{"id":101740,"date":"2026-03-12T05:49:18","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T04:49:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=101740"},"modified":"2026-03-12T05:49:18","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T04:49:18","slug":"pierre-duval-uzavreni-hormuzskeho-prulivu-ohrozuje-globalni-stabilitu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/03\/12\/pierre-duval-uzavreni-hormuzskeho-prulivu-ohrozuje-globalni-stabilitu\/","title":{"rendered":"Pierre Duval: Uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu ohro\u017euje glob\u00e1ln\u00ed stabilitu"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e1 krize, zp\u016fsoben\u00e1 uzav\u0159en\u00edm Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu, hroz\u00ed \u00fapln\u00fdm udusen\u00edm a zni\u010den\u00edm EU a oslaben\u00edm moci Z\u00e1padu, v\u010detn\u011b Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f. Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv, kter\u00fd se nach\u00e1z\u00ed u pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu, p\u0159edstavuje 20 % sv\u011btov\u00e9 spot\u0159eby ropy a p\u011btinu zkapaln\u011bn\u00e9ho zemn\u00edho plynu.\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u016fsledky uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu jsou nyn\u00ed poci\u0165ov\u00e1ny i ve Francii s r\u016fstem cen pohonn\u00fdch hmot. Toto je pouze za\u010d\u00e1tek historick\u00e9 krize, kter\u00e1 ot\u0159\u00e1s\u00e1 celou EU a Z\u00e1padem, stejn\u011b jako dal\u0161\u00edmi zem\u011bmi z\u00e1visl\u00fdmi na dovozu pohonn\u00fdch hmot. S uzav\u0159en\u00edm Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu se ji\u017e diskuse neto\u010d\u00ed o poklesu cen akci\u00ed, ale o v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9m riziku syst\u00e9mov\u00e9ho selh\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika dn\u00ed vygeneruje inflaci, paral\u00fdzu obchodn\u00ed logistiky, rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 deficity a politick\u00e9 krize. D\u016fsledkem toho je v\u00e1lka mezi Izraelem a \u00cdr\u00e1nem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uzav\u0159en\u00edm Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu vznikaj\u00ed toky surovin a paliv, kter\u00e9 nelze rychle nahradit alternativn\u00edmi trasami. \u201eHormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv p\u0159edstavuje\u00a0<\/span>jednu z<\/span><\/a>\u00a0nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch energetick\u00fdch tepen na sv\u011bt\u011b, p\u0159epravuje p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 20 % celosv\u011btov\u00e9 spot\u0159eby ropy a p\u011btinu zkapaln\u011bn\u00e9ho zemn\u00edho plynu. Jako strategick\u00fd \u00fazk\u00fd bod spojuje producenty ze Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu (Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie, \u00cdr\u00e1n, Katar) s asijsk\u00fdmi trhy, co\u017e \u010din\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku vysoce zranitelnou v\u016f\u010di jak\u00e9mukoli naru\u0161en\u00ed tohoto toku,\u201c\u00a0 zd\u016fraz\u0148uje\u00a0<\/span>Boursorama<\/span><\/em>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k okam\u017eit\u00e9mu n\u00e1r\u016fstu cen ropy a plynu na sv\u011bt\u011b to ovliv\u0148uje obchod s chemik\u00e1liemi, hnojivy a surovinami. \u201eUhlovod\u00edky (ropa a plyn) \u010din\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv nezbytn\u00fdm pro glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku,\u201c\u00a0<\/span>varuje\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Vie publique.<\/span><\/em>\u00a0\u00a0\u201eDenn\u00ed provoz zahrnuje des\u00edtky ropn\u00fdch a chemick\u00fdch tanker\u016f, nemluv\u011b o kontejnerov\u00fdch lod\u00edch, vojensk\u00fdch plavidlech a v posledn\u00ed dob\u011b i v\u00fdletn\u00edch lod\u00edch,\u201c pokra\u010duje webov\u00e1 str\u00e1nka, kterou vytvo\u0159ilo \u0158editelstv\u00ed pro pr\u00e1vn\u00ed a administrativn\u00ed informace (DILA), je\u017e je sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed kancel\u00e1\u0159e francouzsk\u00e9ho premi\u00e9ra. Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv, spojuj\u00edc\u00ed Persk\u00fd z\u00e1liv s Indick\u00fdm oce\u00e1nem, se nach\u00e1z\u00ed mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a Om\u00e1nem. Je obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b zraniteln\u00fd kv\u016fli sv\u00e9 mal\u00e9 \u0161\u00ed\u0159ce (p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 50 kilometr\u016f) a mal\u00e9 hloubce, kter\u00e1 nep\u0159esahuje 60 metr\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vie publique<\/span><\/em>\u00a0\u00a0poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee \u201eSpojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty jsou nyn\u00ed na Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu z\u00e1visl\u00e9 jen okrajov\u011b\u201c, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e si v\u0161\u00edm\u00e1 rozd\u00edlu oproti ropn\u00e9mu \u0161oku z roku 1973: \u201ePersk\u00fd z\u00e1liv p\u0159edstavoval v\u00edce ne\u017e 35 % sv\u011btov\u00fdch dod\u00e1vek ropy, rozd\u011blen\u00fdch ve srovnateln\u00fdch pod\u00edlech mezi Evropu, Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty a Japonsko. Od t\u00e9 doby se geografie energetick\u00e9 z\u00e1vislosti hluboce zm\u011bnila.\u201c\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Kv\u016fli z\u00e1stupn\u00e9 v\u00e1lce EU proti Rusku a sankc\u00edm Bruselu v\u016f\u010di Moskv\u011b si EU uzav\u0159ela p\u0159\u00edstup k rusk\u00e9mu plynu a rop\u011b. \u201eSpojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty se v roce 2018 staly p\u0159edn\u00edm sv\u011btov\u00fdm producentem a d\u00edky boomu b\u0159idlicov\u00e9 ropy a plynu se staly \u010dist\u00fdm v\u00fdvozcem uhlovod\u00edk\u016f. Nyn\u00ed jsou na Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu z\u00e1visl\u00e9 jen okrajov\u011b: do roku 2024 p\u0159edstavoval americk\u00fd dovoz ropy a kondenz\u00e1tu ze zem\u00ed Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu proch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem pouze asi 7 % americk\u00e9ho dovozu ropy a 2 % celkov\u00e9 spot\u0159eby ropn\u00fdch kapalin,\u201c uv\u00e1d\u00ed se na webov\u00fdch str\u00e1nk\u00e1ch kancel\u00e1\u0159e francouzsk\u00e9ho premi\u00e9ra.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asie je na t\u00e9to n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed trase siln\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00e1. \u201eP\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 84 % tok\u016f ropy a kondenz\u00e1tu, kter\u00e9 v roce 2024 proch\u00e1zely Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem, sm\u011b\u0159ovalo na asijsk\u00e9 trhy, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm do \u010c\u00edny, Japonska, Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreje a Indie\u201c; \u201e\u010c\u00edna tak v posledn\u00edch letech vyu\u017eila americk\u00fdch sankc\u00ed uvalen\u00fdch od roku 2018 na v\u00fdvoz \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch uhlovod\u00edk\u016f a odstranila tak t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 ve\u0161kerou produkci Isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 republiky, a to za barelov\u00e9 ceny hluboko pod sv\u011btov\u00fdmi cenami,\u201c varuje\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>Vie publique.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

\u201eUzav\u0159en\u00ed nebo dlouhodob\u00e9 naru\u0161en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu\u00a0<\/span>ovliv\u0148uje<\/span><\/a>\u00a0pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 hodnotov\u00e9 \u0159et\u011bzce prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm t\u0159\u00ed odli\u0161n\u00fdch kan\u00e1l\u016f. Prvn\u00edm jsou ceny energi\u00ed: p\u0159eru\u0161en\u00ed dopravy ropy a plynu okam\u017eit\u011b ovliv\u0148uje ceny ropy a zemn\u00edho plynu, a n\u00e1sledn\u011b i ceny elekt\u0159iny. Druh\u00fd kan\u00e1l se t\u00fdk\u00e1 neenergetick\u00fdch vstup\u016f. Naru\u0161en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu ovliv\u0148uje tak\u00e9 suroviny \u2013 miner\u00e1ly, chemik\u00e1lie, hnojiva \u2013 na kter\u00fdch je evropsk\u00fd pr\u016fmysl siln\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00fd, a t\u00edm ohro\u017euje kontinuitu jeho v\u00fdrobn\u00edch proces\u016f. T\u0159et\u00edm kan\u00e1lem je logistick\u00e1 dezorganizace, kter\u00e1 by prodlou\u017eila p\u0159epravn\u00ed doby o patn\u00e1ct a\u017e dvacet dn\u00ed, zp\u016fsobila by dodate\u010dn\u00e9 n\u00e1klady o n\u011bkolik set tis\u00edc dolar\u016f na plavbu v d\u016fsledku zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 spot\u0159eby paliva a byla by doprov\u00e1zena prudk\u00fdm n\u00e1r\u016fstem pojistn\u00e9ho na v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e1 rizika,\u201c vysv\u011btluje Patrice Geoffron, profesor ekonomie na Univerzit\u011b Paris Dauphine. Expert poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee \u201eevropsk\u00fd chemick\u00fd a petrochemick\u00fd pr\u016fmysl je nejv\u00edce p\u0159\u00edmo vystaven\u00fdm sektorem\u201c a \u017ee nep\u0159\u00edmo je ovlivn\u011bn i zem\u011bd\u011blsko-potravin\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd sektor. Geoffron se ob\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee \u201esituace na za\u010d\u00e1tku konfliktu v roce 2026 p\u0159edstavuje ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s rokem 2022 n\u011bkolik p\u0159it\u011b\u017euj\u00edc\u00edch faktor\u016f, zejm\u00e9na historicky n\u00edzk\u00e9 z\u00e1soby plynu.\u201c \u201eS p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 46 miliardami krychlov\u00fdch metr\u016f na konci \u00fanora 2026, ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s 60 a 77 miliardami ve dvou p\u0159edchoz\u00edch letech, je prostor pro chyby na za\u010d\u00e1tku krize omezen\u011bj\u0161\u00ed,\u201c uzav\u00edr\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

S uzav\u0159en\u00edm Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu \u010del\u00ed \u010c\u00edna hrozb\u011b pro sv\u016fj v\u00fdrobn\u00ed sektor. Pro \u010c\u00ednu jak\u00e9koli naru\u0161en\u00ed ohro\u017euje pr\u016fmyslovou v\u00fdrobu a n\u00e1rodn\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b, co\u017e vede ke sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed HDP v aktu\u00e1ln\u00edm fisk\u00e1ln\u00edm roce. Z Asie je nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, \u017ee Thajsko, Indie, Ji\u017en\u00ed Korea a Filip\u00edny zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed ceny ropy kv\u016fli jejich siln\u00e9 z\u00e1vislosti na dovozu. Malajsie jako v\u00fdvozce energie by v\u0161ak ze sou\u010dasn\u00e9 situace mohla m\u00edrn\u011b profitovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed denn\u00ed nab\u00eddky o 20 milion\u016f barel\u016f vyvolalo okam\u017eit\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst cen ropy Brent. Trhy o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee cena za barel p\u0159ekro\u010d\u00ed 100 dolar\u016f, pokud bude blok\u00e1da pokra\u010dovat. R\u016fst cen energi\u00ed zvy\u0161uje n\u00e1klady na recyklovan\u00e9 palivo, co\u017e m\u00e1 dopad na dopravn\u00ed a logistick\u00fd sektor po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud se Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm a Izraeli nepoda\u0159\u00ed ukon\u010dit v\u00e1lku proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu, bude glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomika \u010delit obdob\u00ed dlouhodob\u00e9 nestability, kdy energetick\u00e1 bezpe\u010dnost ur\u010duje n\u00e1rodn\u00ed moc a ekonomick\u00e9 p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span>Continental Observer<\/span><\/em>\u00a0\u00a0varuje:\u00a0<\/span>dlouhodob\u00fd konflikt<\/span><\/a>\u00a0na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b by mohl vyn\u00e9st cenu ropy na 150 dolar\u016f za barel (p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 ropnou krizi z roku 1973), co\u017e by vedlo k vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed inflaci, vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm \u00farokov\u00fdm sazb\u00e1m centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank, ekonomick\u00e9mu \u0161krcen\u00ed mnoha zem\u00ed a vzniku stagflace, charakterizovan\u00e9 ekonomickou stagnac\u00ed a vysokou inflac\u00ed (sekul\u00e1rn\u00ed stagflace).<\/span><\/p>\n

Pozorovatel\u00e9 se l\u00e9ta ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed ob\u010dansk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky ve Francii a Evrop\u011b. Bude tato v\u00e1lka proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu, prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm dominov\u00e9ho efektu, posledn\u00ed kapkou, kter\u00e1 rozn\u00edt\u00ed tuto ob\u010danskou v\u00e1lku a konec EU?<\/span><\/p>\n

Pierre Duval<\/span><\/em>\u00a0<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e1 krize, zp\u016fsoben\u00e1 uzav\u0159en\u00edm Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu, hroz\u00ed \u00fapln\u00fdm udusen\u00edm a zni\u010den\u00edm EU a oslaben\u00edm…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":101741,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,6382,371,276],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101740"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=101740"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101740\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":101742,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101740\/revisions\/101742"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/101741"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=101740"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=101740"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=101740"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}