{"id":101730,"date":"2026-03-12T05:31:01","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T04:31:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=101730"},"modified":"2026-03-12T05:31:01","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T04:31:01","slug":"german-gorraiz-lopez-smerem-ke-globalnimu-ekonomickemu-chaosu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/03\/12\/german-gorraiz-lopez-smerem-ke-globalnimu-ekonomickemu-chaosu\/","title":{"rendered":"Germ\u00e1n Gorraiz L\u00f3pez: Sm\u011brem ke glob\u00e1ln\u00edmu ekonomick\u00e9mu chaosu?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Shakespeare hlasem vyd\u011b\u0161en\u00e9ho Jind\u0159icha IV. vyjad\u0159uje strach a bezmoc lidstva tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 chaosu zm\u011bn: \u201e\u00d3 Bo\u017ee, kdybychom si mohli vybrat, zda bychom mohli \u010d\u00edst v knize osudu a vid\u011bt ot\u00e1\u010den\u00ed \u010dasu, vid\u011bt, jak se n\u00e1hoda posm\u00edv\u00e1 a jak zm\u011bna napl\u0148uje kaln\u00fd poh\u00e1r tis\u00edci barvami!\u201c<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Chaosem m\u00e1me na mysli n\u011bco nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00e9ho, \u200b\u200bco p\u0159esahuje kr\u00e1tkozrakost, kterou na\u0161e o\u010di dok\u00e1\u017e\u00ed na\u010drtnout pouze tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00fdm ud\u00e1lostem. Na\u0161e mysl je tedy schopna sekvenovat pouze fragmenty obrovsk\u00e9ho genomu chaosu, co\u017e n\u00e1s nevyhnuteln\u011b vede k uchylov\u00e1n\u00ed se k v\u00fdrazu \u201emot\u00fdl\u00ed efekt\u201c, abychom se pokusili vysv\u011btlit z\u00e1vratn\u00e9 spojen\u00ed dost\u0159ediv\u00fdch a odst\u0159ediv\u00fdch sil. Toto spojen\u00ed utv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed nesouvislou skl\u00e1da\u010dku organizovan\u00e9ho chaosu, kter\u00fd se schyluje, a spust\u00ed erupci teleologick\u00e9ho sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, kter\u00fd se vyzna\u010duje extr\u00e9mn\u00ed volatilitou.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1vislost na rop\u011b. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee alternativn\u00ed energie v rozvojov\u00fdch zem\u00edch st\u00e1le vy\u017eaduj\u00ed obrovsk\u00e9 dotace, aby byly \u017eivotaschopn\u00e9, \u017ee hydraulick\u00e9 \u0161t\u011bpen\u00ed vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 obavy o \u017eivotn\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed a \u017ee setrva\u010dnost ropn\u00fdch aktiv zabr\u00e1n\u00ed velk\u00fdm spole\u010dnostem v opu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed jejich st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edho vybaven\u00ed a infrastruktury, bude se glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomika v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm desetilet\u00ed nad\u00e1le obracet k z\u00e1vislosti na rop\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Konflikt na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b v\u0161ak spustil nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9 \u201en\u00e1kupn\u00ed \u0161\u00edlenstv\u00ed\u201c, jeho\u017e c\u00edlem je navy\u0161ovat z\u00e1soby ropy v jednotliv\u00fdch zem\u00edch, a vytla\u010dil tak cenu ropy Brent na 100 dolar\u016f za barel. Dlouhotrvaj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00e1lka na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b by mohla cenu ropy vytla\u010dit na 150 dolar\u016f za barel (o\u017eivit tak ropnou krizi z roku 1973), co\u017e by vedlo k rostouc\u00ed inflaci, v\u00fdrazn\u00e9mu zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb centr\u00e1ln\u00edmi bankami, ekonomick\u00e9mu udu\u0161en\u00ed mnoha zem\u00ed a vzniku stagflace, kter\u00e1 se vyzna\u010duje ekonomickou stagnac\u00ed a vysokou inflac\u00ed (sekul\u00e1rn\u00ed stagflace). Sm\u011b\u0159ujeme ke stagflaci?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Term\u00edn \u201estagflace\u201c ozna\u010duje kombinaci nekontrolovateln\u00e9 inflace a ekonomick\u00e9 recese (podle MMF ekonomika vstupuje do technick\u00e9 recese po dvou po sob\u011b jdouc\u00edch \u010dtvrtlet\u00edch poklesu n\u00e1rodn\u00edho HDP). Zavedl jej v roce 1965 tehdej\u0161\u00ed britsk\u00fd ministr financ\u00ed Ian McLeod v projevu p\u0159ed britsk\u00fdm parlamentem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Toto je jedna z nejnebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch kombinac\u00ed pro ekonomiku, proto\u017ee ob\u011b naru\u0161uj\u00ed trh a \u0161okov\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00e1 k boji proti ekonomick\u00e9 stagnaci maj\u00ed vedlej\u0161\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinek v podob\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed inflace. Pro stimulaci spot\u0159eby a vyveden\u00ed z recese jsou tedy nezbytn\u00e9 terapie zalo\u017een\u00e9 na fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed a monet\u00e1rn\u00ed expanzi \u2013 opat\u0159en\u00ed, kter\u00e1 n\u00e1sledn\u011b generuj\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed inflaci a vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed za\u010darovan\u00fd kruh. To vede ke zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed ceny pen\u011bz na\u0159\u00edzen\u00e9mu centr\u00e1ln\u00edmi bankami, co\u017e hroz\u00ed ekonomick\u00fdm udu\u0161en\u00edm nes\u010detn\u00fdch zem\u00ed zat\u00ed\u017een\u00fdch stratosf\u00e9rick\u00fdm ve\u0159ejn\u00fdm dluhem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Tato situace v kombinaci s prudce rostouc\u00edmi cenami ropy a energi\u00ed donut\u00ed zem\u011b p\u0159ijmout politiku sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed r\u016fstu, co\u017e povede ke sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00edho obchodu a v kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku ke konci ekonomick\u00e9 globalizace. To bude m\u00edt za n\u00e1sledek vedlej\u0161\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinky, jako je konec masov\u00e9 turistiky, n\u00e1vrat p\u0159em\u00edst\u011bn\u00fdch podnik\u016f a zaveden\u00ed ob\u011bhov\u00e9ho hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed a produkt\u016f s ekozna\u010dkou, co\u017e v kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku do p\u011bti let povede k n\u00e1vratu k rozt\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u011bn\u00fdm ekonomik\u00e1m.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em><span dir=\"auto\"><a href=\"https:\/\/observateur-continental.fr\/?module=articles&amp;action=view&amp;id=7674\">Germ\u00e1n Gorraiz L\u00f3pez<\/a> , politick\u00fd analytik<\/span><\/em><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Shakespeare hlasem vyd\u011b\u0161en\u00e9ho Jind\u0159icha IV. vyjad\u0159uje strach a bezmoc lidstva tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 chaosu zm\u011bn:&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":101731,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,59,45,683],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101730"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=101730"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101730\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/101731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=101730"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=101730"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=101730"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}