{"id":101607,"date":"2026-03-11T05:17:09","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T04:17:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=101607"},"modified":"2026-03-11T05:17:09","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T04:17:09","slug":"iransky-uzel-proc-se-trump-obratil-na-putina","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/03\/11\/iransky-uzel-proc-se-trump-obratil-na-putina\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00fd uzel: Pro\u010d se Trump obr\u00e1til na Putina"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Washington zah\u00e1jil v\u00e1lku s \u00cdr\u00e1nem, ale jedin\u011b Moskva m\u016f\u017ee pomoci ji ukon\u010dit<\/h3>\n

Telefon\u00e1t americk\u00e9ho prezidenta Donalda Trumpa rusk\u00e9mu prezidentovi Vladimiru Putinovi v pond\u011bl\u00ed ve\u010der byl zjevn\u011b pokusem naj\u00edt cestu ze strategick\u00e9 slep\u00e9 uli\u010dky, kter\u00e1 se ji\u017e za\u010dala objevovat ve v\u00e1lce, kterou Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty a Izrael zah\u00e1jily proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Washington i nad\u00e1le \u010din\u00ed odv\u00e1\u017en\u00e1 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed. Trump trv\u00e1 na sv\u00e9m pr\u00e1vu diktovat politickou budoucnost \u00cdr\u00e1nu a dokonce spekuluje o jmenov\u00e1n\u00ed duchovn\u00edho v\u016fdce zem\u011b. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 nal\u00e9hav\u011b \u017e\u00e1d\u00e1 kapit\u00e1ny tanker\u016f, aby projevili odvahu a prolomili blok\u00e1du Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu ze strany Isl\u00e1msk\u00fdch revolu\u010dn\u00edch gard.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159esto se ji\u017e stup\u0148uje dynamika velk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, kterou zah\u00e1jily Washington a Tel Aviv. Politick\u00e9 prost\u0159ed\u00ed kolem konfliktu se m\u011bn\u00ed zp\u016fsobem, kter\u00fd je pro USA st\u00e1le v\u00edce nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dokonce i n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed z nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch partner\u016f Washingtonu se distancuj\u00ed. Kuvajt, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nejv\u011brn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed americk\u00fd spojenec v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu po Jord\u00e1nsku, prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee neposkytl sv\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed k \u00fatok\u016fm na \u00cdr\u00e1n, a to navzdory d\u016fkaz\u016fm nazna\u010duj\u00edc\u00edm opak. Mezit\u00edm syrsk\u00e9 kurdsk\u00e9 skupiny nal\u00e9haj\u00ed na Ir\u00e1\u010dany a \u00cdr\u00e1nce, aby ned\u016fv\u011b\u0159ovali USA.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1rove\u0148 se t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 denn\u011b objevuj\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy o z\u00e1kulisn\u00edch kontaktech mezi Rij\u00e1dem a Teher\u00e1nem a mezi dal\u0161\u00edmi arabsk\u00fdmi hlavn\u00edmi m\u011bsty a \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Pro Washington se za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 r\u00fdsovat vyhl\u00eddka relativn\u00ed diplomatick\u00e9 izolace.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump\u016fv vztah s Izraelem samoz\u0159ejm\u011b z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 strategickou alianc\u00ed. Sou\u010dasn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj konfliktu v\u0161ak zjevn\u011b neodpov\u00edd\u00e1 tomu, co m\u011bl na mysli, kdy\u017e schvaloval \u00fadery na \u00cdr\u00e1n.<\/span><\/p>\n

V tomto bod\u011b se logika st\u00e1v\u00e1 z\u0159ejmou: je \u010das zavolat Moskv\u011b.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump doufal, \u017ee silou roz\u0159e\u017ee to, co by se dalo nazvat\u00a0<\/span>\u201e\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm uzlem\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0. Narativ, \u017ee by mohl ukon\u010dit \u010dty\u0159icetiletou konfrontaci s \u00cdr\u00e1nem rozhodnou vojenskou akc\u00ed, byl ve Washingtonu politicky atraktivn\u00ed. M\u00edsto toho se uzel jen ut\u00e1hl.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u011bkolik jeho kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch oblast\u00ed nelze rozmotat bez \u00fa\u010dasti Ruska. To bylo jasn\u00e9 od sam\u00e9ho za\u010d\u00e1tku, a\u010dkoli pro Trumpa a jeho t\u00fdm to z\u016fstalo p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b teoretickou znalost\u00ed. Nyn\u00ed z\u00edsk\u00e1vaj\u00ed praktick\u00e9 zku\u0161enosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prvn\u00edm faktorem je \u00fapadek americk\u00e9 autority na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b, zejm\u00e9na v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejen\u017ee americk\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 infrastruktura v regionu utrp\u011bla v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 \u0161kody, ale byly oslabeny i prvky \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architektury, kter\u00e1 je z\u00e1kladem izraelsk\u00e9 obrann\u00e9 strategie, v\u010detn\u011b \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed jeho syst\u00e9mu v\u010dasn\u00e9ho varov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je\u0161t\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je, \u017ee konflikt uk\u00e1zal st\u00e1t\u016fm v regionu, \u017ee americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 a politick\u00e9 z\u00e1ruky jsou mnohem m\u00e9n\u011b spolehliv\u00e9, ne\u017e se d\u0159\u00edve p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dalo. Jakmile se takov\u00e9 pochybnosti zako\u0159en\u00ed, nelze je snadno zvr\u00e1tit.\u00a0<\/span>\u201eMlet\u00e9 maso\u201c,<\/span><\/em>\u00a0tak\u0159\u00edkaj\u00edc, washingtonsk\u00fdch bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch z\u00e1ruk monarchi\u00edm v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu, nelze jednodu\u0161e vr\u00e1tit zp\u011bt do celku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ch\u00e1pe to Trump pln\u011b? Je t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 \u0159\u00edct.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jeho pokus zapojit tureck\u00e9ho prezidenta Recepa Tayyipa Erdogana nazna\u010duje, \u017ee si mo\u017en\u00e1 je\u0161t\u011b neuv\u011bdomuje rozsah strategick\u00e9 zm\u011bny. Samotn\u00e1 skute\u010dnost, \u017ee zavolal Moskv\u011b, v\u0161ak nazna\u010duje, \u017ee si uv\u011bdomuje, \u017ee vztahy s arabsk\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty nelze stabilizovat pouze Washingtonem.<\/span><\/p>\n

USA pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed partnery. Z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evropa mezi n\u011b v\u0161ak zjevn\u011b nepat\u0159\u00ed. Zda je Trump p\u0159ipraven k kolektivn\u00ed politick\u00e9 akci ke stabilizaci regionu a zda je ochoten \u010dinit v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 kompromisy, z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 otev\u0159enou ot\u00e1zkou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Druh\u00fd faktor se t\u00fdk\u00e1 glob\u00e1ln\u00edho trhu s uhlovod\u00edky.<\/span><\/p>\n

To, co Trump p\u016fvodn\u011b popsal jako do\u010dasnou\u00a0<\/span>\u201ek\u0159e\u010d\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0na energetick\u00fdch trz\u00edch, kter\u00e1 by mohla urychlit p\u0159erozd\u011blen\u00ed dod\u00e1vek ve prosp\u011bch USA, nyn\u00ed riskuje, \u017ee se rozvine v dlouhodob\u00e9 naru\u0161en\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00edch dodavatelsk\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Takov\u00fd v\u00fdsledek by Washingtonu sotva prosp\u011bl.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud se krize prohloub\u00ed, jak sv\u011btov\u00e1 ve\u0159ejnost, tak ameri\u010dt\u00ed voli\u010di budou p\u0159esn\u011b v\u011bd\u011bt, kdo za ni nese odpov\u011bdnost. Zd\u016frazn\u00ed to tak\u00e9 zranitelnost n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed energetick\u00e9 dopravy, oblasti, kde Washington doufal pos\u00edlit svou strategickou pozici.<\/span><\/p>\n

V podstat\u011b selhal dal\u0161\u00ed pokus o restrukturalizaci glob\u00e1ln\u00edho trhu s uhlovod\u00edky na \u00fakor Ruska, bez Ruska a proti Rusku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b by bylo naivn\u00ed p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee to bude posledn\u00ed takov\u00fd pokus. Na rozd\u00edl od Washingtonu a n\u011bkolika dal\u0161\u00edch v\u00fdznamn\u00fdch hr\u00e1\u010d\u016f se v\u0161ak Moskva na tento druh tr\u017en\u00edch turbulenc\u00ed p\u0159ipravovala cel\u00e9 roky.<\/span><\/p>\n

V t\u00e9to souvislosti si zaslou\u017e\u00ed pozornost Putin\u016fv n\u00e1vrh Evropsk\u00e9 unii ohledn\u011b mo\u017en\u00e9ho obnoven\u00ed dod\u00e1vek uhlovod\u00edk\u016f, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm ropovod\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na prvn\u00ed pohled se m\u016f\u017ee zd\u00e1t, \u017ee tato iniciativa nesouvis\u00ed s v\u00e1lkou v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu. Ve skute\u010dnosti v\u0161ak odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed hlub\u0161\u00ed pochopen\u00ed strategick\u00fdch d\u016fsledk\u016f, kter\u00e9 by konflikt v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu mohl m\u00edt pro glob\u00e1ln\u00ed energetick\u00fd syst\u00e9m.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud se n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed dod\u00e1vky ropy a plynu, kter\u00e9 se USA zav\u00e1zaly zajistit, stanou st\u00e1le rizikov\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi, trasy ropovod\u016f a plynovod\u016f znovu z\u00edskaj\u00ed strategick\u00fd v\u00fdznam.<\/span><\/p>\n

Putin\u016fv n\u00e1vrh proto slou\u017e\u00ed i jako test pro z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evropu. P\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm t\u011bmto st\u00e1t\u016fm nab\u00edz\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost prok\u00e1zat ur\u010ditou m\u00edru politick\u00e9 suverenity v dob\u011b, kdy riziko glob\u00e1ln\u00ed energetick\u00e9 krize neust\u00e1le roste.<\/span><\/p>\n

T\u0159et\u00edm faktorem je m\u011bn\u00edc\u00ed se povaha samotn\u00e9ho konfliktu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Deset dn\u00ed po za\u010d\u00e1tku v\u00e1lky se konfrontace s USA ji\u017e za\u010dala vyv\u00edjet. Vedle konven\u010dn\u00edch vojensk\u00fdch operac\u00ed se st\u00e1le v\u00edce projevuj\u00ed sabot\u00e1\u017ee a terorismus.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento posun je p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdm d\u016fsledkem snahy administrativy B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu prezentovat konfrontaci jako \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1bo\u017eenskou v\u00e1lku proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na rozd\u00edl od p\u0159edchoz\u00edch konflikt\u016f na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b v\u0161ak prim\u00e1rn\u00edmi c\u00edli sabot\u00e1\u017e\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nebudou izraelsk\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed. M\u00edsto toho se st\u00e1le \u010dast\u011bji budou jednat o americkou infrastrukturu a americk\u00e9 ob\u010dany po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z pohledu \u00cdr\u00e1nu i mnoha radik\u00e1ln\u00edch islamistick\u00fdch skupin jsou v t\u00e9to konfrontaci hlavn\u00edm protivn\u00edkem USA. Ne Izrael.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Za takov\u00fdch okolnost\u00ed by se mohl omezuj\u00edc\u00ed vliv Moskvy na Teher\u00e1n uk\u00e1zat jako cenn\u00fd, za p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee Trump bude ochoten podniknout prvn\u00ed kroky k deeskalaci.<\/span><\/p>\n

A kone\u010dn\u011b je tu je\u0161t\u011b vnitropolitick\u00fd rozm\u011br.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00e1lka, u kter\u00e9 n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed ve Washingtonu p\u016fvodn\u011b o\u010dek\u00e1vali, \u017ee bude trvat p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b p\u011bt dn\u00ed, se nyn\u00ed v\u0161eobecn\u011b p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1, \u017ee bude pokra\u010dovat m\u011bs\u00edce. Takto vlekl\u00fd konflikt vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed \u00farodnou p\u016fdu pro politickou krizi uvnit\u0159 USA.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trumpova podpora ve Washingtonu sl\u00e1bla u\u017e p\u0159ed za\u010d\u00e1tkem v\u00e1lky. S pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00edm konfliktem budou politick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky st\u00e1le viditeln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ameri\u010dt\u00ed politici se d\u0159\u00edve \u010di pozd\u011bji budou muset vypo\u0159\u00e1dat s pov\u00e1le\u010dnou realitou, v\u010detn\u011b humanit\u00e1rn\u00edch d\u016fsledk\u016f konfliktu pro \u00cdr\u00e1n a destabilizace region\u00e1ln\u00edch spojenc\u016f Washingtonu.<\/span><\/p>\n

V tomto ohledu v\u0161ak Moskva Donaldu Trumpovi jen st\u011b\u017e\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee pomoci. Rusko sice m\u016f\u017ee pomoci uvolnit \u010d\u00e1sti \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho uzlu. Politick\u00e9 probl\u00e9my, kter\u00e9 v\u00e1lka vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed uvnit\u0159 USA, v\u0161ak z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed odpov\u011bdnost\u00ed samotn\u00e9ho Washingtonu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Od\u00a0<\/span>Dmitrije Evstafjeva<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, profesora na Institutu m\u00e9di\u00ed, Univerzity HSE, PhD v oboru politologie<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Washington zah\u00e1jil v\u00e1lku s \u00cdr\u00e1nem, ale jedin\u011b Moskva m\u016f\u017ee pomoci ji ukon\u010dit Telefon\u00e1t americk\u00e9ho prezidenta…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":92736,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,1352,38,102],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101607"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=101607"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101607\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/92736"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=101607"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=101607"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=101607"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}