{"id":101673,"date":"2026-03-12T00:33:59","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T23:33:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=101673"},"modified":"2026-03-11T16:02:56","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T15:02:56","slug":"trh-prace-usa-oslabil-unorova-cisla-meni-ocekavani-investoru","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/03\/12\/trh-prace-usa-oslabil-unorova-cisla-meni-ocekavani-investoru\/","title":{"rendered":"Trh pr\u00e1ce USA oslabil: \u00danorov\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla m\u011bn\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed investor\u016f"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p>\u00danorov\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va z americk\u00e9ho trhu pr\u00e1ce p\u0159inesla z\u00e1sadn\u00ed korekci o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed ohledn\u011b s\u00edly dom\u00e1c\u00ed ekonomiky. Neo\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd \u00fabytek pracovn\u00edch m\u00edst v kombinaci s p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edm tlakem mezd stav\u00ed Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed rezervn\u00ed syst\u00e9m p\u0159ed komplexn\u00ed dilema \u2013 jak reagovat na ochlazuj\u00edc\u00ed se zam\u011bstnanost bez toho, aby do\u0161lo k op\u011btovn\u00e9mu zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed inflace. Jsou tedy aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00fadaje pouze p\u0159echodn\u00fdm statistick\u00fdm v\u00fdkyvem, nebo p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed prvn\u00ed n\u00e1znaky pot\u0159eby p\u0159ehodnocen\u00ed dosavadn\u00edch investi\u010dn\u00edch strategi\u00ed?<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Makroekonomika<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Ekonomika Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f p\u0159i\u0161la za \u00fanor o 92 000 pracovn\u00edch m\u00edst, co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje pom\u011brn\u011b siln\u00fd kontrast oproti tr\u017en\u00edmu konsenzu, kter\u00fd po\u010d\u00edtal s p\u0159\u00edr\u016fstkem na \u00farovni 50 tis\u00edc. Tento v\u00fdsledek je o to znepokojiv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, \u017ee jde ji\u017e o t\u0159et\u00ed pokles zam\u011bstnanosti za posledn\u00edch 5 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f. V kombinaci s n\u00e1r\u016fstem m\u00edry nezam\u011bstnanosti na 4,4 % se otev\u00edr\u00e1 diskuse o tom, zda se nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e1 ekonomika neocitla na prahu cyklick\u00e9ho obratu, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed rezervn\u00ed syst\u00e9m bude muset v n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch velmi citliv\u011b zva\u017eovat ka\u017ed\u00fd krok v oblasti m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Souhra nep\u0159\u00edzniv\u00fdch faktor\u016f<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Analytici ozna\u010duj\u00ed \u00fanorov\u00fd v\u00fdsledek za soub\u011bh n\u011bkolika nep\u0159\u00edzniv\u00fdch okolnost\u00ed, kter\u00e9 Thomas Simons ze spole\u010dnosti Jefferies trefn\u011b ozna\u010dil jako \u201edokonalou bou\u0159i\u201c. K negativn\u00edmu trendu p\u0159isp\u011blo nejen extr\u00e9mn\u00ed zimn\u00ed po\u010das\u00ed, kter\u00e9 paralyzovalo v\u00edce region\u016f, ale tak\u00e9 hlubok\u00e9 trhliny v kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch sektorech. Nejv\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed propad zaznamenalo zdravotnictv\u00ed, kter\u00e9 p\u0159i\u0161lo o 28 000 m\u00edst v d\u016fsledku rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 st\u00e1vky pracovn\u00edk\u016f Kaiser Permanente v Kalifornii a na Havaji. Paraleln\u011b s t\u011bmito do\u010dasn\u00fdmi faktory v\u0161ak prob\u00edh\u00e1 tak\u00e9 hlub\u0161\u00ed transformace v technologick\u00e9m sektoru. Informa\u010dn\u00ed slu\u017eby ztr\u00e1cej\u00ed v pr\u016fm\u011bru 5 000 m\u00edst m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b, co\u017e je p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd d\u016fsledek integrace um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence a snahy firem maximalizovat efektivitu na \u00fakor tradi\u010dn\u00edch pracovn\u00edch pozic. Celkov\u00fd obraz oslaben\u00ed dopl\u0148uj\u00ed agresivn\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00ed \u0161krty, kter\u00e9 od \u0159\u00edjna 2024 zredukovaly feder\u00e1ln\u00ed pracovn\u00ed s\u00edlu o v\u00edce ne\u017e desetinu.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Mzdov\u00fd paradox<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Pro investory p\u0159edstavuje jeden z nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch otazn\u00edk\u016f paradoxn\u011b pr\u00e1v\u011b v\u00fdvoj mezd. Navzdory \u00fabytku pracovn\u00edch m\u00edst toti\u017e pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 hodinov\u00e1 mzda vzrostla meziro\u010dn\u011b o 3,8 %, \u010d\u00edm\u017e m\u00edrn\u011b p\u0159ekonala o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed trhu. Tento faktor je pro Fed mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00fd, proto\u017ee v kombinaci s volatilitou cen ropy vyvolanou konfliktem na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b br\u00e1n\u00ed rychlej\u0161\u00edmu poklesu inflace k po\u017eadovan\u00e9mu c\u00edli. Pr\u016fzkumy nav\u00edc odhalily znepokojiv\u00e9 prodlou\u017een\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 d\u00e9lky nezam\u011bstnanosti na t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 26 t\u00fddn\u016f, co\u017e je nejv\u00edce od konce roku 2021. V neposledn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b m\u00edra participace pracovn\u00ed s\u00edly klesla na 62 %, co\u017e nazna\u010duje, \u017ee \u010d\u00e1st Ameri\u010dan\u016f ztr\u00e1c\u00ed motivaci hledat uplatn\u011bn\u00ed.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Implikace pro portfolia<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Reakce trhu na tato data byla okam\u017eit\u00e1 a projevila se p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v \u00faprav\u011b o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed ohledn\u011b \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb. Podle n\u00e1stroje CME FedWatch se nyn\u00ed investo\u0159i ve velk\u00e9m p\u0159ikl\u00e1n\u011bj\u00ed ke sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i, ve kter\u00e9m k prvn\u00edmu sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed sazeb dojde v \u010dervenci, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e do konce roku se o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed celkem dva takov\u00e9 kroky. Mary Daly z Fed San Francisco sice p\u0159ipou\u0161t\u00ed, \u017ee trh pr\u00e1ce vykazuje zn\u00e1mky nestability, av\u0161ak Fed z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 v opatrn\u00e9 pozici kv\u016fli hrozb\u011b stagfla\u010dn\u00edch tlak\u016f. A\u010dkoli ekonomiku zat\u00edm dr\u017e\u00ed nad vodou siln\u00e1 spot\u0159eba vysokop\u0159\u00edjmov\u00fdch skupin obyvatelstva, pro investory je \u00fanorov\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va jasn\u00fdm sign\u00e1lem ke zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 obez\u0159etnosti. [1]<\/p>\n<h4><strong>Anna \u0160uhajdov\u00e1, p\u0159edsedkyn\u011b p\u0159edstavenstva <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalmarkets.sk\/cs\/\"><strong>CAPITAL MARKETS, o.c.p., a.s.<\/strong><\/a><\/h4>\n<p>[1] V\u00fdhledov\u00e1 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed p\u0159edpoklady a aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e1 nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt p\u0159esn\u00e1, nebo vych\u00e1zej\u00ed z aktu\u00e1ln\u00edho ekonomick\u00e9ho prost\u0159ed\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se m\u016f\u017ee zm\u011bnit. Tato prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed nezaru\u010duj\u00ed budouc\u00ed v\u00fdkonnost. V\u00fdhledov\u00e1 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed svou povahou zahrnuj\u00ed riziko a nejistotu, proto\u017ee souvisej\u00ed s budouc\u00edmi ud\u00e1lostmi a okolnostmi, kter\u00e9 nelze p\u0159edv\u00eddat, a skute\u010dn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj a v\u00fdsledky se mohou v\u00fdrazn\u011b li\u0161it od v\u00fdsledk\u016f vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00fdch nebo implikovan\u00fdch v jak\u00fdchkoli v\u00fdhledov\u00fdch prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edch.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Zdroje:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/03\/06\/february-2026-jobs-report.html\">https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/03\/06\/february-2026-jobs-report.html<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=\/trading\/interest-rates\/countdown-to-fomc.html\">https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=\/trading\/interest-rates\/countdown-to-fomc.html<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00danorov\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va z americk\u00e9ho trhu pr\u00e1ce p\u0159inesla z\u00e1sadn\u00ed korekci o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed ohledn\u011b s\u00edly dom\u00e1c\u00ed ekonomiky. Neo\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":101029,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,45,286,8599],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101673"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=101673"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101673\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/101029"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=101673"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=101673"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=101673"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}