{"id":101241,"date":"2026-03-07T05:48:22","date_gmt":"2026-03-07T04:48:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=101241"},"modified":"2026-03-07T06:07:44","modified_gmt":"2026-03-07T05:07:44","slug":"kdo-pro-usa-napadne-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/03\/07\/kdo-pro-usa-napadne-iran\/","title":{"rendered":"Kdo pro USA napadne \u00cdr\u00e1n?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Pokud sel\u017ee leteck\u00e1 s\u00edla, Washington bude pot\u0159ebovat arm\u00e1du n\u011bkoho jin\u00e9ho<\/h3>\n

Prvn\u00ed t\u00fdden vojensk\u00e9 operace v \u00cdr\u00e1nu se ch\u00fdl\u00ed ke konci a jedna v\u011bc je ji\u017e jasn\u00e1: USA se nepoda\u0159ilo zasadit \u00cdr\u00e1nu drtivou r\u00e1nu a zopakovat \u201evenezuelsk\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u201c.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Washington a z\u00e1padn\u00ed Jeruzal\u00e9m si zjevn\u011b uv\u011bdomily, \u017ee zm\u011bna re\u017eimu v \u00cdr\u00e1nu je nemo\u017en\u00e1 bez pozemn\u00ed invaze, a hledaj\u00ed kandid\u00e1ty, kte\u0159\u00ed by ji provedli.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Kurdov\u00e9 v Ir\u00e1ku a \u00cdr\u00e1nu<\/span><\/h2>\n

Kurdov\u00e9 jsou etnickou skupinou bez st\u00e1tn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161nosti. Po rozpadu Osmansk\u00e9 \u0159\u00ed\u0161e se roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ili po Turecku, S\u00fdrii, \u00cdr\u00e1nu a Ir\u00e1ku, kde tvo\u0159\u00ed pron\u00e1sledovanou men\u0161inu. Pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed boj Kurd\u016f za nez\u00e1vislost byl \u010dasto zneu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n extern\u00edmi hr\u00e1\u010di, kte\u0159\u00ed jim slibovali st\u00e1tnost, ale zradili je, kdy\u017e jejich slu\u017eby ji\u017e nebyly pot\u0159eba.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejbl\u00ed\u017ee k dosa\u017een\u00ed nez\u00e1vislosti byli ir\u00e1\u010dt\u00ed Kurdov\u00e9. Po v\u00e1lce v Ir\u00e1ku upevnili kontrolu nad severn\u00edm Ir\u00e1kem. Maj\u00ed skromnou ekonomiku a co je nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, vlastn\u00ed milici, Pe\u0161mergu. Kurdsk\u00e9 komunity existuj\u00ed i \u200b\u200bna \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch hranic\u00edch. D\u00edky tomu jsou Pe\u0161mergy nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm kandid\u00e1tem na vojenskou slu\u017ebu v \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

V oblastech \u00cdr\u00e1nu a Ir\u00e1ku ob\u00fdvan\u00fdch Kurdy roste nap\u011bt\u00ed. Zpr\u00e1vy nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n zah\u00e1jil preventivn\u00ed \u00fadery proti kurdsk\u00fdm t\u00e1bor\u016fm pobl\u00ed\u017e Arb\u00edlu v Ir\u00e1ku, zat\u00edmco izraelsk\u00e9 n\u00e1lety m\u00ed\u0159ily na Bukan, kurdsk\u00e9 m\u011bsto na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 stran\u011b hranice.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u010derej\u0161\u00ed zpr\u00e1va o ofenz\u00edv\u011b pe\u0161merg\u016f z ir\u00e1ck\u00e9ho Kurdist\u00e1nu do \u00cdr\u00e1nu se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt fale\u0161n\u00e1, ale podobn\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b budou n\u00e1sledovat. S kurdskou milic\u00ed jsou v\u0161ak dva kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 probl\u00e9my. Zaprv\u00e9, i kdy\u017e m\u00e1 pe\u0161merga pom\u011brn\u011b velkou s\u00edlu (12 prapor\u016f o 3 000\u20135 000 voj\u00e1kech a zna\u010dn\u00fd po\u010det podp\u016frn\u00e9ho person\u00e1lu), je heterogenn\u00ed milice, kter\u00e1 m\u00e1 jako t\u011b\u017ekou v\u00fdzbroj jen hrstku zastaral\u00fdch sov\u011btsk\u00fdch tank\u016f. I kdyby je \u00edr\u00e1n\u0161t\u00ed Kurdov\u00e9 p\u0159iv\u00edtali s otev\u0159enou n\u00e1ru\u010d\u00ed, je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by se mohli dostat za hranice \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch kurdsk\u00fdch oblast\u00ed. Proto je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by jak\u00e1koli potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed kurdsk\u00e1 ofenz\u00edva v \u0161irok\u00e9m m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku usp\u011bla.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Druh\u00fdm probl\u00e9mem je, \u017ee pokud se ir\u00e1\u010dt\u00ed Kurdov\u00e9 zapoj\u00ed do boj\u016f v \u00cdr\u00e1nu, riskuj\u00ed \u00fatok ze strany ir\u00e1ck\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil, s nimi\u017e maj\u00ed napjat\u00fd vztah a proti nim\u017e byla jejich milice p\u016fvodn\u011b vytvo\u0159ena.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00c1zerbajd\u017e\u00e1n<\/span><\/h2>\n

\u010ctvrte\u010dn\u00ed r\u00e1no za\u010dalo zpr\u00e1vami o \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9m dronu, kter\u00fd zas\u00e1hl leti\u0161t\u011b v \u00e1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00e9m Nachi\u010devanu. Stejn\u011b jako \u00fadajn\u00e1 \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 raketa odp\u00e1len\u00e1 sm\u011brem k tureck\u00e9mu vzdu\u0161n\u00e9mu prostoru se t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jist\u011b jedn\u00e1 o izraelskou provokaci.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Argumentace je podobn\u00e1 jako v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Kurd\u016f: jeliko\u017e v severn\u00edm \u00cdr\u00e1nu \u017eije v\u00fdznamn\u00e1 etnick\u00e1 \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00e1 populace, mohlo by to \u00e1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho prezidenta Ilhama Alijeva l\u00e1kat k obsazen\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed a \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti Kaspick\u00e9ho mo\u0159e.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 zapojen\u00ed do v\u00e1lky by v\u0161ak pro \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n p\u0159edstavovalo nep\u0159ijateln\u00e1 rizika. Ropa je hlavn\u00edm zdrojem p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu a hlavn\u00ed regiony produkuj\u00edc\u00ed ropu v zemi le\u017e\u00ed v Kaspick\u00e9m mo\u0159i, co\u017e je \u010din\u00ed zraniteln\u00fdmi v\u016f\u010di \u00fatok\u016fm \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch dron\u016f. Nanejv\u00fd\u0161 m\u016f\u017eeme o\u010dek\u00e1vat lok\u00e1ln\u00ed operace pod\u00e9l hranice zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 na zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed kontroly nad pozemn\u00edm koridorem do Nachi\u010devanu, \u00e1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00e9 exkl\u00e1vy odd\u011blen\u00e9 od zbytku zem\u011b Arm\u00e9ni\u00ed a \u00cdr\u00e1nem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ostatn\u00ed hr\u00e1\u010di<\/span><\/h2>\n

P\u00e1kist\u00e1n se tak\u00e9 drav\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem d\u00edv\u00e1 na \u00cdr\u00e1n, a to navzdory ofici\u00e1ln\u00edm slib\u016fm, \u017ee se do konfliktu nezapoj\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Teoreticky by se do konfliktu mohly zapojit i arabsk\u00e9 n\u00e1rody, ale prozat\u00edm v\u00e1haj\u00ed s \u00fatokem na \u00cdr\u00e1n. Kurdov\u00e9 budou pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nejaktivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed skupinou, zat\u00edmco \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n, P\u00e1kist\u00e1n a arabsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu budou \u010dekat na svou p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost a \u010dekat, a\u017e USA a Izrael \u201eza\u017eenou bestii do kouta\u201c leteck\u00fdmi \u00fadery, aby se na ni pozd\u011bji mohly vrhnout.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nal\u00e9havou ot\u00e1zkou je, zda tento pl\u00e1n bude fungovat. A\u010dkoli USA a Izrael dok\u00e1\u017eou v\u00e9st leteckou kampa\u0148 pom\u011brn\u011b dlouho, kritick\u00fdm probl\u00e9mem je znovuotev\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu, kter\u00e9 obnov\u00ed provoz ropn\u00e9ho a plyn\u00e1rensk\u00e9ho sektoru v regionu. Pokud se USA a Izraeli poda\u0159\u00ed jej znovu otev\u0159\u00edt b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika t\u00fddn\u016f (neutralizac\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch raketov\u00fdch a bezpilotn\u00edch odpalovac\u00edch m\u00edst), \u00cdr\u00e1n ztrat\u00ed sv\u016fj hlavn\u00ed vliv. Znovuotev\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu by pro Teher\u00e1n znamenalo v\u00fdznamnou strategickou por\u00e1\u017eku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1stupn\u00e9 s\u00edly<\/span><\/h2>\n

Zem\u011b jako Rusko a \u010c\u00edna by mohly potenci\u00e1ln\u011b zas\u00e1hnout a pomoci \u00cdr\u00e1nu. \u010c\u00edna by mohla poskytnout finan\u010dn\u00ed zdroje a do ur\u010dit\u00e9 m\u00edry i vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1soby, zat\u00edmco Rusko by mohlo slou\u017eit jako logistick\u00e1 podp\u016frn\u00e1 z\u00e1kladna a nab\u00eddnout pokro\u010dil\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 znalosti a dodate\u010dnou v\u00fdzbroj.<\/span><\/p>\n

V tomto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i by se \u00cdr\u00e1n mohl st\u00e1t z\u00e1stupcem Ruska a \u010c\u00edny a potenci\u00e1ln\u011b by mohl slou\u017eit jako beranidlo proti USA, podobn\u011b jako Ukrajina proti Rusku. Takov\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 v\u0161ak vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 mnoho ot\u00e1zek \u2013 v prvn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b ohledn\u011b \u00cdr\u00e1nu a \u010c\u00edny.<\/span><\/p>\n

V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd n\u00e1znak, \u017ee by \u00cdr\u00e1n form\u00e1ln\u011b po\u017e\u00e1dal Rusko o vojenskou pomoc. Mluv\u010d\u00ed Kremlu Dmitrij Peskov dnes prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 takov\u00e9 \u017e\u00e1dosti nebyly vzneseny. Pokud ano, zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee budeme muset po\u010dkat, a\u017e Teher\u00e1n vybere nov\u00e9ho v\u016fdce a objasn\u00ed sv\u016fj postoj.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A p\u00e1r slov k postoji \u010c\u00edny. Aby Peking v\u00e1\u017en\u011b podpo\u0159il Teher\u00e1n, musel by p\u0159ekonat sv\u00e9 v\u00fdhrady a zvolit v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup. To s sebou nese rizika, proto\u017ee podpora \u00cdr\u00e1nu by mohla v\u00e9st k dlouhodob\u00e9mu naru\u0161en\u00ed produkce ropy v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu. To by prim\u00e1rn\u011b postihlo \u010c\u00ednu, nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edho odb\u011bratele ropy v regionu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc by vlekl\u00e1 v\u00e1lka a n\u00e1sledn\u00e1 ropn\u00e1 krize mohly v\u00e9st ke glob\u00e1ln\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 krizi, kter\u00e1 by byla pro \u010d\u00ednskou ekonomiku orientovanou na export hluboce znepokojiv\u00e1. Je tedy pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee se \u010c\u00edna p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 konfrontaci vyhne.<\/span><\/p>\n

***<\/span><\/h2>\n

Situace kolem \u00cdr\u00e1nu se vyost\u0159uje a vtahuje do d\u011bn\u00ed st\u00e1le v\u00edce akt\u00e9r\u016f. Osud konfliktu z\u00e1vis\u00ed na dvou faktorech: mohou USA a Izrael usnadnit pozemn\u00ed invazi do \u00cdr\u00e1nu prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm zprost\u0159edkovatel\u016f a mohou Rusko, \u010c\u00edna a \u00cdr\u00e1n zopakovat roli, kterou hraj\u00ed USA, Evropa a Ukrajina?<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud ano, m\u00e1 v\u00e1lka v \u00cdr\u00e1nu velkou \u0161anci st\u00e1t se druh\u00fdm velk\u00fdm konfliktem nov\u00e9 multipol\u00e1rn\u00ed \u00e9ry po Ukrajin\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Od\u00a0<\/span><\/em>\u00a0Sergeje Poletajeva<\/span><\/strong> , informa\u010dn\u00edho analytika a publicisty, spoluzakladatele a editora projektu Vatfor.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

\"Sergej<\/a><\/div>\n
\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pokud sel\u017ee leteck\u00e1 s\u00edla, Washington bude pot\u0159ebovat arm\u00e1du n\u011bkoho jin\u00e9ho Prvn\u00ed t\u00fdden vojensk\u00e9 operace v…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":101242,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,1275,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101241"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=101241"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101241\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/101242"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=101241"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=101241"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=101241"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}