{"id":102750,"date":"2026-03-24T05:07:23","date_gmt":"2026-03-24T04:07:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=102750"},"modified":"2026-03-24T05:07:23","modified_gmt":"2026-03-24T04:07:23","slug":"zbynek-fiala-iran-ma-zatim-navrch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/03\/24\/zbynek-fiala-iran-ma-zatim-navrch\/","title":{"rendered":"Zbyn\u011bk Fiala: \u00cdr\u00e1n m\u00e1 zat\u00edm navrch"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Trump tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee s \u00cdr\u00e1nem vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1. \u00cdr\u00e1n tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee ne. Komu uv\u011b\u0159\u00edte?, pt\u00e1 se americk\u00fd ekonom Paul Krugman a vid\u00ed jen dal\u0161\u00ed den sebevra\u017eedn\u00e9ho \u00fapadku Ameriky jako velmoci.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Paul Krugman je ekonom, kter\u00fd r\u00e1d komunikuje, a tak byl tento nositel Nobelovy ceny dlouho z\u00e1rove\u0148 regul\u00e9rn\u00edm koment\u00e1torem na n\u00e1zorov\u00e9 stran\u011b\u00a0 New York Times. Vedle toho je\u0161t\u011b vedl odborn\u011bji zam\u011b\u0159en\u00fd blog, kter\u00fd t\u0159eba i t\u0159ikr\u00e1t denn\u011b d\u00e1val do souvislost\u00ed n\u011bjak\u00e1 d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 fakta. Nejpozoruhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed bylo, \u017ee to v\u017edy d\u011blal to zp\u016fsobem, kter\u00e9mu bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 porozum\u011bt i bez srolovan\u00e9ho harvardsk\u00e9ho diplomu v\u00a0ruce. K\u00a0tomu se d\u00e1 \u0159\u00edci jen pohrdliv\u00e9: To se mu to p\u00ed\u0161e, kdy\u017e m\u00e1 talent\u2026 A kdy\u017e mu to mysl\u00ed\u2026<\/p>\n

K\u00a0st\u00e1ru Krugman trochu polevil, ale \u00fapln\u011b neustal. V\u011bnuje se koment\u00e1\u0159\u016fm a podcast\u016fm aspo\u0148 na Substacku. Sype je tam klidn\u011b dvakr\u00e1t denn\u011b. A tak m\u00e1m na skle \u010derstvou reakci na dal\u0161\u00ed zvrat v\u00a0americk\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edstupu k\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu, kde se zat\u00edm zd\u00e1lo, \u017ee Trump by r\u00e1d v\u011bd\u011bl, jak by vypadal konec sv\u011bta.<\/p>\n

Ne\u017e d\u00e1m Krugmanovi slovo, jenom shrnu, co se m\u011blo v\u00a0regionu Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu st\u00e1t. V\u00a0p\u00e1tek dal Trump \u00cdr\u00e1nu jen dva dny na rozmy\u0161lenou, proto\u017ee jinak mu srovn\u00e1 se zem\u00ed v\u0161echny \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny, aby si vynutil voln\u00fd pr\u016fchod lod\u00ed Horm\u00fazsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem a kapitulaci re\u017eimu. \u00cdr\u00e1n na to odpov\u011bd\u011bl, \u017ee pak tedy podnikne podobn\u00e9 \u00fatoky proti infrastrukturn\u00edm za\u0159\u00edzen\u00edm sousedn\u00edch zem\u00ed, kde maj\u00ed Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny nebo z\u00a0jejich\u017e \u00fazem\u00ed \u00fato\u010d\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n \u010del\u00ed existen\u010dn\u00edmu ohro\u017een\u00ed, a tak by \u0161el do krajnost\u00ed., Ni\u010dil by nejen elektr\u00e1rny, radary a datov\u00e1 centra, nejen t\u011b\u017eebn\u00ed oblasti a komunikace, ale tak\u00e9 odsolovac\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed sousedn\u00edch zem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 poskytuj\u00ed obyvatelstvu v\u011bt\u0161inu pitn\u00e9 vody. Region by se stal neobyvateln\u00fdm. Lid\u00e9 by jej museli opustit. Zanikla by tak\u00e9 jeho ekonomick\u00e1 hodnota, proto\u017ee akutn\u00ed nedostatek ropy by urychlil snahy se bez n\u00ed obej\u00edt. Obrovsk\u00e9 investice do obnovy t\u011b\u017eebn\u00edho potenci\u00e1lu by pak ztratily smysl.<\/p>\n

Jak by se asi tato krize stup\u0148ovala? Invaz\u00ed americk\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed p\u011bchoty z\u00a0letadlov\u00fdch lod\u00ed? Jakmile se p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed k\u00a0\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm b\u0159eh\u016fm, lze je ni\u010dit i pom\u011brn\u011b levn\u011b. Izrael nazna\u010doval mo\u017enost pou\u017eit\u00ed jadern\u00e9 bomby. To by asi neskon\u010dilo jedin\u00fdm h\u0159\u00edbkem\u2026 \u017de by to za\u010dalo doch\u00e1zet i B\u00edl\u00e9mu domu??<\/p>\n

A te\u010f dejme slovo Paulu Krugmanovi:<\/p>\n

Je pond\u011bln\u00ed r\u00e1no. Donald Trump, alespo\u0148 prozat\u00edm, odvolal pl\u00e1ny na bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 civiln\u00ed infrastruktury. U\u010dinil tak proto, \u017ee podle n\u011bj prob\u00edhaj\u00ed velmi produktivn\u00ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00fdch se \u00fa\u010dastn\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da, neviditeln\u00fd dvoumetrov\u00fd b\u00edl\u00fd kr\u00e1l\u00edk a jeho kanadsk\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edtelkyn\u011b.<\/em><\/p>\n

To, co jsem pr\u00e1v\u011b \u0159ekl, nen\u00ed \u00fapln\u011b pravda. Trump ne\u0159ekl nic o neviditeln\u00e9m kr\u00e1l\u00edkovi ani o Kana\u010fance, ale podstata je pravdiv\u00e1. \u0158ekl, \u017ee prob\u00edhaj\u00ed velmi produktivn\u00ed rozhovory. A kr\u00e1tce nato \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da a \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 st\u00e1tn\u00ed m\u00e9dia \u0159ekla: ne, neprob\u00edhaj\u00ed. To se ned\u011bje.<\/em><\/p>\n

Ne\u0159eknu, \u017ee \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 st\u00e1tn\u00ed m\u00e9dia jsou nutn\u011b d\u016fv\u011bryhodn\u00fdm zdrojem, ale je pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee ve skute\u010dnosti \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed pravdu a prezident Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f bu\u010f l\u017ee, nebo fantaz\u00edruje, nebo oboj\u00ed. Neexistuje opravdu \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd d\u016fvod v\u011b\u0159it, \u017ee se n\u011bco z toho, co \u0159ekl, ve skute\u010dnosti d\u011bje.<\/em><\/p>\n

Pro\u010d to \u0159\u00edk\u00e1m, krom\u011b toho, \u017ee Trump v\u00a0minulosti \u010dasto nebyl zrovna up\u0159\u00edmn\u00fd? Existuj\u00ed t\u0159i d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 d\u016fvody, pro\u010d v\u011b\u0159it, \u017ee si to mo\u017en\u00e1 vym\u00fd\u0161l\u00ed.<\/em><\/p>\n

Za prv\u00e9, dostal se do velmi \u0161patn\u00e9 situace svou hrozbou sp\u00e1chat masivn\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd zlo\u010din, pokud \u00cdr\u00e1n neotev\u0159e Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv. Mus\u00ed hledat cestu ven. Jin\u00fd prezident v jin\u00e9 dob\u011b by mo\u017en\u00e1 \u0159ekl, \u017ee po pe\u010dliv\u00e9m zv\u00e1\u017een\u00ed jsme politiku p\u0159ehodnotili nebo n\u011bco podobn\u00e9ho. To Trump ned\u011bl\u00e1. Trump v\u017edycky vyhr\u00e1v\u00e1, nikdy nep\u0159izn\u00e1, \u017ee utrp\u011bl por\u00e1\u017eku. Nikdy nep\u0159izn\u00e1, \u017ee zm\u011bnil n\u00e1zor. Tak\u017ee \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1nci p\u0159i\u0161li k jednac\u00edmu stolu, ti velc\u00ed, siln\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nci, se slzami v\u00a0o\u010d\u00edch, a proto ned\u011bl\u00e1me to, co jsem sl\u00edbil – to je velmi \u201etrumpovsk\u00fd\u201c \u00fanik.<\/em><\/p>\n

Za druh\u00e9, pro\u010d by \u00cdr\u00e1nci v t\u00e9to chv\u00edli uzav\u00edrali dohodu? M\u016f\u017eeme hodn\u011b mluvit o tom, jak v\u00e1lka prob\u00edh\u00e1, ale je docela jasn\u00e9, \u017ee z pohledu \u00cdr\u00e1nc\u016f pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b vyhr\u00e1vaj\u00ed. Tedy, vojensky nevyhr\u00e1vaj\u00ed, ale to nikdy nebylo v pl\u00e1nu. Poda\u0159ilo se jim \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b prom\u011bnit to, co m\u011blo b\u00fdt bleskov\u00fdm svr\u017een\u00edm jejich vl\u00e1dy, v zdlouhav\u00fd souboj v relativn\u00ed schopnosti sn\u00e1\u0161et bolest, a v\u0161e nasv\u011bd\u010duje tomu, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1nci ani zdaleka nepropadaj\u00ed.\u00a0\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, zat\u00edm neztr\u00e1c\u00ebj\u00ed tis\u00edce lid\u00ed a n\u00e1\u0161 cel\u00fd \u017eivot nen\u00ed naru\u0161en, ale americk\u00e1 ve\u0159ejnost opravdu nem\u00e1 r\u00e1da vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ceny benz\u00ednu a nev\u011b\u0159\u00ed Trumpovi. \u010cas v t\u00e9to v\u011bci tik\u00e1 pro Trumpa jin\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem, ne\u017e jak\u00fd zjevn\u011b plat\u00ed pro \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd re\u017eim. \u00cdr\u00e1n m\u00e1 tedy v t\u00e9to situaci navrch. A je velmi t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 pochopit, pro\u010d by cht\u011bli uzav\u0159\u00edt dohodu, dokud n\u00e1s podstatn\u011b v\u00edce nepon\u00ed\u017e\u00ed.<\/em><\/p>\n

Nakonec zva\u017ete mo\u017en\u00e9 motivy. P\u0159edstavte si, \u017ee jste n\u011bkdo bl\u00edzk\u00fd Trumpovi, n\u011bkdo dost bl\u00edzk\u00fd na to, abyste m\u011bli skute\u010dn\u00fd vliv na jeho rozhodnut\u00ed a tak\u00e9 vnit\u0159n\u00ed informace. Pak jste mohli ud\u011blat b\u011bhem minul\u00fdch hodin n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed v\u011bc. Mohli jste prodat spoustu futures na ropu za velmi vysok\u00e9 ceny \u2013 cena ropy Brent p\u0159es\u00e1hla o v\u00edkendu 112 dolar\u016f \u2013 a pak je okam\u017eit\u011b odkoupit zp\u011bt po Trumpov\u011b ozn\u00e1men\u00ed o triumf\u00e1ln\u00edm pokroku. Ale je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e \u00cdr\u00e1nci \u0159ekli, \u017ee k tomu nedojde. A mohli jste tak dos\u00e1hnout velmi, velmi p\u011bkn\u00e9ho a velk\u00e9ho zisku.<\/em><\/p>\n

Tvrdit, \u017ee americkou politiku mo\u017en\u00e1 \u0159\u00edd\u00ed obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed s vyu\u017eit\u00edm d\u016fv\u011brn\u00fdch informac\u00ed, by v minulosti bylo pobu\u0159uj\u00edc\u00ed. Kdo si ale dnes mysl\u00ed, \u017ee je to mimo r\u00e1mec mo\u017enost\u00ed? Tak\u017ee se to v\u0161echno mohlo st\u00e1t.<\/em><\/p>\n

Posledn\u00ed pozn\u00e1mka k tomuto t\u00e9matu. Zamyslete se nad t\u00edm, jak moc se oslabila pozice Ameriky ve sv\u011bt\u011b, a to nejen zjevn\u00fdm ne\u00fasp\u011bchem p\u0159i podman\u011bn\u00ed si \u010dtvrt\u00e9 ligy, ale tak\u00e9 t\u00edm, \u017ee nyn\u00ed v\u0161ichni v\u011bd\u00ed, \u017ee se ned\u00e1 v\u011b\u0159it ni\u010demu. Ned\u00e1 se v\u011b\u0159it \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdm slib\u016fm, kter\u00e9 Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty d\u00e1vaj\u00ed. Ned\u00e1 se spolehnout na to, \u017ee Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty dodr\u017e\u00ed sv\u00e9 sliby, ani sv\u00e9 hrozby. Nejen sliby, ale i hrozby jsou neuv\u011b\u0159iteln\u00e9 v tom smyslu, \u017ee nejsou v\u016fbec d\u016fv\u011bryhodn\u00e9, a \u017ee v\u00fdchoz\u00edm p\u0159edpokladem by m\u011blo b\u00fdt, \u017ee cokoli tato administrativa \u0159ekne, je le\u017e.<\/em><\/p>\n

To je opravdu, opravdu \u0161patn\u00e1 v\u011bc. V\u00edte, vliv ve sv\u011btov\u00e9 moci nen\u00ed jen ot\u00e1zkou raket a bomb, i kdy\u017e se zd\u00e1, \u017ee i t\u011bch n\u00e1m za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 ub\u00fdvat. Je to do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry ot\u00e1zka toho, zda lid\u00e9 berou v\u00e1\u017en\u011b to, co \u0159\u00edk\u00e1te, co slibujete a \u010d\u00edm vyhro\u017eujete. A n\u00e1m nevl\u00e1dnou seri\u00f3zn\u00ed lidi.<\/em><\/p>\n

https:\/\/paulkrugman.substack.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Zbyn\u011bk Fiala<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Trump tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee s \u00cdr\u00e1nem vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1. \u00cdr\u00e1n tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee ne. Komu uv\u011b\u0159\u00edte?, pt\u00e1 se americk\u00fd…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":100826,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[38,1503,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102750"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=102750"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102750\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/100826"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=102750"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=102750"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=102750"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}