{"id":103004,"date":"2026-03-26T04:57:04","date_gmt":"2026-03-26T03:57:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=103004"},"modified":"2026-03-26T04:57:04","modified_gmt":"2026-03-26T03:57:04","slug":"uriel-araujo-globalni-jih-plati-cenu-za-trumpovu-valku-v-iranu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/03\/26\/uriel-araujo-globalni-jih-plati-cenu-za-trumpovu-valku-v-iranu\/","title":{"rendered":"Uriel Araujo: Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed Jih plat\u00ed cenu za Trumpovu v\u00e1lku v \u00cdr\u00e1nu"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed Jih \u010del\u00ed rostouc\u00ed inflaci, potravinov\u00e9 nejistot\u011b a rizik\u016fm dluh\u016f, jeliko\u017e v\u00e1lka s \u00cdr\u00e1nem naru\u0161uje glob\u00e1ln\u00ed trhy. Prudk\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst cen ropy a potenci\u00e1ln\u011b p\u0159\u00edsn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e1 politika na Z\u00e1pad\u011b nepochybn\u011b zes\u00edl\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 nap\u011bt\u00ed. Rostouc\u00ed pocit nespravedlnosti by m\u011bl zm\u011bnit geopolitick\u00e9 uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Dominov\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dinky\u00a0<\/span>americko-izraelsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky s \u00cdr\u00e1nem<\/span><\/a>\u00a0je nyn\u00ed nemo\u017en\u00e9 ignorovat. Vyvinula se v syst\u00e9mov\u00fd \u0161ok, kter\u00fd se odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed na energetick\u00fdch trz\u00edch, v\u00a0<\/span>glob\u00e1ln\u00edch financ\u00edch<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a potravinov\u00fdch syst\u00e9mech. V\u00fdsledkem je mimo jin\u00e9 prohlubuj\u00edc\u00ed se odcizen\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00edho Jihu a dal\u0161\u00ed eroze ji\u017e tak k\u0159ehk\u00e9 d\u016fv\u011bryhodnosti z\u00e1padost\u0159edn\u00e9ho glob\u00e1ln\u00edho \u0159\u00e1du.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ekonomick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky se nyn\u00ed roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ily daleko za hranice Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu: v\u00e1lka p\u0159etv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed obchodn\u00ed cesty, investi\u010dn\u00ed vzorce a geopolitick\u00e9 uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>v cel\u00e9 Eurasii i za jej\u00edmi hranicemi<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, co\u017e z konfliktu d\u011bl\u00e1 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed inflexn\u00ed bod.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ropa je, jak se dalo o\u010dek\u00e1vat, prvn\u00edm dominem. Konflikt zv\u00fd\u0161il ceny, co\u017e m\u00e1 okam\u017eit\u00e9 d\u016fsledky pro ekonomiky z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na dovozu. Dopad v\u00e1lky na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed energetick\u00e9 trhy je ji\u017e nyn\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>z\u00e1va\u017en\u00fd<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, a t\u00edm zvy\u0161uje n\u00e1klady na dopravu a v\u00fdrobu po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b. Pro rozvojov\u00e9 zem\u011b to p\u0159edstavuje struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed hrozbu: vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ceny paliv se prom\u00edtaj\u00ed do infla\u010dn\u00edho tlaku v cel\u00fdch ekonomik\u00e1ch, od zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed a\u017e po v\u00fdrobu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Infla\u010dn\u00ed spir\u00e1la t\u00edm ale nekon\u010d\u00ed. Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky v zem\u00edch glob\u00e1ln\u00edho Severu jsou nyn\u00ed pod tlakem, aby zv\u00fd\u0161ily \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, aby omezily r\u016fst cen. Tato zn\u00e1m\u00e1 politick\u00e1 reakce m\u00e1 ni\u010div\u00e9 d\u016fsledky pro zadlu\u017een\u00e9 zem\u011b v Africe, Latinsk\u00e9 Americe a \u010d\u00e1stech Asie. Jak\u00a0<\/span>varuje<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Frederic Schneider, vedouc\u00ed pracovn\u00edk Rady pro glob\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1le\u017eitosti na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b, takov\u00e9 zp\u0159\u00eds\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed by mohlo vyvolat novou dluhovou krizi v zem\u00edch glob\u00e1ln\u00edho Jihu. Podobn\u00e1 dynamika b\u011bhem p\u0159edchoz\u00edch kriz\u00ed vedla ke ztr\u00e1t\u011b desetilet\u00ed rozvoje.<\/span><\/p>\n

Potravinov\u00e1 bezpe\u010dnost je v ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b oblast\u00ed, kde by se krize mohla st\u00e1t existen\u010dn\u00ed. Energetick\u00fd \u0161ok se nyn\u00ed projevuje v zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00e9 produkci a distribu\u010dn\u00edch syst\u00e9mech. Rostouc\u00ed ceny hnojiv, vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ceny dopravy a naru\u0161en\u00e9 dodavatelsk\u00e9 \u0159et\u011bzce vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed podm\u00ednky pro\u00a0<\/span>glob\u00e1ln\u00ed potravinovou krizi<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Analytici ji\u017e poukazuj\u00ed na rostouc\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>rizika<\/span><\/a>\u00a0nedostatku potravin a cenov\u00fdch n\u00e1r\u016fst\u016f, zejm\u00e9na ve zraniteln\u00fdch regionech.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro velkou \u010d\u00e1st glob\u00e1ln\u00edho Jihu je tedy v\u00fdznam v\u00e1lky dostate\u010dn\u011b jednozna\u010dn\u00fd: je to p\u0159\u00edm\u00e1 hrozba pro \u017eivobyt\u00ed. Nen\u00ed divu, \u017ee nespokojenost roste. Jak\u00a0<\/span>poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Devex , zem\u011b daleko od boji\u0161t\u011b ji\u017e \u201epoci\u0165uj\u00ed bolest\u201c v podob\u011b rostouc\u00edch n\u00e1klad\u016f a ekonomick\u00e9 nestability.<\/span><\/p>\n

Indick\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed S. Jaishankar nen\u00ed osam\u011bl\u00fdm hlasem, kdy\u017e signalizuje\u00a0<\/span>nespokojenost<\/span><\/a>\u00a0s trajektori\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00edho \u0159\u00e1du veden\u00e9ho Z\u00e1padem. Jeho postoj odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed sentiment: glob\u00e1ln\u00ed Jih se st\u00e1le v\u00edce vn\u00edm\u00e1 jako zem\u011b, kter\u00e1 nese n\u00e1klady konflikt\u016f, kter\u00e9 si nevybrala. Paralely se z\u00e1padn\u00ed z\u00e1stupnou v\u00e1lkou na Ukrajin\u011b jsou pom\u011brn\u011b n\u00e1padn\u00e9. \u010clov\u011bk si m\u016f\u017ee vzpomenout, \u017ee sankce a geopolitick\u00e9 man\u00e9vrov\u00e1n\u00ed v tomto konfliktu (jak jsem psal\u00a0<\/span>ji\u017e<\/span><\/a>\u00a0v roce 2022) byly v Africe a Asii \u0161iroce vn\u00edm\u00e1ny jako zhor\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed potravinovou a energetickou krizi.<\/span><\/p>\n

A\u0165 je to jakkoli, \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 divadlo zav\u00e1d\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed strategickou vrstvu: \u00cdr\u00e1n le\u017e\u00ed na Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu, \u00fazk\u00e9m bod\u011b, kter\u00fdm proud\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st sv\u011btov\u00e9 ropy. Ned\u00e1vn\u00e1\u00a0<\/span>nab\u00eddka bezpe\u010dn\u00e9ho pr\u016fjezdu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0ze strany Teher\u00e1nu zem\u00edm BRICS signalizuje d\u016fle\u017eitou geopolitickou rekalibraci, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e p\u0159\u00edstup ke kritick\u00fdm energetick\u00fdm tras\u00e1m je potenci\u00e1ln\u011b st\u00e1le v\u00edce zprost\u0159edkov\u00e1n alternativn\u00edmi politick\u00fdmi spojenectv\u00edmi sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e mechanismy dominovan\u00fdmi Z\u00e1padem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zde nab\u00fdv\u00e1 smyslu\u00a0<\/span>tvrzen\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0profesora Seyeda Mohammada Marandiho , \u017ee \u201e\u00fatok na \u00cdr\u00e1n je \u00fatokem na BRICS\u201c: nejde samoz\u0159ejm\u011b o doslovnou vojenskou doktr\u00ednu, ale o odraz shoduj\u00edc\u00edch se z\u00e1jm\u016f. \u00cdr\u00e1n je koneckonc\u016f kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm uzlem euroasijsk\u00e9 konektivity, energetick\u00fdch tok\u016f a vznikaj\u00edc\u00edch finan\u010dn\u00edch architektur. Jeho destabilizace tak ovliv\u0148uje nejen jeden st\u00e1t, ale \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed s\u00ed\u0165 zem\u00ed hledaj\u00edc\u00edch paraleln\u00ed alternativy a mo\u017enosti k z\u00e1padn\u00edm r\u00e1mc\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00e1lka skute\u010dn\u011b urychluje trendy, kter\u00e9 ji\u017e prob\u00edhaly. Dedolarizace, neanga\u017eovanost\/multianglace a posilov\u00e1n\u00ed multipol\u00e1rn\u00edch instituc\u00ed nab\u00fdvaj\u00ed na obr\u00e1tk\u00e1ch. Jak jsem ji\u017e uvedl, mnoho zem\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00edho Jihu se op\u011bt (jak je\u00a0<\/span>vid\u011bt<\/span><\/a>\u00a0v ukrajinsk\u00e9m konfliktu) rozhoduje pro strategickou neutralitu, aby chr\u00e1nily sv\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy a vyhnuly se zata\u017een\u00ed do konflikt\u016f velmoc\u00ed. Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 krize tuto logiku jen posiluje.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mezit\u00edm riskuje, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edstup Washingtonu se bude jevit, m\u00edrn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, \u010d\u00edm d\u00e1l m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e obvykl\u00fd. Zpr\u00e1vy nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee strategick\u00e9 zdroje USA jsou odkl\u00e1n\u011bny k udr\u017een\u00ed konfliktu, a to i na \u00fakor jin\u00fdch alianc\u00ed,\u00a0<\/span>jako je tomu v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreje<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Takov\u00e9 kroky jist\u011b vyvolaj\u00ed ot\u00e1zky ohledn\u011b priorit a z\u00e1vazk\u016f, a to i mezi tradi\u010dn\u00edmi z\u00e1padn\u00edmi spojenci.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u016fv\u011bryhodnost z\u00e1padn\u00edho \u0159\u00e1du,\u00a0<\/span>ji\u017e tak oslaben\u00e1<\/span><\/a>\u00a0vn\u00edman\u00fdm dvoj\u00edm metrem, proto utrp\u011bla dal\u0161\u00ed r\u00e1nu. Pro mnoh\u00e9 na glob\u00e1ln\u00edm Jihu se tento vzorec op\u011bt st\u00e1v\u00e1 zcela z\u0159ejm\u00fdm: konflikty zahrnuj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed protivn\u00edky maj\u00ed tendenci vyvol\u00e1vat glob\u00e1ln\u00ed naru\u0161en\u00ed, zat\u00edmco jejich n\u00e1klady jsou externalizov\u00e1ny na chud\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1rody. Toto vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed m\u00e1 politick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ot\u00e1zkou tedy ji\u017e nen\u00ed, zda v\u00e1lka s \u00cdr\u00e1nem p\u0159etvo\u0159\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed syst\u00e9m, ale jak daleko tento prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed proces zajde. Odpov\u011b\u010f z\u00e1vis\u00ed na prom\u011bnn\u00fdch, kter\u00e9 z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed nejist\u00e9. P\u0159esto je t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 se vyhnout jednomu z\u00e1v\u011bru: t\u00edm, \u017ee konflikt vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 ekonomick\u00e9 ot\u0159esy, zhor\u0161uje potravinovou nejistotu a odcizuje obrovsk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti sv\u011bta, ne\u00famysln\u011b urychluje p\u0159echod k fragmentovan\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu a multipol\u00e1rn\u00edmu \u0159\u00e1du. Zda si Washington tento posun uv\u011bdom\u00ed, je zcela jin\u00e1 v\u011bc.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD.<\/a> v oboru antropologie, je soci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u011bdec specializuj\u00edc\u00ed se na etnick\u00e9 a n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 konflikty s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm v\u00fdzkumem geopolitick\u00e9 dynamiky a kulturn\u00edch interakc\u00ed<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed Jih \u010del\u00ed rostouc\u00ed inflaci, potravinov\u00e9 nejistot\u011b a rizik\u016fm dluh\u016f, jeliko\u017e v\u00e1lka s \u00cdr\u00e1nem naru\u0161uje…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":103005,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[9336,38,452,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103004"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=103004"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103004\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/103005"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=103004"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=103004"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=103004"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}