{"id":102989,"date":"2026-03-26T00:41:14","date_gmt":"2026-03-25T23:41:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=102989"},"modified":"2026-03-25T16:56:45","modified_gmt":"2026-03-25T15:56:45","slug":"petr-vlk-pohled-markuse-reisnera-ukrajina-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/03\/26\/petr-vlk-pohled-markuse-reisnera-ukrajina-iran\/","title":{"rendered":"Petr Vlk: Pohled Markuse Reisnera -Ukrajina\/Ir\u00e1n"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Ve\u00a0 zmatku kolem\u00a0 zlo\u010dinn\u00e9ho p\u0159epaden\u00ed Ir\u00e1nu\u00a0 Epsteinovou koalic\u00ed jsem\u00a0 jaksi\u00a0 omylem\u00a0 vypustil\u00a0 sledov\u00e1n\u00ed\u00a0 pohled\u016f plukovn\u00edka\u00a0 rakousk\u00e9ho gener\u00e1ln\u00edho\u00a0 \u0161t\u00e1bu\u00a0 Markuse\u00a0 Reisnera na\u00a0 d\u011bn\u00ed na\u00a0 Ukrajin\u011b\u00a0 a\u00a0 co\u00a0 hor\u0161\u00edho, uniklo mi \u00fapln\u011b, \u017ee\u00a0 za\u010dal\u00a0 komentovat\u00a0 pro n\u011bmeck\u00fd zpravodajsk\u00fd port\u00e1l n-tv.de\u00a0 i\u00a0 vojenskou\u00a0 kampa\u0148\u00a0 na\u00a0 Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m\u00a0 v\u00fdchod\u011b. Tak\u017ee je nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed\u00a0 \u010das\u00a0 to napravit.\u00a0 Tady je\u00a0 jeho posledn\u00ed rozhovor\u00a0 s\u00a0 n-tv.de<\/p>\n

\u201eDie USA sind so massiv unter Druck, dass sie zu einem Deal bereit sein d\u00fcrften\u201c<\/span><\/strong><\/a><\/h3>\n

\u201eUSA jsou pod tak obrovsk\u00fdm tlakem, \u017ee budou pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b ochotny uzav\u0159\u00edt dohodu.\u201c<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

Zpr\u00e1vy nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee Rusko nab\u00eddlo USA, \u017ee pokud USA na opl\u00e1tku opust\u00ed Ukrajinu, p\u0159estanou \u00cdr\u00e1nu poskytovat zpravodajsk\u00e9 informace. Plukovn\u00edk Markus Reisner to pova\u017euje za velmi pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9: \u201eM\u016f\u017eete p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee v z\u00e1kulis\u00ed prob\u00edhaj\u00ed odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 ve sv\u00e9 t\u00fddenn\u00ed zpr\u00e1v\u011b o front\u011b na Ukrajin\u011b. \u201eV\u00e1lkou s \u00cdr\u00e1nem daly USA Rus\u016fm a \u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u016fm absolutn\u00ed dar.\u201c<\/i><\/p>\n

ntv.de: Podle Institutu pro studium v\u00e1lky Rusov\u00e9 zah\u00e1jili ofenz\u00edvu proti opevn\u011bn\u00e9\u00a0 front\u011b Ukrajiny. Je ukrajinsk\u00e1 obrann\u00e1 linie v bezprost\u0159edn\u00edm ohro\u017een\u00ed?<\/b><\/p>\n

Markus Reisner: Na konci roku 2025 se Rusov\u00e9 st\u00e1le sna\u017eili dos\u00e1hnout v\u00fdsledk\u016f v ji\u017en\u00edm sektoru mezi Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00edm a Chersonem. Ukrajina na to reagovala \u00fatokem na k\u0159\u00eddlo postupuj\u00edc\u00edch rusk\u00fdch vojsk ji\u017en\u011b od osady Pokrovske v Dn\u011bpropetrovsk\u00e9 oblasti. Tato ofenz\u00edva tak prozat\u00edm selhala. Nyn\u00ed vid\u00edme, \u017ee se Rusov\u00e9 p\u0159ipravuj\u00ed na novou velkou ofenz\u00edvu.<\/p>\n

Kde?<\/b><\/p>\n

V oblasti pevnostn\u00edho p\u00e1su, kter\u00fd se t\u00e1hne od Slovianska p\u0159es Kramatorsk a\u017e po Kostantynivku. Rusov\u00e9 se loni ocitli ve v\u00fdhodn\u00e9 pozici: dobyli m\u011bsto Siversk. To byl kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd bod mezi severn\u00ed a ji\u017en\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed \u2013 t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 p\u0159esn\u011b uprost\u0159ed centr\u00e1ln\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti, kter\u00e1 vede od Kupjanska k m\u011bstu Pokrovsk v Don\u011bck\u00e9 oblasti. Dobyt\u00ed Siversku bylo umo\u017en\u011bno p\u00e1dem Kreminsk\u00e9ho lesa, kter\u00fd Ukrajina ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve ztratila.<\/p>\n

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Pl\u00e1nuj\u00ed Rusov\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed \u00fatok?<\/b><\/p>\n

Rusov\u00e9 se pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b pokus\u00ed proj\u00edt za opevn\u011bnou linii pomoc\u00ed dvou pr\u016fnik\u016f: jednoho z Lymanu severn\u011b od Slovjanska a druh\u00e9ho pobl\u00ed\u017e Torecka z\u00e1padn\u011b od Kostantynivky. V t\u00e9to oblasti se nach\u00e1z\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161ina ukrajinsk\u00fdch opevn\u011bn\u00ed na Donbasu.<\/p>\n

P\u0159esto\u017ee je Ukrajina zapojena do obrann\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, \u00fadajn\u011b vyslala do n\u011bkolika st\u00e1t\u016f Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 200 expert\u016f na drony. M\u016f\u017ee si Ukrajina opravdu dovolit vzd\u00e1t se tolika odborn\u00fdch znalost\u00ed?<\/b><\/p>\n

Pro Ukrajinu je to ot\u00e1zka zv\u00e1\u017een\u00ed mo\u017enost\u00ed. Ukrajina douf\u00e1, \u017ee na opl\u00e1tku z\u00edsk\u00e1 podporu od st\u00e1t\u016f Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu \u2013 mo\u017en\u00e1 finan\u010dn\u00ed, ale p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm raket Patriot. Pokud budou ukrajinsk\u00e9 protiraketov\u00e9 syst\u00e9my v st\u00e1tech Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e9, tyto zem\u011b nebudou muset pou\u017e\u00edvat sv\u00e9 drah\u00e9 Patrioty k zachycen\u00ed levn\u00fdch \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch dron\u016f. Ukrajina tyto Patrioty zoufale pot\u0159ebuje k obran\u011b p\u0159ed siln\u00fdmi rusk\u00fdmi \u00fatoky.<\/p>\n

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Podle zpr\u00e1vy BBC ukrajinsk\u00e9 t\u00fdmy ji\u017e sest\u0159elily n\u011bkolik \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch dron\u016f v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu. D\u011bl\u00e1 to z Ukrajiny stranu \u00edr\u00e1nsko-ir\u00e1ck\u00e9 v\u00e1lky?<\/b><\/p>\n

Zat\u00edm neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed potvrzen\u00ed, pouze\u00a0zpr\u00e1va BBC\u00a0<\/a>a prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed prezidenta Zelensk\u00e9ho, kter\u00fd uvedl, \u017ee na m\u00edst\u011b byly ukrajinsk\u00e9 t\u00fdmy. Z hlediska mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho pr\u00e1va je to zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 \u2013 i kdy\u017e je t\u0159eba \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed pr\u00e1vo bohu\u017eel u\u017e z\u0159ejm\u011b nikoho nezaj\u00edm\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Podle mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho pr\u00e1va existuj\u00ed dv\u011b z\u00e1kladn\u00ed krit\u00e9ria, kter\u00e1 ur\u010duj\u00ed, zda se zem\u011b stane stranou konfliktu. Prvn\u00edm je, zjednodu\u0161en\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, kdy\u017e voj\u00e1ci dan\u00e9 zem\u011b bojuj\u00ed bok po boku s podporovanou stranou. Druh\u00fdm je, kdy\u017e zem\u011b podporuje stranu takov\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem, \u017ee by bez t\u00e9to podpory nebyla schopna jednat samostatn\u011b. Zde se nach\u00e1z\u00edme p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm v \u0161ed\u00e9 z\u00f3n\u011b.<\/p>\n

Vid\u00edte riziko eskalace v d\u016fsledku nasazen\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fdch specialist\u016f?<\/b><\/p>\n

Ne hned \u2013 pokud se \u00cdr\u00e1n nerozhodne odp\u00e1lit na Ukrajinu raketu dlouh\u00e9ho doletu. Vid\u00edme, \u017ee v\u00e1lka, kter\u00e1 za\u010dala relativn\u011b lok\u00e1ln\u011b na Ukrajin\u011b, se st\u00e1le v\u00edce roz\u0161i\u0159uje. Severn\u00ed Korea se ji\u017e d\u00e1vno stala stranou konfliktu: severokorej\u0161t\u00ed voj\u00e1ci bojuj\u00ed za Rusko proti Ukrajin\u011b. A v posledn\u00edch dvou t\u00fddnech se objevily jasn\u00e9 n\u00e1znaky, \u017ee Rusko podporuje \u00cdr\u00e1n satelitn\u00edmi daty. \u010c\u00edna \u00fadajn\u011b d\u011bl\u00e1 tot\u00e9\u017e. Je to v podstat\u011b tot\u00e9\u017e, co USA d\u011blaj\u00ed pro Ukrajinu u\u017e l\u00e9ta.<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n

Je kvalita rusk\u00e9 podpory \u00cdr\u00e1nu v podob\u011b zpravodajsk\u00fdch informac\u00ed srovnateln\u00e1 s americkou podporou Ukrajiny?<\/b><\/p>\n

V roce 2023 zve\u0159ejnil americk\u00fd voj\u00e1k utajovan\u00e9 dokumenty, Discord Leaks. Ty odhalily vysokou kvalitu informac\u00ed, kter\u00e9 USA poskytuj\u00ed Ukrajin\u011b. Evropsk\u00e9 zem\u011b tak\u00e9 sd\u00edlej\u00ed s Ukrajinou data ze satelitn\u00edho pr\u016fzkumu. USA v\u0161ak mohou vytv\u00e1\u0159et situa\u010dn\u00ed sn\u00edmky, kter\u00e9 situaci zobrazuj\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 okam\u017eit\u011b. Evropan\u00e9 to nedok\u00e1\u017eou, stejn\u011b jako Rusko a \u010c\u00edna ve stejn\u00e9 m\u00ed\u0159e. Rozhodn\u011b v\u0161ak mohou poskytnout kl\u00ed\u010dovou a c\u00edlenou podporu, kter\u00e1 \u00cdr\u00e1nc\u016fm umo\u017en\u00ed prov\u00e1d\u011bt rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 \u00fatoky. V nejm\u00e9n\u011b 17 p\u0159\u00edpadech byly c\u00edlen\u011b zam\u011b\u0159eny americk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu. Zasa\u017eeno bylo a\u017e deset radarov\u00fdch a satelitn\u00edch komunika\u010dn\u00edch syst\u00e9m\u016f na vysok\u00e9 \u00farovni. \u00cdr\u00e1n by toho bez pomoci nedok\u00e1zal.<\/p>\n

Podle serveru Politico Rusko nab\u00eddlo USA, \u017ee pokud USA p\u0159estanou sd\u00edlet informace s Ukrajinou, p\u0159estanou \u00cdr\u00e1nu poskytovat zpravodajsk\u00e9 informace. Rusko to pop\u0159elo. Zn\u00ed v\u00e1m zpr\u00e1va st\u00e1le v\u011brohodn\u011b?<\/b><\/p>\n

Rozhodn\u011b. M\u016f\u017eete p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee jedn\u00e1n\u00ed prob\u00edhaj\u00ed v z\u00e1kulis\u00ed. USA jsou pod tak obrovsk\u00fdm tlakem, \u017ee by pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b byly ochotny takovou dohodu uzav\u0159\u00edt.<\/p>\n

V\u011b\u0159\u00edte, \u017ee by USA mohly p\u0159ijmout \u00fadajnou ruskou nab\u00eddku?<\/b><\/p>\n

Trump ji\u017e vin\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9ho prezidenta z dosavadn\u00edho ne\u00fasp\u011bchu rozhovor\u016f. To nazna\u010duje, \u017ee by mohlo doj\u00edt k dohod\u011b na \u00fakor Ukrajiny. Trump a jeho nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00ed okol\u00ed zjevn\u011b nep\u0159edpokl\u00e1dali odvetu \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Na z\u00e1klad\u011b uji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed izraelsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy se domn\u00edvali, \u017ee bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed spust\u00ed b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika dn\u00ed lidov\u00e9 povst\u00e1n\u00ed. Trump\u016fv probl\u00e9m je tento: pokud \u00cdr\u00e1n udr\u017e\u00ed blok\u00e1du Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu, USA se nemohou jednodu\u0161e st\u00e1hnout. A pokud by H\u00fat\u00edov\u00e9 zah\u00e1jili \u00fatoky v Jemenu proti druh\u00e9mu kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9mu pr\u016flivu, B\u00e1b al-Mandab mezi Rud\u00fdm mo\u0159em a Adensk\u00fdm z\u00e1livem, tlak by se dramaticky zv\u00fd\u0161il.<\/p>\n

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Jak\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem?<\/b><\/p>\n

To by vytvo\u0159ilo \u00fazk\u00e1 hrdla v dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch, kter\u00e1 by byla kritick\u00e1 pro glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku, a tak\u00e9 by to postavilo Trumpa do prek\u00e9rn\u00ed situace. Lod\u011b, kter\u00e9 jsou v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b na trase, doraz\u00ed do sv\u00fdch destinac\u00ed za deset dn\u00ed. Podle Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed energetick\u00e9 agentury strategick\u00e9 z\u00e1soby ropy vysta\u010d\u00ed na 90 a\u017e 250 dn\u00ed. Situace je je\u0161t\u011b kriti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed u zkapaln\u011bn\u00e9ho zemn\u00edho plynu a hnojiv. Proto si dok\u00e1\u017eu jist\u011b p\u0159edstavit, \u017ee se v z\u00e1kulis\u00ed uzav\u00edr\u00e1 dohoda s Rusy a mo\u017en\u00e1 i s \u010c\u00ed\u0148any.<\/p>\n

O v\u00edkendu se na Florid\u011b poprv\u00e9 po v\u00edce ne\u017e m\u011bs\u00edci konala sch\u016fzka na expertn\u00ed \u00farovni, jej\u00edm\u017e c\u00edlem bylo p\u0159ipravit t\u0159\u00edstrann\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed o ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky. Jsou takov\u00e1 setk\u00e1n\u00ed v sou\u010dasnosti jen symbolick\u00fdmi gesty?<\/b><\/p>\n

Nejsem si t\u00edm tak jist\u00fd. Na za\u010d\u00e1tku \u00edr\u00e1nsko-ir\u00e1ck\u00e9 v\u00e1lky Rusov\u00e9 fakticky ozn\u00e1mili, \u017ee jedn\u00e1n\u00ed byla pozastavena. Pak se uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee jedn\u00e1n\u00ed skute\u010dn\u011b prob\u00edhaj\u00ed v z\u00e1kulis\u00ed. Trump\u016fv zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed vyslanec Steve Witkoff dokonce prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee jedn\u00e1n\u00ed z\u016fstala konstruktivn\u00ed. Oba vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00ed t\u00fdmy jsou pom\u011brn\u011b v\u00fdznamn\u00e9. Ale kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd probl\u00e9m z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nevy\u0159e\u0161en.<\/p>\n

Byl jsem p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den, \u017ee \u0161ance na m\u00edrovou dohodu byla v posledn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e kdykoli p\u0159edt\u00edm. V\u00e1lkou v \u00cdr\u00e1nu daly USA Rus\u016fm a \u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u016fm absolutn\u00ed dar. Rusov\u00e9 nyn\u00ed \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed: Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 jsou v \u00cdr\u00e1nu sv\u00e1z\u00e1ni; v\u011bci nejdou tak, jak doufali. To zvy\u0161uje \u0161ance Ruska na prodlou\u017een\u00ed v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b.<\/p>\n

A \u010c\u00edna?<\/b><\/p>\n

Samotn\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed zbra\u0148ov\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f, kter\u00e9 USA v \u00cdr\u00e1nu pou\u017eily, je v pln\u00e9m z\u00e1jmu \u010c\u00edny. V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b eskalace v Pacifiku, nap\u0159\u00edklad na Tchaj-wanu, by pro \u010c\u00ednu p\u0159irozen\u011b bylo v\u00fdhodn\u00e9, kdyby USA nemohly \u010derpat ze sv\u00e9ho arzen\u00e1lu. Vzhledem k mno\u017estv\u00ed zbra\u0148ov\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f, kter\u00e9 USA v \u00cdr\u00e1nu pou\u017eily \u2013 jejich nahrazen\u00ed bude trvat roky. A v\u00e1lka st\u00e1le zu\u0159\u00ed.<\/p>\n

ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo<\/p>\n

\u010ctu\u00a0 Markuse\u00a0 Reisnera\u00a0 velmi\u00a0 r\u00e1d. Nic nevad\u00ed,\u00a0 \u017ee\u00a0 je\u00a0 jasn\u011b\u00a0 proukrajinsk\u00fd, nicm\u00e9n\u011b\u00a0 jeho\u00a0 anal\u00fdzy\u00a0 a jejich z\u00e1v\u011bry\u00a0 t\u00edm nejsou nijak poznamen\u00e1ny. Takhle\u00a0 si\u00a0 p\u0159edstavuji\u00a0 pr\u00e1ci\u00a0 analytika nebo\u00a0 novin\u00e1\u0159e!!!<\/p>\n

Osobn\u011b se docela\u00a0 div\u00edm, \u017ee\u00a0 ho\u00a0 n-tv.de vzhledem\u00a0 k\u00a0 jejich\u00a0 v\u011bt\u0161inov\u00e9\u00a0 \u00a0bohu\u017eel\u00a0 u\u017e demagogii\u00a0 je\u0161t\u011b vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1. Ale\u00a0 to\u00a0 nen\u00ed\u00a0 probl\u00e9m ani\u00a0 tohoto \u010dl\u00e1nku, ani probl\u00e9m m\u016fj.<\/p>\n

Petr Vlk<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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