{"id":102751,"date":"2026-03-24T05:09:40","date_gmt":"2026-03-24T04:09:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=102751"},"modified":"2026-03-24T05:09:40","modified_gmt":"2026-03-24T04:09:40","slug":"afghansko-pakistansky-konflikt-jak-iranska-krize-prizivuje-nebezpecnou-eskalaci","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/03\/24\/afghansko-pakistansky-konflikt-jak-iranska-krize-prizivuje-nebezpecnou-eskalaci\/","title":{"rendered":"Afgh\u00e1nsko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fd konflikt: jak \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 krize p\u0159i\u017eivuje nebezpe\u010dnou eskalaci"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Smrt\u00edc\u00ed \u00fatok na nemocnici v K\u00e1bulu signalizuje nebezpe\u010dnou eskalaci konfliktu mezi Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nem a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem. Zat\u00edmco se glob\u00e1ln\u00ed pozornost soust\u0159ed\u00ed na \u00cdr\u00e1n, prohlubuje se paraleln\u00ed krize. V ji\u017e tak nestabiln\u00edm regionu se sb\u00edhaj\u00ed ekonomick\u00e1 izolace, povst\u00e1n\u00ed a region\u00e1ln\u00ed rivalita.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco glob\u00e1ln\u00ed pozornost se i nad\u00e1le soust\u0159ed\u00ed na eskalaci konfrontace s \u00cdr\u00e1nem, odehr\u00e1v\u00e1 se mnohem m\u00e9n\u011b medializovan\u00e1, ale hluboce z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e1 krize. Minul\u00fd t\u00fdden se do zpr\u00e1v dostal\u00a0<\/span>smrt\u00edc\u00ed \u00fatok na nemocnici v K\u00e1bulu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, dosud nejhor\u0161\u00ed samostatn\u00fd incident v p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsko-afgh\u00e1nsk\u00e9m konfliktu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Michael Kugelman (vedouc\u00ed pracovn\u00edk pro ji\u017en\u00ed Asii v Atlantick\u00e9 rad\u011b) popsal\u00a0<\/span>\u00fatok<\/span><\/a>\u00a0na nemocnici v K\u00e1bulu jako symbol konfliktu, kter\u00fd se vymyk\u00e1 kontrole. Poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee nap\u011bt\u00ed mezi p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fdmi \u00fa\u0159ady a vl\u00e1dou v Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu vedenou T\u00e1lib\u00e1nem se vyost\u0159ilo kv\u016fli p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fdm obvin\u011bn\u00edm, \u017ee K\u00e1bul ukr\u00fdv\u00e1 militanty hnut\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan<\/span><\/a>\u00a0(TTP).<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u00e1kist\u00e1n v reakci na to eskalaci provedl leteck\u00e9 \u00fadery uvnit\u0159 afgh\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed, \u010d\u00edm\u017e d\u00e1le normalizoval vzorec p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00edch odvetn\u00fdch opat\u0159en\u00ed. Kugelman zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee ob\u011b strany \u010del\u00ed vnit\u0159n\u00edm tlak\u016fm, kter\u00e9 deeskalaci politicky n\u00e1kladn\u011b d\u011blaj\u00ed, a to i p\u0159es rostouc\u00ed humanit\u00e1rn\u00ed ob\u011bti. Riziko chybn\u00e9ho odhadu roste.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak jsem ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve\u00a0<\/span>argumentoval<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, hranice mezi Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nem a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem se st\u00e1v\u00e1 nov\u00fdm epicentrem nestability v ji\u017en\u00ed a st\u0159edn\u00ed Asii v r\u00e1mci tzv. nov\u00e9ho konfliktu \u201eAfgh\u00e1nist\u00e1n-P\u00e1kist\u00e1n\u201c. D\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem ji\u017e uk\u00e1zalo,\u00a0<\/span>jak<\/span><\/a>\u00a0rychle mohou lok\u00e1ln\u00ed povst\u00e1n\u00ed vyvolat mezist\u00e1tn\u00ed konfrontaci. Ve skute\u010dnosti, jak jsem\u00a0<\/span>psal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0ji\u017e v roce 2024, vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 v\u00fdm\u011bny raket mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem odhalily z\u00e1kladn\u00ed zranitelnosti bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho r\u00e1mce regionu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dnes se situace zna\u010dn\u011b zhor\u0161ila. Prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00e1lka s \u00cdr\u00e1nem fakticky ekonomicky izolovala Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1n, jak\u00a0<\/span>tvrd\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Mustafa Saqib (hostuj\u00edc\u00ed v\u011bdec na Rutgers University-Camden) . Obchodn\u00ed cesty p\u0159es \u00cdr\u00e1n, zejm\u00e9na p\u0159es\u00a0<\/span>koridor Chabahar<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, byly v\u00e1\u017en\u011b naru\u0161eny, co\u017e dus\u00ed ji\u017e tak k\u0159ehkou ekonomiku K\u00e1bulu. Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1n se tak st\u00e1v\u00e1 jak\u00fdmsi ekonomick\u00fdm ostrovem se v\u0161emi p\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00fdmi d\u016fsledky: rostouc\u00edmi cenami, nedostatkem z\u00e1kladn\u00edho zbo\u017e\u00ed a rostouc\u00ed z\u00e1vislost\u00ed na nestabiln\u00edm p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00edm obchodu s P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u016fsledky v\u0161ak sahaj\u00ed daleko za r\u00e1mec ekonomiky. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 krize ve skute\u010dnosti afgh\u00e1nsko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fd konflikt v mnoha ohledech zesiluje.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zaprv\u00e9 to v jist\u00e9m smyslu odv\u00e1d\u00ed pozornost glob\u00e1ln\u00ed diplomacie. Medi\u00e1to\u0159i, kte\u0159\u00ed by se jinak mohli soust\u0159edit na K\u00e1bul a Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1d, se nyn\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161inou zab\u00fdvaj\u00ed t\u00edm, jak zabr\u00e1nit \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1lce na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b, jej\u00edm\u017e st\u0159edem by byl \u00cdr\u00e1n\/Izrael.<\/span><\/p>\n

Za druh\u00e9, samotn\u00fd P\u00e1kist\u00e1n je pod rostouc\u00edm tlakem. Jak uv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed r\u016fzn\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy, Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1d v \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9m konfliktu kr\u00e1\u010d\u00ed po \u201elan\u011b\u201c (slovy Kamala Alama, \u010dlena Institutu pro st\u00e1tn\u00ed um\u011bn\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>)<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a balancuje mezi sv\u00fdmi vazbami s Teher\u00e1nem a strategick\u00fdm spojen\u00edm se Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bi\u00ed a v men\u0161\u00ed m\u00ed\u0159e i s USA.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie\u00a0<\/span>\u00fadajn\u011b<\/span><\/a>\u00a0po\u017eaduje od P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1vazky v r\u00e1mci obrann\u00e9 dohody z roku 2025, co\u017e vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1\u00a0<\/span>obavy<\/span><\/a>\u00a0z hlub\u0161\u00edho zapleten\u00ed. N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed analytici spekuluj\u00ed, \u017ee sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady v Rij\u00e1du by se sna\u017eily P\u00e1kist\u00e1n \u201ep\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit\u201c k\u00a0<\/span>\u00fatoku na \u00cdr\u00e1n<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. P\u00e1kist\u00e1n se pak jev\u00ed jako p\u0159et\u00ed\u017een\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

Toto p\u0159et\u00ed\u017een\u00ed je obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9 v Bal\u00fa\u010dist\u00e1nu, regionu, kter\u00fd spojuje P\u00e1kist\u00e1n, \u00cdr\u00e1n a Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1n propustn\u00fdmi hranicemi. Tato oblast je ji\u017e dlouho centrem p\u0159ekr\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edch se povst\u00e1n\u00ed. Skupiny jako\u00a0<\/span>Bal\u00fa\u010dsk\u00e1 osvobozeneck\u00e1 arm\u00e1da<\/span><\/a>\u00a0(BLA) a\u00a0<\/span>D\u017eaj\u0161 al-Adl<\/span><\/a>\u00a0p\u016fsob\u00ed p\u0159es hranice a zneu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed slabou st\u00e1tn\u00ed kontrolu. Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 v\u00e1lka s \u00cdr\u00e1nem oslabila Teher\u00e1nsk\u00fd vliv nad provinci\u00ed S\u00edst\u00e1n-Bal\u00fa\u010dist\u00e1n, a t\u00edm pos\u00edlila tyto militantn\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u00e1kist\u00e1n z\u00e1rove\u0148 \u010del\u00ed zes\u00edlen\u00e9 povstaleck\u00e9 aktivit\u011b doma. Obnoven\u00e1 kampa\u0148 BLA, spolu s p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edmi \u00fatoky TTP, zat\u011b\u017euje bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed s\u00edly, kter\u00e9 se ji\u017e zapojily do p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00edch operac\u00ed v Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu. Jasn\u011b se tak objevuje jak\u00e1si zp\u011btn\u00e1 vazba: vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed konflikt oslabuje vnit\u0159n\u00ed stabilitu, co\u017e n\u00e1sledn\u011b sni\u017euje schopnost zvl\u00e1dat vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed hrozby.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed vrstvu slo\u017eitosti p\u0159edstavuje role nadn\u00e1rodn\u00edch d\u017eih\u00e1distick\u00fdch skupin, jako je nap\u0159\u00edklad\u00a0<\/span>Isl\u00e1msk\u00fd st\u00e1t Chor\u00e1s\u00e1n<\/span><\/a>\u00a0(ISKP) a jeho \u201ev\u00e1lka\u201c proti bal\u00fa\u010dsk\u00fdm separatist\u016fm. Sbli\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed militantn\u00edch akt\u00e9r\u016f v regionu \u201eVelk\u00e9ho Bal\u00fa\u010dist\u00e1nu\u201c vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed \u00farodnou p\u016fdu pro koordinovan\u00e9 \u00fatoky, kter\u00e9 by se mohly roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it do St\u0159edn\u00ed Asie, Indie nebo i mimo ni. ISKP ji\u017e prok\u00e1zal sv\u016fj dosah v\u00fdznamn\u00fdmi \u00fatoky, mimo jin\u00e9 i v \u00cdr\u00e1nu v posledn\u00edch letech.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z ekonomick\u00e9ho hlediska jsou tyto dv\u011b krize zni\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed. Uzav\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed hranic mezi Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nem a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem, kter\u00e9 trv\u00e1 od konce roku 2025, ji\u017e naru\u0161ilo obchodn\u00ed toky. Vzhledem k ohro\u017een\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch tras jsou mo\u017enosti Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu zna\u010dn\u011b omezen\u00e9. Tato izolace podporuje inflaci a zhor\u0161uje humanit\u00e1rn\u00ed utrpen\u00ed. Pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b se tak\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed toky uprchl\u00edk\u016f, co\u017e d\u00e1le zat\u00ed\u017e\u00ed sousedn\u00ed zem\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Geopoliticky jsou d\u016fsledky stejn\u011b znepokojiv\u00e9. P\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9 v\u00fdzvy na v\u00edce front\u00e1ch sni\u017euj\u00ed jeho strategickou flexibilitu, zejm\u00e9na v dob\u011b, kdy se mus\u00ed orientovat ve slo\u017eit\u00e9 region\u00e1ln\u00ed dynamice zahrnuj\u00edc\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1n, Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bii a USA. Jak uv\u00e1d\u00ed jedna anal\u00fdza, Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1d riskuje, \u017ee\u00a0v \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9m konfliktu \u201e\u00a0<\/span>uv\u00edzne mezi spojenci \u201c.<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Mezit\u00edm se \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed iniciativy, od energetick\u00fdch koridor\u016f a\u017e po infrastrukturn\u00ed projekty, pot\u00fdkaj\u00ed s naru\u0161en\u00edm. Sa\u00fadskoarabsk\u00e9 diplomatick\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>konzultace<\/span><\/a>\u00a0s region\u00e1ln\u00edmi partnery, v\u010detn\u011b P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu, zd\u016fraz\u0148uj\u00ed, jak v\u00e1\u017en\u011b se o eskalaci v cel\u00e9m regionu diskutuje.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee USA a Izrael jsou odhodl\u00e1ny zap\u00e1lit<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod\u00a0. Katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed rozhodnut\u00ed Washingtonu zapojit se do izraelsk\u00e9 kampan\u011b proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu m\u00e1 zjevn\u00e9 d\u016fsledky\u00a0<\/span>i mimo Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a ovliv\u0148uje celou Eurasii a glob\u00e1ln\u00ed trhy.<\/span><\/p>\n

V t\u00e9to souvislosti z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 konflikt mezi Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nem a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem \u201edal\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1lkou, kterou sv\u011bt ignoruje\u201c. Ale jak dlouho? Vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 p\u016fsoben\u00ed mezi \u00edr\u00e1nskou kriz\u00ed a afgh\u00e1nsko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fdm v\u00e1l\u010den\u00edm nen\u00ed n\u00e1hodn\u00e9; je struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ka\u017ed\u00fd konflikt jasn\u011b navazuje na ten druh\u00fd, \u010d\u00edm\u017e vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed cyklus nestability, kter\u00fd je velmi obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 prolomit. I kdy\u017e je tato propojen\u00e1 krize dosud dostate\u010dn\u011b nedostate\u010dn\u011b informovan\u00e1, vy\u017eaduje nal\u00e9havou pozornost euroasijsk\u00fdch akt\u00e9r\u016f a struktur.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD.<\/a> v oboru antropologie, je soci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u011bdec specializuj\u00edc\u00ed se na etnick\u00e9 a n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 konflikty s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm v\u00fdzkumem geopolitick\u00e9 dynamiky a kulturn\u00edch interakc\u00ed<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Smrt\u00edc\u00ed \u00fatok na nemocnici v K\u00e1bulu signalizuje nebezpe\u010dnou eskalaci konfliktu mezi Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nem a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem. Zat\u00edmco…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":102752,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[118,1042,220,129],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102751"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=102751"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102751\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/102752"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=102751"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=102751"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=102751"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}