{"id":101715,"date":"2026-03-12T04:22:43","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T03:22:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=101715"},"modified":"2026-03-12T04:22:43","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T03:22:43","slug":"trumpova-chyba-ohledne-iranu-se-rozsiruje-za-hranice-blizkeho-vychodu-a-ma-dopady-v-eurasii-a-po-celem-svete","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/03\/12\/trumpova-chyba-ohledne-iranu-se-rozsiruje-za-hranice-blizkeho-vychodu-a-ma-dopady-v-eurasii-a-po-celem-svete\/","title":{"rendered":"Trumpova chyba ohledn\u011b \u00cdr\u00e1nu se roz\u0161i\u0159uje za hranice Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu a m\u00e1 dopady v Eurasii a po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Eskalace s \u00cdr\u00e1nem m\u00e1 celosv\u011btov\u00e9 d\u016fsledky. Volatilita trhu s ropou, region\u00e1ln\u00ed nestabilita a obavy o euroasijskou bezpe\u010dnost za hranicemi Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu zd\u016fraz\u0148uj\u00ed \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed geopolitick\u00e9 s\u00e1zky. Odolnost \u00cdr\u00e1nu a riziko dlouhodob\u00e9ho konfliktu zpochyb\u0148uj\u00ed c\u00edle Washingtonu. V\u00e1lka se tak m\u016f\u017ee uk\u00e1zat jako mnohem n\u00e1kladn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e se o\u010dek\u00e1valo.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Minul\u00fd v\u00edkend op\u011bt nab\u00eddl neochv\u011bjnou p\u0159ipom\u00ednku toho, \u017ee americko-izraelsk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu se nevyv\u00edj\u00ed tak, jak mnoz\u00ed ve Washingtonu a Tel Avivu doufali. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 raketov\u00e9 a bezpilotn\u00ed \u00fatoky si vy\u017e\u00e1daly ob\u011bti v Izraeli, zat\u00edmco \u00fatoky na za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu a americk\u00e9 spojence se zintenzivnily. Koluj\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy o rostouc\u00edch ztr\u00e1t\u00e1ch americk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy, i kdy\u017e se Pentagon sna\u017e\u00ed omezit podrobnosti. Mezit\u00edm, navzdory nasazen\u00ed americk\u00e9ho n\u00e1mo\u0159nictva, pokra\u010duj\u00ed naru\u0161en\u00ed provozu v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu, co\u017e dramaticky sni\u017euje p\u0159epravu tanker\u016f a v podstat\u011b udr\u017euje glob\u00e1ln\u00ed energetick\u00e9 trhy na hran\u011b. A mo\u017en\u00e1 nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je, \u017ee se \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd politick\u00fd syst\u00e9m nezhroutil. Isl\u00e1msk\u00e1 republika ve skute\u010dnosti stoj\u00ed vzdorovit\u011b a pln\u011b funk\u010dn\u00ed. To m\u00e1 \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed d\u016fsledky, a to i glob\u00e1ln\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rozhodnut\u00ed americk\u00e9ho prezidenta Donalda Trumpa eskalovat konflikt po boku Izraele znamenalo dramatick\u00fd odklon od\u00a0<\/span>narativu \u201ekonec v\u00e1lk\u00e1m\u201c<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, kter\u00fd d\u0159\u00edve posiloval jeho politickou z\u00e1kladnu s heslem \u201eMAGA\u201c (\u201eMake America Great Again\u201c). Ned\u00e1vno jsem\u00a0<\/span>argumentoval<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee vstup do rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 v\u00e1lky proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu by mohl zni\u010dit pr\u00e1v\u011b tuto politickou koalici. Hlavn\u00edm slibem hnut\u00ed \u201eAmerika na prvn\u00edm m\u00edst\u011b\u201c koneckonc\u016f bylo pr\u00e1v\u011b vyhnout se nekone\u010dn\u00fdm v\u00e1lk\u00e1m na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b a z\u00e1rove\u0148 obnovit americkou ekonomiku doma.<\/span><\/p>\n

V \u010dervnu 2025 jsem\u00a0<\/span>varoval<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edm\u00e1 intervence USA ve v\u00e1lce mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a Izraelem pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b vy\u0161plh\u00e1 ceny ropy na 120\u2013150 dolar\u016f za barel a ceny americk\u00e9ho benzinu se dostanou do politicky nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9ho rozmez\u00ed 4\u20135 dolar\u016f za galon. V pond\u011bl\u00ed (9. b\u0159ezna) cena ropy Brent kr\u00e1tce vystoupala\u00a0<\/span>nad 119 dolar\u016f<\/span><\/a>\u00a0za barel, co\u017e je nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 od \u010dervna 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00e1r\u016fst n\u00e1sledoval po t\u00fddnech eskalace nap\u011bt\u00ed a obav, \u017ee by se Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv mohl fakticky \u00fapln\u011b uzav\u0159\u00edt. V jednu chv\u00edli se p\u0159eprava tanker\u016f sn\u00ed\u017eila ze zhruba dvou des\u00edtek denn\u011b na pouhou hrstku, zat\u00edmco celkov\u00e1 lodn\u00ed doprava pr\u016flivem klesla ze zhruba sta plavidel denn\u011b na\u00a0<\/span>jednotku procenta<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Ceny od t\u00e9 doby pon\u011bkud klesly a v \u00fater\u00fd se pohybovaly kolem\u00a0<\/span>84\u201386 dolar\u016f<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, ale trh z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 extr\u00e9mn\u011b volatiln\u00ed. Obchodn\u00edci s energi\u00ed reaguj\u00ed na ka\u017ed\u00fd vojensk\u00fd v\u00fdvoj a trhy s opcemi st\u00e1le s\u00e1zej\u00ed na sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, kdy ropa vystoup\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>k 135<\/span><\/a>\u00a0nebo\u00a0<\/span>dokonce 150 dolar\u016fm<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

I kdyby se tedy ropa prozat\u00edm stabilizovala, geopolitick\u00e1 rizikov\u00e1 pr\u00e9mie tu bude po celou dobu trv\u00e1n\u00ed konfliktu. Hormuzsk\u00fd region z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nejcitliv\u011bj\u0161\u00edm energetick\u00fdm uzlem na sv\u011bt\u011b a \u00fatoky na infrastrukturu v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu p\u0159idaly dal\u0161\u00ed nejistotu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nicm\u00e9n\u011b Trump se st\u00e1le m\u016f\u017ee sna\u017eit z dan\u00e9 situace vyt\u011b\u017eit n\u011bco dobr\u00e9ho. Trump\u016fv styl zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky je \u010dasto bez obalu \u201etransak\u010dn\u00ed\u201c. Sta\u010d\u00ed pouk\u00e1zat na to, jak se opakovan\u011b pokou\u0161el vyu\u017e\u00edt p\u0159edchoz\u00ed americkou pomoc Ukrajin\u011b k dosa\u017een\u00ed politick\u00fdch \u00fastupk\u016f (pokud jde o\u00a0<\/span>miner\u00e1ly vz\u00e1cn\u00fdch zemin<\/span><\/a>\u00a0atd.). Podobn\u011b rozzlobil izraelskou pravici n\u00e1vrhy, jako je jeho\u00a0<\/span>pl\u00e1n \u201erozvoje\u201c Gazy<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

V kontextu sou\u010dasn\u00e9 v\u00e1lky by se mohla objevit podobn\u00e1 logika. Analytici poznamenali, \u017ee konflikt ji\u017e nyn\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>stoj\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Washington miliardy dolar\u016f na munici a logistickou podporu. Pokud se kampa\u0148 bude protahovat, Trump by se mohl pokusit \u201eod\u0161kodnit\u201c Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty t\u00edm, \u017ee by po\u017eadoval roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed pr\u00e1v na umis\u0165ov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1kladen nebo ekonomick\u00e9 \u00fastupky v regionu. Americk\u00fd prezident sv\u00fdm typick\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem ji\u017e nadnesl my\u0161lenku \u201e\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159evzet\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c pr\u016flivu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jin\u00fdmi slovy, pokud by Washington a Tel Aviv vyhl\u00e1sily v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed, Trump by mohl prosazovat roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed americk\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch z\u00e1kladen, kontrolu nad strategickou infrastrukturou a privilegovan\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup k \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9mu energetick\u00e9mu sektoru.<\/span><\/p>\n

Takov\u00fd v\u00fdsledek by v tomto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i p\u0159irozen\u011b znamenal pro Izrael zna\u010dn\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 n\u00e1klady. Dlouhodob\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edtomnost USA na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed by posunula region\u00e1ln\u00ed rovnov\u00e1hu ve prosp\u011bch Washingtonu. \u017didovsk\u00fd st\u00e1t by pak mohl (v tomto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i) v\u00e1lku vyhr\u00e1t, ale ocitl by se v situaci, kdy se bude d\u011blit o geopolitickou ko\u0159ist se sv\u00fdm spojencem, supervelmoc\u00ed: U\u017e jsem psal o tom, jak se Trump zjevn\u011b sna\u017eil \u201ep\u0159ekalibrovat\u00a0<\/span>\u201c<\/span><\/a>\u00a0slo\u017eit\u00fd americko-izraelsk\u00fd vztah.<\/span><\/p>\n

A\u0165 je to jakkoli, nov\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy ji\u017e nazna\u010duj\u00ed rozpory mezi Washingtonem a Tel Avivem. Trump se ka\u017edop\u00e1dn\u011b zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt dychtiv\u00fd omezit trv\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00e1lky kv\u016fli dom\u00e1c\u00edm politick\u00fdm rizik\u016fm a rostouc\u00edm cen\u00e1m ropy, zat\u00edmco izrael\u0161t\u00ed v\u016fdci se zdaj\u00ed b\u00fdt odhodl\u00e1ni v n\u00ed pokra\u010dovat, dokud nebudou \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 kapacity zcela oslabeny.<\/span><\/p>\n

V s\u00e1zce samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nejsou jen USA a region\u00e1ln\u00ed akt\u00e9\u0159i:\u00a0<\/span>\u010c\u00edna<\/span><\/a>\u00a0je nap\u0159\u00edklad v\u00e1\u017en\u011b zasa\u017eena, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e pro \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 plavidla v \u00fa\u017ein\u011b neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 velk\u00e1 v\u00fdjimka.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moskva zase dlouhodob\u011b pova\u017euje sv\u00e9ho \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho spojence za kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd n\u00e1razn\u00edkov\u00fd st\u00e1t, kter\u00fd pom\u00e1h\u00e1 stabilizovat\u00a0<\/span>rusk\u00fd ji\u017en\u00ed strategick\u00fd oblouk<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Pokud by Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty z\u00edskaly vojensk\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup k \u00cdr\u00e1nu,\u00a0<\/span>d\u016fsledky<\/span><\/a>\u00a0by byly dostate\u010dn\u011b z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e9. Americk\u00e9 s\u00edly by se v takov\u00e9m sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i mohly um\u00edstit pobl\u00ed\u017e Kaspick\u00e9ho mo\u0159e, v logistick\u00e9m dosahu Kavkazu a St\u0159edn\u00ed Asie a mnohem bl\u00ed\u017ee k ji\u017en\u00edmu Rusku. To by znamenalo dal\u0161\u00ed vrstvy geopolitick\u00e9ho \u201eobkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed\u201c Ruska.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z americk\u00e9ho pohledu by se oslaben\u00fd \u00cdr\u00e1n nav\u00edc roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159il nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d Eurasi\u00ed: zrychlil by z\u00e1padn\u00ed vliv na ji\u017en\u00edm Kavkaze a potenci\u00e1ln\u011b by tak\u00e9 tla\u010dil st\u0159edoasijsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty k v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed spolupr\u00e1ci se Z\u00e1padem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed USA a Izraele v\u0161ak zdaleka nen\u00ed jist\u00e9. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 asymetrick\u00e9 kapacity (raketov\u00e9 \u00fatoky, naru\u0161en\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed dopravy) z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed siln\u00e9 a dlouhodob\u00e1 nestabilita v Hormuzsk\u00e9 oblasti by mohla zp\u016fsobit obrovsk\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 n\u00e1klady na cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b, \u010d\u00edm\u017e by se taktick\u00e1 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed prom\u011bnila ve strategick\u00e1 selh\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

A p\u0159esto nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt snadn\u00e9 v\u00fdchodisko, proto\u017ee Rubikon u\u017e byl, tak\u0159\u00edkaj\u00edc, p\u0159ekro\u010den. Prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00e1lka m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt klidn\u011b Trumpovou nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed strategickou chybou (mo\u017en\u00e1 motivovanou izraelsk\u00fdm tlakem, v\u010detn\u011b\u00a0<\/span>vyd\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u2013 co\u017e je mo\u017enost, kterou\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159ipou\u0161t\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0i politolog John Mearsheimer ). D\u016fsledky by v\u0161ak m\u011bly b\u00fdt glob\u00e1ln\u00ed a dlouhodob\u00e9, s dostate\u010dn\u011b nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00fdmi v\u00fdsledky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD.<\/a> v oboru antropologie, je soci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u011bdec specializuj\u00edc\u00ed se na etnick\u00e9 a n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 konflikty s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm v\u00fdzkumem geopolitick\u00e9 dynamiky a kulturn\u00edch interakc\u00ed<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

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Eskalace s \u00cdr\u00e1nem m\u00e1 celosv\u011btov\u00e9 d\u016fsledky. Volatilita trhu s ropou, region\u00e1ln\u00ed nestabilita a obavy o…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":101716,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,452],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101715"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=101715"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101715\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/101716"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=101715"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=101715"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=101715"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}