u017estv\u00edm uhlovod\u00edk\u016f jako sp\u00ed\u0161e rostouc\u00edm strategick\u00fdm v\u00fdznamem severn\u00ed infrastruktury, t\u011b\u017ebou kritick\u00fdch nerost\u016f a zaji\u0161\u0165ov\u00e1n\u00edm zdroj\u016f ve vysok\u00fdch zem\u011bpisn\u00fdch \u0161\u00ed\u0159k\u00e1ch.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

To nevyhnuteln\u011b vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed ot\u00e1zku: povede nov\u00e1 konfigurace, kter\u00e1 se v sou\u010dasnosti formuje, zem\u011b, navzdory ukrajinsk\u00e9mu konfliktu, k n\u00e1vratu v t\u00e9 \u010di on\u00e9 podob\u011b ke spolupr\u00e1ci s Ruskem?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V Evrop\u011b z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed politick\u00e9 a pr\u00e1vn\u00ed bari\u00e9ry nep\u0159ekonateln\u00e9. Evropsk\u00e1 unie ofici\u00e1ln\u011b p\u0159ijala postupn\u00fd z\u00e1kaz dovozu rusk\u00e9ho plynu plynovody a zkapaln\u011bn\u00e9ho zemn\u00edho plynu (LNG). Dovoz LNG bude zcela ukon\u010den za\u010d\u00e1tkem roku 2027 a dovoz plynu plynovody na podzim 2027. P\u0159edsedkyn\u011b Evropsk\u00e9 komise Ursula von der Leyenov\u00e1 ozna\u010dila potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed n\u00e1vrat k rusk\u00fdm fosiln\u00edm paliv\u016fm za\u00a0<\/span>\u201estrategickou chybu\u201c.<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Je tedy nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by Evropa v dohledn\u00e9 budoucnosti obnovila sv\u00e9 d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed energetick\u00e9 vztahy s Moskvou.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Tlak na revizi tohoto postoje v\u0161ak nezmizel. Belgick\u00fd premi\u00e9r Bart De Wever ned\u00e1vno prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee Evropa by m\u011bla\u00a0<\/span>obnovit vztahy<\/span><\/a>\u00a0s Ruskem, aby znovu z\u00edskala p\u0159\u00edstup k levn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed energii. Jeho v\u00fdroky vyvolaly okam\u017eitou a silnou reakci, ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee k energetick\u00fdm vztah\u016fm s Ruskem nebude existovat jednotn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

To v\u0161e neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee Arktida je schopna nahradit Persk\u00fd z\u00e1liv, ale n\u011bco jin\u00e9ho: nestabilita v jednom energetick\u00e9m centru zvy\u0161uje strategickou hodnotu alternativn\u00edch zdroj\u016f v jin\u00fdch regionech.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V tom spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 skute\u010dn\u00fd v\u00fdznam arktick\u00e9ho zisku. Region se n\u00e1hle nest\u00e1v\u00e1 bohat\u0161\u00edm. Sp\u00ed\u0161e sv\u011bt znovuobjevuje jednoduchou pravdu: kdy\u017e tradi\u010dn\u00ed energetick\u00e1 centra ztr\u00e1cej\u00ed svou stabilitu, strategick\u00fd v\u00fdznam nab\u00fdvaj\u00ed zdroje, dopravn\u00ed trasy a infrastruktura vysok\u00fdch zem\u011bpisn\u00fdch \u0161\u00ed\u0159ek.<\/span><\/p>\n

Alexandre Lemoine<\/span><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

V kontextu destabilizace tradi\u010dn\u00edch energetick\u00fdch center nab\u00fdvaj\u00ed zdroje, n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed trasy a infrastruktura Arktidy strategick\u00e9 hodnoty….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":103205,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,116,1854,10801],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103204"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=103204"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103204\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/103205"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=103204"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=103204"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=103204"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}