{"id":101222,"date":"2026-03-07T00:32:26","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T23:32:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=101222"},"modified":"2026-03-06T15:16:21","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T14:16:21","slug":"german-gorraiz-lopez-zpusobi-trump-dalsi-krach-akcioveho-trhu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/03\/07\/german-gorraiz-lopez-zpusobi-trump-dalsi-krach-akcioveho-trhu\/","title":{"rendered":"Germ\u00e1n Gorraiz L\u00f3pez: Zp\u016fsob\u00ed Trump dal\u0161\u00ed krach akciov\u00e9ho trhu?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Pokud bude eskalace nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch akc\u00ed mezi Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty a Izraelem na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b pokra\u010dovat, \u00cdr\u00e1n by mohl uzav\u0159\u00edt Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv, kter\u00fdm proch\u00e1z\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 20 % sv\u011btov\u00e9 ropy. Cena ropy by se pak mohla vy\u0161plhat na 150 dolar\u016f, co\u017e by o\u017eivilo ropnou krizi z roku 1973 a n\u00e1sledn\u011b spustilo nov\u00fd krach akciov\u00e9ho trhu.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Mot\u00fdl\u00ed efekt a akciov\u00fd trh. Na\u0161e mysl dok\u00e1\u017ee pochopit pouze fragmenty kompletn\u00ed sekvence obrovsk\u00e9ho genomu chaosu, co\u017e n\u00e1s nevyhnuteln\u011b vede k pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdrazu \u201emot\u00fdl\u00ed efekt\u201c k pokusu o vysv\u011btlen\u00ed z\u00e1vratn\u00e9ho spojen\u00ed dost\u0159ediv\u00fdch a odst\u0159ediv\u00fdch sil, kter\u00e9 nakonec utvo\u0159\u00ed nesouvislou skl\u00e1da\u010dku syt\u00e9ho organizovan\u00e9ho chaosu. Aplikovan\u00fd na komplexn\u00ed syst\u00e9my, jako je akciov\u00fd trh, by tedy \u201emot\u00fdl\u00ed efekt\u201c znemo\u017enil jakoukoli kr\u00e1tkodobou p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pou\u017eit\u00e9 kvantov\u00e9 modely jsou ve skute\u010dnosti pouze simulacemi zalo\u017een\u00fdmi na p\u0159edchoz\u00edch modelech (teorie finan\u010dn\u00ed nestability Hymana Minskyho). V d\u016fsledku toho zahrnut\u00ed jedin\u00e9 chybn\u00e9 prom\u011bnn\u00e9 nebo n\u00e1hl\u00fd v\u00fdskyt nep\u0159edv\u00eddan\u00e9 prom\u011bnn\u00e9 (jako je konflikt na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b) zesiluje s ka\u017edou simulovanou \u010dasovou jednotkou toleranci chybovosti t\u011bchto model\u016f, a to i p\u0159es stratosf\u00e9rick\u00fd pr\u00e1h 100 %, co\u017e m\u016f\u017ee v\u00e9st k nov\u00e9mu krachu akciov\u00e9ho trhu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Iracion\u00e1ln\u00ed nad\u0161en\u00ed trh\u016f. Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 bublina je v\u00fdsledkem euforie na Wall Street a v \u0161ir\u0161\u00edm smyslu i na dal\u0161\u00edch glob\u00e1ln\u00edch akciov\u00fdch trz\u00edch, kter\u00e1 navazuje na m\u011bnovou politiku hlavn\u00edch centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank. Tyto banky zaplavily trhy stovkami miliard dolar\u016f a eur v nad\u011bji, \u017ee po krizi v roce 2008 o\u017eiv\u00ed ekonomiku. Re\u00e1ln\u00e1 mo\u017enost dal\u0161\u00edho krachu akciov\u00e9ho trhu z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161inou ratingov\u00fdch agentur, kter\u00e9 jsou odtr\u017eeny od reality, nepov\u0161imnuta. Ospravedl\u0148uj\u00ed tak iracion\u00e1ln\u00ed nad\u0161en\u00ed trh\u016f a zdiskredituj\u00ed hedgeov\u00e9 fondy, co\u017e dokonale ilustruje slavn\u00fd cit\u00e1t ikonoklastika Johna Kennetha Galbraitha: \u201eExistuj\u00ed dva druhy ekonom\u016f: ti, kte\u0159\u00ed nic nev\u011bd\u00ed, a ti, kte\u0159\u00ed nev\u011bd\u00ed ani to.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Spekulace \u017eiv\u00ed n\u00e1kupy v nad\u011bji na zna\u010dn\u00e9 budouc\u00ed zisky a vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed tak vzestupnou spir\u00e1lu odtr\u017eenou od reality. Cena aktiv dosahuje stratosf\u00e9rick\u00fdch v\u00fd\u0161in, dokud bublina nepraskne (nepraskne) v d\u016fsledku masivn\u00edho prodeje a nedostatku kupuj\u00edc\u00edch, co\u017e zp\u016fsob\u00ed prudk\u00fd pokles cen pod jejich p\u0159irozenou \u00farove\u0148 (prasknut\u00ed). To op\u011bt potvrzuje Keynesovo maximum: \u201eTrhy mohou z\u016fstat iracion\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u00e9le, ne\u017e vy z\u016fstanete solventn\u00ed.\u201c\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Investor je tedy ochoten zaplatit ur\u010ditou cenu za akcii, pokud je pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee v budoucnu vygeneruje p\u0159\u00edjem; hodnota t\u00e9to akcie tedy odpov\u00edd\u00e1 sou\u010dtu o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fdch pen\u011b\u017en\u00edch tok\u016f. Spodn\u00ed hranice glob\u00e1ln\u00edch akciov\u00fdch trh\u016f (\u00farove\u0148, na kter\u00e9 se sb\u00edhaj\u00ed minim\u00e1ln\u00ed zisky a multiplik\u00e1tory) je v\u0161ak od sou\u010dasn\u00fdch \u00farovn\u00ed vzd\u00e1lena sv\u011bteln\u00e9 roky. Nov\u00fd krach akciov\u00e9ho trhu? Pod vlivem Trumpa z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed ameri\u010dt\u00ed investo\u0159i eufori\u010dt\u00ed pot\u00e9, co Dow Jones\u016fv index\u00a0<\/span>prolomil hranici<\/span><\/a>\u00a049 000 bod\u016f (p\u0159ipom\u00ednaj\u00edc\u00ed bublinu na akciov\u00e9m trhu 20. let 20. stolet\u00ed, p\u0159edehru krachu v roce 1929). V d\u016fsledku toho se jen st\u011b\u017e\u00ed dok\u00e1\u017eou vyrovnat se z\u00e1vratnou v\u00fd\u0161kou, kter\u00e9 dos\u00e1hli. Eskalace konfliktu na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b by v\u0161ak mohla vyvolat opakov\u00e1n\u00ed ropn\u00e9 krize z roku 1973 a nov\u00fd krach akciov\u00e9ho trhu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lze tedy p\u0159edv\u00eddat nekontrolovatelnou inflaci, kter\u00e1 urychl\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed r\u016fst dolarov\u00fdch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb, co\u017e investory p\u0159im\u011bje k odvr\u00e1cen\u00ed se od akci\u00ed a umo\u017en\u00ed prodejc\u016fm nakr\u00e1tko p\u0159evz\u00edt kontrolu nad glob\u00e1ln\u00edm akciov\u00fdm trhem. To spust\u00ed prodejn\u00ed \u0161\u00edlenstv\u00ed, kter\u00e9 nakonec zp\u016fsob\u00ed prasknut\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00e9 bubliny na akciov\u00e9m trhu, a t\u00edm potvrd\u00ed Galbraithovo ikonoklastick\u00e9 maximum: \u201eP\u0159ijde den, kdy trh bude padat, jako by se nikdy nezastavil.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato exploze bude m\u00edt n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed vedlej\u0161\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinky: finan\u010dn\u00ed hladomor firem, n\u00e1slednou devalvaci m\u011bn mnoha zem\u00ed za \u00fa\u010delem zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed jejich exportu, a n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dinky: povinnost firem p\u0159edefinovat sv\u00e9 strategie, upravit sv\u00e9 struktury, narovnat sv\u00e9 finance a obnovit svou solventnost v\u016f\u010di trhu (jak tomu bylo b\u011bhem krize akciov\u00e9ho trhu v letech 2000-2002), a n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed vedlej\u0161\u00ed \u0161kody: zk\u00e1zu milion\u016f drobn\u00fdch investor\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed jsou st\u00e1le osl\u0148ov\u00e1ni sv\u011btly stratosf\u00e9ry, finan\u010dn\u00ed hladomor firem a v\u00fdsledn\u00fd dominov\u00fd efekt, vedouc\u00ed k prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed bankrotu a n\u00e1vratu ke stagfla\u010dn\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Germ\u00e1n Gorraiz L\u00f3pez<\/a> , politick\u00fd analytik<\/span><\/em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pokud bude eskalace nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch akc\u00ed mezi Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty a Izraelem na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b pokra\u010dovat, \u00cdr\u00e1n…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":101223,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[4157,1503,371,452],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101222"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=101222"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101222\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/101223"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=101222"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=101222"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=101222"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}