{"id":101370,"date":"2026-03-09T00:13:47","date_gmt":"2026-03-08T23:13:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=101370"},"modified":"2026-03-08T14:54:25","modified_gmt":"2026-03-08T13:54:25","slug":"ivan-david-odstartuje-valka-proti-iranu-velkou-hospodarskou-krizi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/03\/09\/ivan-david-odstartuje-valka-proti-iranu-velkou-hospodarskou-krizi\/","title":{"rendered":"Ivan David: Odstartuje v\u00e1lka proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu velkou hospod\u00e1\u0159skou krizi?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Jak by se v\u00e1lka v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu mohla prom\u00edtnout do americk\u00e9 ekonomiky<\/h3>\n

Rostouc\u00ed ceny energi\u00ed, naru\u0161en\u00e9 dodavatelsk\u00e9 \u0159et\u011bzce a\u00a0vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00ed dluh by mohly po\u0161kodit americk\u00e9 spot\u0159ebitele.<\/p>\n

A<\/strong>nal\u00fdza Od Lydie DePillis pro NYT:<\/strong><\/h4>\n

T\u0159i druhy ud\u00e1lost\u00ed historicky dotla\u010dily Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty do recese: finan\u010dn\u00ed krize, ropn\u00e9 \u0161oky a\u00a0pandemie.<\/p>\n

\u00datoky USA a\u00a0Izraele na \u00cdr\u00e1n ji\u017e zp\u016fsobily druhou okolnost na tomto seznamu a\u00a0pokud se v\u011bci vyvinou \u0161patn\u011b, potenci\u00e1ln\u011b i\u00a0prvn\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Hodn\u011b bude z\u00e1le\u017eet na tom, jak dlouho bude konflikt trvat a\u00a0jak z\u00e1va\u017en\u00fd z\u016fstane. Dopad se zv\u00fd\u0161il, proto\u017ee \u00fatoky se roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ily za hranice \u00cdr\u00e1nu, paralyzovaly leti\u0161t\u011b a\u00a0po\u0161kozovaly pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed po\u00a0cel\u00e9m Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b. Pokud v\u00a0p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm t\u00fddnu dojde k\u00a0p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, obchodn\u00ed toky by se mohly pom\u011brn\u011b rychle vr\u00e1tit do norm\u00e1lu.<\/p>\n

Pokud v\u0161ak bomby budou padat dal\u0161\u00ed t\u00fddny nebo m\u011bs\u00edce \u2013 jak prezident Trump p\u0159edznamenal \u2013 ekonomick\u00e1 z\u00e1t\u011b\u017e by se mohla st\u00e1t mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed a\u00a0n\u00e1klady pro americk\u00e9 da\u0148ov\u00e9 poplatn\u00edky mnohem vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed. Zde jsou hlavn\u00ed kan\u00e1ly, kter\u00fdmi mohou Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 poc\u00edtit dopady.<\/p>\n

\u0160krcen\u00ed dod\u00e1vek ropy<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Ve dnech po\u00a0za\u010d\u00e1tku v\u00e1lky p\u0159estaly tankery vplouvat do Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu, kter\u00fd \u00cdr\u00e1n kontroluje a\u00a0kudy se p\u0159epravuje 20 procent sv\u011btov\u00e9 ropy. Podle Lloyd\u2019s\u00a0List uv\u00edzlo v\u00a0oblasti Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu asi 200 lod\u00ed a\u00a0ceny za p\u0159epravu ropy prudce vzrostly. Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed sa\u00fadskoarabsk\u00e1 ropn\u00e1 rafinerie a\u00a0nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed katarsk\u00e9 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed na export zkapaln\u011bn\u00e9ho zemn\u00edho plynu byly po\u00a0\u00fatoc\u00edch dron\u016f uzav\u0159eny.<\/p>\n

Ceny ropy prudce vzrostly a\u00a0od za\u010d\u00e1tku boj\u016f vzrostly p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o\u00a015 procent, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed referen\u010dn\u00ed hodnota ropy se pohybuje kolem 83 dolar\u016f za barel. Ceny nafty vzrostly v\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011bru na v\u00edce ne\u017e 4 dolary za galon, co\u017e je nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 od konce roku 2023, uv\u00e1d\u00ed AAA. Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 cena benzinu vysko\u010dila na 3,25 dolaru za galon z\u00a02,99 dolaru minul\u00fd t\u00fdden, uv\u00e1d\u00ed GasBuddy. I\u00a0kdy\u017e boje ustanou, ceny ropy z\u016fstanou po\u00a0zbytek roku zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9, odhaduje Goldman Sachs, a\u00a0pokud z\u016fstane pr\u016fliv uzav\u0159en\u00fd n\u011bkolik t\u00fddn\u016f, mohly by dos\u00e1hnout 100 dolar\u016f za barel. (U\u017e dos\u00e1hl, pozn. p\u0159ekl.)<\/p>\n

Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b se nejedn\u00e1 o 70. l\u00e9ta 20. stolet\u00ed, kdy nepokoje na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b vedly k nedostatku pohonn\u00fdch hmot, kter\u00fd vyst\u0159elil do nebes inflaci a vytvo\u0159il fronty na \u010derpac\u00edch stanic\u00edch. Americk\u00e1 ekonomika se stala m\u00e9n\u011b z\u00e1vislou na rop\u011b i d\u00edky boomu b\u0159idlicov\u00e9ho plynu, kter\u00fd ze Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f ud\u011blal \u010dist\u00e9ho v\u00fdvozce energie. N\u011bkter\u00e9 americk\u00e9 plyn\u00e1rensk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti se ji\u017e sna\u017e\u00ed vyu\u017e\u00edt vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch cen.<\/p>\n

O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee inflace poroste, co\u017e sni\u017euje pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed rezervn\u00ed syst\u00e9m v\u00a0nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby. Jako obvykle jsou men\u0161\u00ed podniky v\u00edce vystaveny volatiln\u00edm cen\u00e1m, proto\u017ee si nemohou dovolit dlouhodob\u00e9 smlouvy ani finan\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1stroje, kter\u00e9 by je chr\u00e1nily p\u0159ed v\u00fdkyvy.<\/p>\n

\u201eJak\u00fdkoli druh pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9ho podniku se bude muset chr\u00e1nit p\u0159ed ve\u0161kerou svou energetickou expozic\u00ed,\u201c \u0159ekl Chris Hodge, hlavn\u00ed americk\u00fd ekonom spole\u010dnosti Natixis Corporate & Investment Banking. \u201eN\u00e1klady na zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed se trochu zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed, ale pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b to nebude br\u00e1nit \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdm pl\u00e1n\u016fm kapit\u00e1lov\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u016f.\u201c<\/p>\n

Tot\u00e9\u017e plat\u00ed pro spot\u0159ebitele: Lid\u00e9 s\u00a0n\u00edzk\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00edjmy maj\u00ed tendenci utr\u00e1cet vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed pod\u00edl sv\u00fdch v\u00fdd\u011blk\u016f za benz\u00edn. S\u00a0rostouc\u00edmi cenami za galon lid\u00e9 omezuj\u00ed jin\u00e9 priority. Nezb\u00fdv\u00e1 mnoho rezerv proto\u017ee m\u00edra osobn\u00edch \u00faspor je na nejni\u017e\u0161\u00edm bod\u011b za v\u00edce ne\u017e t\u0159i roky a\u00a0m\u00edra prodlen\u00ed se spl\u00e1cen\u00edm kreditn\u00edch karet a\u00a0leasing\u016f stoup\u00e1 na \u00farovn\u011b, jak\u00e9 nebyly zaznamen\u00e1ny od velk\u00e9 recese.<\/p>\n

Nejv\u00edce jsou ohro\u017eeni maloobchodn\u00edci a\u00a0restaurace, kter\u00e9 obsluhuj\u00ed z\u00e1kazn\u00edky s\u00a0n\u00edzk\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00edjmy, a\u00a0spot\u0159ebitel\u00e9 na p\u0159edm\u011bst\u00edch, kte\u0159\u00ed mus\u00ed v\u0161ude doj\u00ed\u017ed\u011bt autem, uvedl Michael Gunther, senior viceprezident pro v\u00fdzkum ve spole\u010dnosti Consumer Edge, kter\u00e1 se zab\u00fdv\u00e1 daty o\u00a0kreditn\u00edch kart\u00e1ch. O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee se rozd\u00edl ve v\u00fddaj\u00edch mezi lidmi s\u00a0n\u00edzk\u00fdmi a\u00a0vysok\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00edjmy zv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed, jako tomu bylo v\u00a0roce 2022, kdy inflace p\u0159ekro\u010dila 9 procent.<\/p>\n

\u201eKdy\u017e dojde k\u00a0obecn\u00e9mu infla\u010dn\u00edmu \u0161oku a\u00a0ceny benz\u00ednu tehdy tak\u00e9 v\u00fdrazn\u011b vzrostly, tento rozd\u00edl se skute\u010dn\u011b projev\u00ed,\u201c \u0159ekl pan Gunther. \u201eNen\u00ed to tak, \u017ee by v\u00fddaje prudce klesly, ale rozhodn\u011b se oproti d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161ku oslabily.\u201c<\/p>\n

Obchodn\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv nen\u00ed pro zbo\u017e\u00ed krom\u011b ropy nezbytnou trasou. A\u00a0a\u010dkoli je nyn\u00ed plavba cel\u00fdm regionem rizikov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, obchod se v\u00a0posledn\u00edch n\u011bkolika letech kv\u016fli riziku \u00fatok\u016f H\u00fat\u00ed\u016f p\u0159esunul od bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho Suezsk\u00e9ho pr\u016fplavu, co\u017e omezilo bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed nev\u00fdhodu.<\/p>\n

P\u0159esto by se podm\u00ednky mohly zlep\u0161it, neb\u00fdt vypuknut\u00ed nov\u00fdch nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch akc\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\u201eSp\u00ed\u0161e, ne\u017e by urychlil odklon\u011bn\u00ed kontejnerov\u00e9 dopravy, posune konflikt p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm pl\u00e1ny, kter\u00e9 musely p\u0159epravn\u00ed spole\u010dnosti v tomto roce vr\u00e1tit na obchodn\u00ed trasu Suezsk\u00e9ho pr\u016fplavu,\u201c napsal Simon MacAdam, z\u00e1stupce hlavn\u00edho glob\u00e1ln\u00edho ekonoma spole\u010dnosti Capital Economics, ve st\u0159ede\u010dn\u00ed pozn\u00e1mce.<\/p>\n

Nejistota ohledn\u011b toho, zda se v\u00e1lka prohloub\u00ed a\u00a0zda naru\u0161en\u00ed p\u0159etrv\u00e1, panuje tak\u00e9 v\u00a0dob\u011b, kdy americk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti vyr\u00e1b\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed spot\u0159ebn\u00ed zbo\u017e\u00ed u\u017e nakupuj\u00ed suroviny s\u00a0ohledem na v\u00e1no\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1kupn\u00ed sez\u00f3nu. Krom\u011b celn\u00ed mapy, kter\u00e1 se znovu zm\u011bnila, kdy\u017e Trump sp\u011bchal s\u00a0nahrazen\u00edm cel zru\u0161en\u00fdch Nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edm soudem, v\u00e1lka je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce zatem\u0148uje rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed dovozc\u016f.<\/p>\n

Zpravodajsk\u00e9 p\u0159ehledy<\/div>\n

\u201ePr\u00e1v\u011b te\u010f se nach\u00e1z\u00edme v\u00a0tom mal\u00e9m okn\u011b, kdy jak\u00fdkoli v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed dopad m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt v\u00fdznamn\u00fd dopad na spot\u0159ebitelskou sv\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed sez\u00f3nu pozd\u011bji v\u00a0roce,\u201c \u0159ekl David Warrick, v\u00fdkonn\u00fd viceprezident spole\u010dnosti Overhaul, kter\u00e1 pom\u00e1h\u00e1 klient\u016fm \u0159\u00eddit dodavatelsk\u00e9 \u0159et\u011bzce.<\/p>\n

Riziko za rizikem<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Nikdy nen\u00ed ide\u00e1ln\u00ed \u010das na zah\u00e1jen\u00ed v\u00e1lky s\u00a0otev\u0159en\u00fdm koncem. V\u00a0tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b jsou Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty ji\u017e nyn\u00ed zat\u00ed\u017eeny vysok\u00fdm dluhem, jejich ekonomika se stala siln\u011b z\u00e1vislou na jednom sektoru a\u00a0akciov\u00e9m trhu, kter\u00fd se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt nadhodnocen\u00fd.<\/p>\n

Navzdory n\u011bkolika let\u016fm zdrav\u00e9ho r\u016fstu a\u00a0n\u00edzk\u00e9 nezam\u011bstnanosti udr\u017eely hlubok\u00e9 da\u0148ov\u00e9 \u0161krty a\u00a0vysok\u00e9 v\u00fddaje b\u011bhem pandemie feder\u00e1ln\u00ed dluh jako pod\u00edl hrub\u00e9ho dom\u00e1c\u00edho produktu na historick\u00fdch maximech. Vysok\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby explodovaly o\u00a0to, co stoj\u00ed obsluha t\u011bchto vyp\u016fj\u010den\u00fdch pen\u011bz. Investo\u0159i po\u00a0za\u010d\u00e1tku \u00fatok\u016f prodali americk\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy, m\u00edsto aby se k\u00a0nim hrnuli, jak to obvykle d\u011blaj\u00ed v\u00a0dob\u00e1ch glob\u00e1ln\u00ed nestability.<\/p>\n

\u201eCizinci za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed pochybovat o\u00a0tom, zda jsme spolehliv\u00fdm dlu\u017en\u00edkem,\u201c \u0159ekl Desmond Lachman, rezidentn\u00ed pracovn\u00edk Americk\u00e9ho podnikatelsk\u00e9ho institutu. \u201ePosledn\u00ed v\u011bc, kterou pot\u0159ebujete, je vojensk\u00e1 akce, kter\u00e1 si pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b vy\u017e\u00e1d\u00e1 vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fddaje na obranu.\u201c<\/p>\n

Hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd r\u016fst byl mezit\u00edm ne\u00fam\u011brn\u011b poh\u00e1n\u011bn investicemi do datov\u00fdch center slou\u017e\u00edc\u00edch um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligenci a\u00a0komplexn\u00edho vybaven\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se do nich vkl\u00e1d\u00e1 \u2013 z\u00a0\u010deho\u017e velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st je p\u0159epravov\u00e1na z\u00a0Asie po\u00a0nov\u011b nebezpe\u010dn\u00fdch a\u00a0drah\u00fdch obchodn\u00edch tras\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n

Pokud investo\u0159i ztrat\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bru ve schopnost hrstky technologick\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed plnit sv\u00e9 sliby, mohly by akciov\u00e9 trhy, kter\u00e9 se siln\u011b soust\u0159edily na jejich akcie, utrp\u011bt r\u00e1nu. Vzhledem k\u00a0tomu, \u017ee lid\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed si u\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed v\u00fdhod tohoto akciov\u00e9ho boomu, ji\u017e m\u011bs\u00edce podporuj\u00ed spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 v\u00fddaje, mohl by prudk\u00fd pokles rychle v\u00e9st k\u00a0propou\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\u201eKdy\u017e to v\u0161echno d\u00e1te dohromady, existuje riziko, \u017ee by to mohlo vyvolat spoustu probl\u00e9m\u016f,\u201c \u0159ekl Lachman.*<\/p>\n

K autorce:\u00a0Lydia DePillis<\/strong>\u00a0p\u00ed\u0161e o\u00a0americk\u00e9 ekonomice pro The Times. Je novin\u00e1\u0159kou od roku 2009 a\u00a0je k\u00a0dispozici na adrese\u00a0lydia.depillis@nytimes.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Ivan David<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 europoslanec za SPD,\u00a0Facebook (Meta) 7.3.2026<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jak by se v\u00e1lka v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu mohla prom\u00edtnout do americk\u00e9 ekonomiky Rostouc\u00ed ceny energi\u00ed,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":92269,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,59,371,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101370"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=101370"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101370\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/92269"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=101370"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=101370"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=101370"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}