{"id":102279,"date":"2026-03-18T06:23:40","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T05:23:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=102279"},"modified":"2026-03-18T06:36:48","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T05:36:48","slug":"trumpovy-a-netanjahuovy-zbrane-hromadneho-niceni","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/03\/18\/trumpovy-a-netanjahuovy-zbrane-hromadneho-niceni\/","title":{"rendered":"Trumpovy a Netanjahuovy zbran\u011b hromadn\u00e9ho ni\u010den\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Kdy\u017e politika spektaklu nahrad\u00ed strategii<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Trumpova administrativa se pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zap\u00ed\u0161e jako nejhor\u0161\u00ed v historii USA. Ne\u0159\u00edk\u00e1m, \u017ee nikdo nem\u016f\u017ee dopadnout h\u016f\u0159 \u2013 ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 americk\u00e1 prezidentstv\u00ed n\u00e1s u\u017e nau\u010dila, \u017ee je v\u017edycky mo\u017en\u00e9 klesnout je\u0161t\u011b hloub\u011bji. Je v\u0161ak t\u0159eba uznat, \u017ee s t\u00edmto druh\u00fdm funk\u010dn\u00edm obdob\u00edm u\u017e byly n\u011bkter\u00e9 rekordy p\u0159ekon\u00e1ny.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Nejv\u00edce zar\u00e1\u017e\u00ed nejen brutalita americk\u00e9 politiky \u2013 co\u017e nen\u00ed nic nov\u00e9ho \u2013 ale i amat\u00e9rsk\u00fd zp\u016fsob, jak\u00fdm je nyn\u00ed vedena. A co tuto amat\u00e9rskost \u010din\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b z\u0159eteln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, je rozd\u00edl mezi Trumpem 1.0 a Trumpem 2.0.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Trump 1.0 u\u017e m\u011bl lehkov\u00e1\u017en\u00fd, n\u011bkdy brut\u00e1ln\u00ed styl, ale st\u00e1le byl obklopen relativn\u011b profesion\u00e1ln\u00edm t\u00fdmem. Sta\u010d\u00ed se pod\u00edvat na slo\u017een\u00ed jeho administrativy, abychom se o tom p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dili. Navzdory vnit\u0159n\u00edmu nap\u011bt\u00ed a velkolep\u00fdm odchod\u016fm, kter\u00e9 poznamenaly jeho prvn\u00ed funk\u010dn\u00ed obdob\u00ed, v n\u00ed st\u00e1le zasedali \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edci z tradi\u010dn\u00edch struktur americk\u00e9 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti. Trump dok\u00e1zal b\u00fdt nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00fd, ale tak\u00e9 nev\u00e1hal rozlou\u010dit se s n\u011bkter\u00fdmi jest\u0159\u00e1by, kdy\u017e se situace stala p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 nebezpe\u010dnou.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Trump 2.0 na druhou stranu p\u0159ekvapil mnoho lid\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b n\u011bkter\u00fdch jeho b\u00fdval\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edznivc\u016f. Jeho n\u00e1vrat k moci byl n\u011bkter\u00fdmi jeho stoupenci, v\u010detn\u011b t\u011bch v zahrani\u010d\u00ed, vn\u00edm\u00e1n jako jak\u00fdsi politick\u00fd z\u00e1zrak. Prezident pora\u017een\u00fd v roce 2020, zapleten\u00fd do \u0159ady pr\u00e1vn\u00edch probl\u00e9m\u016f, p\u0159e\u017eiv\u0161\u00ed n\u011bkolik pokus\u016f o atent\u00e1t, a p\u0159esto se mu poda\u0159ilo vr\u00e1tit se do B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu. K tomu se p\u0159id\u00e1v\u00e1 cel\u00e1 politick\u00e1 mytologie, kter\u00e1 se kolem n\u011bj budovala n\u011bkolik let.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Pro sv\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edznivce tehdy Trump osciloval mezi n\u011bkolika protich\u016fdn\u00fdmi postavami: nepochopen\u00fdm politick\u00fdm g\u00e9niem, v\u016fdcem nucen\u00fdm jednat s nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdmi silami, nebo naopak t\u00edm, kdo uzav\u00edr\u00e1 dohody s \u010f\u00e1blem, ale nikdy nezapom\u00edn\u00e1 na z\u00e1jmy Ameriky.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u010casto jsem si kladl ot\u00e1zku, jestli Trump prost\u011b nedos\u00e1hl\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">sv\u00e9 \u00farovn\u011b neschopnosti<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0, kter\u00e1 je zn\u00e1m\u00e1 jako \u201ePetrov princip\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Proto\u017ee skute\u010dnou ot\u00e1zkou nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt jen Trump s\u00e1m, ale i jeho schopnost obklopit se spr\u00e1vn\u00fdmi lidmi.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Trump 1.0 se st\u00e1le mohl spolehnout na relativn\u011b solidn\u00ed t\u00fdm.<\/span><br \/>\n<span dir=\"auto\">Trump 2.0 n\u011bkdy bud\u00ed dojem, \u017ee u\u017e ani nedok\u00e1\u017ee sestavit jednodu\u0161e\u2026 kompetentn\u00ed t\u00fdm.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">B\u011bhem sv\u00e9ho prvn\u00edho funk\u010dn\u00edho obdob\u00ed Donald Trump udr\u017eoval \u00fazk\u00e9 vztahy s ur\u010dit\u00fdmi americk\u00fdmi politick\u00fdmi s\u00edt\u011bmi, kter\u00e9 se siln\u011b anga\u017eovaly v podpo\u0159e Izraele, zejm\u00e9na s t\u011bmi, kter\u00e9 byly napojeny na Americko-izraelsk\u00fd v\u00fdbor pro ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 z\u00e1le\u017eitosti (AIPAC) a miliard\u00e1\u0159e Sheldona Adelsona.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed akce tohoto obdob\u00ed byly na strategick\u00e9 \u00farovni v podstat\u011b symbolick\u00e9: p\u0159esun americk\u00e9ho velvyslanectv\u00ed do Jeruzal\u00e9ma nebo ur\u010dit\u00e9 omezen\u00e9 \u00fadery v S\u00fdrii, jejich\u017e c\u00edlem bylo sp\u00ed\u0161e vyslat politick\u00fd sign\u00e1l ne\u017e zm\u011bnit region\u00e1ln\u00ed vojenskou rovnov\u00e1hu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Pl\u00e1novan\u00fd politick\u00fd sled v\u0161ak byl hluboce naru\u0161en nep\u0159edv\u00eddanou ud\u00e1lost\u00ed: glob\u00e1ln\u00ed pandemi\u00ed COVID-19, kter\u00e1 p\u0159evr\u00e1tila mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed agendu naruby a p\u0159isp\u011bla k volebn\u00ed por\u00e1\u017ece v roce 2020.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Kdy\u017e se Trump pozd\u011bji vr\u00e1til do centra politick\u00e9 sc\u00e9ny, u\u010dinil tak s obnovenou r\u00e9torikou: \u201eAmerika na prvn\u00edm m\u00edst\u011b\u201c, sliboval odvodnit \u201eba\u017einu\u201c Washingtonu a prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee tou\u017e\u00ed ukon\u010dit ur\u010dit\u00e9 konflikty, zejm\u00e9na v\u00e1lku na Ukrajin\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Mezit\u00edm se p\u0159\u00edpad Jeffreyho Epsteina st\u00e1le znovu objevuje v d\u016fsledku po sob\u011b jdouc\u00edch vln odhalen\u00ed a \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e9ho odtajn\u011bn\u00ed. P\u0159\u00edpad neprokazuje zapojen\u00ed Donalda Trumpa \u2013 zejm\u00e9na proto, \u017ee s Epsteinem kolem roku 2004 p\u0159eru\u0161il vazby \u2013 ale udr\u017euje p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed atmosf\u00e9ru nejistoty.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Ot\u00e1zkou tedy nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt, zda tyto soubory skute\u010dn\u011b obsahuj\u00ed kompromituj\u00edc\u00ed materi\u00e1l, ale zda pouh\u00e9 vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed jejich existence m\u016f\u017ee ovlivnit politick\u00e9 chov\u00e1n\u00ed t\u011bch, kte\u0159\u00ed se c\u00edt\u00ed b\u00fdt potenci\u00e1ln\u00edm c\u00edlem.\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">V mocensk\u00e9 dynamice nen\u00ed v\u017edy d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 existence souboru, ale v\u00edra, \u017ee by mohl existovat.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Trump 1.0 st\u00e1le p\u0159ipom\u00ednal prezidentsk\u00e9 \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed jako \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed realitn\u00edho developera. Diplomacie se stala obchodn\u00edm vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm: maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed tlak, hrozby, neust\u00e1l\u00e9 smlouv\u00e1n\u00ed a nakonec kone\u010dn\u00e1 dohoda prezentovan\u00e1 jako v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed. Metoda se mohla zd\u00e1t brut\u00e1ln\u00ed, n\u011bkdy improvizovan\u00e1, ale z\u016fstala rozpoznateln\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Trump 2.0\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">je jin\u00fd.<\/span><\/strong><br \/>\n<span dir=\"auto\">U\u017e to nen\u00ed spr\u00e1va nemovitost\u00ed aplikovan\u00e1 na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed politiku.<\/span><br \/>\n<span dir=\"auto\">Je to prezidentsk\u00e9 obdob\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se zu\u0159iv\u011b \u0159\u00edd\u00ed pravidly jin\u00e9ho vesm\u00edru:\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">vesm\u00edru profesion\u00e1ln\u00edho wrestlingu.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Ve wrestlingu se v\u0161echno to\u010d\u00ed kolem pod\u00edvan\u00e9. Z\u00e1pasy jsou velkolep\u00e9, provokace neust\u00e1l\u00e9, zvraty v d\u011bji nep\u0159etr\u017eit\u00e9. Publikum osciluje mezi v\u00edrou v show a jej\u00edm vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00edm. A c\u00edlem nen\u00ed ani tak vyhr\u00e1t z\u00e1pas, jako sp\u00ed\u0161e udr\u017eet si pozornost.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Americk\u00e1 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politika dnes p\u016fsob\u00ed t\u00edmto dojmem<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Celn\u00ed hrozby se objevuj\u00ed jako dramatick\u00e9 zvraty. Ozn\u00e1men\u00ed o nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00fdch \u00fazemn\u00edch akvizic\u00edch \u2013 v\u010dera Gr\u00f3nsko, dnes nar\u00e1\u017eky na Kanadu \u2013 se jev\u00ed jako promy\u0161len\u00e9 provokace. Evropsk\u00fdm spojenc\u016fm je ve\u0159ejn\u011b p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1no jejich postaven\u00ed druho\u0159ad\u00fdch partner\u016f, n\u011bkdy dokonce pouh\u00fdch prom\u011bnn\u00fdch ve strategii, kter\u00e1 se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt improvizov\u00e1na ze dne na den.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Tento styl m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 efekty, kter\u00e9 by mohly v\u00e9st k velkolep\u00fdm v\u00fdsledk\u016fm. V z\u00e1pase dav okam\u017eit\u011b reaguje na p\u0159ehnan\u00e1 gesta, provokace a dramatick\u00e9 zvraty. V mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed politice je v\u0161ak logika jin\u00e1:\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">st\u00e1ty pozoruj\u00ed, analyzuj\u00ed a p\u0159izp\u016fsobuj\u00ed se.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">A pr\u00e1v\u011b tam se objevuj\u00ed prvn\u00ed praskliny.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Pokus o vynucen\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed v rusko-ukrajinsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lce je toho dobr\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edkladem. Washington se ocitl v paradoxn\u00ed situaci, kdy ozn\u00e1mil diplomatickou iniciativu, ani\u017e by ve skute\u010dnosti m\u011bl politick\u00e9 prost\u0159edky k tomu, aby sv\u00e9 podm\u00ednky vnutil Moskv\u011b nebo dokonce Kyjevu. Tato epizoda p\u016fsobila dojmem diplomacie vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00e9 je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e byla v\u016fbec vyjedn\u00e1na.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Obchodn\u00ed konfrontace s \u010c\u00ednou vyvolala podobn\u00fd dojem. Masivn\u00ed celn\u00ed hrozby, oslavovan\u00e9 jako rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed n\u00e1stroj pro vyv\u00edjen\u00ed tlaku, rychle narazily na sv\u00e1 vlastn\u00ed pr\u00e1vn\u00ed a ekonomick\u00e1 omezen\u00ed. I zde dramatick\u00e9 ozn\u00e1men\u00ed p\u0159edch\u00e1zelo skute\u010dn\u00e9 mo\u017enosti jeho vym\u00e1h\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V obou p\u0159\u00edpadech z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 logika stejn\u00e1: medializovan\u00e1 demonstrace moci, n\u00e1sledovan\u00e1 diskr\u00e9tn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm n\u00e1vratem k omezen\u00edm reality.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">A pr\u00e1v\u011b v t\u00e9to meze\u0159e mezi inscenac\u00ed a strategickou realitou se p\u0159ipravuje dal\u0161\u00ed sekvence.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Tato nov\u00e1 sekvence na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b dokonale ilustruje tuto logiku spektaklu<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Samotn\u00fd \u00fatok byl proveden t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 a\u017e\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">ohromuj\u00edc\u00edm zp\u016fsobem p\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00fdm a p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm bez sebemen\u0161\u00ed fantazie.<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0V mnoha ohledech p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 opakov\u00e1n\u00ed \u010dervna 2025, tentokr\u00e1t v\u0161ak\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">chyb\u00ed jeden z\u00e1sadn\u00ed prvek: prvek p\u0159ekvapen\u00ed.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Operace infiltrace dron\u016f ji\u017e nebyly mo\u017en\u00e9 a v\u011bt\u0161ina agentsk\u00fdch s\u00edt\u00ed Mossadu v \u00cdr\u00e1nu byla z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti rozbita. Podm\u00ednky, kter\u00e9 umo\u017enily \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e9 \u00fasp\u011bchy z p\u0159edchoz\u00edho roku, ji\u017e neexistovaly.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Izrael a jeho ameri\u010dt\u00ed vazalov\u00e9 se proto zd\u00e1li hr\u00e1t svou posledn\u00ed kartu, p\u0159esto\u017ee jedn\u00e1n\u00ed ofici\u00e1ln\u011b st\u00e1le prob\u00edhala.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Nicm\u00e9n\u011b existovala jedna indicie, kter\u00e1 t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 umo\u017e\u0148ovala odhadnout, \u017ee k \u00faderu dojde<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Osobn\u011b jsem to pochopil v den, kdy podle n\u011bkter\u00fdch diplomatick\u00fdch zpr\u00e1v Benjamin Netanjahu kontaktoval Vladimira Putina a po\u017e\u00e1dal ho, aby \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9mu veden\u00ed p\u0159edal\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u201e<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0uji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed, \u017ee Izrael nezah\u00e1j\u00ed \u00fatok\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u201c<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0.<\/span><br \/>\n<span dir=\"auto\">V ur\u010dit\u00fdch diplomatick\u00fdch sekvenc\u00edch\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">tento typ uji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed n\u011bkdy p\u0159edstavuje nejjist\u011bj\u0161\u00ed znamen\u00ed, \u017ee o vojensk\u00e9 operaci ji\u017e bylo rozhodnuto.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Je t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 uv\u011b\u0159it, \u017ee politi\u010dt\u00ed profesion\u00e1lov\u00e9 \u2013 a t\u00edm sp\u00ed\u0161e \u00edr\u00e1n\u0161t\u00ed v\u016fdci \u2013 nech\u00e1pali podstatu tohoto sign\u00e1lu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"auto\">N\u011bkdo pak nam\u00edtne: pokud byl man\u00e9vr tak p\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00fd, pro\u010d se Teher\u00e1n v\u016fbec pustil do n\u011b\u010deho, co by mohlo p\u0159ipom\u00ednat fingovan\u00e9 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Reakce je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b strategick\u00e1. Odm\u00edtnut\u00ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed by agresor\u016fm okam\u017eit\u011b poskytlo perfektn\u00ed z\u00e1minku: \u00cdr\u00e1n by byl tvrdohlav\u011b nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fd k dialogu, a proto by byl zodpov\u011bdn\u00fd za eskalaci. T\u00edm, \u017ee Teher\u00e1n souhlasil s t\u00edm, \u017ee rozhovory budou otev\u0159en\u00e9 a\u017e do sam\u00e9ho konce, si naopak zajistil, \u017ee politick\u00e1 odpov\u011bdnost za jejich rozpad bude jasn\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n byl tedy ochoten utrp\u011bt bolestiv\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty, ale na opl\u00e1tku ve\u0159ejn\u011b odhaloval to, co \u00edr\u00e1n\u0161t\u00ed v\u016fdci pova\u017euj\u00ed za skute\u010dn\u00fd probl\u00e9m:\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">rozpor mezi diplomatickou r\u00e9torikou vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed a sou\u010dasnou p\u0159\u00edpravou vojensk\u00e9 operace.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">A pr\u00e1v\u011b v tomto bod\u011b logika strategick\u00e9 pod\u00edvan\u00e9 dosahuje sv\u00fdch limit\u016f. Demonstrace s\u00edly m\u00e1 smysl pouze tehdy, pokud skute\u010dn\u011b zm\u011bn\u00ed rovnov\u00e1hu sil. V tomto konkr\u00e9tn\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b se v\u0161ak zd\u00e1lo, \u017ee st\u00e1vka nem\u011bla ani tak zm\u011bnit strategickou situaci, jako sp\u00ed\u0161e udr\u017eet iluzi iniciativy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Sc\u00e9na byla velkolep\u00e1. \u00dadery byly viditeln\u00e9.<\/span><br \/>\n<strong><span dir=\"auto\">Ale ta prav\u00e1 hra se odehr\u00e1vala jinde.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed si nyn\u00ed kladou ot\u00e1zku, zda m\u00e1 Donald Trump pl\u00e1n B, jak se z t\u00e9to situace dostat. Ale p\u0159i pohledu na sled ud\u00e1lost\u00ed jako celek je \u010dlov\u011bk v poku\u0161en\u00ed formulovat jednodu\u0161\u0161\u00ed hypot\u00e9zu:\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">ve skute\u010dnosti je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee pl\u00e1n A nikdy neexistoval.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Dynamiku eskalace z\u0159ejm\u011b do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry diktovala izraelsk\u00e1 iniciativa. Netanjahu z\u0159ejm\u011b sehr\u00e1l rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed roli a dotla\u010dil Washington k demonstraci s\u00edly, jej\u00ed\u017e skute\u010dn\u00e9 d\u016fsledky se zd\u00e1ly b\u00fdt nedostate\u010dn\u011b posouzeny.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 p\u0159edlo\u017een\u00fd B\u00edl\u00e9mu domu se mohl zd\u00e1t l\u00e1kav\u00fd svou jednoduchost\u00ed: nasadit americkou arm\u00e1du v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu, zap\u016fsobit na Teher\u00e1n a pot\u00e9 v prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edch jedn\u00e1n\u00edch dos\u00e1hnout v\u00fdznamn\u00fdch \u00fastupk\u016f. <\/span><span dir=\"auto\">Jakmile v\u0161ak byly s\u00edly na m\u00edst\u011b, logika situace se obr\u00e1tila.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Proto\u017ee pokud byla nastra\u017eena past, nemuselo b\u00fdt nastra\u017eeno proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Mohlo to b\u00fdt klidn\u011b nam\u00ed\u0159eno proti samotn\u00e9mu Donaldu Trumpovi.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">28. \u00fanora 2026, kdy byla zah\u00e1jena izraelsk\u00e1 operace \u2013 p\u0159ezd\u00edvan\u00e1 \u201e\u0158vouc\u00ed lev\u201c,\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">lichotiv\u00e9 ozna\u010den\u00ed pro \u00fadajn\u011b \u201eosvobozen\u00fd\u201c \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd lid<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0, p\u0159ipom\u00ednaj\u00edc\u00ed lva b\u00fdval\u00e9 monarchie, ale ve skute\u010dnosti symbolizovan\u00e9ho\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">sv\u00e1tkem Purim<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0\u2013 se strategick\u00fd apar\u00e1t stal t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 automatick\u00fdm. Americk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny roztrou\u0161en\u00e9 po cel\u00e9m regionu se okam\u017eit\u011b staly potenci\u00e1ln\u00edmi c\u00edli, co\u017e Washington vt\u00e1hlo do dynamiky eskalace, jej\u00ed\u017e tempo ji\u017e pln\u011b nekontroloval.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Jeden detail tento dojem posiluje: \u017e\u00e1dost Donalda Trumpa o p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed nep\u0159i\u0161la o dvan\u00e1ct dn\u00ed pozd\u011bji, ale\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">sotva dvan\u00e1ct hodin po zah\u00e1jen\u00ed operac\u00ed<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0, jako rychl\u00fd pokus o vyman\u011bn\u00ed se ze situace, kter\u00e1 se stala nebezpe\u010dn\u011b nekontrolovatelnou.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Existuje v\u0161ak je\u0161t\u011b jeden, m\u00e9n\u011b z\u00e1va\u017en\u00fd, ale stejn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd faktor, kter\u00fd pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b ovlivnil volbu na\u010dasov\u00e1n\u00ed st\u00e1vky: ideologick\u00e9 a symbolick\u00e9 pozad\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">K \u00fatoku do\u0161lo v dob\u011b pln\u00e9 n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9ho a historick\u00e9ho v\u00fdznamu. \u017didovsk\u00fd sv\u00e1tek\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Purim<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0, kter\u00fd v biblick\u00e9 tradici p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 por\u00e1\u017eku nep\u0159\u00e1tel \u017did\u016f ve starov\u011bk\u00e9 Persk\u00e9 \u0159\u00ed\u0161i \u2013 epizoda, kter\u00e1 podle\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">knihy Ester<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0zahrnuje p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 75 000 nep\u0159\u00e1tel \u017did\u016f zabit\u00fdch v Persk\u00e9 \u0159\u00ed\u0161i\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">(Ester 9:16) \u2013 m\u00e1<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0v n\u011bkter\u00fdch izraelsk\u00fdch politick\u00fdch a n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00fdch kruz\u00edch siln\u00fd symbolick\u00fd rozm\u011br. Pro mesi\u00e1\u0161sky orientovan\u00e9 proudy tento typ historick\u00e9ho odkazu n\u011bkdy \u017eiv\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 mytologick\u00e9 vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho konfliktu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Tento symbolick\u00fd rozm\u011br s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed p\u0159isp\u011bl k ur\u010den\u00ed na\u010dasov\u00e1n\u00ed operace a u n\u011bkter\u00fdch osob s rozhodovac\u00ed pravomoc\u00ed pos\u00edlil iluzi rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed historick\u00e9 iniciativy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Zd\u00e1 se v\u0161ak, \u017ee byl do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry podcen\u011bn dal\u0161\u00ed prvek: pr\u00e1v\u011b v okam\u017eiku zah\u00e1jen\u00ed operace vstupoval muslimsk\u00fd sv\u011bt do m\u011bs\u00edce\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">ramad\u00e1nu<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V z\u00e1padn\u00ed p\u0159edstavivosti je p\u016fst \u010dasto interpretov\u00e1n jako faktor slabosti, ale v mnoha muslimsk\u00fdch spole\u010dnostech funguje sp\u00ed\u0161e jako \u010das\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">mor\u00e1ln\u00edho pos\u00edlen\u00ed a kolektivn\u00ed solidarity<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0, zejm\u00e9na v dob\u00e1ch t\u011b\u017ekost\u00ed.<\/span><br \/>\n<span dir=\"auto\">Ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti v Gaze ji\u017e uk\u00e1zaly, \u017ee tento typ obdob\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt opa\u010dn\u00fd efekt, ne\u017e si n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed strat\u00e9gov\u00e9 p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Jin\u00fdmi slovy, pr\u00e1v\u011b v okam\u017eiku, kdy si n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed v\u016fdci mysleli, \u017ee \u00fato\u010d\u00ed na \u00fadajn\u011b oslaben\u00e9ho protivn\u00edka, ve skute\u010dnosti riskovali pos\u00edlen\u00ed symbolick\u00e9ho a politick\u00e9ho rozm\u011bru konfrontace.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Skute\u010dn\u00e9 d\u016fsledky t\u00e9to vojensk\u00e9 sekvence se v\u0161ak neodehr\u00e1ly pouze na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Rychle se p\u0159esunula k jednomu z nervov\u00fdch center glob\u00e1ln\u00edho energetick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu:\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Hormuzsk\u00e9mu pr\u016flivu<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed byl tento \u00fazk\u00fd pr\u016fliv hlavn\u00ed tepnou, kterou proch\u00e1z\u00ed zna\u010dn\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st ropy a plynu vyv\u00e1\u017een\u00e9ho z Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu. Jak\u00e9koli naru\u0161en\u00ed v t\u00e9to oblasti m\u00e1 proto okam\u017eit\u00e9 d\u016fsledky pro cel\u00fd glob\u00e1ln\u00ed trh s energi\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Ale pr\u00e1v\u011b v t\u00e9to oblasti za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 logika demonstrace s\u00edly odhalovat sv\u00e1 omezen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Proto\u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 s\u00edle \u2013 a doprovodn\u00fdm izraelsk\u00fdm operac\u00edm \u2013 nutn\u011b neusiluje o p\u0159\u00edmou konfrontaci. Jeho strategi\u00ed je sp\u00ed\u0161e jednat v oblastech, kter\u00e9 strat\u00e9gov\u00e9 naz\u00fdvaj\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">body syst\u00e9mov\u00e9 zranitelnosti<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0: v oblastech, kde omezen\u00e9 naru\u0161en\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt nep\u0159im\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dinky.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv je toho dokonal\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edkladem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Teher\u00e1n sice nevlastn\u00ed flotilu srovnatelnou se Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty, ale m\u00e1 technick\u00e9 prost\u0159edky k naru\u0161en\u00ed plavby v regionu na del\u0161\u00ed dobu: drony, n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed miny a c\u00edlen\u00e9 \u00fatoky na p\u0159\u00edstavn\u00ed infrastrukturu nebo ropn\u00e9 tankery. V tak omezen\u00e9m n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edm prostoru n\u011bkdy sta\u010d\u00ed k do\u010dasn\u00e9mu paralyzov\u00e1n\u00ed dopravy i n\u011bkolik incident\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V\u00fdsledek je paradoxn\u00ed. Zat\u00edmco se Washington sna\u017e\u00ed demonstrovat svou vojenskou p\u0159evahu, pozornost sv\u011bta se n\u00e1hle p\u0159esouv\u00e1 k jin\u00e9 realit\u011b: <\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">k\u0159ehkosti glob\u00e1ln\u00edho energetick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Pr\u00e1v\u011b v t\u00e9to souvislosti se o dva t\u00fddny pozd\u011bji americk\u00e1 administrativa \u2013 n\u00e1hle si vzpomn\u011bla na sv\u00e9\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">dosud opovrhovan\u00e9<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0\u201espojence\u201c \u2013 pokusila vytvo\u0159it mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed koalici, kter\u00e1 by zajistila zabezpe\u010den\u00ed jednoho z nervov\u00fdch center glob\u00e1ln\u00edho energetick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu: Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu. Stanoven\u00fd c\u00edl byl jasn\u00fd: obnovit svobodu plavby a stabilizovat energetick\u00e9 trhy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Tato iniciativa v\u0161ak sama o sob\u011b vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 hlub\u0161\u00ed strategickou ot\u00e1zku.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">N\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed koalice sice m\u016f\u017ee doprov\u00e1zet ropn\u00e9 tankery nebo hl\u00eddkovat v regionu, ale sama o sob\u011b nem\u016f\u017ee eliminovat schopnost region\u00e1ln\u00edho akt\u00e9ra odhodlan\u00e9ho naru\u0161it n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed dopravu. Zabezpe\u010den\u00ed pr\u016flivu proto z\u00e1vis\u00ed nejen na nasazen\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 s\u00edle, ale tak\u00e9 \u2013 a mo\u017en\u00e1 p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm \u2013 na politick\u00fdch podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch, za nich\u017e lze krizi zm\u00edrnit.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Jin\u00fdmi slovy, demonstrace moci nemus\u00ed nutn\u011b zaru\u010dovat kontrolu nad situac\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">A pr\u00e1v\u011b v tomto okam\u017eiku se nejv\u00edce projevuje propast mezi strategick\u00fdm postojem a geopolitickou realitou.<\/span><br \/>\n<span dir=\"auto\">Pr\u00e1v\u011b zde se logika tohoto prezidentstv\u00ed projevuje v cel\u00e9 sv\u00e9 primitivn\u00ed jednoduchosti.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Od sv\u00e9ho n\u00e1vratu k moci se zd\u00e1, \u017ee Donald Trump uplat\u0148uje v mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed politice extr\u00e9mn\u011b rudiment\u00e1rn\u00ed metodu. Ke ka\u017ed\u00e9 krizi se p\u0159istupuje podle stejn\u00e9ho vzoru: maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed hrozba, slovn\u00ed eskalace, velkolep\u00e1 demonstrace moci a pot\u00e9 pokus donutit protivn\u00edka k \u00fastupku.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Jin\u00fdmi slovy, strategie, kter\u00e1 se velmi podob\u00e1 strategii\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">pokerov\u00e9ho<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0hr\u00e1\u010de .<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Probl\u00e9m nen\u00ed ani tak v tom, \u017ee Trump hraje poker. Koneckonc\u016f, mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed diplomacie v\u017edycky zahrnovala prvek blafov\u00e1n\u00ed a demonstrace s\u00edly. Probl\u00e9m je v tom, \u017ee se zd\u00e1, \u017ee zn\u00e1 jen jeden tah:\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">all-in<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V pokerov\u00e9 h\u0159e m\u016f\u017ee tato strategie n\u011bkdy fungovat. Hr\u00e1\u010d, kter\u00fd vsad\u00ed v\u0161echno, m\u016f\u017ee na sv\u00e9 soupe\u0159e zap\u016fsobit, zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b pokud se boj\u00ed, \u017ee by pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00edm ve h\u0159e prohr\u00e1l v\u00edce.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Tato metoda m\u00e1 ale z\u00e1sadn\u00ed nev\u00fdhodu: rychle se st\u00e1v\u00e1\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">p\u0159edv\u00eddatelnou<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"auto\">St\u00e1ty, kter\u00fdm Washington dnes \u010del\u00ed, v\u0161ak nehraj\u00ed v\u0161echny stejnou hru.<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0Rusko, \u010c\u00edna a \u00cdr\u00e1n si vyvinuly mnohem trp\u011bliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed strategie zalo\u017een\u00e9 na oslabov\u00e1n\u00ed, d\u00e9lce trv\u00e1n\u00ed a zneu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed slabin mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Jin\u00fdmi slovy, kde Trump hraje poker, jeho soupe\u0159i \u010dasto hraj\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u0161achy<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">A v \u0161achov\u00e9 partii hr\u00e1\u010d, kter\u00fd vsad\u00ed v\u0161echno na velkolep\u00fd tah, obvykle p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 pozd\u011b zjist\u00ed, \u017ee hra je rozhodnuta jinde \u2013 o n\u011bkolik tah\u016f pozd\u011bji, na \u0161achovnici, kterou si nedal \u010das pozorovat.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b decentralizovan\u00e9m obrann\u00e9m syst\u00e9mu \u2013 kter\u00fd strat\u00e9gov\u00e9 \u010dasto popisuj\u00ed jako \u0161achovnicov\u00fd vzor \u2013 eliminace velitelsk\u00e9ho \u0161t\u00e1bu nevyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 paralyzuj\u00edc\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinek, o kter\u00fd se sna\u017e\u00ed zast\u00e1nci \u201edekapita\u010dn\u00edch\u201c \u00fader\u016f. Pouze p\u0159esouv\u00e1 hru na jin\u00e1 pole \u0161achovnice.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Mo\u017en\u00e1 pr\u00e1v\u011b v tom spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 nejv\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed paradox sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho obdob\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Proto\u017ee americk\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 s\u00edla, dlouho bezkonkuren\u010dn\u00ed, nyn\u00ed st\u00e1rne rychleji ne\u017e politick\u00e1 d\u016fv\u011bryhodnost, kter\u00e1 ji m\u011bla doprov\u00e1zet.<\/span><br \/>\n<span dir=\"auto\">Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty st\u00e1le disponuj\u00ed zna\u010dn\u00fdmi vojensk\u00fdmi, finan\u010dn\u00edmi a technologick\u00fdmi zdroji.<\/span><br \/>\n<span dir=\"auto\">St\u00e1le v\u0161ak pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed v\u011bd\u011bt, jak je pou\u017e\u00edvat s t\u00edm, co strat\u00e9gov\u00e9 naz\u00fdvaj\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u201estrategickou nejednozna\u010dnost\u00ed\u201c,<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0co\u017e je diplomatick\u00e1 dovednost, kter\u00e1 se dnes americk\u00e9 administrativ\u011b zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt velmi chyb\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed.<\/span><br \/>\n<span dir=\"auto\">Strategick\u00e1 d\u016fv\u011bryhodnost nespo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 jen v surov\u00e9 s\u00edle, ale tak\u00e9 ve schopnosti tuto s\u00edlu vyu\u017e\u00edvat soudr\u017en\u011b, s p\u0159edstavivost\u00ed a s dlouhodobou perspektivou.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Strategick\u00e1 patov\u00e1 situace mezi Washingtonem a Tel Avivem<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Situace by se v\u0161ak mohla zm\u011bnit, pokud by se do konfrontace pln\u011b zapojil dal\u0161\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed akt\u00e9r. Hnut\u00ed Ansarall\u00e1h v Jemenu ji\u017e prok\u00e1zalo svou schopnost naru\u0161it plavbu v Rud\u00e9m mo\u0159i na del\u0161\u00ed dobu. Prozat\u00edm tento akt\u00e9r udr\u017euje strategick\u00fd odstup a sleduje vyv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00ed se rovnov\u00e1hu sil \u2013 p\u0159\u00edstup p\u0159ipom\u00ednaj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup, kter\u00fd Hizball\u00e1h zaujal b\u011bhem ur\u010dit\u00fdch f\u00e1z\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed konfrontace: nezasahuje okam\u017eit\u011b, ale v nejvhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed chv\u00edli.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud by krize eskalovala do mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 koalice nam\u00ed\u0159en\u00e9 proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu, situace by se mohla rychle zm\u011bnit. Roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00fd n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed tlak v B\u00e1b el-Mandebsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu by doplnil tlak vyv\u00edjen\u00fd na Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv a prom\u011bnil by tyto dva pr\u016flivy ve\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">dvojit\u00fd n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed \u00fazk\u00fd bod<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0na hlavn\u00edch tepn\u00e1ch glob\u00e1ln\u00edho obchodu s energi\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V t\u00e9to souvislosti americk\u00e1 administrativa ji\u017e \u010del\u00ed politick\u00e9 a vojensk\u00e9\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">slep\u00e9 uli\u010dce<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0. Washington se pot\u00fdk\u00e1 s obt\u00ed\u017eemi p\u0159i sestavov\u00e1n\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bryhodn\u00e9 mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed koalice a n\u011bkolik zpr\u00e1v nazna\u010duje rostouc\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed ohledn\u011b protiraketov\u00e9 obrany spojenc\u016f v regionu. Po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed demonstrace s\u00edly tak riskuje, \u017ee se zvrhne ve vlekl\u00e9 st\u0159etnut\u00ed s nejist\u00fdm vojensk\u00fdm v\u00fdsledkem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Jeden precedent stoj\u00ed za p\u0159ipomenut\u00ed. B\u011bhem ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 epizody konfrontace mezi Washingtonem a Ansarall\u00e1hem se Trumpova administrativa nakonec rozhodla omezit sv\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 zapojen\u00ed a usilovat o samostatnou formu deeskalace s jemensk\u00fdm hnut\u00edm.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Tato dohoda, v podstat\u011b uzav\u0159en\u00e1 mezi Washingtonem a Ansarall\u00e1hem, fakticky postavila Izrael p\u0159ed pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed konfrontaci s Jemenem. Tento precedent nyn\u00ed podporuje hypot\u00e9zu, \u017ee v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b strategick\u00e9 krize s \u00cdr\u00e1nem by Washington mohl b\u00fdt v poku\u0161en\u00ed zvolit podobn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup: sn\u00ed\u017eit svou p\u0159\u00edmou anga\u017eovanost, sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e se pustit do dlouhodob\u00e9 region\u00e1ln\u00ed eskalace.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V t\u00e9to souvislosti n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed analytici tak\u00e9 zmi\u0148uj\u00ed mo\u017enost posunu v rovnov\u00e1ze odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed v regionu. Opatrn\u011b koluj\u00edc\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee b\u011bhem ned\u00e1vn\u00fdch v\u00fdm\u011bn mohla b\u00fdt zni\u010dena n\u011bkter\u00e1 kritick\u00e1 izraelsk\u00e1 infrastruktura, zejm\u00e9na v okol\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">jadern\u00e9ho komplexu Dimona<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0. I kdy\u017e je obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 tyto podrobnosti nez\u00e1visle potvrdit, pouh\u00e1 zm\u00ednka o nich slou\u017e\u00ed jako p\u0159ipom\u00ednka toho, jak vn\u00edman\u00e1 zranitelnost mocnosti m\u016f\u017ee ovlivnit kalkulace region\u00e1ln\u00edch akt\u00e9r\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V takov\u00e9m sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i by v\u00e1lka nutn\u011b neskon\u010dila americk\u00fdm odchodem. Mohla by se jednodu\u0161e zm\u011bnit jej\u00ed povaha, co\u017e by region\u00e1ln\u00edm akt\u00e9r\u016fm umo\u017enilo pokra\u010dovat v konfrontaci a sami p\u0159edefinovat rovnov\u00e1hu sil.<\/span><br \/>\n<span dir=\"auto\">Americk\u00e1 cesta z krize by pak nemohla p\u0159ij\u00edt z rozhoduj\u00edc\u00edho vojensk\u00e9ho v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed, ale z dom\u00e1c\u00edho politick\u00e9ho tlaku ve Washingtonu \u2013\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">zejm\u00e9na pokud by se Kongres pod tlakem finan\u010dn\u00edch trh\u016f a ve\u0159ejnosti znepokojen\u00e9 ekonomick\u00fdmi d\u016fsledky konfliktu<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0rozhodl omezit prezidentskou pravomoc a ukon\u010dit vojensk\u00e9 dobrodru\u017estv\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se stalo p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 n\u00e1kladn\u00fdm a politicky neudr\u017eiteln\u00fdm.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Za t\u011bchto okolnost\u00ed z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 schopnost Washingtonu zat\u00e1hnout sv\u00e9 z\u00e1padn\u00ed spojence k dal\u0161\u00ed demonstraci s\u00edly velmi nejist\u00e1. Od n\u00e1vratu Donalda Trumpa k moci se evropsk\u00e9 metropole musely vyrovnat s \u0159adou jednostrann\u00fdch rozhodnut\u00ed, obchodn\u00edch tlak\u016f a ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed, kter\u00e1 hluboce oslabila transatlantick\u00e9 vztahy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Nen\u00ed proto d\u016fvod se domn\u00edvat, \u017ee Evropan\u00e9 sp\u011bchaj\u00ed s podporou vojensk\u00e9 operace, jej\u00ed\u017e politick\u00e9 c\u00edle a strategick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky neovlivn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Pot\u00e9, co spolkli mnoho diplomatick\u00fdch kompromis\u016f, by si mohli klidn\u011b uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee tato v\u00e1lka prost\u011b nen\u00ed jejich.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Kdy\u017e se zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politika redukuje na s\u00e9rii velkolep\u00fdch p\u0159evrat\u016f, moc p\u0159est\u00e1v\u00e1 b\u00fdt strategick\u00fdm n\u00e1strojem. St\u00e1v\u00e1 se pouhou pod\u00edvanou.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"auto\">A v t\u00e9to pod\u00edvan\u00e9 u\u017e skute\u010dnou zbran\u00ed hromadn\u00e9ho ni\u010den\u00ed nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt vojensk\u00e1 s\u00edla.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"auto\">To je sm\u011b\u0161n\u00e9.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-spacer\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n<p><em><span dir=\"auto\">od\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Azzedine Kaamila A\u00eft-Ameura<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\">xxxxxxxxx<\/div>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Pro ty, kte\u0159\u00ed cht\u011bj\u00ed v t\u00e9to diskusi pokra\u010dovat:<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Trilogie \u0158\u00ed\u0161e l\u017e\u00ed:<\/span><br \/>\n<em><span dir=\"auto\">Esej o moci, propagand\u011b a civiliza\u010dn\u00edm \u00fapadku<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><a title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/shop.vivlio.com\/search?search=Azzedine%20Kaamil%20A%C3%AFt-Ameur&amp;fields=mainauthor\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">https:\/\/shop.vivlio.com\/search?search=Azzedine%20Kaamil%20A%C3%AFt-Ameur&amp;fields=mainauthor<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Od stejn\u00e9ho autora:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Iluze rovnov\u00e1hy: Indie \u010del\u00ed krizi v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/reseauinternational.net\/lillusion-de-lequilibre-linde-face-a-la-crise-du-golfe\/?doing_wp_cron=1773698608.1788160800933837890625\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">https:\/\/reseauinternational.net\/lillusion-de-lequilibre-linde-face-a-la-crise-du-golfe<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Cena ml\u010den\u00ed \u2013 Reakce na Khalafa Ahmada Al Habtoora<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/reseauinternational.net\/le-prix-du-silence-reponse-a-khalaf-ahmad-al-habtoor\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">https:\/\/reseauinternational.net\/le-prix-du-silence-reponse-a-khalaf-ahmad-al-habtoor\/<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kdy\u017e politika spektaklu nahrad\u00ed strategii Trumpova administrativa se pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zap\u00ed\u0161e jako nejhor\u0161\u00ed v historii USA&#8230;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":102280,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,4537,38,452,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102279"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=102279"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102279\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/102280"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=102279"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=102279"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=102279"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}