{"id":102456,"date":"2026-03-21T00:11:23","date_gmt":"2026-03-20T23:11:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=102456"},"modified":"2026-03-20T12:25:22","modified_gmt":"2026-03-20T11:25:22","slug":"ktere-produkty-krome-ropy-a-plynu-se-stanou-nedostatkovymi-kvuli-blokade-hormuzskeho-prulivu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/03\/21\/ktere-produkty-krome-ropy-a-plynu-se-stanou-nedostatkovymi-kvuli-blokade-hormuzskeho-prulivu\/","title":{"rendered":"Kter\u00e9 produkty, krom\u011b ropy a plynu, se stanou nedostatkov\u00fdmi kv\u016fli blok\u00e1d\u011b Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Blok\u00e1da Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu bude m\u00edt dopad na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku v \u0159ad\u011b odv\u011btv\u00ed. Seznam sah\u00e1 od polymer\u016f a polovodi\u010d\u016f a\u017e po hnojiva.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Expert pro agenturu TASS shrnul, kter\u00e9 produkty se kv\u016fli blok\u00e1d\u011b Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu stanou pro glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku nedostatkov\u00fdmi, a j\u00e1 jsem\u00a0<\/span>\u010dl\u00e1nek<\/span><\/a>\u00a0p\u0159elo\u017eil .<\/span><\/p>\n

Za\u010d\u00e1tek p\u0159ekladu:<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Od polymer\u016f p\u0159es \u010dipy a\u017e po potraviny: Jak zablokov\u00e1n\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu spou\u0161t\u00ed \u0159et\u011bzovou reakci<\/span><\/h2>\n

Nikita Bredichin, hlavn\u00ed investi\u010dn\u00ed analytik spole\u010dnosti Go Invest, hovo\u0159\u00ed o tom, kter\u00e1 odv\u011btv\u00ed, krom\u011b ropy a logistiky, jsou ohro\u017eena v\u00e1lkou na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu v d\u016fsledku v\u00e1lky na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b ovlivnilo p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ropn\u00fd, plyn\u00e1rensk\u00fd a logistick\u00fd pr\u016fmysl. Zat\u00edmco pozornost se soust\u0159ed\u00ed na ceny pohonn\u00fdch hmot, ostatn\u00ed odv\u011btv\u00ed z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed ve st\u00ednu, n\u011bkter\u00e1 dokonce v\u00edce trp\u00ed zablokov\u00e1n\u00edm tohoto \u017eivotn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9ho dopravn\u00edho uzlu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Stru\u010dn\u00fd p\u0159ehled<\/span><\/h3>\n

Nejprve se ale pod\u00edvejme bl\u00ed\u017ee na turbulence v glob\u00e1ln\u00edm palivov\u00e9m a energetick\u00e9m sektoru. Ceny ropy Brent vzrostly od 28. \u00fanora o v\u00edce ne\u017e 35 procent a v n\u011bkter\u00e9 b\u0159eznov\u00e9 dny (nap\u0159\u00edklad dnes, 18. b\u0159ezna) prolomily psychologickou hranici 100 dolar\u016f za barel.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mezit\u00edm spotov\u00e9 ceny zemn\u00edho plynu vzrostly o 50\u201380 procent v z\u00e1vislosti na regionu (v tomto po\u0159ad\u00ed Severn\u00ed Amerika, Asie a Evropa).<\/span><\/p>\n

Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed logistika se tak\u00e9 stala dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed, proto\u017ee ceny ropy vzrostly p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 40 procent.<\/span><\/p>\n

Polymery<\/span><\/h3>\n

Krom\u011b zastaven\u00ed dod\u00e1vek ropy a zemn\u00edho plynu blok\u00e1da p\u0159eru\u0161ila tak\u00e9 v\u00fdvoz rafin\u00e9rsk\u00fdch produkt\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Metanol je kl\u00ed\u010dovou slo\u017ekou p\u0159i v\u00fdrob\u011b plast\u016f, lepidel, barev a syntetick\u00fdch textili\u00ed. Zem\u011b Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu \u2013 p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm \u00cdr\u00e1n, Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie, Katar a Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty \u2013 se pod\u00edlej\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 22 procenty celosv\u011btov\u00e9 produkce methanolu. V roce 2025 se dodavatel\u00e9 z Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu pod\u00edleli 17,5 miliony tun methanolu, co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje 56 procent celkov\u00e9ho sv\u011btov\u00e9ho v\u00fdvozu (31,1 milionu tun). V\u011bt\u0161ina tohoto v\u00fdvozu, 16,8 milionu tun methanolu, sm\u011b\u0159ovala do asijsko-pacifick\u00e9ho regionu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podobn\u00e1 situace panuje u nafty. Krom\u011b p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9ho pou\u017eit\u00ed p\u0159i v\u00fdrob\u011b paliv se nafta pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 tak\u00e9 k v\u00fdrob\u011b polymer\u016f. Olefiny se extrahuj\u00ed z nafty a jsou nezbytn\u00e9 pro v\u00fdrobu plast\u016f, syntetick\u00e9ho kau\u010duku, vl\u00e1ken a detergent\u016f. Zem\u011b Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu se pod\u00edlej\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 25 procenty celosv\u011btov\u00e9ho v\u00fdvozu nafty, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e hlavn\u00edmi spot\u0159ebiteli jsou asijsk\u00e9 zem\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Krom\u011b obt\u00ed\u017e\u00ed se z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm komponent\u016f pro v\u00fdrobu polymer\u016f existuj\u00ed tak\u00e9 probl\u00e9my s exportem hotov\u00fdch v\u00fdrobk\u016f. \u00cdr\u00e1n, Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie, Katar a Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty produkuj\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 7 procent sv\u011btov\u00e9 produkce polymer\u016f, kter\u00e9 se pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed v obalov\u00e9m pr\u016fmyslu, p\u0159i stavb\u011b vodovodn\u00edch a plynovodn\u00edch potrub\u00ed, v automobilov\u00e9m a l\u00e9ka\u0159sk\u00e9m pr\u016fmyslu. Jedn\u00e1 se o kritick\u00fd pod\u00edl na glob\u00e1ln\u00edm trhu: pokud z trhu do\u010dasn\u011b zmiz\u00ed by\u0165 jen 5 a\u017e 7 procent dod\u00e1vek, ceny plast\u016f mohou vzr\u016fst o 30 a\u017e 50 procent.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee zem\u011b Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu sni\u017euj\u00ed produkci ropy a v\u00fdvoz ropn\u00fdch produkt\u016f ropovody je naru\u0161en, nedostatek polymern\u00edch surovin se pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zhor\u0161\u00ed. Asijsko-pacifick\u00fd region, vzhledem ke sv\u00e9 siln\u00e9 z\u00e1vislosti na extern\u00edch dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch a dlouh\u00fdch logistick\u00fdch tras\u00e1ch, ponese tyto ztr\u00e1ty nejv\u00edce. To n\u00e1sledn\u011b povede nejen k vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm cen\u00e1m polymer\u016f, ale samoz\u0159ejm\u011b i k vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm cen\u00e1m hotov\u00fdch v\u00fdrobk\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Polovodi\u010de<\/span><\/h3>\n

Dal\u0161\u00edm d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm odv\u011btv\u00edm, kter\u00e9 by mohlo b\u00fdt ovlivn\u011bno blok\u00e1dou Hormuzsk\u00e9ho tunelu, je polovodi\u010dov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl.<\/span><\/p>\n

Doposud poch\u00e1zelo z Kataru p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 98 procent v\u0161ech dod\u00e1vek plynu na Tchaj-wan (p\u0159edn\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 centrum polovodi\u010d\u016f, kter\u00e9 vyr\u00e1b\u00ed p\u0159es 60 procent sv\u011btov\u00fdch \u010dip\u016f, v\u010detn\u011b 90 procent t\u011bch nejmodern\u011bj\u0161\u00edch). Naru\u0161en\u00ed t\u011bchto dodavatelsk\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u016f by mohlo v\u00e9st k nedostatku energie na ostrov\u011b. Z\u00e1vislost na dovozu energie je zn\u00e1mou Achillovou patou Tchaj-wanu. To plat\u00ed zejm\u00e9na s ohledem na trend posledn\u00edch let, kdy se vy\u0159azuj\u00ed z provozu uheln\u00e9 a jadern\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny, co\u017e by mohlo \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b zm\u00edrnit nedostatek dod\u00e1vek. Pokud Tchaj-wan nedok\u00e1\u017ee rychle nav\u00e1zat z\u00e1sobovac\u00ed trasy z jin\u00fdch zem\u00ed, jeho z\u00e1sobn\u00edky plynu vydr\u017e\u00ed pouze asi dva t\u00fddny.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdpadek proudu v regionu by samoz\u0159ejm\u011b mohl zp\u016fsobit probl\u00e9my s dod\u00e1vkami energie do tov\u00e1ren na v\u00fdrobu \u010dip\u016f. Hlavn\u00edm probl\u00e9mem nejsou ani tak rostouc\u00ed ceny elekt\u0159iny, jako sp\u00ed\u0161e n\u00e1r\u016fst vadn\u00fdch v\u00fdrobk\u016f. Koneckonc\u016f, v\u00fdroba \u010dip\u016f je nep\u0159etr\u017eit\u00fd cyklus trvaj\u00edc\u00ed t\u0159i a\u017e \u010dty\u0159i m\u011bs\u00edce. I drobn\u00e9 v\u00fdpadky proudu mohou v\u00e9st ke ztr\u00e1t\u011b cel\u00fdch v\u00fdrobn\u00edch \u0161ar\u017e\u00ed, a t\u00edm i ke zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed dod\u00e1vek polovodi\u010d\u016f, jak tomu bylo v tomto odv\u011btv\u00ed v letech 2020 a\u017e 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hnojivo<\/span><\/h3>\n

Toto odv\u011btv\u00ed si zaslou\u017e\u00ed zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed pozornost, proto\u017ee na n\u011bm p\u0159\u00edmo z\u00e1vis\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed potravinov\u00e1 bezpe\u010dnost. Situace na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b, zejm\u00e9na blok\u00e1da Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu, ovliv\u0148uje trh z n\u011bkolika sm\u011br\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdroba hnojiv je p\u0159\u00edmo z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na plynu, proto\u017ee se z n\u011bj z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1 amoniak. T\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u0161echna dus\u00edkat\u00e1 hnojiva pro rostliny se vyr\u00e1b\u011bj\u00ed z tohoto plynu. Plyn tvo\u0159\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 80 procent ceny amoniaku. Jak\u00e9koli zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed cen paliv proto p\u0159\u00edmo ovliv\u0148uje zem\u011bd\u011blce.<\/span><\/p>\n

Omezen\u00ed lodn\u00ed dopravy p\u0159es Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv br\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdvozu zkapaln\u011bn\u00e9ho zemn\u00edho plynu (LNG) ze zem\u00ed Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu, zejm\u00e9na z Kataru. Katar produkuje p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 20 procent sv\u011btov\u00e9 produkce LNG. Tato omezen\u00ed zhor\u0161uj\u00ed fyzick\u00fd nedostatek LNG a zvy\u0161uj\u00ed ceny plynu. To m\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd dopad na cenu amoniaku a n\u00e1sledn\u011b i na hnojiva celkov\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Krom\u011b p\u0159\u00edmo zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00fdch v\u00fdrobn\u00edch n\u00e1klad\u016f je pozorov\u00e1n i fyzick\u00fd nedostatek hnojiv. P\u011bt zem\u00ed Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu \u2013 \u00cdr\u00e1n, Katar, Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie, Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty a Bahrajn \u2013 se pod\u00edl\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 34 procenty na celosv\u011btov\u00e9m objemu obchodu s mo\u010dovinou, nejb\u011b\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00edm dus\u00edkat\u00fdm hnojivem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Alternativn\u00ed hnojiva, jako jsou fosf\u00e1tov\u00e1 hnojiva, tak\u00e9 \u010del\u00ed logistick\u00fdm probl\u00e9m\u016fm. Jejich v\u00fdroba vy\u017eaduje kyselinu s\u00edrovou a s\u00edra, vedlej\u0161\u00ed produkt rafinace ropy, se tak\u00e9 ve zna\u010dn\u00e9m mno\u017estv\u00ed vyv\u00e1\u017e\u00ed ze zem\u00ed Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu a p\u0159edstavuje p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 40 procent celosv\u011btov\u00e9 popt\u00e1vky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Za zm\u00ednku stoj\u00ed, \u017ee Rusko je nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm sv\u011btov\u00fdm v\u00fdvozcem a druh\u00fdm nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm producentem hnojiv po \u010c\u00edn\u011b. Ani Rusko v\u0161ak nedok\u00e1\u017ee zcela uzav\u0159\u00edt mezeru v dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch. \u010c\u00edna by mohla probl\u00e9m zm\u00edrnit zru\u0161en\u00edm v\u00fdvozn\u00edch omezen\u00ed. Nedostatek LNG by v\u0161ak mohl v\u00e9st k poklesu \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 produkce a ohrozit potravinovou bezpe\u010dnost. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 jsou ameri\u010dt\u00ed producenti p\u0159et\u00ed\u017een\u00ed. USA samotn\u00e9 dov\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed hnojiva z Ruska. Maroko, v\u00fdznamn\u00fd dodavatel fosf\u00e1t\u016f, by mohlo zv\u00fd\u0161it sv\u016fj export, ale slo\u017eit\u00e1 logistika a rostouc\u00ed n\u00e1klady na dopravu \u017eenou ceny nahoru.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee k zablokov\u00e1n\u00ed pr\u016flivu do\u0161lo sou\u010dasn\u011b se zah\u00e1jen\u00edm aktivn\u00ed aplikace hnojiv na severn\u00ed polokouli, je pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee nedostatek na trhu bude p\u0159etrv\u00e1vat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle USGS (United States Geological Survey) je Katar druh\u00fdm nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm producentem h\u00e9lia na sv\u011bt\u011b a pod\u00edl\u00ed se 33 procenty na sv\u011btov\u00e9 produkci, hned po Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm se 42 procenty. H\u00e9lium je obvykle vedlej\u0161\u00edm produktem zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed zemn\u00edho plynu, ale net\u011b\u017e\u00ed se, pokud je jeho koncentrace ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e 0,1 procenta. V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Kataru v\u0161ak rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 zkapal\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed zemn\u00edho plynu pro v\u00fdrobu LNG vede k tvorb\u011b sm\u011bsi s jin\u00fdmi plyny (krom\u011b metanu). Koncentrace h\u00e9lia v t\u00e9to sm\u011bsi je v\u00fdrazn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, co\u017e \u010din\u00ed t\u011b\u017ebu ziskov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Odstaven\u00ed zkapal\u0148ovac\u00edch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed v Kataru m\u00e1 proto p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd dopad na produkci h\u00e9lia, co\u017e vede k deficitu ve v\u00fd\u0161i 30 procent celosv\u011btov\u00e9 spot\u0159eby. Ostatn\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u00ed producenti, USA a Rusko, mohou produkci rychle zv\u00fd\u0161it a deficit kompenzovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

I po znovuotev\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu bude dosa\u017een\u00ed p\u0159edchoz\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b exportu trvat n\u011bkolik m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f. Produkce v cel\u00e9m regionu se mus\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161it t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 o 50 procent ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed se sou\u010dasnou \u00farovn\u00ed (s p\u0159ihl\u00e9dnut\u00edm k poklesu od \u00fanora). Infrastruktura pro zkapal\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed plynu tak\u00e9 vy\u017eaduje \u010das na su\u0161en\u00ed, chlazen\u00ed a nakl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed. Export bude nav\u00edc pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b brzd\u011bn zna\u010dn\u00fdm p\u0159et\u00ed\u017een\u00edm p\u0159\u00edstav\u016f a \u200b\u200bnedostatkem plavidel pro v\u00fdvoz ropy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rychl\u00e9 pokryt\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00fdch deficit\u016f je proto prakticky nemo\u017en\u00e9, tak\u017ee v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch lze o\u010dek\u00e1vat trvale vysok\u00e9 ceny v t\u011bchto oblastech.<\/span><\/p>\n

Konec p\u0159ekladu<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Thomas R\u00f6per<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Blok\u00e1da Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu bude m\u00edt dopad na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku v \u0159ad\u011b odv\u011btv\u00ed. Seznam sah\u00e1 od…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":102457,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,6382,371,350,4134,276],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102456"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=102456"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102456\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/102457"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=102456"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=102456"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=102456"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}