{"id":101028,"date":"2026-03-05T00:16:50","date_gmt":"2026-03-04T23:16:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=101028"},"modified":"2026-03-04T14:19:56","modified_gmt":"2026-03-04T13:19:56","slug":"hormuzsky-uzel-globalni-ekonomika-pod-tlakem-energeticke-blokady","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/03\/05\/hormuzsky-uzel-globalni-ekonomika-pod-tlakem-energeticke-blokady\/","title":{"rendered":"Hormuzsk\u00fd uzel: Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomika pod tlakem energetick\u00e9 blok\u00e1dy"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Sv\u011btov\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 trhy na za\u010d\u00e1tku b\u0159ezna 2026 \u010del\u00ed specifick\u00fdm geopolitick\u00fdm rizik\u016fm. Ozn\u00e1men\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu o uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu a varov\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee jak\u00fdkoli pokus o pr\u016fjezd bude c\u00edlem vojensk\u00e9ho \u00fatoku, n\u00e1sledn\u011b vyvolalo o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 hrozby nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d glob\u00e1ln\u00edmi dodavatelsk\u00fdmi \u0159et\u011bzci. Tento strategick\u00fd uzel je toti\u017e kl\u00ed\u010dovou tepnou sv\u011btov\u00e9ho obchodu \u2013 v roce 2025 j\u00edm proteklo p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 31 % v\u0161ech n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch dod\u00e1vek ropy a 20 % celosv\u011btov\u00e9ho exportu zkapaln\u011bn\u00e9ho zemn\u00edho plynu (LNG), zejm\u00e9na z Kataru.<\/p>\n

Cenov\u00e1 eskalace<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed reakce komoditn\u00edch trh\u016f na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 cvi\u010den\u00ed a n\u00e1slednou blok\u00e1du na sebe nenechala dlouho \u010dekat. Cena ropy Brent ze Severn\u00edho mo\u0159e vzrostla o 4 %, a to na \u00farove\u0148 80 USD za barel*. V t\u00e9to souvislosti je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 podotknout, \u017ee tato cenov\u00e1 hladina nemus\u00ed p\u0159edstavovat lok\u00e1ln\u00ed vrchol. V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed blok\u00e1dy a p\u0159echodu od hrozeb k p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdm \u00fatok\u016fm na tankery bude podle informac\u00ed zprost\u0159edkovan\u00fdch CNBC mo\u017en\u00e9 o\u010dek\u00e1vat n\u00e1r\u016fst cen ropy a\u017e nad hranici 100 USD za barel. Geopolitick\u00e1 pr\u00e9mie se tak st\u00e1v\u00e1 dominantn\u00edm faktorem ur\u010duj\u00edc\u00edm nejen ceny paliv, ale sou\u010dasn\u011b i infla\u010dn\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed v glob\u00e1ln\u00edm m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku. [1]<\/p>\n

Zranitelnost Asie<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Tento cenov\u00fd \u0161ok v\u0161ak nen\u00ed jen \u010d\u00edslem na burze, ale existen\u010dn\u00ed hrozbou pro asijsk\u00e9 ekonomiky, kter\u00e9 jsou p\u0159\u00edmo z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na energetick\u00fdch toc\u00edch z Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu. Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed zranitelnost vykazuje Thajsko, jeho\u017e \u010dist\u00e9 dovozy ropy tvo\u0159\u00ed a\u017e 4,7 % HDP, co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee ka\u017ed\u00e9 zdra\u017een\u00ed energie o 10 % zhor\u0161\u00ed jeho obchodn\u00ed bilanci o 0,5 %. Podobn\u011b kritick\u00e1 situace nast\u00e1v\u00e1 v ji\u017en\u00ed Asii, kde P\u00e1kist\u00e1n a Banglad\u00e9\u0161 \u010del\u00ed akutn\u00edm energetick\u00fdm deficit\u016fm kv\u016fli omezen\u00fdm mo\u017enostem z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed alternativn\u00edho LNG. V neposledn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b Indie, s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed kombinovanou expozic\u00ed v\u016f\u010di rop\u011b i plynu, nar\u00e1\u017e\u00ed na limity sv\u00e9 pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 udr\u017eitelnosti.<\/p>\n

Souboj o rezervy<\/strong><\/h3>\n

A\u010dkoli technologi\u010dt\u00ed l\u00edd\u0159i jako Japonsko a Ji\u017en\u00ed Korea disponuj\u00ed strategick\u00fdmi z\u00e1sobami LNG na \u00farovni dvou a\u017e \u010dty\u0159 t\u00fddn\u016f, jejich z\u00e1vislost na rop\u011b z Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu p\u0159esahuj\u00edc\u00ed 70 % je stav\u00ed do mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b nejist\u00e9 pozice. \u010c\u00edna, a\u010dkoli zat\u00edm vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 sv\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed rezervy, by p\u0159i dlouhodob\u011bj\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdpadku byla nucena vstoupit do agresivn\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed sout\u011b\u017ee o dod\u00e1vky z atlantick\u00e9 oblasti, \u010d\u00edm\u017e by tlak na ceny je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce zn\u00e1sobila. Pr\u00e1v\u011b tato nutnost sout\u011b\u017eit o omezen\u00e9 zdroje v kombinaci s 30% z\u00e1vislost\u00ed Pekingu na katarsk\u00e9m plynu p\u0159edstavuje vysokou rizikovou p\u0159ir\u00e1\u017eku pro sou\u010dasnou situaci na glob\u00e1ln\u00edch trz\u00edch.<\/p>\n

Energetick\u00e1 bezpe\u010dnost<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Pro investory v roce 2026 znamen\u00e1 uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu n\u00e1vrat masivn\u00ed geopolitick\u00e9 pr\u00e9mie nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d v\u0161emi t\u0159\u00eddami aktiv. Kombinace naru\u0161en\u00fdch dodavatelsk\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u016f a prudce rostouc\u00edch n\u00e1klad\u016f na vstupy vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed, ve kter\u00e9m se energetick\u00e1 bezpe\u010dnost st\u00e1v\u00e1 hlavn\u00edm ukazatelem. Stabilita sv\u011btov\u00e9ho hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed je tak v kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku moment\u00e1ln\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na deeskalaci nap\u011bt\u00ed na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b.<\/p>\n

Anna \u0160uhajdov\u00e1, P\u0159edsedkyn\u011b p\u0159edstavenstva <\/strong>CAPITAL MARKETS, o.c.p., a.s.<\/strong><\/a><\/h4>\n

Upozorn\u011bn\u00ed! Tento marketingov\u00fd materi\u00e1l nen\u00ed a nesm\u00ed b\u00fdt ch\u00e1p\u00e1n jako investi\u010dn\u00ed poradenstv\u00ed. \u00dadaje, kter\u00e9 se t\u00fdkaj\u00ed minulosti, nejsou z\u00e1rukou budouc\u00edch v\u00fdnos\u016f. Investov\u00e1n\u00ed v ciz\u00ed m\u011bn\u011b m\u016f\u017ee ovlivnit v\u00fdnosy v d\u016fsledku v\u00fdkyv\u016f. V\u0161echny obchody s cenn\u00fdmi pap\u00edry mohou v\u00e9st jak k zisk\u016fm, tak i ke ztr\u00e1t\u00e1m. V\u00fdhledov\u00e1 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed p\u0159edpoklady a aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt p\u0159esn\u00e9, nebo vych\u00e1zej\u00ed z aktu\u00e1ln\u00edho ekonomick\u00e9ho prost\u0159ed\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se m\u016f\u017ee zm\u011bnit. Tato prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed nezaru\u010duj\u00ed budouc\u00ed v\u00fdkonnost. Spole\u010dnost CAPITAL MARKETS, o.c.p., a.s. je subjekt regulovan\u00fd N\u00e1rodn\u00ed bankou Slovenska.<\/p>\n

*\u00dadaje, kter\u00e9 se t\u00fdkaj\u00ed minulosti, nejsou z\u00e1rukou budouc\u00edch v\u00fdnos\u016f.<\/p>\n

[1] V\u00fdhledov\u00e1 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed p\u0159edpoklady a aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt p\u0159esn\u00e9, nebo vych\u00e1zej\u00ed z aktu\u00e1ln\u00edho ekonomick\u00e9ho prost\u0159ed\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se m\u016f\u017ee zm\u011bnit. Tato prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed nezaru\u010duj\u00ed budouc\u00ed v\u00fdkonnost. V\u00fdhledov\u00e1 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed sv\u00fdm charakterem zahrnuj\u00ed riziko a nejistotu, proto\u017ee souvisej\u00ed s budouc\u00edmi ud\u00e1lostmi a okolnostmi, kter\u00e9 nelze p\u0159edv\u00eddat, a skute\u010dn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj a v\u00fdsledky se mohou v\u00fdrazn\u011b li\u0161it od v\u00fdsledk\u016f vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00fdch nebo implikovan\u00fdch v jak\u00fdchkoli v\u00fdhledov\u00fdch prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edch.<\/p>\n

Zdroje:<\/strong><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/03\/02\/iran-strikes-oil-energy-china.html<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.tasnimnews.ir\/fa\/news\/1404\/12\/12\/3529749<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/03\/03\/strait-of-hormuz-closure-which-countries-will-be-hit-the-most.html<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sv\u011btov\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 trhy na za\u010d\u00e1tku b\u0159ezna 2026 \u010del\u00ed specifick\u00fdm geopolitick\u00fdm rizik\u016fm. Ozn\u00e1men\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu o uzav\u0159en\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":101029,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,59,45,331],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101028"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=101028"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101028\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/101029"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=101028"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=101028"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=101028"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}