{"id":101732,"date":"2026-03-12T05:32:40","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T04:32:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=101732"},"modified":"2026-03-12T05:32:40","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T04:32:40","slug":"alexandre-lemoine-pohrbily-spojene-staty-jednani-o-ukrajine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/03\/12\/alexandre-lemoine-pohrbily-spojene-staty-jednani-o-ukrajine\/","title":{"rendered":"Alexandre Lemoine: Poh\u0159bily Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty jedn\u00e1n\u00ed o Ukrajin\u011b?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Americk\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 operace v \u00cdr\u00e1nu by mohla zcela zastavit proces vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed o Ukrajin\u011b. S vypuknut\u00edm v\u00e1lky na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b m\u00e1 Trumpova administrativa dal\u0161\u00ed starosti a status Washingtonu jako \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e9ho prost\u0159edn\u00edka p\u0159i \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed konflikt\u016f byl v\u00e1\u017en\u011b ot\u0159esen.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Prezident Donald Trump se dostal k moci se slibem ukon\u010den\u00ed americk\u00fdch v\u00e1lek, ale minul\u00fd t\u00fdden zah\u00e1jil novou v\u00e1lku t\u00edm, \u017ee na\u0159\u00eddil\u00a0<\/span>\u201e<\/span><\/a>\u00a0proaktivn\u00ed obrannou\u201c vojenskou operaci v reakci na \u00fadajnou \u201ebezprost\u0159edn\u00ed\u201c hrozbu ze strany \u00cdr\u00e1nu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nov\u00fd konflikt na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b iniciovan\u00fd USA je dvojitou ranou pro Trump\u016fv obraz\u00a0<\/span>m\u00edrotvorce<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, p\u00ed\u0161e\u00a0<\/span>Responsible Statecraft<\/span><\/em>\u00a0. Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee jedn\u00e1n\u00ed mezi Teher\u00e1nem a Washingtonem o budoucnosti \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho programu selhala, mo\u017en\u00e1 definitivn\u011b a neodvolateln\u011b. Zpochyb\u0148ov\u00e1na je v\u0161ak i dal\u0161\u00ed Trumpova priorita: vy\u0159e\u0161en\u00ed \u010dty\u0159let\u00e9ho konfliktu mezi Ruskem a Ukrajinou.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00e1lka s \u00cdr\u00e1nem nezm\u011bn\u00ed dlouhodob\u00fd sm\u011br rusk\u00e9 speci\u00e1ln\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 operace. Prodlou\u017e\u00ed v\u0161ak boje a zkomplikuje p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed. Jej\u00ed d\u016fsledky nejen oslabuj\u00ed vliv Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f na jejich protivn\u00edky, ale tak\u00e9 vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 a vojensk\u00e9 pob\u00eddky pro Kyjev a Moskvu, aby se nehrnuly s diplomatickou cestou. Pr\u016flom je st\u00e1le mo\u017en\u00fd, ale obt\u00ed\u017ee d\u00e1le sni\u017euj\u00ed vyhl\u00eddky na m\u00edr na Ukrajin\u011b.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Bylo by nads\u00e1zkou nazvat jedn\u00e1n\u00ed mezi Ruskem a Ukrajinou zprost\u0159edkovan\u00e1 USA v prvn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch roku 2026 \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fdmi; nicm\u00e9n\u011b v posledn\u00ed dob\u011b bylo dosa\u017eeno stabiln\u00edho, i kdy\u017e pomal\u00e9ho, pokroku. Ameri\u010dt\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 uvedli, \u017ee se strany dohodly na n\u011bkter\u00fdch bodech t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00edch se monitorov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed po skon\u010den\u00ed boj\u016f. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 v\u011bt\u0161ina hlavn\u00edch ot\u00e1zek, v\u010detn\u011b bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch z\u00e1ruk pro Rusko i Ukrajinu, vojensk\u00fdch schopnost\u00ed a sm\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky Kyjeva, roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed NATO a \u00fazemn\u00edho urovn\u00e1n\u00ed, z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nevy\u0159e\u0161ena. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b panoval pocit, \u017ee strany jsou optimistick\u00e9 a o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee \u010dasem dos\u00e1hnou dohody prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm pravideln\u00fdch sch\u016fzek.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Dnes, t\u00fdden po zah\u00e1jen\u00ed v\u00e1lky USA s \u00cdr\u00e1nem, se v\u0161ak situace jev\u00ed mnohem nejist\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. M\u00edrov\u00e9 rozhovory se zdaj\u00ed b\u00fdt zastaveny. Trumpova administrativa nav\u00edc\u00a0<\/span>nezve\u0159ejnila<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 nov\u00e9 informace ohledn\u011b \u010dasov\u00e9ho harmonogramu a programu dal\u0161\u00edho kola jedn\u00e1n\u00ed a neexistuj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 n\u00e1znaky jej\u00edho z\u00e1jmu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eky jedn\u00e1n\u00ed jsou \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b logistick\u00e9. Rychl\u00e1 eskalace vojensk\u00fdch akc\u00ed zru\u0161ila sch\u016fzky v Ab\u00fa Zab\u00ed. Dal\u0161\u00edm pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fdm omezen\u00edm je pracovn\u00ed vyt\u00ed\u017een\u00ed americk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy. Zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed vyslanec Steve Witkoff naopak z\u00edskal \u010das, proto\u017ee jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s \u00cdr\u00e1nem jsou na neur\u010dito pozastavena, ale dal\u0161\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 osobnosti ministerstva zahrani\u010d\u00ed a v\u00e1lky jsou zanepr\u00e1zdn\u011bny dom\u00e1c\u00edmi i glob\u00e1ln\u00edmi d\u016fsledky v\u00e1lky prezidenta Trumpa na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b. Prost\u011b nemaj\u00ed mo\u017enost cestovat do neutr\u00e1ln\u00edch zem\u00ed v Evrop\u011b ani do jin\u00fdch \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed sv\u011bta.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eky diplomatick\u00e9ho procesu jsou je\u0161t\u011b nebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Zaprv\u00e9, v\u00e1lka ovlivn\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ceny ropy a z\u00e1sobovac\u00ed trasy, vdechne nov\u00fd \u017eivot rusk\u00e9 ekonomice a sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed z\u00e1jem Moskvy o jedn\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Samotn\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd tlak by jist\u011b nedonutil rusk\u00e9ho prezidenta Vladimira Putina ukon\u010dit jeho speci\u00e1ln\u00ed operaci, ale nyn\u00ed, kdy\u017e v\u00e1lka na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b naru\u0161ila v\u00fdvoz ropy a zv\u00fd\u0161ila ceny a popt\u00e1vku po rusk\u00e9 rop\u011b, se Trumpova administrativa ocitla bez jak\u00e9koli ekonomick\u00e9 p\u00e1ky.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Neo\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd zisk, kter\u00fd Rusko z\u00edsk\u00e1 z naru\u0161en\u00ed obchodu zp\u016fsoben\u00e9ho v\u00e1lkou s \u00cdr\u00e1nem, m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fd. Tyto finan\u010dn\u00ed prost\u0159edky v\u0161ak poskytnou do\u010dasn\u00fd oddech a umo\u017en\u00ed Moskv\u011b odlo\u017eit bolestiv\u00e9 syst\u00e9mov\u00e9 zm\u011bny v rusk\u00e9 ekonomice. Zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f z ropy otev\u0159e Putinovi nov\u00e9 mo\u017enosti podpory vojensk\u00e9 kampan\u011b.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 operace na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b by mohly ovlivnit i rovnov\u00e1hu sil na Ukrajin\u011b, co\u017e by d\u00e1le sn\u00ed\u017eilo z\u00e1jem Moskvy o jedn\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Rychl\u00e1 spot\u0159eba americk\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany a munice proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu bude m\u00edt negativn\u00ed dopad na podporu ukrajinsk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil. I kdy\u017e sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed dod\u00e1vek americk\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany na Ukrajinu nemus\u00ed v\u00e9st k z\u00e1sadn\u00ed zm\u011bn\u011b, zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed zranitelnost ukrajinsk\u00e9 civiln\u00ed a pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 infrastruktury, co\u017e \u010dasem ovlivn\u00ed vojenskou v\u00fdrobu a civiln\u00ed obyvatelstvo. Nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, zda budou vojensk\u00e9, pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 nebo civiln\u00ed d\u016fsledky dostate\u010dn\u011b z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e9, aby donutily Kyjev k dal\u0161\u00edm \u00fastupk\u016fm, ale Putin a jeho poradci jsou pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b p\u0159ipraveni vy\u010dkat a uvid\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejz\u00e1va\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed probl\u00e9m americk\u00e9 mediace na Ukrajin\u011b se t\u00fdk\u00e1 obou protivn\u00edk\u016f stejnou m\u011brou: Washington ztratil d\u016fv\u011bryhodnost jako medi\u00e1tor. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty ji\u017e dvakr\u00e1t, v \u010dervnu 2025 a minul\u00fd t\u00fdden, b\u011bhem jedn\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edmo za\u00fato\u010dily na \u00cdr\u00e1n. \u00da\u010dastn\u00edci posledn\u00edho kola rozhovor\u016f dokonce tvrdili, \u017ee jedn\u00e1n\u00ed byla pouze z\u00e1st\u011brkou a odveden\u00edm pozornosti, zat\u00edmco se Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty a Izrael p\u0159ipravovaly na v\u00e1lku. Podobn\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 se odehr\u00e1l s p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00edm v Gaze za Trumpovy administrativy: rukojm\u00ed byli propu\u0161t\u011bni, ale izraelsk\u00e9 n\u00e1lety nep\u0159estaly.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nen\u00ed zdaleka jist\u00e9, zda Kyjev a Moskva st\u00e1le v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee Washington je schopen plnit sv\u00e9 z\u00e1vazky nebo garantovat bezpe\u010dnost stran. Rusko se m\u016f\u017ee ob\u00e1vat, \u017ee jak\u00fdkoli slib ze strany Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f, zejm\u00e9na ohledn\u011b neutr\u00e1ln\u00edho statusu Ukrajiny nebo neroz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed NATO, by se mohl uk\u00e1zat jako podvod, stejn\u011b jako \u00fastn\u00ed uji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed dan\u00e1 Teher\u00e1nu. Ukrajina se zase bude ob\u00e1vat bolestiv\u00fdch \u00fastupk\u016f, ani\u017e by od Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f z\u00edskala pr\u00e1vn\u011b z\u00e1vazn\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky a nebyla schopna zabr\u00e1nit nov\u00e9mu konfliktu za rusk\u00fdch podm\u00ednek.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Takov\u00fd nedostatek d\u016fv\u011bry ve Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty jako medi\u00e1tora fakticky ukon\u010duje diplomacii vedenou Washingtonem. A bude t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 ho p\u0159ekonat i po skon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky s \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Pokud si strany nebudou jist\u00e9, \u017ee jedn\u00e1n\u00ed vy\u0159e\u0161\u00ed jejich z\u00e1kladn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed obavy a povedou k dlouhodob\u00e9mu m\u00edru, s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed daj\u00ed p\u0159ednost pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed v boj\u00edch v nad\u011bji, \u017ee \u00fasp\u011bchy na boji\u0161ti jim poskytnou siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1ruky.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud chce Trump skute\u010dn\u011b ukon\u010dit konflikt na Ukrajin\u011b, m\u011bla by jeho administrativa nyn\u00ed za\u010d\u00edt uva\u017eovat o tom, jak obnovit d\u016fv\u011bru ve Washington jako vyjednava\u010de a medi\u00e1tora. Mohla by nap\u0159\u00edklad p\u0159eskupit americk\u00fd vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00ed t\u00fdm nebo zah\u00e1jit seri\u00f3zn\u00ed diskuse, a to jak na dom\u00e1c\u00ed \u00farovni, tak se spojenci, o tom, jak pr\u00e1vn\u011b upevnit pov\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky a u\u010dinit je z\u00e1vazn\u00fdmi vedle dohody o p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump\u00a0<\/span>ji\u017e p\u0159iznal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee neo\u010dek\u00e1val, \u017ee urovn\u00e1n\u00ed bude tak obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9. A v\u011bci se v budoucnu jen zkomplikuj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Alexandre Lemoine<\/span><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Americk\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 operace v \u00cdr\u00e1nu by mohla zcela zastavit proces vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed o Ukrajin\u011b. S vypuknut\u00edm…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":101733,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1060,1503,22,26,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101732"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=101732"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101732\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/101733"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=101732"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=101732"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=101732"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}