{"id":102443,"date":"2026-03-20T05:13:12","date_gmt":"2026-03-20T04:13:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=102443"},"modified":"2026-03-20T05:13:12","modified_gmt":"2026-03-20T04:13:12","slug":"david-dvorak-jeste-jednou-urgentne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/03\/20\/david-dvorak-jeste-jednou-urgentne\/","title":{"rendered":"David Dvo\u0159\u00e1k: Je\u0161t\u011b jednou urgentn\u011b \u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Kdy\u017e se pod\u00edv\u00e1te doleva, doprava, nahoru nebo dol\u016f, v\u0161ude vid\u00edte nep\u0159ehl\u00e9dnuteln\u00e9 zn\u00e1mky \u017ee cel\u00fd hodnotov\u00fd Kolektivn\u00ed Z\u00e1pad (KoZa) je do kytek. Ten proces m\u00e1 objektivn\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u010diny a zastavit v podstat\u011b nelze, proto\u017ee m\u00e1 obrovskou setrva\u010dnost.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pod\u00edvejte se nap\u0159. na\u00a0z\u00e1soby plynu<\/a>\u00a0pro pot\u0159eby \u010cR \u2013 p\u0159i pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 zimn\u00ed spot\u0159eb\u011b maj\u00ed b\u00fdt na 20 dn\u016f, p\u0159i pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 celoro\u010dn\u00ed spot\u0159eb\u011b na 36 dn\u016f, p\u0159\u00edtok do z\u00e1sobn\u00edk\u016f je polovi\u010dn\u00ed ne\u017e odb\u011br z nich (cca 47 GWh\/den = dopl\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed, cca 95 Gwh\/den = odb\u011br).<\/p>\n

A stav je takov\u00fd, \u017ee v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu je uv\u011bzn\u011bno zhruba 50% z flotily LNG. EU nechce ani sly\u0161et o n\u011bjak\u00e9m obnoven\u00ed odb\u011bru z RF \u2013 d\u016fvod bude asi jedin\u00fd \u2026 nem\u016f\u017eete m\u00edt ekonomiku nastavenou na odb\u011br energi\u00ed od st\u00e1tu, kter\u00fd chcete v sebeobran\u011b napadnout.<\/p>\n

Na aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed topnou sez\u00f3nu plyn je\u0161t\u011b asi vyjde. Ot\u00e1zkou je p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed topn\u00e1 sez\u00f3na a co v\u0161e z toho m\u016f\u017ee vypl\u00fdvat. M\u00e1m za re\u00e1ln\u00fd p\u0159edpoklad, \u017ee plyn z Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu je\u0161t\u011b n\u011bjakou dobu proudit v pln\u00e9m objemu nebude a a\u017e \u2026 opakuji A\u017d \u2026 se znova obnov\u00ed, pak \u010cesko, kter\u00e9 je na konci trubek, zcela jist\u011b nebude zachra\u0148ov\u00e1no na \u00fakor n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu, jak n\u00e1m bylo slibov\u00e1no.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011br je zcela jednozna\u010dn\u00fd \u2013 je opravdu RE\u00c1LN\u00c1 \u0161ance, \u017ee \u010cesko bude m\u00edt akutn\u00ed nedostatek plynu. Nen\u00ed to o tom, \u017ee bude na burze drah\u00fd, ale o tom, \u017ee plyn nebude fyzicky k dispozici. Uv\u011bdomte si, \u017ee i napln\u011bn\u00ed z\u00e1sobn\u00edk\u016f i p\u0159i max. pr\u016ftoku n\u011bjakou dobu trv\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Co z toho vypl\u00fdv\u00e1?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Je velk\u00e1 pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee s bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00edm se podzimem bude nar\u016fstat rozkol v EU a ka\u017ed\u00fd bude cht\u00edt urvat pro sebe co nejv\u00edce. Kdo neurve, ten bude m\u00edt doma nespokojen\u00e9 obyvatelstvo a re\u00e1lnou hrozbu, \u017ee p\u016fjde mocensky \u201eod v\u00e1lu\u201c. St\u00e1ty EU se dostanou v podstat\u011b do stejn\u00e9 pozice jako monarchie na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b dnes \u2013 ty re\u00e1ln\u011b zji\u0161\u0165uj\u00ed, \u017ee vyhla\u0161ovan\u00e1 \u201eochrana\u201c od USA je fikce, resp. draze zaplacen\u00e1 fikce a p\u0159est\u00e1v\u00e1 b\u00fdt d\u016fvod tuto hru d\u00e1l hr\u00e1t, proto\u017ee USA nejsou schopny ochr\u00e1nit ani sv\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny v m\u00edst\u011b. Stoj\u00ed tak fakticky p\u0159ed volbou se tv\u00e1\u0159it, \u017ee USA st\u00e1le poskytuj\u00ed ochranu \u2026 a b\u00fdt p\u0159ed vlastn\u00edmi lidmi za \u0161a\u0161ky nebo riskovat nelibost USA, pokud by se za\u010dali za\u0159izovat podle reality. V EU to m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt podobn\u00e9 \u2013 st\u00e1ty za\u010dnou zji\u0161\u0165ovat, \u017ee deklarovan\u00e1 jednotnost a solidarita EU je fikce, resp. bruselsk\u00fdmi poplatky draze placen\u00e1 iluze.<\/p>\n

Cesta z bryndy ven<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Tak\u017ee znova apeluji \u2013 \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed je proces informa\u010dn\u00ed, proto ud\u00e1losti bude \u0159\u00eddit ten, kdo bude rozhoduj\u00edc\u00edm zp\u016fsobem ovliv\u0148ovat medi\u00e1ln\u00ed prostor. Je proto nezbytn\u011b nutn\u00e9 p\u0159estat diskutovat sv\u011btov\u00e9 cypoviny, kter\u00e9 stejn\u011b nezm\u011bn\u00edme a diskutovat \u010desk\u00e9 z\u00e1le\u017eitosti, probl\u00e9my a navrhovat \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed. Uv\u011bdomte si, \u017ee je tady podstatn\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st spoluob\u010dan\u016f. kter\u00fdm to je celkem bu\u0159t a necht\u011bj\u00ed b\u00fdt obt\u011b\u017eov\u00e1ni. Dal\u0161\u00ed podstatn\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st spol\u00e9h\u00e1 na \u201ehodnoty EU\u201c a podobn\u00e9 nesmysly, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e odm\u00edtaj\u00ed vid\u011bt realitu.<\/p>\n

O\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e1 realita<\/strong><\/h3>\n

V podstat\u011b je mo\u017eno \u0159\u00edct, \u017ee mohou nastat dv\u011b situace:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. EU a KoZa v\u0161e ustoj\u00ed a pak budou za hv\u011bzdy a \u201e\u0161\u00e9fy situace\u201c ti, kte\u0159\u00ed prosazovali a obhajovali EU s jej\u00edmi hodnotami<\/li>\n
  2. Nastupuj\u00edc\u00ed probl\u00e9my za\u010dnou zrychlovat rozpad EU a cel\u00e9ho KoZa \u2013 pak za \u201ehv\u011bzdy\u201c a p\u0159irozen\u00fdmi autoritami budou ti, kte\u0159\u00ed tohle p\u0159edv\u00eddali a maj\u00ed alespo\u0148 n\u011bjakou p\u0159edstavu co d\u011blat. A tady zd\u016fraz\u0148uji \u2013 maj\u00ed p\u0159edstavu co d\u011blat s \u010ceskem, odborn\u00edci na to, pro\u010d USA a KoZa upadaj\u00ed budou sice m\u00edt pravdiv\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy, ale nebudou na \u201ehlavn\u00ed koleji\u201c.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Jak p\u0159ibrzdit mo\u017en\u00e9 n\u00e1sledky \u2013 uve\u010fme si dva modely:<\/strong><\/h3>\n

    Prvn\u00ed<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 lid\u00e9 budou nete\u010dn\u00ed, lhostejn\u00ed, pasivn\u011b o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee n\u011bkdo za n\u011b n\u011bco ud\u011bl\u00e1, co\u017e v d\u016fsledku znamen\u00e1, \u017ee politici a \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edci, kte\u0159\u00ed maj\u00ed vliv na chod st\u00e1tu nebudou ani pod minim\u00e1ln\u00ed kontrolou. O\u010dek\u00e1vateln\u00fdm d\u016fsledkem nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bji m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt ztr\u00e1ta odpov\u011bdnosti za p\u0159ij\u00edman\u00e1 rozhodnut\u00ed, tedy lze o\u010dek\u00e1vat rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161e ve prosp\u011bch sv\u00fdch klanov\u00fdch skupin.<\/p>\n

    Druh\u00fd\u00a0<\/strong>\u2013 v medi\u00e1ln\u00edm prostoru se bude \u0161iroce diskutovat, kdo za situaci m\u016f\u017ee a jak bude s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edmi \u0161k\u016fdci nalo\u017eeno. V tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b je mo\u017en\u00e9 u n\u011bkter\u00fdch o\u010dek\u00e1vat racion\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00favahu ve smyslu, \u017ee jeho rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed by m\u011blo b\u00fdt v maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 m\u00ed\u0159e ve prosp\u011bch celku (st\u00e1tu), proto\u017ee jinak by jim mohly b\u00fdt v budoucnu pokl\u00e1d\u00e1ny nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00e9 ot\u00e1zky. Nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00ed analogii m\u00e1me po v\u00e1lce, tedy po r. 1945, kdy z\u00fa\u010dtov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159i\u0161lo a ne v\u017edy bylo pro jemnocitn\u00e9 povahy. Je t\u0159eba si uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee dav nelze detailn\u011b \u0159\u00eddit, proto p\u0159edchoz\u00ed diskuze, jak nalo\u017eit s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edmi \u0161k\u016fdci m\u016f\u017ee paradoxn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017eit m\u00edru budouc\u00edho n\u00e1siln\u00e9ho vypo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n

    St\u0159et s realitou<\/strong><\/h3>\n

    Osobn\u011b s\u00e1z\u00edm na to, \u017ee EU a KoZa situaci neustoj\u00ed a dojde k n\u00e1razu na ze\u010f reality \u2013 realitou je, \u017ee bez energi\u00ed to nep\u016fjde, vlastn\u00ed plyn a ropu v dostate\u010dn\u00e9m mno\u017estv\u00ed nem\u00e1me a nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00ed jsou a budou rusk\u00e9 zdroje. A kdo si mysl\u00ed, \u017ee jednoho dne se vyd\u00e1me do Moskvy s t\u00edm, \u017ee tedy\u00a0\u2026 sorryjako, my bychom ten plyn a ropu asi p\u0159eci jenom cht\u011bli \u2026\u00a0<\/strong><\/em>a Rusov\u00e9 radostn\u011b oto\u010d\u00ed kohoutkem s t\u00edm, \u017ee se nemohli do\u010dkat, tak t\u011bm bych r\u00e1d pouk\u00e1zal na historickou paralelu \u2013 za cara tehdy nechali delegaci \u010dekat p\u0159edpokoji tu\u0161\u00edm pln\u00e9 dva nebo t\u0159i dny, ne\u017e byli p\u0159ijati.<\/p>\n

    Na\u0161e budouc\u00ed \u010dek\u00e1n\u00ed na audienci v p\u0159edpokoji m\u016f\u017ee zkr\u00e1tit fakt, \u017ee se tady sami vypo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1me s p\u016fvodci rusofobie a budeme m\u00edt jasnou p\u0159edstavu, jak d\u00e1le.<\/p>\n

    Proto apeluji na ty, kte\u0159\u00ed jsou aktivn\u00ed v medi\u00e1ln\u00edm prostoru \u2013 nahazujte k diskuzi jako hlavn\u00ed \u010desk\u00e1 t\u00e9mata, probl\u00e9my a \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed, ostatn\u00ed si nechte jen jako zpest\u0159uj\u00edc\u00ed dopln\u011bn\u00ed.<\/strong><\/h4>\n

    David Dvo\u0159\u00e1k<\/a><\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Kdy\u017e se pod\u00edv\u00e1te doleva, doprava, nahoru nebo dol\u016f, v\u0161ude vid\u00edte nep\u0159ehl\u00e9dnuteln\u00e9 zn\u00e1mky \u017ee cel\u00fd hodnotov\u00fd…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":98612,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[285,1503,1008,310],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102443"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=102443"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102443\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/98612"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=102443"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=102443"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=102443"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}