{"id":102160,"date":"2026-03-18T00:12:37","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T23:12:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=102160"},"modified":"2026-03-17T12:21:13","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T11:21:13","slug":"plukovnik-doug-macgregor-valka-s-iranem-v-dohledne-dobe-neskonci-globalni-energeticka-krize-a-ekonomicke-dusledky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/03\/18\/plukovnik-doug-macgregor-valka-s-iranem-v-dohledne-dobe-neskonci-globalni-energeticka-krize-a-ekonomicke-dusledky\/","title":{"rendered":"Plukovn\u00edk Doug Macgregor: V\u00e1lka s \u00cdr\u00e1nem v dohledn\u00e9 dob\u011b neskon\u010d\u00ed \u2013 Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed energetick\u00e1 krize a ekonomick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"auto\">V ned\u00e1vn\u00e9m rozhovoru plukovn\u00edk ve v\u00fdslu\u017eb\u011b Doug Macgregor d\u016frazn\u011b varuje, \u017ee prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed konflikt mezi USA\/Izraelem a \u00cdr\u00e1nem bude trvat mnohem d\u00e9le, ne\u017e nazna\u010duje Trumpova administrativa.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Navzdory uklid\u0148uj\u00edc\u00edm prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm prezidenta Trumpa je situace katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed: Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv je fakticky zablokov\u00e1n, masivn\u00ed v\u00fdpadky produkce v zem\u00edch Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu vedly k jednomu z nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch naru\u0161en\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00edch dod\u00e1vek ropy v historii a ekonomick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky tvrd\u011b zasahuj\u00ed sv\u011bt \u2013 v\u010detn\u011b USA.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Macgregor zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee v\u00e1lka nebude m\u00edt rychl\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed a \u017ee USA jsou ve strategicky slab\u00e9 pozici.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Plukovn\u00edk Doug Macgregor: \u00cdr\u00e1n v dohledn\u00e9 dob\u011b neskon\u010d\u00ed\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/71u5rtj3hEA?feature=oembed\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed situace: Masivn\u00ed v\u00fdpadek v\u00fdroby a zablokov\u00e1n\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Macgregor poukazuje na to, \u017ee p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 25 % sv\u011btov\u00fdch dod\u00e1vek ropy je v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b mimo provoz \u2013 tento odhad podporuj\u00ed i \u200b\u200bzpr\u00e1vy Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed energetick\u00e9 agentury (IEA).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">IEA hovo\u0159\u00ed o \u201enejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm naru\u0161en\u00ed dod\u00e1vek v historii trhu s ropou\u201c s poklesem glob\u00e1ln\u00edch dod\u00e1vek a\u017e o 8 milion\u016f barel\u016f denn\u011b v b\u0159eznu 2026. Sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed produkce v zem\u00edch, jako jsou Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty, Katar, Ir\u00e1k, Kuvajt a Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie, dosahuje nejm\u00e9n\u011b 10 milion\u016f barel\u016f denn\u011b, proto\u017ee skladovac\u00ed n\u00e1dr\u017ee jsou pln\u00e9 a v\u00fdvoz p\u0159es Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 ustal.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Gibraltarsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv \u2013 kter\u00fdm obvykle denn\u011b proud\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 20 milion\u016f barel\u016f ropy a p\u011btina celosv\u011btov\u00e9 p\u0159epravy LNG \u2013 je od za\u010d\u00e1tku b\u0159ezna 2026 z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti uzav\u0159en. \u00cdr\u00e1n \u00fato\u010d\u00ed na lod\u011b a prohla\u0161uje, \u017ee plavba je pro \u201enep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9\u201c tankery zak\u00e1z\u00e1na.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00fd v\u00fdvoz ropy (zejm\u00e9na do \u010c\u00edny) do ur\u010dit\u00e9 m\u00edry pokra\u010duje, zat\u00edmco v\u00fdvoz ze sousedn\u00edch zem\u00ed se zastavil. To vede k neust\u00e1l\u00fdm naru\u0161en\u00edm dod\u00e1vek: i po mo\u017en\u00e9m znovuotev\u0159en\u00ed Gibraltarsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu bude obnoven\u00ed produkce trvat t\u00fddny a\u017e m\u011bs\u00edce kv\u016fli po\u0161kozen\u00e9 infrastruktu\u0159e a logistick\u00fdm probl\u00e9m\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Ekonomick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky: Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed inflace a energetick\u00e1 krize<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Macgregor podrobn\u011b vysv\u011btluje \u0159et\u011bzov\u00e9 reakce.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Ceny ropy a plynu prudce rostou:<\/span><\/strong><br \/>\n<span dir=\"auto\">ropa Brent p\u0159ekro\u010dila hranici 100 dolar\u016f, co\u017e vede k r\u016fstu cen paliv a elekt\u0159iny.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Hnojiva a potraviny:<\/span><\/strong><br \/>\n<span dir=\"auto\">35 % sv\u011btov\u00e9ho v\u00fdvozu hnojiv je blokov\u00e1no kv\u016fli naru\u0161en\u00ed dod\u00e1vek zemn\u00edho plynu \u2013 kter\u00fd je pro v\u00fdrobu hnojiv kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd. To celosv\u011btov\u011b zvy\u0161uje ceny potravin.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Evropa a Asie:<\/span><\/strong><br \/>\n<span dir=\"auto\">\u00darove\u0148 z\u00e1sob LNG v Evrop\u011b klesla pod 30 %, co\u017e je v\u00fdrazn\u011b m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e v p\u0159edchoz\u00edch letech. \u010c\u00edna a Indie, kter\u00e9 ka\u017ed\u00e1 z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 50 % sv\u00e9 ropy z Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu, trp\u00ed t\u00edmto nedostatkem masivn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00ednsk\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 rezervy se vy\u010derp\u00e1vaj\u00ed rychleji, proto\u017ee p\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e9 zdroje, jako je Venezuela nebo \u00cdr\u00e1n, jsou \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b nedostupn\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"auto\">USA:<\/span><\/strong><br \/>\n<span dir=\"auto\">Navzdory dom\u00e1c\u00ed produkci a venezuelsk\u00e9mu exportu ropy \u2013 kter\u00fd Trump ozna\u010duje za \u201edobr\u00e9ho partnera\u201c \u2013 z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 ropa glob\u00e1ln\u00ed komoditou. Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ceny tak\u00e9 vedou k inflaci, rostouc\u00edm n\u00e1klad\u016fm na elekt\u0159inu a pr\u016fmysl a omezen\u00e9 m\u011bnov\u00e9 politice v USA, proto\u017ee sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb je \u010d\u00edm d\u00e1l obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Macgregor p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1: Dopady se projev\u00ed v polovin\u011b dubna a v l\u00e9t\u011b by mohly b\u00fdt \u201eo\u0161kliv\u00e9\u201c \u2013 s mo\u017en\u00fdmi politick\u00fdmi d\u016fsledky pro Trumpovy \u0161ance v polovin\u011b volebn\u00edho obdob\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Kritizuje tak\u00e9 Trumpovy pokusy zleh\u010dovat situaci: Prezident zd\u016fraz\u0148uje nez\u00e1vislost USA a tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee konflikt z\u00e1va\u017en\u011bji postihuje dal\u0161\u00ed zem\u011b \u2013 nap\u0159\u00edklad \u010c\u00ednu. Podle Macgregora v\u0161ak realita do\u017eene i USA.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Vojensk\u00e1 perspektiva: \u017d\u00e1dn\u00e9 rychl\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed, vysok\u00e9 n\u00e1klady<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Macgregor pochybuje o vojensk\u00e9 strategii americk\u00e9 administrativy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n nad\u00e1le odpaluje balistick\u00e9 rakety, kter\u00e9 zasahuj\u00ed c\u00edle v Izraeli a regionu. Podzemn\u00ed \u201eraketov\u00e1 m\u011bsta\u201c na v\u00fdchod\u011b zem\u011b z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti nedot\u010dena, proto\u017ee jsou mimo dosah mnoha \u00fatok\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Americk\u00e9 vzdu\u0161n\u00e9 a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed s\u00edly sice mohou zp\u016fsobit zna\u010dn\u00e9 \u0161kody, ale zm\u011bna re\u017eimu nebo kapitulace je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e1. \u00cdr\u00e1n ji\u017e nyn\u00ed t\u011b\u017e\u00ed z jeho p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed \u2013 podobn\u011b jako v p\u0159edchoz\u00edch leteck\u00fdch v\u00e1lk\u00e1ch, jako nap\u0159\u00edklad v Kosovu v roce 1999 nebo v Ir\u00e1ku v roce 1991, kter\u00e9 nevedly k rychl\u00e9mu podman\u011bn\u00ed nep\u0159\u00edtele.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">N\u00e1klady tak\u00e9 rapidn\u011b rostou. Jen prvn\u00ed dny v\u00e1lky u\u017e spolkly miliardy dolar\u016f. Macgregor odhaduje, \u017ee del\u0161\u00ed konflikt by si mohl vy\u017e\u00e1dat dodate\u010dn\u00fd rozpo\u010det p\u0159esahuj\u00edc\u00ed 50 miliard dolar\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Nasazen\u00ed pozemn\u00edch vojsk je politicky t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nemo\u017en\u00e9, proto\u017ee odvodn\u00ed povinnost by nebyla v r\u00e1mci zem\u011b provediteln\u00e1. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 existuje riziko, \u017ee by Izrael mohl situaci vyhrotit pomoc\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, co\u017e by vyvolalo glob\u00e1ln\u00ed reakce.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Macgregor pova\u017euje Trumpovy hrozby \u2013 jako je zni\u010den\u00ed infrastruktury \u201e20kr\u00e1t siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed\u201c \u2013 za blaf. \u00cdr\u00e1n se nevzd\u00e1, proto\u017ee po\u017eadavky USA, v\u010detn\u011b \u00fapln\u00e9ho odzbrojen\u00ed a ukon\u010den\u00ed obohacov\u00e1n\u00ed uranu, p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed pro re\u017eim existen\u010dn\u00ed hrozbu.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Geopolitick\u00e1 dynamika: Rusko, \u010c\u00edna a nov\u00e1 spojenectv\u00ed<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Podle Macgregora konflikt tak\u00e9 geopoliticky posouv\u00e1 rovnov\u00e1hu sil.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Rusko:<\/span><\/strong><br \/>\n<span dir=\"auto\">Putin vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 krize k vyv\u00edjen\u00ed tlaku na Evropu. Zva\u017euje zastaven\u00ed dod\u00e1vek plynu a ropy d\u0159\u00edve, ne\u017e bylo pl\u00e1nov\u00e1no, a p\u0159esm\u011brov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho mno\u017estv\u00ed dod\u00e1vek do Asie. Putin p\u0159edlo\u017eil Trumpovi n\u00e1vrhy na ukon\u010den\u00ed konfliktu, ale ty byly odm\u00edtnuty.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edna:<\/span><\/strong><br \/>\n<span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edna ztr\u00e1c\u00ed levn\u00e9 zdroje energie z \u00cdr\u00e1nu a Venezuely a bude je muset nakupovat za vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ceny. V extr\u00e9mn\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i by Peking mohl dokonce vojensky zas\u00e1hnout, nap\u0159\u00edklad poskytnut\u00edm leteck\u00e9 podpory \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Turecko a dal\u0161\u00ed st\u00e1ty:<\/span><\/strong><br \/>\n<span dir=\"auto\">N\u011bkolik zem\u00ed by se mohlo sna\u017eit o u\u017e\u0161\u00ed vztahy s \u00cdr\u00e1nem, nap\u0159\u00edklad prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm zpravodajsk\u00fdch slu\u017eeb nebo logistick\u00e9 podpory. V mnoha \u010d\u00e1stech sv\u011bta je \u00fatok USA vn\u00edm\u00e1n jako nespravedliv\u00fd, co\u017e by mohlo zv\u00fd\u0161it mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed podporu \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Macgregor varuje, \u017ee americk\u00e1 strategie \u2013 jako je oslaben\u00ed \u010c\u00edny nedostatkem energie \u2013 by se mohla obr\u00e1tit proti nim a m\u00edsto toho vytvo\u0159it nov\u00e9 protivn\u00edky.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Z\u00e1v\u011br: P\u0159\u00edprava na nejhor\u0161\u00ed<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Macgregor doporu\u010duje obyvatelstvu, aby se p\u0159ipravilo na dlouhodob\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 ot\u0159esy. To zahrnuje i vytv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed z\u00e1sob l\u00e9k\u016f, potravin a z\u00e1kladn\u00edch pot\u0159eb, proto\u017ee dodavatelsk\u00e9 \u0159et\u011bzce \u2013 nap\u0159\u00edklad pro farmaceutick\u00e9 produkty vyroben\u00e9 z petrochemick\u00fdch surovin \u2013 by se mohly dostat pod tlak.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 turbulence na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch. Akciov\u00fd trh by se mohl zhroutit, zat\u00edmco ceny ropy by v extr\u00e9mn\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i mohly vzr\u016fst na 200 a\u017e 300 dolar\u016f za barel.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n se nevzd\u00e1. Podle Macgregora m\u00edsto toho USA riskuj\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed izolaci a v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 \u0161kody.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Jeho z\u00e1v\u011br: V\u00e1lka nen\u00ed omezen\u00fdm vojensk\u00fdm \u00fasp\u011bchem, ale rozv\u00edj\u00ed se ve strategickou katastrofu. Cenu za ni nakonec zaplat\u00ed cel\u00fd sv\u011bt, hnan\u00fd geopolitick\u00fdmi chybami a region\u00e1ln\u00edmi z\u00e1jmy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1185\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/kuryr-podpis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"24\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>V ned\u00e1vn\u00e9m rozhovoru plukovn\u00edk ve v\u00fdslu\u017eb\u011b Doug Macgregor d\u016frazn\u011b varuje, \u017ee prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed konflikt mezi USA\/Izraelem&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":33676,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,1052,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102160"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=102160"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102160\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/33676"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=102160"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=102160"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=102160"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}