{"id":102979,"date":"2026-03-26T00:44:03","date_gmt":"2026-03-25T23:44:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=102979"},"modified":"2026-03-25T16:43:43","modified_gmt":"2026-03-25T15:43:43","slug":"german-gorraiz-lopez-zpusobi-konflikt-na-blizkem-vychode-novou-globalni-potravinovou-krizi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/03\/26\/german-gorraiz-lopez-zpusobi-konflikt-na-blizkem-vychode-novou-globalni-potravinovou-krizi\/","title":{"rendered":"Germ\u00e1n Gorraiz L\u00f3pez: Zp\u016fsob\u00ed konflikt na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b novou glob\u00e1ln\u00ed potravinovou krizi?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Abdolreza Abbassian, ekonom z Organizace OSN pro v\u00fd\u017eivu a zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed (FAO),\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><strong><span dir=\"auto\">agentu\u0159e\u00a0<\/span><em><span dir=\"auto\">Associated Press<\/span><\/em><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0\u0159ekl , \u017ee k u\u017eiven\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 populace, kter\u00e1 do roku 2050 dos\u00e1hne 9 miliard lid\u00ed, \u201ese bude muset celosv\u011btov\u00e1 produkce potravin v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch 40 letech zv\u00fd\u0161it o 70 procent\u201c.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Tento \u00fakol se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt monument\u00e1ln\u00ed, proto\u017ee zat\u00edmco sv\u011btov\u00e1 populace roste o 1,55 % ro\u010dn\u011b, v\u00fdnosy obilovin se za posledn\u00edch p\u011bt let zv\u00fd\u0161ily pouze o 1 % a podle FAO se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee index cen obilovin do roku 2025 vzroste o 4,3 %.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Hroz\u00ed nov\u00e1 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed potravinov\u00e1 krize? Nedostatek z\u00e1kladn\u00edch zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fdch produkt\u016f pro potraviny (p\u0161enice, kuku\u0159ice, r\u00fd\u017ee, \u010dirok a proso) a prudce rostouc\u00ed ceny t\u011bchto produkt\u016f na sv\u011btov\u00fdch trz\u00edch, kter\u00e9 vyvrcholily v roce 2007, se v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm desetilet\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b prohloub\u00ed a sv\u00e9ho vrcholu dos\u00e1hnou kolem roku 2030. K t\u00e9to krizi (jej\u00ed\u017e prvn\u00ed obrysy se ji\u017e objevuj\u00ed a kter\u00e1 do konce desetilet\u00ed dos\u00e1hne sv\u00e9ho pln\u00e9ho rozsahu) p\u0159isp\u011bly n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed faktory: sebevra\u017eedn\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd rozvoj zem\u00ed t\u0159et\u00edho sv\u011bta, charakterizovan\u00fd nadm\u011brn\u00fdm r\u016fstem megam\u011bst a megaturistick\u00fdch letovisek, a n\u00e1sledn\u00e9 zmen\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u016fdy v\u011bnovan\u00e9 zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed, co\u017e zp\u016fsobilo znepokojiv\u00fd deficit v dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch obilovin, odhadovan\u00fd na jednu miliardu tun ro\u010dn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V\u00fdvoj spot\u0159ebn\u00edch vzorc\u016f v rozv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00edch se zem\u00edch v d\u016fsledku dramatick\u00e9ho n\u00e1r\u016fstu st\u0159edn\u00ed t\u0159\u00eddy a jej\u00ed kupn\u00ed s\u00edly, zejm\u00e9na v zem\u00edch, jako je \u010c\u00edna a Indie, kter\u00e9 by i p\u0159es exponenci\u00e1ln\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst produkce obilovin do roku 2025 monopolizovaly v\u00edce ne\u017e 15 % sv\u011btov\u00e9 produkce obilovin, co\u017e by vedlo ke zhor\u0161en\u00ed nedostatku dod\u00e1vek obilovin pro zem\u011b, kter\u00e9 obiloviny \u010dist\u011b dov\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed, jako je Kolumbie a Egypt.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Nadm\u011brn\u00e1 z\u00e1vislost rozvojov\u00fdch zem\u00ed na dovozu obilovin s n\u00e1r\u016fstem o 9 %, co\u017e je exponenci\u00e1ln\u00ed r\u016fst, kter\u00fd by do roku 2030 mohl dos\u00e1hnout 265 milion\u016f tun obilovin (14 % jejich spot\u0159eby), s dodate\u010dnou z\u00e1t\u011b\u017e\u00ed v podob\u011b postupn\u00e9ho znehodnocov\u00e1n\u00ed jejich m\u011bn v\u016f\u010di dolaru.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed pred\u00e1torsk\u00fdch technologi\u00ed (biopaliv) zem\u011bmi prvn\u00edho sv\u011bta, kter\u00e9 pod ozna\u010den\u00edm \u201eBIO\u201c ekologicky \u0161etrn\u00fdch zem\u00ed nebudou v\u00e1hat spot\u0159ebov\u00e1vat obrovsk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed kuku\u0159ice p\u016fvodn\u011b ur\u010den\u00e9 k v\u00fdrob\u011b bionafty.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Na druhou stranu sou\u010dasn\u00fd prudk\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst cen ropy, kter\u00e9 by mohly vy\u0161plhat a\u017e na 120 dolar\u016f za barel, povede k dramatick\u00e9mu n\u00e1r\u016fstu n\u00e1klad\u016f na dopravu a zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00e1 hnojiva. V kombinaci se zaveden\u00edm v\u00fdvozn\u00edch omezen\u00ed zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fdch komodit producentsk\u00fdmi zem\u011bmi s c\u00edlem zajistit si sob\u011bsta\u010dnost by to mohlo v\u00e9st k nedostatku na sv\u011btov\u00fdch trz\u00edch a prudk\u00e9mu n\u00e1r\u016fstu cen na stratosf\u00e9rickou \u00farove\u0148.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud k tomu p\u0159id\u00e1me z\u00e1sah spekulativn\u00edch makl\u00e9\u0159\u016f na trhu s term\u00ednovan\u00fdmi zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fdmi komoditami, v\u00fdsledkem by byla spir\u00e1la rostouc\u00edch cen komodit, kterou by ekonomiky prvn\u00edho sv\u011bta neunesly, co\u017e by znamenalo konec Rozvojov\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f tis\u00edcilet\u00ed, jejich\u017e c\u00edlem bylo sn\u00ed\u017eit hlad ve sv\u011bt\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Podle OSN se tedy ji\u017e nach\u00e1z\u00edme na pokraji glob\u00e1ln\u00ed potravinov\u00e9 krize, kter\u00e1 zas\u00e1hne zejm\u00e9na Karibik, Mexiko, St\u0159edn\u00ed Ameriku, Kolumbii, Venezuelu, Egypt, Indii, \u010c\u00ednu, Banglad\u00e9\u0161 a jihov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asii a obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b siln\u011b zas\u00e1hne subsaharskou Afriku, kde by populace ohro\u017een\u00e1 hladomorem mohla podle analytik\u016f vzr\u016fst ze sou\u010dasn\u00fdch 800 milion\u016f na odhadovan\u00fdch 1,5 miliardy. Projekce Abdolrezy Abbassiana p\u0159edznamen\u00e1vaj\u00ed novou\u00a0glob\u00e1ln\u00ed\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fao.org\/fileadmin\/templates\/wsfs\/docs\/expert_paper\/How_to_Feed_the_World_in_2050.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">potravinovou krizi .<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><span dir=\"auto\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.observateur-continental.fr\/?module=articles&amp;action=view&amp;id=7705\">Germ\u00e1n Gorraiz L\u00f3pez<\/a> , politick\u00fd analytik<\/span><\/em><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Abdolreza Abbassian, ekonom z Organizace OSN pro v\u00fd\u017eivu a zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed (FAO),\u00a0agentu\u0159e\u00a0Associated Press\u00a0\u0159ekl , \u017ee k&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":102980,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,1941,371],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102979"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=102979"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102979\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/102980"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=102979"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=102979"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=102979"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}