{"id":101517,"date":"2026-03-10T05:13:23","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T04:13:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=101517"},"modified":"2026-03-10T05:13:23","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T04:13:23","slug":"trump-kvuli-katastrofickemu-pondelnimu-otviraku-na-burzach-s-ropou-volal-vecer-vladimiru-putinovi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/03\/10\/trump-kvuli-katastrofickemu-pondelnimu-otviraku-na-burzach-s-ropou-volal-vecer-vladimiru-putinovi\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump kv\u016fli katastrofick\u00e9mu pond\u011bln\u00edmu otv\u00edr\u00e1ku na burz\u00e1ch s ropou volal ve\u010der Vladimiru Putinovi&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<h4>Trump kv\u016fli katastrofick\u00e9mu pond\u011bln\u00edmu otv\u00edr\u00e1ku na burz\u00e1ch s ropou volal ve\u010der Vladimiru Putinovi a podle Jurije U\u0161akova se \u0159e\u0161il hlavn\u011b vz\u00e1jemn\u00fd business, ropa, \u00cdr\u00e1n a okrajov\u011b Ukrajina a Venezuela! Podle analytik\u016f Trump zab\u0159edl do konfliktu s \u00cdr\u00e1nem, kter\u00fd m\u011bl skon\u010dit rychle, ale nam\u00edsto toho se v\u00e1lka prodlu\u017euje a nav\u00edc vybuchl mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed obchod s ropou! Anal\u00fdza dopad\u016f ropn\u00e9 krize nazna\u010duje masakr!<\/h4>\n<p>V\u0161eobecn\u011b se o\u010dek\u00e1valo, \u017ee pond\u011bln\u00ed otev\u0159en\u00ed ropn\u00fdch burz bude masakr a ropn\u00e1 krvav\u00e1 l\u00e1ze\u0148 na spotov\u00fdch cen\u00e1ch a je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce na futures cen\u00e1ch opc\u00ed, ale \u017ee to bude a\u017e tak hrozn\u00e9, to nikdo ne\u010dekal. Diskontn\u00ed rusk\u00e1 ropa Urals vyst\u0159elila na chv\u00edli na 100 dolar\u016f za barel a Brent se dostal nad 118 USD za barel, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e cena pozd\u011bji klesla.<\/p>\n<p>A to pot\u00e9, kdy\u017e Trump p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee c\u00edle operace jsou ji\u017e skoro spln\u011bny, \u017ee\u00a0<strong>\u00cdr\u00e1n pr\u00fd ji\u017e nem\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 zbran\u011b, lod\u011b, letadla, rakety, a \u017ee americk\u00e1 operace proto podle Trumpa spln\u00ed sv\u00e9 c\u00edle d\u0159\u00edve, ne\u017e se o\u010dek\u00e1valo<\/strong>. Na tyto informace, kdy\u017e si odmysl\u00edme ty bl\u00e1boly o tom, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1nu do\u0161ly zbran\u011b a z\u016fstaly mu jen kameny a klacky, reagovaly trhy poklesem cen ropy v z\u00e1v\u011bru obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed jako sign\u00e1l, \u017ee v\u00e1lka m\u016f\u017ee brzy skon\u010dit.\u00a0Jen\u017ee, situace je podle v\u0161eho mnohem dramati\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, proto\u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n si za\u010dal kl\u00e1st podm\u00ednky pro ukon\u010den\u00ed sv\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f na Izrael a na spojence USA a Izraele v regionu.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div id=\"rumble_v74p7w6\">\n<div id=\"vid_v74p7w6\" class=\"rumble_v74p7w6-Rumble-cls\" tabindex=\"-1\">\n<div><div class='videoWrapper'>\r\n\t            <iframe src='https:\/\/rumble.com\/embed\/pj.v74p7w6\/' frameborder='0' allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\r\n\t        <\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u00cdr\u00e1n po\u017eaduje, aby celkem 9 arabsk\u00fdch zem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed USA prov\u00e1d\u011bt \u00fatoky a \u00cdr\u00e1n, p\u0159estaly USA poskytovat sv\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed, vzdu\u0161n\u00fd prostor a v\u00fdsostn\u00e9 vody, a rovn\u011b\u017e je nezbytn\u00e9, aby americk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny, kter\u00e9 se na \u00fazem\u00edch t\u011bchto arabsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f nach\u00e1z\u00ed, p\u0159estaly prov\u00e1d\u011bt \u00fatoky na \u00cdr\u00e1n. Probl\u00e9m je v tom, \u017ee n\u011bkter\u00e9 tyto zem\u011b, jako nap\u0159. Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie, poskytuj\u00ed pomoc k \u00fatok\u016fm na \u00cdr\u00e1n nejen Ameri\u010dan\u016fm, ale i Izraelc\u016fm.<\/p>\n<h3>Trump\u016fv telefon\u00e1t de facto prozradil jeho prohru ve v\u00e1lce s \u00cdr\u00e1nem<\/h3>\n<p>Situace je tak v pozici, \u017ee kdy\u017e Izrael nebude cht\u00edt \u00fatoky zastavit, tak USA budou muset v operaci pokra\u010dovat.\u00a0<strong>A proto musel Trump narychlo v pond\u011bl\u00ed ve\u010der volat Putinovi.<\/strong>\u00a0Rusk\u00fd prezident Vladimir Putin tak vedl v pond\u011bl\u00ed telefonick\u00fd rozhovor se sv\u00fdm americk\u00fdm prot\u011bj\u0161kem Donaldem Trumpem, sd\u011blil novin\u00e1\u0159\u016fm poradce Kremlu Jurij U\u0161akov. Americk\u00fd prezident inicioval hovor, aby projednal nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed ud\u00e1losti, uvedl.<\/p>\n<p>Podle poradce se rozhovor zam\u011b\u0159il na konflikt v \u00cdr\u00e1nu a trojstrann\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed mezi Moskvou, Washingtonem a Kyjevem zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e1 na urovn\u00e1n\u00ed konfliktu na Ukrajin\u011b. Dialog mezi ob\u011bma prezidenty byl \u201e<em>v\u011bcn\u00fd, otev\u0159en\u00fd a konstruktivn\u00ed<\/em>\u201c, uvedl U\u0161akov a dodal, \u017ee oba l\u00edd\u0159i vyj\u00e1d\u0159ili ochotu pokra\u010dovat v pravideln\u00fdch kontaktech. Putin a Trump spolu hovo\u0159ili asi hodinu, uvedl.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_64443\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"width: 692px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/YuriUshakovKremlin.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-64443 \" src=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/YuriUshakovKremlin-1024x682.jpg\" sizes=\"(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/YuriUshakovKremlin-1024x682.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/YuriUshakovKremlin-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/YuriUshakovKremlin-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/YuriUshakovKremlin-700x466.jpg 700w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/YuriUshakovKremlin-536x357.jpg 536w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/YuriUshakovKremlin-725x483.jpg 725w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/YuriUshakovKremlin.jpg 1280w\" alt=\"\" width=\"692\" height=\"461\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Jurij U\u0161akov, poradce Vladimira Putina<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Americk\u00fd prezident znovu potvrdil z\u00e1jem Washingtonu na ukon\u010den\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed mezi Moskvou a Kyjevem a dosa\u017een\u00ed dlouhodob\u00e9ho urovn\u00e1n\u00ed konfliktu na Ukrajin\u011b. Putin podle U\u0161akova pod\u011bkoval Trumpovi za pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed zprost\u0159edkovatelsk\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed jeho administrativy. Putin tak\u00e9 sd\u00edlel sv\u00e9 n\u00e1zory na prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed konflikt v \u00cdr\u00e1nu a informoval Trumpa o sv\u00fdch rozhovorech s p\u0159edstaviteli zem\u00ed Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu a \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm prezidentem Masoudem Pezeshkianem, kter\u00e9 vedl minul\u00fd t\u00fdden. Trump na opl\u00e1tku vyj\u00e1d\u0159il sv\u016fj n\u00e1zor na situaci, uvedl U\u0161akov a dodal, \u017ee o t\u00e9to ot\u00e1zce vedli velmi podstatnou diskusi.<\/p>\n<h3>Trump volal podle analytik\u016f kv\u016fli jedin\u00e9 hlavn\u00ed v\u011bci \u2013 rusk\u00e9 rop\u011b!<\/h3>\n<p>Naposledy spolu oba prezidenti telefonicky hovo\u0159ili v prosinci. B\u00edl\u00fd d\u016fm to tehdy ozna\u010dil za pozitivn\u00ed. V pond\u011bl\u00ed Putin varoval, \u017ee pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed konflikt na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b m\u016f\u017ee v\u00e1\u017en\u011b naru\u0161it glob\u00e1ln\u00ed dod\u00e1vky ropy a zemn\u00edho plynu, zejm\u00e9na vzhledem k faktick\u00e9mu uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu, kter\u00fd je kl\u00ed\u010dovou n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed trasou.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Konflikt by mohl v\u00e9st k zastaven\u00ed t\u011b\u017eby ropy v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu a k \u201e<em>nov\u00e9 cenov\u00e9 realit\u011b<\/em>\u201c, uvedl na vl\u00e1dn\u00edm zased\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/strong>\u00a0Moskva z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 \u201e<em>spolehliv\u00fdm dodavatelem energie<\/em>\u201c, \u0159ekl prezident a dodal, \u017ee bude i nad\u00e1le dod\u00e1vat ropu a plyn zem\u00edm, kter\u00e9 pova\u017euje za spolehliv\u00e9 partnery. Moskva odsoudila bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu ze strany USA a Izraele jako \u201e<em>p\u0159edem promy\u0161len\u00fd a nevyprovokovan\u00fd akt agrese<\/em>\u201c.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_65043\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"width: 677px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/PutinOnThePhoneWH.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-65043 \" src=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/PutinOnThePhoneWH-1024x682.jpg\" sizes=\"(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/PutinOnThePhoneWH-1024x682.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/PutinOnThePhoneWH-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/PutinOnThePhoneWH-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/PutinOnThePhoneWH-700x466.jpg 700w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/PutinOnThePhoneWH-536x357.jpg 536w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/PutinOnThePhoneWH-725x483.jpg 725w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/PutinOnThePhoneWH.jpg 1280w\" alt=\"\" width=\"677\" height=\"451\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Donald Trump na telefonu. Ilustra\u010dn\u00ed foto<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Putin s\u00e1m se k cel\u00e9 operaci ve\u0159ejn\u011b nevyj\u00e1d\u0159il, ale zabit\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edho v\u016fdce ajatoll\u00e1ha Al\u00edho Chamene\u00edho ozna\u010dil za \u201e<em>cynick\u00e9 poru\u0161en\u00ed<\/em>\u201c mor\u00e1lky a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho pr\u00e1va. Jen\u017ee Trump\u016fv rozhovor nebyl publikov\u00e1n a z\u016fstal v re\u017eimu utajen\u00ed. Je jasn\u00e9, \u017ee Trump po\u017e\u00e1dal Putina, aby vrhl na sv\u011btov\u00e9 trhy v\u00edce rusk\u00e9 ropy, aby do\u0161lo ke sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed cen. A to znamen\u00e1, \u017ee konec v\u00e1lky v \u00cdr\u00e1nu, tedy n\u011bjak\u00fd brzk\u00fd konec, se ned\u00e1 o\u010dek\u00e1vat. Telefon\u00e1t Putinovi v den ropn\u00e9ho Armageddonu na burz\u00e1ch je jasn\u00fdm sign\u00e1lem, \u017ee Trump od sionistick\u00fdch z Izraele a od Chabadu nem\u00e1 dovoleno v\u00e1lku ukon\u010dit.<\/p>\n<h3>Vyd\u00edran\u00fd Trump d\u011bl\u00e1 pro izraelsk\u00e9 sionisty a Chabad tu nej\u0161pinav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pr\u00e1ci \u2013 \u00fanosy, vra\u017edy, atent\u00e1ty, terorismus, d\u011btsk\u00e9 ob\u011bti<\/h3>\n<p>Maj\u00ed na n\u011bho kompro materi\u00e1ly, jak zneu\u017e\u00edval nezletil\u00e9 hol\u010di\u010dky v 90. letech, prost\u011b Trump je te\u010f pan\u00e1\u010dek na tu nej\u0161pinav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pr\u00e1ci na sv\u011bt\u011b, pan\u00e1\u010dek na zlo\u010diny, pan\u00e1\u010dek na \u00fanosy prezident\u016f, pan\u00e1\u010dek na vra\u017edy ajatoll\u00e1h\u016f, pan\u00e1\u010dek na zapalov\u00e1n\u00ed Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu do v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9ho ohn\u011b,\u00a0<strong>prost\u011b pan\u00e1\u010dek na \u0161\u0148\u016frk\u00e1ch ovl\u00e1dan\u00fdch sionistick\u00fdmi mesianisty a jejich pansk\u00fdmi, tedy Chabadem.<\/strong>\u00a0A t\u00edm je to prost\u011b dan\u00e9 a ned\u00e1 se to odest\u00e1t. Vyd\u00edraj\u00ed ho k t\u011bm nej\u0161pinav\u011bj\u0161\u00edm \u010din\u016fm, za kter\u00e9 by se styd\u011bl i krimin\u00e1ln\u00edk a recidivista. Zavra\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed v\u00edce ne\u017e 170 hol\u010di\u010dek v \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 d\u00edv\u010d\u00ed \u0161kole.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_62554\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"width: 695px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/TrumpChabadOval.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-62554 \" src=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/TrumpChabadOval-1024x640.jpg\" sizes=\"(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/TrumpChabadOval-1024x640.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/TrumpChabadOval-300x188.jpg 300w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/TrumpChabadOval-768x480.jpg 768w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/TrumpChabadOval-700x438.jpg 700w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/TrumpChabadOval-571x357.jpg 571w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/TrumpChabadOval-773x483.jpg 773w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/TrumpChabadOval.jpg 1280w\" alt=\"\" width=\"695\" height=\"434\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Donald Trump s \u010dleny Chabadu Lubavitch v B\u00edl\u00e9m dom\u011b, vpravo Trump\u016fv chabadistick\u00fd ze\u0165 Jared Kushner<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed odsolovac\u00edho za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed na pitnou vodu \u00cdr\u00e1nc\u016f. Tohle je rukopis izraelsk\u00fdch sionist\u016f, pravideln\u011b takhle ni\u010d\u00ed vodn\u00ed zdroje a studny na Z\u00e1padn\u00edm b\u0159ehu i v Gaze na palestinsk\u00fdch \u00fazem\u00edch, ale tady to prost\u011b nechaj\u00ed d\u011blat Trumpa v \u00cdr\u00e1nu a jeho americk\u00e9 voj\u00e1ky. Prost\u011b ta nej\u010dern\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pr\u00e1ce a sou\u010dasn\u011b nejkrvav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Pr\u00e1ce, za kterou se Trump bude sma\u017eit v pekle.<\/p>\n<p>Ale tak jest d\u00e1no, proto\u017ee zneu\u017e\u00edval hol\u010di\u010dky a te\u010f mu to pan\u0161t\u00ed spo\u010d\u00edtali, nasm\u011brovali ho rovnou do horouc\u00edch pekel. Ale ne\u017e se tam dostane, provede pro sionistick\u00e9 dareb\u00e1ky a pro jejich pansk\u00e9 z Chabadu je\u0161t\u011b moc zl\u00e9ho a moc \u0161pinav\u00e9 a krvav\u00e9 pr\u00e1ce. A cena ropy mezit\u00edm polet\u00ed do nebes. Poj\u010fme si proto ud\u011blat malou anal\u00fdzu toho, co n\u00e1s \u010dek\u00e1.<\/p>\n<h3>Ropn\u00e1 krize 2026: v\u00e1lka proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu \u017eene Brent i Urals vzh\u016fru a otev\u00edr\u00e1 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 energetick\u00e9ho \u0161oku pro cel\u00fd sv\u011bt<\/h3>\n<p>Americko-izraelsk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu prom\u011bnila ropn\u00fd trh b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika dn\u016f z relativn\u011b komfortn\u00edho trhu s o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fdm p\u0159ebytkem nab\u00eddky v nerv\u00f3zn\u00ed, rozkmitan\u00fd a geopoliticky p\u0159ep\u00e1len\u00fd syst\u00e9m, kter\u00fd za\u010dal do cen okam\u017eit\u011b prom\u00edtat nejen riziko v\u00fdpadku \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch barel\u016f, ale p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm riziko kolapsu cel\u00e9 logistick\u00e9 p\u00e1te\u0159e Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu. Ropa Brent se po eskalaci konfliktu vy\u0161vihla na nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b od roku 2022 a b\u011bhem pond\u011bln\u00edho obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed 9. b\u0159ezna vyst\u0159elila a\u017e nad 119 dolar\u016f za barel, ne\u017e \u010d\u00e1st zisk\u016f odevzdala.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Reuters uvedl, \u017ee v intradenn\u00edm maximu \u0161lo o skok a\u017e o 29 %, zat\u00edmco na z\u00e1v\u011br dne Brent uzav\u00edral pobl\u00ed\u017e 98,96 USD za barel<\/strong>. U\u017e p\u0159edt\u00edm 6. b\u0159ezna Brent futures uzav\u0159ely na 92,69 USD a t\u00fddenn\u00ed r\u016fst dos\u00e1hl p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 27 %\u00a0<strong>[<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/href.li\/?https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/oil-soars-25-gold-drops-iran-war-jolts-global-commodity-markets-2026-03-09\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>1<\/strong><\/a><strong>]<\/strong>\u00a0<strong>[<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/href.li\/?https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/us-oil-prices-jump-supply-fears-amid-expanding-us-israeli-war-with-iran-2026-03-08\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>2<\/strong><\/a><strong>]<\/strong>\u00a0<strong>[<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/href.li\/?https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/oil-falls-us-may-intervene-futures-market-issues-waiver-russian-purchases-2026-03-06\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>3<\/strong><\/a><strong>]<\/strong>. Tohle nen\u00ed b\u011b\u017en\u00e1 tr\u017en\u00ed epizoda. J\u00e1dro probl\u00e9mu nele\u017e\u00ed jen v tom, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n je v\u00fdznamn\u00fd producent. J\u00e1dro probl\u00e9mu spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v tom, \u017ee bojov\u00e1 z\u00f3na se rozprost\u0159ela p\u0159\u00edmo nad oblast, p\u0159es ni\u017e proud\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st sv\u011btov\u00e9 ropy a LNG.<\/p>\n<p>Americk\u00e1 EIA uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem v roce 2024 proch\u00e1zelo v pr\u016fm\u011bru 20 milion\u016f barel\u016f denn\u011b, tedy asi 20 % sv\u011btov\u00e9 spot\u0159eby kapaln\u00fdch paliv a v\u00edce ne\u017e \u010dtvrtina celkov\u00e9ho sv\u011btov\u00e9ho n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edho obchodu s ropou. Alternativn\u00edch exportn\u00edch tras je jen m\u00e1lo a jejich kapacita zdaleka nesta\u010d\u00ed na plnou n\u00e1hradu\u00a0<strong>[<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/href.li\/?https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/detail.php?id=65504\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>4<\/strong><\/a><strong>]<\/strong>. Jestli\u017ee tedy trh dnes neoce\u0148uje pouze \u00edr\u00e1nskou produkci, ale bezpe\u010dnost Hormuzu jako takov\u00e9ho, pak necen\u00ed jeden st\u00e1t, ale tepnu cel\u00e9ho glob\u00e1ln\u00edho energetick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu.<\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"4\">\n<h4>Tabulka 1: Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 cenov\u00e9 body a tr\u017en\u00ed sign\u00e1ly po eskalaci v\u00e1lky s \u00cdr\u00e1nem<\/h4>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Ukazatel<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>Hodnota<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>Datum \/ kontext<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>Zdroj<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Brent intradenn\u00ed maximum<\/td>\n<td>V\u00edce ne\u017e 119 USD\/barel<\/td>\n<td>9. b\u0159ezna 2026, vrchol paniky<\/td>\n<td><strong>[<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/href.li\/?https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/commodities\/governments-scramble-limit-fallout-iran-war-oil-prices-surge-2026-03-09\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>5<\/strong><\/a><strong>]<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Brent settlement<\/td>\n<td>98,96 USD\/barel<\/td>\n<td>9. b\u0159ezna 2026, po \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e9m v\u00fddechu trhu<\/td>\n<td><strong>[<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/href.li\/?https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/us-oil-prices-jump-supply-fears-amid-expanding-us-israeli-war-with-iran-2026-03-08\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>6<\/strong><\/a><strong>]<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Brent settlement<\/td>\n<td>92,69 USD\/barel<\/td>\n<td>6. b\u0159ezna 2026<\/td>\n<td><strong>[<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/href.li\/?https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/oil-falls-us-may-intervene-futures-market-issues-waiver-russian-purchases-2026-03-06\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>7<\/strong><\/a><strong>]<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Urals FOB Primorsk<\/td>\n<td>68,6 USD\/barel<\/td>\n<td>6. b\u0159ezna 2026, r\u016fst z 45,7 USD<\/td>\n<td><strong>[<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/href.li\/?https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/russian-urals-oil-price-tops-brent-first-time-indian-market-traders-say-2026-03-06\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>8<\/strong><\/a><strong>]<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Urals delivered do Indie<\/td>\n<td>Pr\u00e9miov\u011b +4 a\u017e +5 USD k Brent<\/td>\n<td>b\u0159ezen \/ za\u010d\u00e1tek dubna 2026<\/td>\n<td><strong>[<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/href.li\/?https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/russian-urals-oil-price-tops-brent-first-time-indian-market-traders-say-2026-03-06\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>9<\/strong><\/a><strong>]<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Front vs. 6M Brent spread<\/td>\n<td>Cca 10 USD backwardation<\/td>\n<td>6. b\u0159ezna 2026, nejstrm\u011bj\u0161\u00ed od roku 2022<\/td>\n<td><strong>[<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/href.li\/?https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/oil-derivatives-signal-traders-see-middle-east-shock-short-lived-2026-03-06\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>10<\/strong><\/a><strong>]<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Pr\u00e1v\u011b futures k\u0159ivka prozradila, co se na trhu skute\u010dn\u011b odehr\u00e1v\u00e1. Reuters popsal, \u017ee spread mezi front-month Brentem a kontraktem o \u0161est m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f d\u00e1le se rozev\u0159el na zhruba 10 dolar\u016f za barel, co\u017e je nejstrm\u011bj\u0161\u00ed backwardation od po\u010d\u00e1tku rusko-ukrajinsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky v roce 2022\u00a0<strong>[<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/href.li\/?https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/oil-derivatives-signal-traders-see-middle-east-shock-short-lived-2026-03-06\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>11<\/strong><\/a><strong>]<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Tato struktura znamen\u00e1 jedin\u00e9: trh ne\u0159e\u0161\u00ed abstraktn\u00ed budoucnost, ale akutn\u00ed nedostatek fyzick\u00fdch barel\u016f tady a te\u010f. Zadn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st k\u0159ivky z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 relativn\u011b n\u00ed\u017ee, tak\u017ee finan\u010dn\u00ed sektor zat\u00edm neoce\u0148uje trvalou struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed zm\u011bnu, n\u00fdbr\u017e brut\u00e1ln\u00ed logistick\u00fd \u0161ok v p\u0159edn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti trhu. V p\u0159ekladu: ropa m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt ve sv\u011bt\u011b pap\u00edrov\u011b dost, ale nen\u00ed jist\u00e9, zda se v\u010das dostane tam, kam m\u00e1.<\/p>\n<h3>Hormuz je kl\u00ed\u010dem k cen\u011b ropy, i kter\u00e1 v\u016fbec Hormuzem neproplouv\u00e1<\/h3>\n<p>A pr\u00e1v\u011b logistick\u00e1 str\u00e1nka krize je podce\u0148ovan\u00fdm dynamitem. Reuters uvedl, \u017ee sazby za pron\u00e1jem tanker\u016f VLCC z Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu do \u010c\u00edny vysko\u010dily z p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 120 tis\u00edc dolar\u016f denn\u011b na v\u00edce ne\u017e 450 tis\u00edc dolar\u016f denn\u011b\u00a0<strong>[<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/href.li\/?https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/commodities\/charting-widening-impact-iran-crisis-energy-markets-2026-03-05\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>12<\/strong><\/a><strong>]<\/strong>. To je naprosto z\u00e1sadn\u00ed.\u00a0<strong>Cena suroviny toti\u017e neroste pouze kv\u016fli samotn\u00e9mu barelu, ale i kv\u016fli p\u0159eprav\u011b, poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed, v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9mu riziku, \u010dasov\u00fdm ztr\u00e1t\u00e1m a zadr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed plavidel.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Na energetick\u00e9m trhu se tak rod\u00ed dvojit\u00fd \u0161ok: zdra\u017euje komodita i jej\u00ed doprava z\u00e1rove\u0148. Kdy\u017e se k tomu p\u0159ipoj\u00ed \u00fatoky na rafinerie, p\u0159ekladi\u0161t\u011b, termin\u00e1ly nebo LNG za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, trh dostane infla\u010dn\u00ed impuls nikoli v jednom bod\u011b \u0159et\u011bzce, ale v ka\u017ed\u00e9m jeho \u010dl\u00e1nku.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_63234\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"width: 708px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/TrumpChabadMeeting.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-63234 \" src=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/TrumpChabadMeeting-1024x536.jpg\" sizes=\"(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/TrumpChabadMeeting-1024x536.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/TrumpChabadMeeting-300x157.jpg 300w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/TrumpChabadMeeting-768x402.jpg 768w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/TrumpChabadMeeting-700x366.jpg 700w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/TrumpChabadMeeting-682x357.jpg 682w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/TrumpChabadMeeting-923x483.jpg 923w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/TrumpChabadMeeting.jpg 1280w\" alt=\"\" width=\"708\" height=\"370\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Trump s \u010dleny Chabadu v \u201c<em>ohelu<\/em>\u201d (<em>stanu<\/em>) u hrobu Menachem Mendel Schneersona v New Yorku, 7. \u0159\u00edjna 2024<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Dal\u0161\u00ed rozm\u011br krize p\u0159edstavuje OPEC+. Reuters 1. b\u0159ezna napsal, \u017ee kartel sice odsouhlasil nav\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed t\u011b\u017eby o 206 tis\u00edc barel\u016f denn\u011b pro duben, analytici ale sou\u010dasn\u011b upozor\u0148ovali, \u017ee skupina m\u00e1 jen omezenou volnou kapacitu a \u017ee bez obnoven\u00ed norm\u00e1ln\u00ed plavby v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu stejn\u011b nebude snadn\u00e9 dodat nov\u00e9 barely na trh\u00a0<strong>[<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/href.li\/?https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/opec-debates-oil-output-boost-us-war-iran-disrupts-shipments-2026-03-01\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>13<\/strong><\/a><strong>]<\/strong>. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, \u010d\u00edslo 206 tis\u00edc bpd vypad\u00e1 na pap\u00ed\u0159e jako uklid\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed sign\u00e1l, ve skute\u010dnosti ale proti riziku zablokov\u00e1n\u00ed 20 milion\u016f bpd v Hormuzu p\u016fsob\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 sm\u011b\u0161n\u011b. Nen\u00ed to odpov\u011b\u010f na syst\u00e9movou krizi, ale symbolick\u00fd pokus p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit trh, \u017ee n\u011bkdo dr\u017e\u00ed ruce na volantu.<\/p>\n<h3>Rusov\u00e9 vyhr\u00e1li po zap\u00e1len\u00ed Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu Trumpov\u00fdm v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdm ohn\u011bm de facto jackpot<\/h3>\n<p>Zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed kapitolou je rusk\u00e1 ropa Urals. Pr\u00e1v\u011b sou\u010dasn\u00e1 v\u00e1lka j\u00ed otev\u0159ela cestu k ne\u010dekan\u00e9mu cenov\u00e9mu zhodnocen\u00ed. Reuters 6. b\u0159ezna uvedl, \u017ee Urals se p\u0159i dod\u00e1n\u00ed do indick\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edstav\u016f za\u010dal obchodovat poprv\u00e9 v historii s pr\u00e9mi\u00ed 4 a\u017e 5 dolar\u016f k Brent, zat\u00edmco cena FOB v Primorsku vysko\u010dila na 68,6 USD za barel z 45,7 USD, tedy o zhruba 50 % b\u011bhem t\u00fddne\u00a0<strong>[<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/href.li\/?https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/russian-urals-oil-price-tops-brent-first-time-indian-market-traders-say-2026-03-06\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>14<\/strong><\/a><strong>]<\/strong>. To je zcela mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00fd jev. Urals b\u00fdval po sankc\u00edch diskontn\u00ed grade, nyn\u00ed se ale v Asii do\u010dasn\u011b prom\u011bnil v \u201e<em>bezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed<\/em>\u201c alternativu k bl\u00edzkov\u00fdchodn\u00edm barel\u016fm.<\/p>\n<p>Z geopolitick\u00e9ho hlediska je to ironie t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 brut\u00e1ln\u00ed: v\u00e1lka deklarovan\u011b veden\u00e1 ve jm\u00e9nu bezpe\u010dnosti a stability okam\u017eit\u011b zvedla hodnotu rusk\u00e9ho exportu a pos\u00edlila ropn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edjem Moskvy. Je v\u0161ak t\u0159eba p\u0159esn\u011b rozli\u0161ovat, co se mysl\u00ed cenou Urals.\u00a0<strong>Na trhu dnes vedle sebe existuj\u00ed minim\u00e1ln\u011b t\u0159i relevantn\u00ed optiky: cena FOB v rusk\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edstavu, delivered cena v indick\u00e9m portu a referen\u010dn\u00ed srovn\u00e1n\u00ed v\u016f\u010di dated Brent.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Kdy\u017e n\u011bkdo tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee Urals \u201ep\u0159ekonal Brent\u201c, zpravidla mluv\u00ed o dod\u00e1vce do Indie po zapo\u010dten\u00ed logistick\u00fdch a pojistn\u00fdch n\u00e1klad\u016f, nikoli o jednoduch\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9m spotov\u00e9m srovn\u00e1n\u00ed na stejn\u00e9m m\u00edst\u011b a ve stejn\u00e9m \u010dase. P\u0159esto je faktick\u00fd z\u00e1v\u011br stejn\u00fd: asijsk\u00fd trh je v panice ochoten platit za ruskou ropu pr\u00e9mii, kterou by je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed p\u00e1r t\u00fddny pova\u017eoval za nep\u0159edstavitelnou\u00a0<strong>[<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/href.li\/?https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/russian-urals-oil-price-tops-brent-first-time-indian-market-traders-say-2026-03-06\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>15<\/strong><\/a><strong>]<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"4\">\n<h4>Tabulka 2: Co \u017eene ropu vzh\u016fru rychleji ne\u017e samotn\u00e9 bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/h4>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Faktor<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>Mechanismus<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>Dopad<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>Zdroj<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Riziko Hormuzu<\/td>\n<td>Ohro\u017een\u00ed tranzitu asi 20 mil. bpd<\/td>\n<td>Geopolitick\u00e1 pr\u00e9mie v cen\u011b ropy a plynu<\/td>\n<td><strong>[<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/href.li\/?https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/detail.php?id=65504\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>16<\/strong><\/a><strong>]<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Backwardation<\/td>\n<td>Front-month siln\u011b nad del\u0161\u00edmi splatnostmi<\/td>\n<td>Sign\u00e1l akutn\u00edho nedostatku fyzick\u00e9 ropy<\/td>\n<td><strong>[<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/href.li\/?https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/oil-derivatives-signal-traders-see-middle-east-shock-short-lived-2026-03-06\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>17<\/strong><\/a><strong>]<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Tankerov\u00e9 sazby<\/td>\n<td>VLCC Middle East\u2013China 120k \u2192 450k USD\/den<\/td>\n<td>Zdra\u017een\u00ed p\u0159epravy a fin\u00e1ln\u00edch paliv<\/td>\n<td><strong>[<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/href.li\/?https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/commodities\/charting-widening-impact-iran-crisis-energy-markets-2026-03-05\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>18<\/strong><\/a><strong>]<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Omezen\u00e1\u00a0<em>spare capacity<\/em>\u00a0OPEC+<\/td>\n<td>Pap\u00edrov\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed t\u011b\u017eby nar\u00e1\u017e\u00ed na exportn\u00ed realitu<\/td>\n<td>Omezen\u00e1 schopnost trh rychle uklidnit<\/td>\n<td><strong>[<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/href.li\/?https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/opec-debates-oil-output-boost-us-war-iran-disrupts-shipments-2026-03-01\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>19<\/strong><\/a><strong>]<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>R\u016fst popt\u00e1vky po alternativn\u00edch gradech<\/td>\n<td>Asie lov\u00ed barely mimo Persk\u00fd z\u00e1liv<\/td>\n<td>Urals zdra\u017euje rychleji ne\u017e Brent<\/td>\n<td><strong>[<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/href.li\/?https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/russian-urals-oil-price-tops-brent-first-time-indian-market-traders-say-2026-03-06\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>20<\/strong><\/a><strong>]<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h3>Ropa se m\u016f\u017ee dlouhodob\u011b stabilizovat, ale na cen\u011b okolo 100 USD, co\u017e povede k likvidaci ekonomik v EU a podle situace i v USA<\/h3>\n<p>Do t\u00e9to explozivn\u00ed situace vstupuje je\u0161t\u011b jeden paradox. Je\u0161t\u011b v \u00fanoru IEA o\u010dek\u00e1vala, \u017ee sv\u011btov\u00e1 nab\u00eddka ropy v roce 2026 vzroste na 108,6 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b, zat\u00edmco popt\u00e1vka poroste pomaleji, jen o 850 tis\u00edc barel\u016f denn\u011b. EIA sou\u010dasn\u011b ve sv\u00e9m short-term outlook p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dala, \u017ee v pr\u016fb\u011bhu roku 2026 budou glob\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1soby sp\u00ed\u0161e nar\u016fstat a ceny by v z\u00e1kladn\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i m\u011bly b\u011bhem roku klesat.<\/p>\n<p>A v roce 2027 m\u011bly z\u016fstat pod 60 dolary za barel\u00a0<strong>[<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/href.li\/?https:\/\/www.iea.org\/reports\/oil-market-report-february-2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>21<\/strong><\/a><strong>]<\/strong>\u00a0<strong>[<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/href.li\/?https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/outlooks\/steo\/report\/global_oil.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>22<\/strong><\/a><strong>]<\/strong>. Tedy je\u0161t\u011b ned\u00e1vno dominoval makrop\u0159\u00edb\u011bh o p\u0159ebytku. V\u00e1lka tento p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh nep\u0159epsala t\u00edm, \u017ee by najednou zm\u011bnila geologii, ale t\u00edm, \u017ee vyhodila do vzduchu distribuci. To je kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9. Sv\u011bt m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt pap\u00edrov\u00fd p\u0159ebytek, ale p\u0159esto trp\u011bt cenov\u00fdm \u0161okem, pokud ztrat\u00ed jistotu dopravy a zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0<strong>Doprava je toti\u017e stejn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 jako samotn\u00e1 surovina. Nen\u00ed doprava, nen\u00ed surovina.<\/strong>\u00a0To je tvrd\u00e1 realita.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_26061\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"width: 840px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/putin-trump-zionism-chabad.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-26061 \" src=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/putin-trump-zionism-chabad.jpg\" sizes=\"(max-width: 842px) 100vw, 842px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/putin-trump-zionism-chabad.jpg 842w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/putin-trump-zionism-chabad-300x144.jpg 300w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/putin-trump-zionism-chabad-768x368.jpg 768w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/putin-trump-zionism-chabad-700x336.jpg 700w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/putin-trump-zionism-chabad-744x357.jpg 744w\" alt=\"\" width=\"840\" height=\"403\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Vladimir Putin s vrchn\u00edm rusk\u00fdm rab\u00ednem a chabadistou Berelem Lazarem<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>V\u00fdhled cen je proto extr\u00e9mn\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00fd na d\u00e9lce konfliktu a stavu Hormuzu. V m\u011bk\u010d\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i, kdy bude tranzit sice drah\u00fd a rizikov\u00fd, ale pr\u016fliv z\u016fstane form\u00e1ln\u011b otev\u0159en\u00fd a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed eskorty postupn\u011b obnov\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st toku, m\u016f\u017ee Brent po prvn\u00edm \u0161oku stabilizovat v p\u00e1smu p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 90 a\u017e 110 dolar\u016f. To by byl st\u00e1le tvrd\u00fd infla\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1sah, ale ne je\u0161t\u011b plnohodnotn\u00fd ropn\u00fd Armagedon.<\/p>\n<p>Reuters 4. b\u0159ezna citoval Goldman Sachs, kter\u00fd zvedl pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd odhad Brentu pro druh\u00e9 \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed 2026 o 10 dolar\u016f na 76 USD, zat\u00edmco ANZ zv\u00fd\u0161ila sv\u016fj pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd odhad pro prvn\u00ed \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed 2026 na 90 USD. Tyto odhady v\u0161ak vznikaly je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed pond\u011bln\u00edm cenov\u00fdm v\u00fdst\u0159elem nad 119 USD a p\u0159ed dal\u0161\u00edm zhor\u0161en\u00edm situace v regionu, tak\u017ee dnes p\u016fsob\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161 jako spodn\u00ed mantinel ne\u017e skute\u010dn\u00e1 kotva\u00a0<strong>[<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/href.li\/?https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/oil-seen-elevated-hormuz-risks-intensify-amid-iran-conflict-analysts-say-2026-03-04\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>23<\/strong><\/a><strong>]<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<h3>Trump se m\u016f\u017ee necht\u011bn\u011b st\u00e1t autorem nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 likvida\u010dn\u00ed recese, jakou planeta poznala<\/h3>\n<p>Tvrd\u0161\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 s vleklou v\u00e1lkou, \u010dast\u00fdmi \u00fatoky na tankery a exportn\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed a s dlouhodob\u00fdm ucp\u00e1n\u00edm z\u00e1livu, i kdy\u017e ne \u00fapln\u00fdm uzav\u0159en\u00edm. V takov\u00e9m prost\u0159ed\u00ed by Brent snadno mohl dr\u017eet oblast 110 a\u017e 130 dolar\u016f za barel po t\u00fddny \u010di m\u011bs\u00edce. Ne\u0161lo by u\u017e o jednor\u00e1zov\u00fd \u0161ok, ale o nov\u00fd cenov\u00fd re\u017eim. Energeticky z\u00e1visl\u00e1 Evropa by \u010delila druhotn\u00e9mu \u00faderu p\u0159es plyn a rafinovan\u00e9 produkty.<\/p>\n<p>Reuters u\u017e 5. b\u0159ezna psal, \u017ee bl\u00edzk\u00e9 evropsk\u00e9 futures na plyn vysko\u010dily zhruba o 70% po v\u00fdpadc\u00edch v Kataru\u00a0<strong>[<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/href.li\/?https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/commodities\/charting-widening-impact-iran-crisis-energy-markets-2026-03-05\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>24<\/strong><\/a><strong>]<\/strong>.\u00a0<strong>Jakmile vedle ropy za\u010dne znovu explodovat i plyn, dost\u00e1v\u00e1 pr\u016fmysl, logistika i dom\u00e1cnosti dvojit\u00fd z\u00e1sah, kter\u00fd m\u016f\u017ee rychle p\u0159er\u016fst v recesn\u00ed tlak.<\/strong>\u00a0Krizov\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, kter\u00e9ho se trh d\u011bs\u00ed nejv\u00edce, je de facto blok\u00e1da Hormuzu. Nemus\u00ed j\u00edt ani o pr\u00e1vn\u011b vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00e9 uzav\u0159en\u00ed. Sta\u010d\u00ed, aby poji\u0161\u0165ovny odm\u00edtly kr\u00fdt plavbu kv\u016fli vysok\u00e9mu riziku, rejda\u0159i st\u00e1hli lod\u011b a vojensk\u00e9 riziko bylo tak vysok\u00e9, \u017ee se tankerov\u00fd provoz zhrout\u00ed s\u00e1m.<\/p>\n<p>JPMorgan podle Reuters upozornila, \u017ee p\u0159i d\u00e9le uzav\u0159en\u00e9m Hormuzu by mohly b\u00fdt b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika dn\u016f odstaveny v\u00fdvozy z Ir\u00e1ku a Kuvajtu a v\u00fdpadek nab\u00eddky by mohl dos\u00e1hnout a\u017e 4,7 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b\u00a0<strong>[<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/href.li\/?https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/oil-seen-elevated-hormuz-risks-intensify-amid-iran-conflict-analysts-say-2026-03-04\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>25<\/strong><\/a><strong>]<\/strong>. A to st\u00e1le nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt kone\u010dn\u00e9 \u010d\u00edslo, proto\u017ee sekund\u00e1rn\u00ed \u0161kody by dopadly i na Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bii, Katar, Bahrajn a nav\u00e1zan\u00fd petrochemick\u00fd sektor. V takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by cena 130 dolar\u016f nebyla stropem, ale mezip\u0159ist\u00e1n\u00edm.<\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"4\">\n<h4>Tabulka 3: Sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e dal\u0161\u00edho v\u00fdvoje ropn\u00e9 krize<\/h4>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>Pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fd Brent<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>Hlavn\u00ed znaky<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>D\u016fsledky<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1. Omezen\u00e1 eskalace<\/td>\n<td>90\u2013110 USD<\/td>\n<td>Hormuz funguje omezen\u011b, plavba drah\u00e1, ale b\u011b\u017e\u00ed<\/td>\n<td>Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed inflace, dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed paliva, nervozita na trz\u00edch<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2. Dlouh\u00e1 region\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lka<\/td>\n<td>110\u2013130 USD<\/td>\n<td>Opakovan\u00e9 \u00fatoky, trvale drah\u00e1 p\u0159eprava, poruchy exportu<\/td>\n<td>Stagfla\u010dn\u00ed tlak, z\u00e1sah do pr\u016fmyslu a leteck\u00e9 dopravy<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>3. Faktick\u00e1 blok\u00e1da Hormuzu<\/td>\n<td>130 USD a v\u00fd\u0161e<\/td>\n<td>Kolaps poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed a tankerov\u00e9 dopravy, tvrd\u00e9 v\u00fdpadky exportu<\/td>\n<td>Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed energetick\u00fd \u0161ok, nouzov\u00e9 z\u00e1sahy st\u00e1t\u016f, recesn\u00ed riziko<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>St\u00e1ty u\u017e zjevn\u011b c\u00edt\u00ed, \u017ee trh s\u00e1m situaci nezvl\u00e1dne. Reuters 9. b\u0159ezna uvedl, \u017ee Washington zva\u017euje koordinovan\u00fd prodej ropy z americk\u00e9 Strategick\u00e9 ropn\u00e9 rezervy a jedn\u00e1 o spole\u010dn\u00e9m postupu se zem\u011bmi G7. Americk\u00e1 SPR podle t\u00e9ho\u017e zdroje dr\u017e\u00ed asi 415 milion\u016f barel\u016f\u00a0<strong>[<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/href.li\/?https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/us-considering-selling-oil-strategic-reserve-us-energy-chief-says-2026-03-09\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>26<\/strong><\/a><strong>]<\/strong>\u00a0<strong>[<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/href.li\/?https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/trump-reviews-options-curb-energy-prices-iran-strikes-roil-markets-2026-03-09\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>27<\/strong><\/a><strong>]<\/strong>. Takov\u00fd krok m\u016f\u017ee kr\u00e1tkodob\u011b zchladit paniku a ubrat n\u011bkolik dolar\u016f z ceny. Ne\u0159e\u0161\u00ed ale z\u00e1kladn\u00ed probl\u00e9m: rezervy dok\u00e1\u017eou suplovat barely, nedok\u00e1\u017eou odblokovat pr\u016fliv, zlevnit v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed ani garantovat bezpe\u010dn\u00fd tankerov\u00fd koridor. SPR je n\u00e1plast, nikoli chirurgick\u00fd z\u00e1krok.<\/p>\n<h3>Cenovkou za rozpout\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00e1lky s \u00cdr\u00e1nem bude masivn\u00ed infla\u010dn\u00ed spir\u00e1la<\/h3>\n<p>Ekonomick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky t\u00e9to krize mohou b\u00fdt brut\u00e1ln\u00ed. Ropa zdra\u017euje dopravu, zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed, chemii, plasty, hnojiva i v\u00fdrobu elekt\u0159iny v zem\u00edch, kter\u00e9 st\u00e1le v\u00fdznamn\u011b spaluj\u00ed ropn\u00e9 produkty. P\u0159es sekund\u00e1rn\u00ed efekt dra\u017e\u0161\u00edch paliv se zdra\u017euj\u00ed potraviny, n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed doprava i letenky.<\/p>\n<p>Reuters u\u017e upozor\u0148uje, \u017ee trhy znovu p\u0159ehodnocuj\u00ed v\u00fdhled \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb a infla\u010dn\u00edho v\u00fdvoje, proto\u017ee drah\u00e1 energie zvy\u0161uje pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky nebudou moci tak rychle uvol\u0148ovat m\u011bnovou politiku\u00a0<strong>[<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/href.li\/?https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/oil-soars-25-gold-drops-iran-war-jolts-global-commodity-markets-2026-03-09\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>28<\/strong><\/a><strong>]<\/strong>. Pokud se v\u00e1lka rozleje d\u00e1l, m\u016f\u017ee se z ropn\u00e9 krize velmi rychle st\u00e1t krize m\u011bnov\u00e1, dluhopisov\u00e1 a pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 z\u00e1rove\u0148. A to je prost\u011b dal\u0161\u00ed realita.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_62552\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"width: 702px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/ZelenskyChabadMeeting.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-62552 \" src=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/ZelenskyChabadMeeting-1024x641.jpg\" sizes=\"(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/ZelenskyChabadMeeting-1024x641.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/ZelenskyChabadMeeting-300x188.jpg 300w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/ZelenskyChabadMeeting-768x481.jpg 768w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/ZelenskyChabadMeeting-700x438.jpg 700w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/ZelenskyChabadMeeting-570x357.jpg 570w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/ZelenskyChabadMeeting-772x483.jpg 772w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/ZelenskyChabadMeeting.jpg 1280w\" alt=\"\" width=\"702\" height=\"439\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Volodymyr Zelensk\u00fd se \u010dleny Chabadu Lubavitch v roce 2019 kr\u00e1tce po sv\u00e9m zvolen\u00ed do funkce prezidenta Ukrajiny<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Celkov\u00fd obraz je tedy temn\u00fd. Je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed p\u00e1r t\u00fddny byly hlavn\u00edm slovem trhu \u201ep\u0159ebytek\u201c, dnes je j\u00edm \u201ezranitelnost\u201c. Je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed p\u00e1r t\u00fddny se \u0159e\u0161ilo, kam a\u017e ropa letos spadne, dnes se \u0159e\u0161\u00ed, zda se v\u016fbec dostane p\u0159es Hormuz. Brent reaguje jako glob\u00e1ln\u00ed krizov\u00fd benchmark, Urals jako nouzov\u00e1 n\u00e1hra\u017eka pro asijsk\u00e9 odb\u011bratele a futures k\u0159ivka k\u0159i\u010d\u00ed, \u017ee fyzick\u00fd trh dostal r\u00e1nu do solaru. Pokud by se poda\u0159ilo konflikt rychle utlumit, z\u016fstane po n\u011bm i tak vysok\u00e1 geopolitick\u00e1 pr\u00e9mie a dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed energie.\u00a0<em>Spekulanti v\u0161ech zem\u00ed, spojte se!<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Jestli ale v\u00e1lka p\u0159eroste do dlouh\u00e9 bitvy o exportn\u00ed tepny Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu, sv\u011bt nevstoup\u00ed jen do dal\u0161\u00ed epizody volatility.\u00a0<strong>Vstoup\u00ed do nov\u00e9 ropn\u00e9 krize se v\u0161emi klasick\u00fdmi pr\u016fvodn\u00edmi jevy: inflac\u00ed, stagflac\u00ed, p\u0159erozd\u011blen\u00edm geopolitick\u00e9 moci a \u0161okov\u00fdm zchudnut\u00edm energeticky z\u00e1visl\u00fdch ekonomik<\/strong>, s v\u00fdjimkou t\u011bch, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed bohat\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed fosiln\u00ed zdroje, jmenovit\u011b Rusko. A jmenovit\u011b jeho majitel\u00e9 \u2013 Chabad Lubavitch. Kontroluj\u00ed Trumpa. Kontroluj\u00ed Putina. Kontroluj\u00ed Zelensk\u00e9ho. Kontroluj\u00ed Bibiho. A hlavn\u011b\u2026 kontroluj\u00ed \u00fapln\u011b v\u0161echny v\u00e1lky a speci\u00e1ln\u00ed i nespeci\u00e1ln\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 operace, kter\u00e9 tito prezidenti vedou. A t\u00edm je to dan\u00e9!<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/trump-kvuli-katastrofickemu-pondelnimu-otviraku-na-burzach-s-ropou-volal-vecer-vladimiru-putinovi-a-podle-jurije-usakova-se-resil-hlavne-vzajemny-business-ropa-iran-a-okrajove-ukrajina-a-venezuela\/\">-VK-<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trump kv\u016fli katastrofick\u00e9mu pond\u011bln\u00edmu otv\u00edr\u00e1ku na burz\u00e1ch s ropou volal ve\u010der Vladimiru Putinovi a podle&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":101518,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,102,310,404,5519,452,92],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101517"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=101517"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101517\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":101519,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101517\/revisions\/101519"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/101518"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=101517"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=101517"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=101517"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}