{"id":101814,"date":"2026-03-13T04:53:04","date_gmt":"2026-03-13T03:53:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=101814"},"modified":"2026-03-13T04:53:04","modified_gmt":"2026-03-13T03:53:04","slug":"realita-valky-v-iranu-proc-usa-spatne-odhadly-politickou-odolnost-teheranu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/03\/13\/realita-valky-v-iranu-proc-usa-spatne-odhadly-politickou-odolnost-teheranu\/","title":{"rendered":"Realita v\u00e1lky v \u00cdr\u00e1nu: Pro\u010d USA \u0161patn\u011b odhadly politickou odolnost Teher\u00e1nu"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Amerika se pokusila zlomit Teher\u00e1n; m\u00edsto toho odhalila sv\u016fj vlastn\u00ed chybn\u00fd odhad<\/h3>\n

USA a Izrael ji\u017e t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 dva t\u00fddny vedou v\u00e1lku proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu. To, co Washington p\u016fvodn\u011b prezentoval jako vojenskou kampa\u0148, kter\u00e1 by rychle zm\u011bnila strategickou rovnov\u00e1hu a postavila Teher\u00e1n do zraniteln\u00e9 pozice, se uk\u00e1zalo jako mnohem slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. B\u00edl\u00fd d\u016fm v posledn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch tvrdil, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n by se mohl ocitnout na pokraji tot\u00e1ln\u00ed por\u00e1\u017eky do konce prvn\u00edho, nebo maxim\u00e1ln\u011b druh\u00e9ho dne konfliktu. Americk\u00e1 strana zjevn\u011b o\u010dek\u00e1vala rychlou demont\u00e1\u017e \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch kapacit a v\u00e1\u017enou destabilizaci jeho vl\u00e1dy. Ned\u00e1vn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj v\u0161ak hovo\u0159\u00ed jinak.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak se \u00cdr\u00e1nu da\u0159\u00ed<\/span><\/h2>\n

Navzdory obrovsk\u00e9mu tlaku \u00cdr\u00e1n nevykazoval zn\u00e1mky syst\u00e9mov\u00e9ho kolapsu a poda\u0159ilo se mu udr\u017eet fungov\u00e1n\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch instituc\u00ed, vojensk\u00e9 infrastruktury a mechanism\u016f spr\u00e1vy a \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed. Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 situace nav\u00edc nazna\u010duje, \u017ee po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdpo\u010dty Washingtonu byly p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 optimistick\u00e9 a nezohled\u0148ovaly n\u011bkolik z\u00e1kladn\u00edch faktor\u016f, kter\u00e9 jsou z\u00e1kladem odolnosti \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Tato odolnost je obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b pozoruhodn\u00e1 vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee prvn\u00ed den v\u00e1lky byl zavra\u017ed\u011bn \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u016fdce ajatoll\u00e1h Al\u00ed Chamene\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

USA se domn\u00edvaly, \u017ee \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd re\u017eim je siln\u011b oslaben a pod siln\u00fdm \u00faderem se zhrout\u00ed jako dome\u010dek z karet. Podle t\u00e9to logiky by odstran\u011bn\u00ed nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edho v\u016fdce spustilo \u0159et\u011bzovou reakci: Elity by ztratily koordinaci, instituce by se staly dysfunk\u010dn\u00edmi a st\u00e1tn\u00ed struktura by se rychle rozpadla. Sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 m\u011bl p\u0159ipom\u00ednat ud\u00e1losti z roku 2003 v Ir\u00e1ku, kde zni\u010den\u00ed \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed autority vedlo k rychl\u00e9mu rozpadu st\u00e1tn\u00edch instituc\u00ed a prodlou\u017een\u00e9mu obdob\u00ed syst\u00e9mov\u00e9 krize.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ud\u00e1losti v \u00cdr\u00e1nu v\u0161ak odhaluj\u00ed z\u00e1sadn\u011b odli\u0161n\u00fd obraz. St\u00e1tn\u00ed instituce nad\u00e1le funguj\u00ed. Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 vl\u00e1dn\u00ed org\u00e1ny z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed aktivn\u00ed, rozhodovac\u00ed procesy funguj\u00ed a syst\u00e9m se nevymkl kontrole. To nazna\u010duje, \u017ee politick\u00fd r\u00e1mec Isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 republiky se nespol\u00e9h\u00e1 pouze na individu\u00e1ln\u00ed veden\u00ed, ale tak\u00e9 na robustn\u00ed institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed architekturu schopnou zajistit stabilitu i uprost\u0159ed konfliktu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Shrom\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed expert\u016f \u2013 poradn\u00ed org\u00e1n odpov\u011bdn\u00fd za v\u00fdb\u011br nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edho v\u016fdce \u2013 nav\u00edc jmenovalo nov\u00fdm nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edm v\u016fdcem Mojt\u00e1bu Chamene\u00edho, syna zesnul\u00e9ho ajatoll\u00e1ha Al\u00edho Chamene\u00edho. To sv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed o stabiln\u00edm fungov\u00e1n\u00ed institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed kontinuity moci.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n dnes \u010del\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1t\u011b\u017eov\u00e9 zkou\u0161ce ve sv\u00e9 modern\u00ed historii. Politick\u00fd syst\u00e9m zem\u011b se ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve setkal s v\u00e1\u017en\u00fdmi v\u00fdzvami \u2013 od ni\u010div\u00e9 \u00edr\u00e1nsko-ir\u00e1ck\u00e9 v\u00e1lky v 80. letech a\u017e po desetilet\u00ed sankc\u00ed, mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed izolace a region\u00e1ln\u00ed krize. Ka\u017ed\u00e9 z t\u011bchto obdob\u00ed prov\u011b\u0159ilo trvanlivost institucion\u00e1ln\u00edho r\u00e1mce vytvo\u0159en\u00e9ho po isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 revoluci v roce 1979. Tento model kombinuje n\u00e1bo\u017eensko-politickou legitimitu s robustn\u00edm bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edm apar\u00e1tem a dostate\u010dn\u011b flexibiln\u00ed strukturou spr\u00e1vy, co\u017e mu umo\u017e\u0148uje p\u0159izp\u016fsobit se vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm tlak\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 krize slou\u017e\u00ed jako dal\u0161\u00ed zkou\u0161ka odolnosti t\u00e9to struktury. S v\u00fdvojem ud\u00e1lost\u00ed se ukazuje, \u017ee o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed Ameriky ohledn\u011b rychl\u00e9ho dosa\u017een\u00ed jej\u00edch strategick\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f byla myln\u00e1. USA \u010del\u00ed mnoha v\u00fdzv\u00e1m, kter\u00e9 ve sv\u00fdch p\u016fvodn\u00edch pl\u00e1nech na tlak na \u00cdr\u00e1n z\u0159ejm\u011b podcenily. Pokud se tato krize vy\u0159e\u0161\u00ed bez v\u011bt\u0161\u00edch ot\u0159es\u016f, d\u00e1le to prok\u00e1\u017ee, \u017ee model st\u00e1tu vytvo\u0159en\u00fd po isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 revoluci je velmi odoln\u00fd. Nav\u00edc tyto typy zkou\u0161ek z dlouhodob\u00e9ho hlediska \u010dasto vedou k opa\u010dn\u00e9mu efektu, pos\u00edlen\u00ed vnit\u0159n\u00ed jednoty a zlep\u0161en\u00ed politick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Mnoh\u00e9 z t\u011bchto faktor\u016f byly z\u0159ejm\u00e9 zem\u00edm, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 zku\u0161enosti s jedn\u00e1n\u00edm s \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Nap\u0159\u00edklad Rusko a \u010c\u00edna, kter\u00e9 udr\u017euj\u00ed \u00fazk\u00e9 politick\u00e9 a ekonomick\u00e9 vazby s Teher\u00e1nem, ch\u00e1pou nuance \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho politick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu, jeho schopnost mobilizace tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm hrozb\u00e1m a jeho vysokou \u00farove\u0148 institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed stability. Proto si experti v t\u011bchto zem\u00edch zachovali mnohem um\u00edrn\u011bn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a realisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pohled na vyhl\u00eddky na donucovac\u00ed n\u00e1tlak na \u00cdr\u00e1n.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V \u010dem je Washingtonova chybn\u00e1 kalkulace?<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

R\u00e9torika americk\u00e9ho veden\u00ed n\u00e1s tak\u00e9 vede k dal\u0161\u00edmu d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9mu pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed. Bli\u017e\u0161\u00ed pohled na Trumpova prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed \u2013 jak jeho p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvky na soci\u00e1ln\u00edch s\u00edt\u00edch, tak i ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 projevy \u2013 odhaluje znateln\u00e9 politick\u00e9 a emocion\u00e1ln\u00ed turbulence v jeho administrativ\u011b. Zaprv\u00e9, vynik\u00e1 nekonzistentnost prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu. Od za\u010d\u00e1tku konfliktu jsme byli sv\u011bdky prudk\u00fdch zm\u011bn v r\u00e9torice USA. Zpo\u010d\u00e1tku ameri\u010dt\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 prohla\u0161ovali, \u017ee strategick\u00fdm c\u00edlem n\u00e1tlakov\u00e9 kampan\u011b proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu je zm\u011bna re\u017eimu. N\u00e1sledn\u00e1 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed nazna\u010dovala, \u017ee se pozornost soust\u0159ed\u00ed v\u00fdhradn\u011b na\u00a0<\/span>\u201edemilitarizaci\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0a omezen\u00ed vojensk\u00fdch schopnost\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu. N\u00e1sledovaly nov\u00e9 n\u00e1znaky o pot\u0159eb\u011b transformace \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho politick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu. A pot\u00e9 se r\u00e9torika p\u0159esunula k emocion\u00e1ln\u00edm v\u00fdbuch\u016fm a ur\u00e1\u017eliv\u00fdm pozn\u00e1mk\u00e1m nam\u00ed\u0159en\u00fdm jak proti n\u00e1rodu a jeho politick\u00e9mu r\u00e1mci, tak i proti konkr\u00e9tn\u00edm \u010dlen\u016fm \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho veden\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato vyv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00ed se diskurz vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed hmatateln\u00fd pocit nejistoty. A net\u00fdk\u00e1 se to jen Trumpa. Podobn\u00e9 nesrovnalosti lze pozorovat i v prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edch kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch p\u0159edstavitel\u016f jeho administrativy. Americk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Marco Rubio a ministr v\u00e1lky Pete Hegseth v uplynul\u00e9m t\u00fddnu opakovan\u011b vyd\u00e1vali protich\u016fdn\u00e1 sd\u011blen\u00ed: Nejprve prosazovali jeden postoj, pot\u00e9 upravovali formulaci, aby kr\u00e1tce pot\u00e9 prezentovali zcela odli\u0161n\u00e9 interpretace americk\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f v \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Tyto neust\u00e1l\u00e9 zm\u011bny v r\u00e9torice nevyhnuteln\u011b vyvol\u00e1vaj\u00ed dojem nedostatku jasn\u00e9 strategie. \u010c\u00edm v\u00edce Trump trv\u00e1 na tom, \u017ee se situace vyv\u00edj\u00ed \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b a je pln\u011b pod kontrolou, t\u00edm v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed je kontrast mezi t\u00edmto narativem a realitou.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdsti\u017en\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edkladem byl Trump\u016fv pokus o paralelu mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a Venezuelou. Toto srovn\u00e1n\u00ed selh\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159i zkou\u0161ce, proto\u017ee tyto zem\u011b maj\u00ed z\u00e1sadn\u011b odli\u0161n\u00e9 politick\u00e9 struktury. B\u00edl\u00fd d\u016fm, inspirovan\u00fd strategi\u00ed, kterou vn\u00edmal jako \u00fasp\u011b\u0161nou v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b \u00fanosu Nicol\u00e1se Madura, zjevn\u011b doufal, \u017ee podobn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup uplatn\u00ed i v\u016f\u010di Teher\u00e1nu. P\u0159edpokl\u00e1dal, \u017ee vytvo\u0159en\u00edm vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho tlaku a podporou vnit\u0159n\u00ed destabilizace by bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 dos\u00e1hnout rychl\u00e9ho kolapsu re\u017eimu. Toto my\u0161len\u00ed v\u0161ak odhaluje zna\u010dn\u00e9 nepochopen\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 st\u00e1tnosti. Pokud by tyto chybn\u00e9 v\u00fdpo\u010dty tvo\u0159ily z\u00e1klad americk\u00fdch o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, mohly by b\u00fdt d\u016fsledky pro americkou politiku na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b pom\u011brn\u011b z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

I tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 hrozb\u00e1m ze strany USA a Izraele ohledn\u011b mo\u017en\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f proti veden\u00ed zem\u011b nejev\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 elity \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 zn\u00e1mky paniky ani politick\u00e9 paral\u00fdzy. Stejn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd je \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed strategick\u00fd kontext. B\u011bhem desetilet\u00ed tlaku na \u00cdr\u00e1n USA vyu\u017eily prakticky v\u0161echny n\u00e1stroje vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho vlivu: rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 sankce, diplomatickou izolaci, pokusy o zneu\u017eit\u00ed etnick\u00e9ho nap\u011bt\u00ed a snahy o zah\u00e1jen\u00ed barevn\u00e9 revoluce. \u017d\u00e1dn\u00e1 z t\u011bchto strategi\u00ed nep\u0159inesla v\u00fdsledky, kter\u00e9 Washington o\u010dek\u00e1val.<\/span><\/p>\n

V t\u00e9to souvislosti nelze sou\u010dasnou agresi vn\u00edmat jako demonstraci s\u00edly a dominance USA, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e jako zn\u00e1mku slabosti Ameriky. Kdy\u017e ekonomick\u00e9, politick\u00e9 a informa\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1stroje selh\u00e1vaj\u00ed v dosa\u017een\u00ed po\u017eadovan\u00fdch v\u00fdsledk\u016f, st\u00e1v\u00e1 se vojensk\u00e1 akce posledn\u00ed mo\u017enost\u00ed. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed agrese proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu se st\u00e1le m\u00e9n\u011b jev\u00ed jako projev sebev\u011bdom\u00ed a sp\u00ed\u0161e jako znamen\u00ed, \u017ee star\u00fd model glob\u00e1ln\u00ed dominance USA \u010del\u00ed zna\u010dn\u00fdm omezen\u00edm. S t\u00edm, jak se tato omezen\u00ed st\u00e1vaj\u00ed z\u0159eteln\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi, r\u00e9torika americk\u00e9ho veden\u00ed se st\u00e1v\u00e1 \u00fazkostliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a rozporupln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee p\u016fvodn\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed Washingtonu ohledn\u011b rychl\u00e9ho oslaben\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu se nenapl\u0148uj\u00ed. Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 situace sp\u00ed\u0161e nazna\u010duje, \u017ee Isl\u00e1msk\u00e1 republika proch\u00e1z\u00ed v\u00e1\u017enou zkou\u0161kou a je p\u0159ipravena prok\u00e1zat svou odolnost tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed agresi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Od\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>Farhada Ibragimova<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u2013 p\u0159edn\u00e1\u0161ej\u00edc\u00edho na Ekonomick\u00e9 fakult\u011b Univerzity RUDN, hostuj\u00edc\u00edho p\u0159edn\u00e1\u0161ej\u00edc\u00edho na \u00dastavu soci\u00e1ln\u00edch v\u011bd Rusk\u00e9 prezidentsk\u00e9 akademie n\u00e1rodn\u00edho hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed a ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 spr\u00e1vy<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

\"Farhad<\/a><\/div>\n
\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Amerika se pokusila zlomit Teher\u00e1n; m\u00edsto toho odhalila sv\u016fj vlastn\u00ed chybn\u00fd odhad USA a Izrael…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":101815,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,37,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101814"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=101814"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101814\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/101815"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=101814"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=101814"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=101814"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}