{"id":101914,"date":"2026-03-15T00:12:19","date_gmt":"2026-03-14T23:12:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=101914"},"modified":"2026-03-14T08:49:05","modified_gmt":"2026-03-14T07:49:05","slug":"ne-valka-proti-iranu-se-netyka-ciny-evropa-by-si-mela-delat-mnohem-vetsi-starosti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/03\/15\/ne-valka-proti-iranu-se-netyka-ciny-evropa-by-si-mela-delat-mnohem-vetsi-starosti\/","title":{"rendered":"Ne, v\u00e1lka proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu se net\u00fdk\u00e1 \u010c\u00edny. Evropa by si m\u011bla d\u011blat mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed starosti"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1fb4c2c elementor-widget elementor-widget-theme-post-content\" data-id=\"1fb4c2c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"theme-post-content.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Hlavn\u00edm argumentem na Z\u00e1pad\u011b, kter\u00fd ospravedl\u0148uje nez\u00e1konnou v\u00e1lku proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu, je v sou\u010dasnosti to, \u017ee se ve skute\u010dnosti jedn\u00e1 o \u010c\u00ednu \u2013 jako sou\u010d\u00e1st strategie energetick\u00e9ho obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed \u010c\u00edny a zbaven\u00ed ji geopolitick\u00e9ho partnera.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Tato narativov\u00e1 situace nyn\u00ed do\u0161la do absurdn\u00edch extr\u00e9m\u016f. B\u00fdval\u00fd velvyslanec USA v \u010c\u00edn\u011b Nicholas Burns se dokonce ve\u0159ejn\u011b vysm\u00edval \u010c\u00edn\u011b jako \u201ebezmocn\u00e9mu p\u0159\u00edteli\u201c za to, \u017ee nepom\u00e1h\u00e1 \u00cdr\u00e1nu v jeho boji proti USA. To hodn\u011b vypov\u00edd\u00e1 o cynismu \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed americk\u00e9 elity, \u017ee by vysoce postaven\u00fd americk\u00fd politik zesm\u011b\u0161\u0148oval jadern\u011b vyzbrojenou supervelmoc za to, \u017ee neza\u010dala v\u00e1lku se Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty. Kdyby probl\u00e9m nebyl tak v\u00e1\u017en\u00fd, mohl by se tomu \u010dlov\u011bk zasm\u00e1t.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Tato narativov\u00e1 situace nep\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed jen z Washingtonu, ale tak\u00e9 z Evropy \u2013 a dokonce z n\u011bkter\u00fdch p\u0159ekvapiv\u00fdch (a zklam\u00e1n\u00edm) sm\u011br\u016f. Jedn\u00edm z p\u0159\u00edklad\u016f je Jean-Luc M\u00e9lenchon, v\u016fdce strany\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">La France Insoumise<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0, hlavn\u00ed francouzsk\u00e9 levicov\u00e9 opozi\u010dn\u00ed strany. Opakuje argumenty Washingtonu a \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee v\u00e1lka proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu je ve skute\u010dnosti o \u010c\u00edn\u011b, proto\u017ee \u201eomezuje schopnost \u010c\u00edny dod\u00e1vat ropu\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u010clov\u011bk by ne\u010dekal, \u017ee M\u00e9lenchon bude t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 doslovn\u011b opakovat to, co \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed Lindsey Graham nebo Hudson\u016fv institut (pravicov\u00fd neokonzervativn\u00ed think tank v USA) na Fox News \u2013 ale p\u0159esn\u011b to se d\u011bje.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Obecn\u011b plat\u00ed, \u017ee pokud USA \u2013 zejm\u00e9na ameri\u010dt\u00ed neokonzervativci \u2013 \u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed ur\u010dit\u00fd v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd narativ, m\u011blo by se na n\u011bj pohl\u00ed\u017eet s velkou skeps\u00ed. Nejsou zrovna zn\u00e1m\u00ed t\u00edm, \u017ee by up\u0159ednost\u0148ovali pravdu p\u0159ed dobr\u00fdm narativem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">P\u0159irozen\u011b by \u0159ekli, \u017ee jejich strategie je sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed velk\u00e9ho pl\u00e1nu, jeho\u017e kone\u010dn\u00fdm c\u00edlem je p\u0159etvo\u0159it glob\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0159\u00e1d a zkrotit jejich hlavn\u00edho rivala. Je to p\u0159esn\u011b ten druh pozitivn\u00edho narativu, kter\u00fd rezonuje ve Washingtonu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Mo\u017en\u00e1 je to dokonce pravda \u2013 mo\u017en\u00e1 je to opravdu jejich pl\u00e1n. Kdo v\u00ed? Ale i kdyby to tak bylo, bylo by to naprosto nere\u00e1ln\u00e9. A stejn\u011b plat\u00ed star\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edslov\u00ed:\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u201e\u017d\u00e1dn\u00fd pl\u00e1n nep\u0159e\u017eije prvn\u00ed kontakt s nep\u0159\u00edtelem.\u201c<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0Nebo, jak to \u0159ekl Mike Tyson: \u201eKa\u017ed\u00fd m\u00e1 pl\u00e1n, dokud nedostane p\u011bst\u00ed do obli\u010deje.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">USA m\u011bly tak\u00e9 pl\u00e1n na \u201edemokratizaci\u201c Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu pomoc\u00ed v\u00e1lky v Ir\u00e1ku. V\u0161ichni v\u00edme, jak to dopadlo.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Pravda je takov\u00e1: Bez ohledu na to, jak se v\u00e1lka proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu vyvine \u2013 a to jsme st\u00e1le na \u00fapln\u00e9m za\u010d\u00e1tku; zpr\u00e1vy ji\u017e nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee Pentagon pl\u00e1nuje v\u00e1lku do z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed \u2013 \u010c\u00edna bude pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zasa\u017eena podstatn\u011b m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e ostatn\u00ed. A to plat\u00ed zejm\u00e9na pro Evropu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">To tak\u00e9 znamen\u00e1, \u017ee by pan M\u00e9lenchon m\u011bl rad\u011bji v\u011bnovat pozornost d\u016fsledk\u016fm pro svou vlastn\u00ed zemi \u2013 Francii \u2013 ne\u017e opakovat argumenty Washingtonu o zemi, kter\u00e1 \u00cdr\u00e1n sotva pot\u0159ebuje. Francie a Evropa jsou na druhou stranu mnohem v\u00edce z\u00e1visl\u00e9 pr\u00e1v\u011b na energetick\u00fdch trz\u00edch, kter\u00e9 tato v\u00e1lka masivn\u011b destabilizuje.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Pod\u00edvejme se na \u010d\u00edsla a p\u0159edstavme si dokonal\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 z americk\u00e9 perspektivy: \u00cdr\u00e1n kapituluje, doch\u00e1z\u00ed ke zm\u011bn\u011b re\u017eimu a k moci se chop\u00ed nov\u00e1, Washingtonu naklon\u011bn\u00e1 vl\u00e1da \u2013 mo\u017en\u00e1 pod veden\u00edm Pahlav\u00edho nebo podobn\u00e9 osobnosti.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Aby bylo jasno: To je extr\u00e9mn\u011b nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9. Ale na chv\u00edli p\u0159ijm\u011bme tento neokonzervativn\u00ed sen.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Dalo by to USA v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed vliv na \u010c\u00ednu? Do ur\u010dit\u00e9 m\u00edry ano \u2013 ale tento vliv by byl mal\u00fd a kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n je skute\u010dn\u011b v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm dodavatelem ropy pro \u010c\u00ednu \u2013 druh\u00fdm nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm po Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bii. Celkov\u011b je v\u0161ak \u010c\u00edna pozoruhodn\u011b energeticky sob\u011bsta\u010dn\u00e1: m\u00edra jej\u00ed energetick\u00e9 sob\u011bsta\u010dnosti \u010dinila v lo\u0148sk\u00e9m roce\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">84,6 %<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud se spo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1, jak celkov\u011b je \u010c\u00edna z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na \u00cdr\u00e1nu, p\u0159edstavuje to\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">pouze asi 1,5 % jej\u00ed celkov\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 pot\u0159eby<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0. Pro zemi, jej\u00ed\u017e vlastn\u00ed produkce prim\u00e1rn\u00ed energie\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">roste ro\u010dn\u011b p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 4,6 %<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0, je to t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 zanedbateln\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edna by teoreticky mohla \u00cdr\u00e1n zcela nahradit b\u011bhem \u010dty\u0159 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f pouh\u00fdm dal\u0161\u00edm zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00edm vlastn\u00ed produkce. Ve skute\u010dnosti ji\u017e byly provedeny p\u0159\u00edpravy: dovoz ropy do \u010c\u00edny vzrostl v lednu a \u00fanoru o\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">15,8 %<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s p\u0159edchoz\u00edm rokem, proto\u017ee Peking z\u00e1m\u011brn\u011b budoval rezervy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Podle analytika Chima Leeho z Economist Intelligence Unit m\u00e1 \u010c\u00edna v sou\u010dasnosti\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">dovozn\u00ed rezervy p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b na 120 dn\u00ed<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee by zem\u011b teoreticky mohla p\u0159e\u017e\u00edt i \u00fapln\u00e9 zastaven\u00ed ve\u0161ker\u00e9ho dovozu ropy po dobu \u010dty\u0159 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f \u2013 nato\u017e jen naru\u0161en\u00ed dod\u00e1vek \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ropy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edna je nav\u00edc sama o sob\u011b v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm producentem ropy: je\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">p\u00e1t\u00fdm nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm producentem ropy na sv\u011bt\u011b<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0, p\u0159ed \u00cdr\u00e1nem a Venezuelou. V tuzemsku \u010c\u00edna produkuje zhruba tolik ropy jako \u00cdr\u00e1n a Venezuela dohromady.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edna nav\u00edc \u2013 na rozd\u00edl od Evropy \u2013 soused\u00ed s Ruskem, druh\u00fdm nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm producentem ropy na sv\u011bt\u011b. A na rozd\u00edl od Evropy s touto zem\u00ed udr\u017euje vynikaj\u00edc\u00ed vztahy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edna uzav\u0159ela s Ruskem dlouhodob\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 smlouvy, kter\u00e9 ji do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry chr\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ed cenov\u00fdmi v\u00fdkyvy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">I p\u0159edpoklad, \u017ee by USA zastavily dod\u00e1vky do \u010c\u00edny, pokud by z\u00edskaly kontrolu nad \u00edr\u00e1nskou ropou, je sporn\u00fd. Je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, \u017ee by ud\u011blaly p\u0159esn\u011b to, co u\u017e ud\u011blaly ve Venezuele: vybraly by pen\u00edze z prodeje, zat\u00edmco by se ropa nad\u00e1le prod\u00e1vala \u010c\u00edn\u011b \u2013 pouze bez slevy, kterou \u010c\u00edna d\u0159\u00edve dost\u00e1vala.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdsledkem \u00cdr\u00e1nu ovl\u00e1dan\u00e9ho USA by tedy bylo jednodu\u0161e to, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna by v budoucnu z\u00edsk\u00e1vala stejn\u00fdch\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">1,5 % sv\u00e9 energie<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0z \u00cdr\u00e1nu ovl\u00e1dan\u00e9ho USA.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edna by si s t\u00edm dok\u00e1zala poradit.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Ve skute\u010dnosti m\u011bly n\u011bkter\u00e9 d\u016fsledky v\u00e1lky\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">na \u010c\u00ednu dosud dokonce pozitivn\u00ed dopad<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">USA musely st\u00e1hnout sv\u016fj\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">syst\u00e9m protiraketov\u00e9 obrany THAAD z Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreje<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0\u2013 jedin\u00e9 trval\u00e9 rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed americk\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f THAAD v zahrani\u010d\u00ed \u2013 aby nahradily syst\u00e9my po\u0161kozen\u00e9 na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Tento syst\u00e9m v roce 2017 vyvolal masivn\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed s \u010c\u00ednou. \u010c\u00edna zastavila cestovn\u00ed ruch do Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreje, skupina Lotte se musela z \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho trhu z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti st\u00e1hnout, spole\u010dnosti Hyundai a Kia zav\u0159ely tov\u00e1rny a K-Pop zmizel z \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">A te\u010f USA syst\u00e9m jednodu\u0161e demontuj\u00ed a pos\u00edlaj\u00ed ho na Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod. Ji\u017en\u00ed Korea tak snesla obrovsk\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 \u0161kody \u2013 jen aby Washington syst\u00e9m znovu st\u00e1hl, jakmile se mu to hodilo.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Ponau\u010den\u00ed je zde z\u0159ejm\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Krom\u011b nespolehlivosti USA jako\u017eto garanta bezpe\u010dnosti existuj\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b dv\u011b dal\u0161\u00ed ponau\u010den\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Prvn\u00ed se t\u00fdk\u00e1 limit\u016f americk\u00e9 projekce moci:\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0, st\u0159edn\u011b velk\u00fd st\u00e1t pod desetilet\u00edmi sankc\u00ed, dok\u00e1zal b\u011bhem t\u00fddne tak siln\u011b zat\u00ed\u017eit americkou protivzdu\u0161nou obranu v cel\u00e9m Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b, \u017ee Washington musel st\u00e1hnout syst\u00e9my z Asie.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Druh\u00fd probl\u00e9m se t\u00fdk\u00e1 kvality americk\u00e9ho vybaven\u00ed. THAAD je pova\u017eov\u00e1n za jeden z nejmodern\u011bj\u0161\u00edch syst\u00e9m\u016f protiraketov\u00e9 obrany v USA, p\u0159esto se \u00cdr\u00e1nu poda\u0159ilo v prvn\u00edch dnech v\u00e1lky po\u0161kodit nebo zni\u010dit dva syst\u00e9my \u2013 a to pr\u00e1v\u011b raketami, kter\u00e9 m\u00e1 THAAD zachytit.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud se to stane proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu \u2013 co to vypov\u00edd\u00e1 o jeho schopnosti konkurovat soupe\u0159i, jako je \u010c\u00edna?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Dal\u0161\u00edm d\u016fsledkem v\u00e1lky by mohlo b\u00fdt dlouhodob\u00e9\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">pos\u00edlen\u00ed obnoviteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f energie v \u010c\u00edn\u011b<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Ka\u017ed\u00fd den, kdy je Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd, ka\u017ed\u00fd \u0161ok v cen\u00e1ch ropy, ka\u017ed\u00e1 panika na energetick\u00fdch trz\u00edch ukazuje sv\u011btu, pro\u010d je z\u00e1vislost na fosiln\u00edch palivech strategick\u00fdm rizikem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Zat\u00edmco se USA prezentovaly jako \u201ebenz\u00ednov\u00e1 pumpa sv\u011bta\u201c, \u010c\u00edna masivn\u011b investovala do obnoviteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f energie. Tato v\u00e1lka \u010d\u00ednskou strategii potvrzuje.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edna nyn\u00ed dominuje velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti dodavatelsk\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u016f zelen\u00e9 energie \u2013 od sol\u00e1rn\u00edch modul\u016f p\u0159es baterie a\u017e po elektromobily \u2013 a celosv\u011btov\u00e1 popt\u00e1vka po t\u011bchto technologi\u00edch roste.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Stru\u010dn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno: I v nejlep\u0161\u00edm mo\u017en\u00e9m sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i pro Washington \u010c\u00edna pouze ztr\u00e1c\u00ed levn\u00e9ho dodavatele ropy, kter\u00e9ho sotva pot\u0159ebuje \u2013 zat\u00edmco z\u00e1rove\u0148 roste popt\u00e1vka po technologi\u00edch, v nich\u017e je \u010c\u00edna sv\u011btov\u00fdm l\u00eddrem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud \u201evelk\u00e1 strategie\u201c spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v m\u00edrn\u00e9m naru\u0161en\u00ed soupe\u0159e a jeho t\u00edm v dlouhodob\u00e9m horizontu je\u0161t\u011b pos\u00edlen\u00ed, mohlo by st\u00e1t za to ji p\u0159ehodnotit.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Evropa je zasa\u017eena mnohem siln\u011bji<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Pro Evropu jsou d\u016fsledky t\u00e9to v\u00e1lky mnohem nebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">EU je siln\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na dovozu energie. Podle Eurostatu dosahuje z\u00e1vislost na dovozu\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">58,4 %<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0\u2013 co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee sob\u011bsta\u010dnost je pouze kolem\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">41 %<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0, co\u017e je zhruba polovina oproti \u010c\u00edn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">A na kom je Evropa z\u00e1visl\u00e1? P\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm na USA.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Od v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b se energetick\u00e1 z\u00e1vislost Evropy na USA \u010dty\u0159n\u00e1sobn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161ila: ze\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">4 % v roce 2018 na dne\u0161n\u00edch zhruba 22 %<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">A\u010dkoli \u00cdr\u00e1n nen\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdm dodavatelem do Evropy, v\u00e1lka u\u017e m\u00e1 dramatick\u00fd dopad na energetick\u00e9 trhy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Faktick\u00e1 blok\u00e1da Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu odstra\u0148uje z trhu p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">20 % celosv\u011btov\u00fdch dod\u00e1vek ropy<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0. Z\u00e1rove\u0148\u00a0je v\u00e1\u017en\u011b ovlivn\u011bna produkce LNG v Kataru, kter\u00e1 rovn\u011b\u017e p\u0159edstavuje p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">20 % celosv\u011btov\u00e9ho trhu s LNG .<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Evropa je obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b zraniteln\u00e1, proto\u017ee je siln\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na dovozu energie.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">A kdo z toho m\u00e1 prosp\u011bch?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">USA jsou jak zem\u00ed, kter\u00e1 v\u00e1lku zah\u00e1jila\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">, tak<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm sv\u011btov\u00fdm producentem ropy a plynu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Evropa tak v podstat\u011b plat\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">USA v\u00e1le\u010dnou pr\u00e9mii za energii<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0\u2013 pr\u00e9mii vytvo\u0159enou v\u00e1lkou, kterou vedou samotn\u00e9 USA.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V\u00e1lka by mohla m\u00edt podobn\u00fd v\u00fdsledek jako v\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b: Evropa tehdy nahradila rusk\u00fd plyn z plynovod\u016f americk\u00fdm zkapaln\u011bn\u00fdm zemn\u00edm plynem (LNG).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud bude nyn\u00ed destabilizov\u00e1n cel\u00fd Persk\u00fd z\u00e1liv, zbude je\u0161t\u011b m\u00e9n\u011b alternativ \u2013 a Evropa se stane je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce z\u00e1vislou na americk\u00e9 energii.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Existuje alternativa: Evropa by mohla urychlit svou energetickou transformaci a v\u00edce se spol\u00e9hat na \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 sol\u00e1rn\u00ed, bateriov\u00e9 a elektrick\u00e9 technologie.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">To ale vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed za\u010darovan\u00fd kruh: \u010d\u00edm v\u00edce se Evropa st\u00e1v\u00e1 z\u00e1vislou na americk\u00e9 energii, t\u00edm v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed je politick\u00fd tlak ze strany Washingtonu na blokov\u00e1n\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch alternativ.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">To se ji\u017e d\u011bje: Evropa uvaluje cla na \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 elektromobily a vy\u0161et\u0159uje \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 sol\u00e1rn\u00ed spole\u010dnosti \u2013 \u010dasto pod tlakem Washingtonu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">To d\u00e1le upevn\u00ed energetickou z\u00e1vislost Evropy.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Sv\u011bt, kde se moc po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V\u00e1lka proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu tak\u00e9 vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd precedent: supervelmoc \u00fato\u010d\u00ed na suver\u00e9nn\u00ed st\u00e1t, zab\u00edj\u00ed jeho veden\u00ed a pokou\u0161\u00ed se o zm\u011bnu re\u017eimu \u2013 bez v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9ho d\u016fvodu k v\u00e1lce.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">To vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed sv\u011bt, kde\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u201esiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed d\u011bl\u00e1 pr\u00e1vo\u201c<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">A v takov\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b je jedna v\u011bc nade v\u0161e d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1: moc.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edna je m\u00e1. Evropa ne.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edna m\u00e1 nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo na sv\u011bt\u011b, obrovskou pr\u016fmyslovou z\u00e1kladnu a technologickou dominanci v mnoha kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch odv\u011btv\u00edch.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Evropa je na druhou stranu vojensky rozt\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u011bn\u00e1, energeticky politicky z\u00e1visl\u00e1 a politicky rozd\u011blen\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Evropa je mocnost, kter\u00e1 m\u016f\u017ee skute\u010dn\u011b existovat pouze ve sv\u011bt\u011b s pravidly. Pr\u00e1v\u011b tato pravidla jsou v\u0161ak v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b podkop\u00e1v\u00e1na.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Z evropsk\u00e9ho pohledu je proto vlastn\u011b iracion\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u011blat si starosti s \u010c\u00ednou.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edna se s touto v\u00e1lkou pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b dob\u0159e vyrovn\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Evropa by se na druhou stranu mohla dostat do strategick\u00e9 z\u00e1vislosti, ze kter\u00e9 bude t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 se vymanit.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">A pr\u00e1v\u011b proto by se Evropa m\u011bla sama sebe zeptat:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Kdo vlastn\u011b h\u00e1j\u00ed z\u00e1jmy Evropy?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Arnaud Bertrand<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8c57238 quelle dc-has-condition dc-condition-empty elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"8c57238\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/arnaudbertrand.substack.com\/p\/no-the-war-on-iran-is-not-about-china?utm_source=post-email-title&amp;publication_id=4076906&amp;post_id=190066932&amp;utm_campaign=email-post-title&amp;isFreemail=false&amp;r=pf6gr&amp;triedRedirect=true&amp;_src_ref=deref-gmx.net&amp;utm_medium=email\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hlavn\u00edm argumentem na Z\u00e1pad\u011b, kter\u00fd ospravedl\u0148uje nez\u00e1konnou v\u00e1lku proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu, je v sou\u010dasnosti to, \u017ee&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":101915,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[30,38,1503,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101914"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=101914"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101914\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/101915"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=101914"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=101914"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=101914"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}