{"id":102039,"date":"2026-03-16T06:01:07","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T05:01:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=102039"},"modified":"2026-03-16T06:01:07","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T05:01:07","slug":"andrew-korybko-eu-predstavuje-pro-rusko-mnohem-verohodnejsi-hrozbu-nez-naopak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/03\/16\/andrew-korybko-eu-predstavuje-pro-rusko-mnohem-verohodnejsi-hrozbu-nez-naopak\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: EU p\u0159edstavuje pro Rusko mnohem v\u011brohodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed hrozbu ne\u017e naopak"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Pokud USA dohl\u00ed\u017eej\u00ed na optimalizaci vojensko-pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9ho komplexu EU, vojensk\u00e9 logistiky a dal\u0161\u00edch z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed souvisej\u00edc\u00edch s obranou s c\u00edlem \u201eomezit\u201c souvisej\u00edc\u00ed schopnosti Ruska, pak by v\u00fdzva, kter\u00e9 by Rusko mohlo \u010delit na sv\u00e9 z\u00e1padn\u00ed hranici, mohla odr\u00e1\u017eet tu z \u010dervna 1941.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Sergej Lavrov v ned\u00e1vn\u00e9m rozhovoru zopakoval dlouhodobou politiku, kdy\u017e sv\u00e9mu partnerovi\u00a0<\/span>\u0159ekl\u00a0<\/span><\/a>: \u201eNe\u00fato\u010d\u00edme na \u017e\u00e1dnou \u010d\u00e1st Evropy. Nem\u00e1me k tomu absolutn\u011b \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd d\u016fvod. A pokud se Evropa rozhodne zhmotnit sv\u00e9 hrozby a p\u0159ipravit se na v\u00e1lku proti n\u00e1m a za\u010dne \u00fato\u010dit na Rusko, prezident uvedl, \u017ee z na\u0161\u00ed strany to nebude speci\u00e1ln\u00ed vojensk\u00e1 operace, ale tot\u00e1ln\u00ed vojensk\u00e1 reakce se v\u0161emi dostupn\u00fdmi vojensk\u00fdmi prost\u0159edky v souladu s doktrin\u00e1ln\u00edmi dokumenty k t\u00e9to z\u00e1le\u017eitosti.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Abychom to up\u0159esnili, Rusko nikdy nem\u011blo v pl\u00e1nu riskovat t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btovou v\u00e1lku invaz\u00ed do pobaltsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f a\/nebo Polska, jejich\u017e nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 obyvatelstvo by p\u0159i jak\u00e9koli okupaci p\u0159edstavovalo trvalou bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed hrozbu. Ve\u0161ker\u00e9 takov\u00e9 \u0159e\u010di o opaku jsou jednodu\u0161e odrazem toho, co lze popsat jako trauma z temn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch obdob\u00ed jejich st\u0159ep\u016f historie s Ruskem, jeho\u017e detaily p\u0159esahuj\u00ed r\u00e1mec t\u00e9to anal\u00fdzy. Sta\u010d\u00ed v\u011bd\u011bt, \u017ee tvrzen\u00ed o militantn\u00edm rusk\u00e9m revan\u0161ismu v\u016f\u010di nim nejsou nijak podlo\u017eena.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nicm\u00e9n\u011b nen\u00ed pochyb o tom, \u017ee\u00a0<\/span>Polsko\u00a0<\/span><\/a>a zbytek jeho evropsk\u00fdch spojenc\u016f v NATO obecn\u011b p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed pro Rusko v\u011brohodn\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed hrozby, ale jejich povaha se vyv\u00edj\u00ed a\u00a0<\/span>Putin, kter\u00fd je obvykle opatrn\u00fd,\u00a0<\/span><\/a>neschv\u00e1l\u00ed prvn\u00ed \u00fader s rizikem rozpout\u00e1n\u00ed t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. P\u0159ed v\u00fdvojem hypersonick\u00fdch raket Ruskem podkop\u00e1vala infrastruktura protiraketov\u00e9 obrany USA v Polsku rusk\u00e9 schopnosti druh\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho \u00faderu, ale\u00a0<\/span>v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9 zbran\u011b\u00a0<\/span><\/a>od t\u00e9 doby obnovily strategickou paritu neutralizac\u00ed t\u00e9to hrozby.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed hrozba pro Rusko, vych\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed z Polska, se t\u00fdk\u00e1 jeho bezprecedentn\u00edho navy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 s\u00edly, kter\u00e9 vedlo k tomu, \u017ee Rusko vel\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed arm\u00e1d\u011b EU\u00a0<\/span><\/a>s v\u00edce ne\u017e 215 000 voj\u00e1ky, s pl\u00e1ny dos\u00e1hnout\u00a0<\/span>300 000 do roku 2030\u00a0<\/span><\/a>a\u00a0<\/span>p\u016fl milionu do roku 2039\u00a0<\/span><\/a>(z toho 200 000 z\u00e1lo\u017en\u00edk\u016f). \u201e\u00a0<\/span>N\u011bmecko soupe\u0159\u00ed s Polskem o veden\u00ed v zadr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed Ruska\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u201c, zat\u00edmco EU loni schv\u00e1lila\u00a0<\/span>\u201ePl\u00e1n znovuzbrojen\u00ed Evropy\u201c v hodnot\u011b 800 miliard eur\u00a0<\/span><\/a>a v\u0161echny tyto z\u00e1lohy se d\u00edky \u201e\u00a0<\/span>vojensk\u00e9mu Schengenu\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u201c rychle p\u0159esunou na rusko-b\u011blorusk\u00e9 hranice.<\/span><\/p>\n

To se t\u00fdk\u00e1 paktu z po\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2024 mezi Nizozemskem, N\u011bmeckem a Polskem o usnadn\u011bn\u00ed pohybu vojsk a vybaven\u00ed p\u0159es jejich hranice, s pl\u00e1ny na p\u0159ipojen\u00ed i\u00a0<\/span>Belgie\u00a0<\/span><\/a>a\u00a0<\/span>Francie .\u00a0<\/span><\/a>V\u00fdchodn\u00ed k\u0159\u00eddlo\u00a0<\/a><\/span>NATO\u00a0<\/span>se tak\u00e9 rychle militarizuje, a to nejen z hlediska zdvojn\u00e1soben\u00ed n\u00e1kupu zbran\u00ed a po\u010dtu rekrut\u016f, ale tak\u00e9 z hlediska fyzick\u00e9 infrastruktury. \u201e\u00a0Obrann\u00e1 linie EU\u00a0<\/a>\u201c, kter\u00e1 spojuje \u201ePobaltskou obrannou linii\u201c a polsk\u00fd \u201eV\u00fdchodn\u00ed \u0161t\u00edt\u201c, se rychle m\u011bn\u00ed v novou \u017eeleznou oponu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejzlov\u011bstn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je, \u017ee N\u00e1rodn\u00ed obrann\u00e1 strategie\u00a0<\/span><\/a>Trumpa 2.0\u00a0<\/span>prohla\u0161uje, \u017ee \u201eevropsk\u00e9 NATO zast\u00edn\u00ed Rusko co do ekonomick\u00e9ho rozsahu, populace a tedy i latentn\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 s\u00edly\u201c, to v\u0161e mus\u00ed b\u00fdt jen spr\u00e1vn\u011b \u0159\u00edzeno, aby se Rusko co nejefektivn\u011bji omezilo. A\u010dkoli Rusko s NATO na Ukrajin\u011b v\u00edt\u011bz\u00ed v \u201e\u00a0<\/span>z\u00e1vodu logistiky\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u201c\/\u201e\u00a0<\/span>vyhlazovac\u00ed v\u00e1lce\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u201c, bude st\u00e1le obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed si udr\u017eet veden\u00ed a potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed \u201ezast\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed\u201c jeho schopnost\u00ed EU by se mohlo st\u00e1t existen\u010dn\u00ed hrozbou, pokud by n\u011bkdy do\u0161lo ke konfliktu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pr\u00e1v\u011b s ohledem na tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 Lavrov d\u016frazn\u011b nazna\u010dil, \u017ee Rusko pou\u017eije jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b v reakci na jakoukoli hypotetickou invazi EU. Pokud USA dohl\u00ed\u017eej\u00ed na optimalizaci vojensko-pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9ho komplexu EU, vojensk\u00e9 logistiky a dal\u0161\u00edch z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed souvisej\u00edc\u00edch s obranou, pak by v\u00fdzva, kter\u00e9 by Rusko mohlo \u010delit na sv\u00e9 z\u00e1padn\u00ed hranici, mohla odr\u00e1\u017eet tu z \u010dervna 1941. Na rozd\u00edl od tehdej\u0161\u00ed doby je Rusko nyn\u00ed jadernou supervelmoc\u00ed a to by mohl b\u00fdt jedin\u00fd faktor, kter\u00fd odrazuje EU od invaze do Ruska.<\/span><\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pokud USA dohl\u00ed\u017eej\u00ed na optimalizaci vojensko-pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9ho komplexu EU, vojensk\u00e9 logistiky a dal\u0161\u00edch z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed souvisej\u00edc\u00edch s…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":102040,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,41,4866,39,22],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102039"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=102039"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102039\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/102040"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=102039"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=102039"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=102039"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}