{"id":102935,"date":"2026-03-26T00:23:48","date_gmt":"2026-03-25T23:23:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=102935"},"modified":"2026-03-25T10:33:05","modified_gmt":"2026-03-25T09:33:05","slug":"iranska-strategie-vyhlazovaci-valky-pepe-escobarova-analyza-epochalniho-konfliktu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/03\/26\/iranska-strategie-vyhlazovaci-valky-pepe-escobarova-analyza-epochalniho-konfliktu\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 strategie vyhlazovac\u00ed v\u00e1lky: Pepe Escobarova anal\u00fdza epoch\u00e1ln\u00edho konfliktu"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Sou\u010dasn\u00fd konflikt mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem, Izraelem a USA, kter\u00fd za\u010dal 28. \u00fanora 2026 masivn\u00edmi leteck\u00fdmi \u00fadery, p\u0159edstavuje zlom v geopolitice z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asie. To, co bylo p\u016fvodn\u011b pl\u00e1nov\u00e1no jako \u00fadajn\u011b rychl\u00fd \u201e\u00fader s c\u00edlem dekapitovat\u201c, se vyvinulo v ho\u0159kou vy\u010derp\u00e1vac\u00ed v\u00e1lku. V hloubkov\u00e9m rozhovoru s Glennem Diesenem odhaluje renomovan\u00fd geopolitick\u00fd analytik Pepe Escobar hlub\u0161\u00ed pozad\u00ed, \u00edr\u00e1nskou strategii a glob\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u016fsledky t\u00e9to v\u00e1lky. Escobar, jeden z posledn\u00edch zahrani\u010dn\u00edch korespondent\u016f \u201estar\u00e9 \u0161koly\u201c s des\u00edtkami let zku\u0161enost\u00ed v Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu, Ir\u00e1ku a \u00cdr\u00e1nu, popisuje konflikt jako dlouho pl\u00e1novan\u00fd boj o region\u00e1ln\u00ed dominanci \u2013 a jako boj o p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed odoln\u00e9ho \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Pepe Escobar: \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 strategie vy\u010derp\u00e1vac\u00ed v\u00e1lky\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Bzy0p_FeW30?feature=oembed\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Historick\u00fd a strategick\u00fd kontext: \u00cdr\u00e1n jako \u201eSvat\u00fd gr\u00e1l\u201c<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Od 90. let 20. stolet\u00ed je \u00cdr\u00e1n st\u0159edem z\u00e1jmu neokonzervativn\u00edho a sionistick\u00e9ho pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed. Pepe Escobar poukazuje na dokumenty, jako je Projekt pro nov\u00e9 americk\u00e9 stolet\u00ed a strategie \u201eClean Break\u201c, kter\u00e9 ji\u017e tehdy identifikovaly zm\u011bnu re\u017eimu v Teher\u00e1nu jako \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed c\u00edl. Slavn\u00e9 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed americk\u00e9ho gener\u00e1la Wesleyho Clarka po 11. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2001 \u2013 pl\u00e1n na \u201edobyt\u00ed\u201c sedmi zem\u00ed (Ir\u00e1ku, S\u00fdrie, Libanonu, Libye, Som\u00e1lska, S\u00fad\u00e1nu a jako kone\u010dn\u00fd c\u00edl \u00cdr\u00e1nu) \u2013 tuto kontinuitu podtrhuje. Ka\u017ed\u00fd americk\u00fd prezident od Bushe hovo\u0159il o \u201eose zla\u201c, ale pouze Trump se odv\u00e1\u017eil zah\u00e1jit tot\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00fatok.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">D\u016fvod: \u00cdr\u00e1n je jedinou region\u00e1ln\u00ed supervelmoc\u00ed, kter\u00e1 zpochyb\u0148uje hegemonii Izraele v z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asii. \u00dasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e1 vize \u201eVelk\u00e9ho Izraele\u201c vy\u017eaduje eliminaci nebo rozhodn\u00e9 oslaben\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Escobar zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee v\u00e1lka byla pl\u00e1nov\u00e1na od konce 90. let \u2013 nejen na 20\u201325 let, ale d\u00e9le. \u201ePavi\u00e1n v B\u00edl\u00e9m dom\u011b\u201c (Trump), obklopen\u00fd sionistick\u00fdmi vlivy a spekulanty, jako byl Jared Kushner (kter\u00fd obdr\u017eel miliardy od Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie a dal\u0161\u00edch), slou\u017eil jako dokonal\u00fd vymaha\u010d. Finan\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1jmy \u2013 od zbran\u00ed po nemovitosti \u2013 hraj\u00ed \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed roli: \u201eSledujte pen\u00edze.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u00datok za\u010dal masivn\u00edm \u00faderem proti \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9mu veden\u00ed, ale po pouh\u00e9 p\u016flhodin\u011b chyb\u011bl pl\u00e1n B. M\u00edsto rychl\u00e9ho v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed se operace zastavila. Trump musel ustoupit, kdy\u017e se finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy zhroutily: V\u00fdnosy z 10let\u00fdch americk\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f vy\u0161plhaly nad 5 % a ohrozily americk\u00fd finan\u010dn\u00ed syst\u00e9m. Escobar: Trh s dluhopisy byl d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e trh s ropou. \u00cdr\u00e1n okam\u017eit\u011b pop\u0159el jak\u00e9koli rozhovory s Trumpem a ozna\u010dil ho za lh\u00e1\u0159e \u2013 PR p\u0159evrat.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 strategie: Od obrann\u00e9 mozaiky k \u00fato\u010dn\u00e9mu oslabov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n prosazuje decentralizovanou mozaikovou strategii, kterou Escobar popisuje jako \u201eSmrt tis\u00edci \u0159ezy\u201c. Tato strategie, p\u0159ipravovan\u00e1 po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed \u2013 intenzivn\u011b od let 2005\/2006 \u2013 je zalo\u017eena na:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Podzemn\u00ed m\u011bsta s raketami (zejm\u00e9na v Sist\u00e1nu a Bal\u00fa\u010dist\u00e1nu pobl\u00ed\u017e afgh\u00e1nsk\u00fdch hranic), kter\u00e1 dosud nebyla nalezena americk\u00fdmi a izraelsk\u00fdmi silami. Jsou tam ulo\u017eeny des\u00edtky tis\u00edc raket a dron\u016f, chr\u00e1n\u011bn\u00fdch p\u0159ed nep\u0159\u00edzn\u00ed po\u010das\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Postupn\u00e9 odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed: \u00cdr\u00e1n pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 vysoce p\u0159esn\u00e9 syst\u00e9my jako Khorramshahr-4 a Fateh-2 st\u0159\u00eddm\u011b, ale efektivn\u011b. Nov\u00e9 zbran\u011b se objevuj\u00ed ka\u017ed\u00fd t\u00fdden \u2013 jde o technologick\u00fd man\u00e9vr.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">P\u0159echod od obrany k \u00fatoku: Pot\u00e9, co \u00cdr\u00e1n vy\u010derpal izraelskou a americkou protivzdu\u0161nou obranu (Arrow-3, Iron Dome atd. byly z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti neutralizov\u00e1ny), si vyb\u00edr\u00e1 c\u00edle s p\u0159esnost\u00ed. Nap\u0159\u00edklad m\u00edsto reaktoru v Dimon\u011b byla zasa\u017eena nedalek\u00e1 budova, kde s\u00eddl\u00ed v\u011bdci \u2013 jasn\u00fd vzkaz: \u201eM\u016f\u017eeme, ale (zat\u00edm) to neud\u011bl\u00e1me. Bombardujte Natanz, pokud to ud\u011bl\u00e1te, bombardujeme Dimonu.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n tuto novou f\u00e1zi naz\u00fdv\u00e1 \u201eVelk\u00fdm z\u00fa\u017een\u00edm\u201c: c\u00edlen\u00e9 \u00fatoky na civiln\u00ed infrastrukturu dvoj\u00edho vyu\u017eit\u00ed v Izraeli (rafinerie v Haif\u011b, vojensk\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed pobl\u00ed\u017e leti\u0161t\u011b Ben Guriona, kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 uzla st\u00e1tu). Civilist\u00e9 jsou z\u00e1m\u011brn\u011b \u0161et\u0159eni \u2013 na rozd\u00edl od \u201eteroristick\u00fdch re\u017eim\u016f\u201c Izraele a USA, kter\u00e9 bombarduj\u00ed obytn\u00e9 oblasti v Teher\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n dok\u00e1\u017ee tuto v\u00e1lku udr\u017eet m\u011bs\u00edce: nezve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00e9 z\u00e1soby, neust\u00e1l\u00e9 inovace a bezchybn\u00e9 obrann\u00e9 syst\u00e9my pro Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv (s pravidly \u201em\u00fdtnice\u201c: proplout mohou pouze lod\u011b bez kontaktu s Izraelem, poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9 a nach\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed se v \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch vod\u00e1ch). USA nemaj\u00ed neomezen\u00e9 zbran\u011b \u2013 dokonce stahuj\u00ed obrann\u00e9 syst\u00e9my z jin\u00fdch region\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Vnit\u0159n\u00ed stabilita a kontinuita: IRGC u moci<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Na rozd\u00edl od z\u00e1padn\u00edch nad\u011bj\u00ed nevedl atent\u00e1t na ajatoll\u00e1ha Chamene\u00edho k rozpadu zem\u011b. Mojt\u00e1ba Chamene\u00ed, nov\u00fd nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u016fdce, symbolizuje kontinuitu: po l\u00e9ta byl \u00fazce spjat s Isl\u00e1msk\u00fdmi revolu\u010dn\u00edmi gardami (IRGC) a t\u011b\u0161\u00ed se \u0161irok\u00e9 \u00fact\u011b. IRGC nyn\u00ed de facto vl\u00e1dnou zemi \u2013 p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed st\u00e1tu je jeho p\u0159e\u017eit\u00edm. \u0160\u00editsk\u00e1 etika mu\u010dednictv\u00ed a persk\u00e1 kultura posiluj\u00ed v\u016fli k odporu: \u201eTakov\u00e9 lidi nezlom\u00edte.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n tak\u00e9 zvl\u00e1dl um\u011bn\u00ed m\u011bkk\u00e9 s\u00edly: humorn\u00e1 videa (nap\u0159. figurky z Lega, \u201eDonalde Trumpe, jsi vyhozen\u201c) a chytr\u00e9 PR si z\u00edsk\u00e1vaj\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed Jih. Podpora tam je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jednomysln\u00e1 \u2013 \u201eimp\u00e9rium\u201c prohr\u00e1lo bitvu o ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed dimenze: \u00cdr\u00e1n bojuje o glob\u00e1ln\u00ed Jih<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar vn\u00edm\u00e1 tuto v\u00e1lku jako z\u00e1stupce multipol\u00e1rn\u00edho vzestupu. \u00cdr\u00e1n nebojuje jen za sebe, ale za cel\u00fd glob\u00e1ln\u00ed Jih proti \u201erakovin\u011b\u201c americko-izraelsk\u00e9 dominance. Rusko a \u010c\u00edna poskytuj\u00ed diplomatickou podporu, zpravodajsk\u00e9 informace a hardware (nap\u0159. vylep\u0161en\u00e9 drony Shahed, transportn\u00ed letadla Ilju\u0161in).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">BRICS je nicm\u00e9n\u011b v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b \u201ev k\u00f3matu\u201c: Vnit\u0159n\u00ed rozpory (SAE a Indie jako zr\u00e1dci \u00cdr\u00e1nu, Braz\u00edlie irelevantn\u00ed, Jihoafrick\u00e1 republika margin\u00e1ln\u00ed) paralyzuj\u00ed alianci. \u0160anghajsk\u00e1 organizace pro spolupr\u00e1ci (SCO) reagovala slab\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Z dlouhodob\u00e9ho hlediska z\u00e1vis\u00ed euroasijsk\u00e1 integrace na Rusku, \u010c\u00edn\u011b a \u00cdr\u00e1nu. V\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed nebo stabiln\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1n by projekt masivn\u011b pos\u00edlily \u2013 ne\u00fasp\u011bch by ho odrazil. Indie hraje riskantn\u00ed dvoj\u00ed hru (nap\u0159. torp\u00e9dov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 lodi), kter\u00e1 podkop\u00e1v\u00e1 jej\u00ed vlastn\u00ed strategii (koridor INSTC, vyva\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed sil proti \u010c\u00edn\u011b).<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n a dal\u0161\u00ed rizika: Nekontrolovateln\u00e9 prom\u011bnn\u00e9<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n (pod veden\u00edm Alijeva) a Turecko (s Erdoganem jako ochrannou vrstvou) z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed citliv\u00fdmi faktory. Izrael odeb\u00edr\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st sv\u00e9 ropy ropovodem BTC (Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan). Pokud by byl \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n zata\u017een do konfliktu (nap\u0159. \u00fatoky z jeho \u00fazem\u00ed), jsou pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9 masivn\u00ed n\u00e1sledky \u2013 \u00cdr\u00e1n ji\u017e poskytl d\u016fkazy o takov\u00e9m zapojen\u00ed v d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00edch f\u00e1z\u00edch.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Energetick\u00e1 architektura Eurasie by byla ot\u0159esena; Evropa, kter\u00e1 se spol\u00e9h\u00e1 na diverzifikaci, by \u010delila nov\u00fdm probl\u00e9m\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Nesmi\u0159iteln\u00e9 po\u017eadavky a propast<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 po\u017eadavky jsou maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed: \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed americk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny v z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asii (70-80 % je ji\u017e zni\u010deno), reparace (koluj\u00ed \u010d\u00edsla a\u017e 500 miliard dolar\u016f), ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u0161ech sankc\u00ed, voln\u00e9 pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed raketov\u00e9ho a jadern\u00e9ho programu.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">USA a Izrael po\u017eaduj\u00ed opak: kapitulaci, opu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00edch spojenc\u016f a odzbrojen\u00ed<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Dohoda je nemo\u017en\u00e1 \u2013 v\u00e1lka z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 na p\u0159elomu let. Jak\u00fdkoli \u201eodklon\u201c od pl\u00e1nu by pro Trumpa znamenal konec americk\u00e9ho imp\u00e9ria; z\u00e1rove\u0148 nem\u016f\u017ee splnit po\u017eadavky \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar varuje: Eskala\u010dn\u00ed stroj b\u011b\u017e\u00ed d\u00e1l, jen s p\u011btidenn\u00edm zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00edm. \u00cdr\u00e1n ji\u017e prok\u00e1zal svou schopnost masivn\u011b oslabit americkou p\u0159\u00edtomnost v regionu (nap\u0159. vyho\u0161t\u011bn\u00edm z Ir\u00e1ku po 23 letech).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Konflikt zm\u011bn\u00ed sv\u011bt \u2013 bu\u010f pos\u00edlen\u00edm multipol\u00e1rn\u00edho \u0159\u00e1du, nebo chaotickou eskalac\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Stru\u010dn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, Pepe Escobar vykresluje obraz vysoce p\u0159ipraven\u00e9ho a odoln\u00e9ho \u00cdr\u00e1nu, kter\u00fd je strategicky i mor\u00e1ln\u011b p\u0159ekon\u00e1n Z\u00e1padem. Arogance \u201eimp\u00e9ria\u201c, kter\u00e9 sv\u00e9 protivn\u00edky soustavn\u011b podce\u0148uje, by zde mohla dos\u00e1hnout sv\u00e9ho vrcholu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Zda v\u00e1lka skon\u010d\u00ed b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f, nebo se stane vleklou vy\u010derp\u00e1vac\u00ed v\u00e1lkou, z\u00e1vis\u00ed na schopnosti \u00cdr\u00e1nu pokra\u010dovat ve sv\u00e9 kart\u011b \u2013 vojensky, ekonomicky i narativn\u00ed. Pro glob\u00e1ln\u00ed Jih a euroasijskou integraci je to v\u00edce ne\u017e jen region\u00e1ln\u00ed konflikt: je to boj o budoucnost sv\u011btov\u00e9ho \u0159\u00e1du.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1185\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/kuryr-podpis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"24\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sou\u010dasn\u00fd konflikt mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem, Izraelem a USA, kter\u00fd za\u010dal 28. \u00fanora 2026 masivn\u00edmi leteck\u00fdmi \u00fadery,&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":102936,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,1894,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102935"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=102935"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102935\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/102936"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=102935"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=102935"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=102935"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}