{"id":101748,"date":"2026-03-13T00:12:31","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T23:12:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=101748"},"modified":"2026-03-12T13:00:43","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T12:00:43","slug":"jiz-se-nachazime-v-ranych-fazich-treti-svetove-valky-jeffrey-sachs-varuje-pred-globalni-katastrofou","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/03\/13\/jiz-se-nachazime-v-ranych-fazich-treti-svetove-valky-jeffrey-sachs-varuje-pred-globalni-katastrofou\/","title":{"rendered":"Ji\u017e se nach\u00e1z\u00edme v ran\u00fdch f\u00e1z\u00edch t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky \u2013 Jeffrey Sachs varuje p\u0159ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed katastrofou"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V nabit\u00e9m rozhovoru s novin\u00e1\u0159em Dannym Haiphongem vykresluje renomovan\u00fd americk\u00fd ekonom a b\u00fdval\u00fd poradce OSN Jeffrey Sachs bez\u00fat\u011b\u0161n\u00fd obraz sou\u010dasn\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 situace. Sachs klasifikuje v\u00e1lku vedenou USA a Izraelem proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu, kter\u00e1 trv\u00e1 ji\u017e asi dva t\u00fddny, jako \u201eranou f\u00e1zi t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky\u201c \u2013 a vid\u00ed jen malou re\u00e1lnou \u0161anci na jej\u00ed rychl\u00fd konec. M\u00edsto toho varuje p\u0159ed nezastavitelnou eskalac\u00ed, masivn\u00edm ekonomick\u00fdm kolapsem a \u00faplnou ztr\u00e1tou kontroly ze strany \u201ement\u00e1ln\u011b labiln\u00edho\u201c americk\u00e9ho prezidenta Donalda Trumpa.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Jeffrey Sachs: JSME VE T\u0158ET\u00cd SV\u011aTOV\u00c9 V\u00c1LCE a Trump nep\u0159e\u017eije dopady \u00cdr\u00e1nu\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/ds-ibE1666E?feature=oembed\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">1. Trumpovo nevyzpytateln\u00e9 chov\u00e1n\u00ed jako \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed nebezpe\u010d\u00ed<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Sachsov\u00e1 popisuje Trumpa jako \u201ezhoubn\u00e9ho narcistu\u201c, kter\u00fd \u201eminutu po minut\u011b\u201c vys\u00edl\u00e1 protich\u016fdn\u00e9 sign\u00e1ly. V jednu chv\u00edli prohl\u00e1s\u00ed v\u00e1lku za \u201et\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 konec\u201c, aby uklidnil ceny ropy \u2013 jen aby kr\u00e1tce pot\u00e9 ozn\u00e1mil masivn\u00ed eskalaci (nap\u0159. hrozbu vynucen\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu americk\u00fdm n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvem). Sachsov\u00e1 to nepova\u017euje za taktickou \u201eteorii \u0161\u00edlence\u201c, ale jednodu\u0161e za \u201e\u0161\u00edlenstv\u00ed\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u201eV \u010dele nejmocn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 s\u00edly sv\u011bta m\u00e1me psychicky labiln\u00edho \u010dlov\u011bka. Americk\u00fd syst\u00e9m v sou\u010dasnosti ji\u017e nefunguje \u2013 je sp\u00ed\u0161 jako \u0158\u00edm za Nera nebo Caliguly.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Ekonom si na\u0159\u00edk\u00e1 nad t\u00edm, \u017ee se zd\u00e1, \u017ee u\u017e nejsou \u017e\u00e1dn\u00ed \u201ezral\u00ed\u201c poradci, kte\u0159\u00ed by dok\u00e1zali Trumpa zkrotit. M\u00edsto toho dominuj\u00ed lichotn\u00edci, rodinn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00edci (jako Jared Kushner) a neschopnost.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">2. Vojensk\u00e1 realita: \u00cdr\u00e1n s\u00edl\u00ed, Izrael a USA ztr\u00e1cej\u00ed p\u016fdu pod nohama<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Sachs zd\u016fraz\u0148uje dva kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 \u010dasov\u00e9 rozm\u011bry:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Protivzdu\u0161n\u00e1 obrana vs. \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 rakety:<\/span><\/strong><br \/>\n<span dir=\"auto\">O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee izraelsk\u00e9 (Iron Dome) a syst\u00e9my protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany st\u00e1t\u016f Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu budou vy\u010derp\u00e1ny d\u0159\u00edve, ne\u017e se \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 raketov\u00e9 z\u00e1soby vy\u010derpaj\u00ed. \u010c\u00edm d\u00e9le bude konflikt trvat, t\u00edm ni\u010div\u011bj\u0161\u00ed budou \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky na izraelsk\u00e9 a americk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu (Katar, Bahrajn, Kuvajt, Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Ekonomick\u00e1 \u010dasovan\u00e1 bomba:<\/span><\/strong><br \/>\n<span dir=\"auto\">Ceny ropy jsou ji\u017e na 120 dolarech za barel (s v\u00fdkyvy). Sachs p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1: B\u011bhem n\u011bkolika t\u00fddn\u016f budou v\u00fdrobn\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, ropovody, p\u0159\u00edstavy a Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv (p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 20 % sv\u011btov\u00e9 ropy) z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti paralyzov\u00e1ny. To nevyhnuteln\u011b povede ke glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 katastrof\u011b \u2013 srovnateln\u00e9 s ropn\u00fdmi krizemi z let 1973\/74 a 1979\/80, jen hor\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Sachs popisuje my\u0161lenku rychl\u00e9 \u201ezm\u011bny re\u017eimu\u201c v Teher\u00e1nu prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm \u201e\u00faderu s dekapitac\u00ed\u201c jako \u201eklam\u201c Trumpa a Netanjahua \u2013 \u017eiven\u00fd desetilet\u00edmi izraelsk\u00fdch sn\u016f a zav\u00e1d\u011bj\u00edc\u00edmi \u201einformacemi\u201c Mossadu.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">3. Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv \u2013 bod, odkud nen\u00ed n\u00e1vratu<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n ji\u017e pr\u016fliv fakticky zablokoval (ani\u017e by jej form\u00e1ln\u011b uzav\u0159el). Trump hroz\u00ed, \u017ee americk\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo doprovod\u00ed obchodn\u00ed lod\u011b \u2013 na co\u017e Teher\u00e1n reagoval proti\u00fatoky. Sachsov\u00e1 pova\u017euje ponech\u00e1n\u00ed pr\u016flivu vojensky otev\u0159en\u00e9ho v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch t\u00fddnech\/m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch za nere\u00e1ln\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u201eCesta je \u00fazk\u00e1. Zas\u00e1hnout lod\u011b nen\u00ed t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9. Cel\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 operace byla zalo\u017eena na iluzi, \u017ee v\u0161eho bude dosa\u017eeno jednou operac\u00ed.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Dlouhodob\u00fd konflikt by spustil stagflaci (explozivn\u00ed r\u016fst cen energi\u00ed + ekonomick\u00fd kolaps) po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">4. Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed reakce a institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed selh\u00e1n\u00ed<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Krom\u011b Izraele a USA neexistuje jedin\u00e1 zem\u011b, kter\u00e1 by \u00fatok vn\u00edmala pozitivn\u011b, nebo alespo\u0148 lhostejn\u011b \u2013 zd\u011b\u0161eni jsou i bl\u00edzc\u00ed spojenci USA. Sachs vyz\u00fdv\u00e1 ke kolektivn\u00edmu tlaku ze strany mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho spole\u010denstv\u00ed (zejm\u00e9na zem\u00ed BRICS pod indick\u00fdm veden\u00edm), aby se toto \u0161\u00edlenstv\u00ed zastavilo.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u201ePokud Indie, \u010c\u00edna, Rusko, Braz\u00edlie, Jihoafrick\u00e1 republika, samotn\u00fd \u00cdr\u00e1n a dal\u0161\u00ed nahlas \u0159eknou: Tohle je \u0161\u00edlenstv\u00ed, tohle je nez\u00e1konn\u00e9, tohle ni\u010d\u00ed sv\u011btovou ekonomiku \u2013 pak by to mohlo m\u00edt dopad.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Ost\u0159e kritizuje skute\u010dnost, \u017ee i zem\u011b jako Indie (navzdory p\u0159edsednictv\u00ed BRICS a z\u00e1vislosti na rop\u011b) zat\u00edm protestovaly jen hlasit\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">5. Cesta k eskalaci \u2013 a mo\u017en\u00e9 d\u016fsledky<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Sachsov\u00e1 vid\u00ed, \u017ee dynamika se nad\u00e1le stup\u0148uje:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n dost\u00e1v\u00e1 podporu (zbran\u011b, finance, zpravodajsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby) od Ruska a \u010c\u00edny, kter\u00e9 v\u00e1lku vn\u00edmaj\u00ed jako \u00fatok na sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1jmy.<\/span><br \/>\n<span dir=\"auto\">Mohly by zas\u00e1hnout dal\u0161\u00ed zem\u011b.<\/span><br \/>\n<span dir=\"auto\">USA vyz\u00fdvaj\u00ed sv\u00e9 z\u00e1stupn\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, aby zv\u00fd\u0161ily svou anga\u017eovanost.<\/span><br \/>\n<span dir=\"auto\">Ropn\u00e1 infrastruktura na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b je systematicky ni\u010dena.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V\u00fdsledkem by mohl b\u00fdt bu\u010f rychl\u00fd (ale nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00fd) konec z d\u016fvodu rozumu \u2013 nebo eskalace do skute\u010dn\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Z\u00e1v\u011br: Bud\u00ed\u010dek pro sv\u011bt<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Jeffrey Sachs nenech\u00e1v\u00e1 prostor pro pochybnosti: Sou\u010dasn\u00fd konflikt nen\u00ed jen region\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lkou, ale \u00fatokem na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed energetick\u00fd syst\u00e9m, sv\u011btovou ekonomiku a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed pr\u00e1vo. Kon\u010d\u00ed nad\u011bj\u00ed, \u017ee n\u011bkdo v B\u00edl\u00e9m dom\u011b kone\u010dn\u011b Trumpa p\u0159ivede k rozumu \u2013 t\u0159eba mu po\u0161ept\u00e1: \u201eVyhr\u00e1l jsi, te\u010f p\u0159esta\u0148 a bude\u0161 hrdina.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Zda je tato nad\u011bje realistick\u00e1, z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 ot\u00e1zkou. P\u0159epis odhaluje p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm jednu v\u011bc: Podle jednoho z nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch kritik\u016f americk\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky je sv\u011bt na pokraji katastrofy. A mu\u017e s \u010derven\u00fdm knofl\u00edkem se u\u017e z\u0159ejm\u011b nechov\u00e1 racion\u00e1ln\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Cel\u00fd podcast s Dannym Haiphongem a Jeffreym Sachsem je k dispozici online a m\u011blo by si ho poslechnout co nejv\u00edce lid\u00ed \u2013 obzvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 te\u010f. \u010cas je kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1185\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/kuryr-podpis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"24\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>V nabit\u00e9m rozhovoru s novin\u00e1\u0159em Dannym Haiphongem vykresluje renomovan\u00fd americk\u00fd ekonom a b\u00fdval\u00fd poradce OSN&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":101749,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,1052,40,889],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101748"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=101748"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101748\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/101749"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=101748"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=101748"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=101748"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}