{"id":100932,"date":"2026-03-04T00:22:40","date_gmt":"2026-03-03T23:22:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=100932"},"modified":"2026-03-04T04:25:10","modified_gmt":"2026-03-04T03:25:10","slug":"zbynek-fiala-iran-vydrzi-dele","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/03\/04\/zbynek-fiala-iran-vydrzi-dele\/","title":{"rendered":"Zbyn\u011bk Fiala: \u00cdr\u00e1n vydr\u017e\u00ed d\u00e9le?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Strategie \u00cdr\u00e1nu napaden\u00e9ho \u201eEpsteinovou koalic\u00ed\u201c m\u016f\u017ee spo\u010d\u00edvat v s\u00e1zce na po\u010detn\u00ed p\u0159evahu materi\u00e1lu pro vzdu\u0161n\u00e9 boje. Pokud vydr\u017e\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed dva nebo t\u0159i t\u00fddny.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Radost americk\u00e9ho prezidenta Donalda Trumpa, \u017ee se mu poda\u0159ilo ne\u010dekan\u00fdm \u00faderem odstranit cel\u00e9 nen\u00e1vid\u011bn\u00e9 \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed, byla kr\u00e1tk\u00e1. Duchovn\u00ed v\u016fdce Chamene\u00ed u\u017e tu nen\u00ed, ale jeho varov\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee americk\u00fd \u00fatok rozpout\u00e1 region\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lku, se naplnilo. Naopak se nenaplnily naivn\u00ed p\u0159edpoklady Ameri\u010dan\u016f, \u017ee po vln\u011b protest\u016f, kter\u00e9 \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 bezpe\u010dnost krut\u011b potla\u010dila, bude likvidace star\u00e9ho veden\u00ed ob\u010dany vn\u00edm\u00e1na jako jedine\u010dn\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost ke zm\u011bn\u011b re\u017eimu.<\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n \u00fato\u010d\u00ed na spojence Ameri\u010dan\u016f, proto\u017ee ti jsou v\u00a0dosahu jeho raket se z\u00e1m\u011brn\u011b omezen\u00fdm dost\u0159elem na 2000 kilometr\u016f. To v\u0161ak sta\u010d\u00ed na \u0161irok\u00fd okruh c\u00edl\u016f v\u010detn\u011b Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie, Kuvajtu, Bahrajnu nebo Sjednocen\u00fdch arabsk\u00fdch emir\u00e1t\u016f, nemluv\u011b o Izraeli. A americk\u00fd spojenec je nedok\u00e1\u017ee v\u0161ude br\u00e1nit.<\/p>\n

V\u00e1lka, kter\u00e1 m\u011bla b\u00fdt dal\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edkladem bleskurychl\u00e9ho prosazen\u00ed americk\u00e9 mocensk\u00e9 p\u0159evahy, kter\u00e1 nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt s\u00a0nik\u00fdm konzultov\u00e1na, za\u010dne dol\u00e9hat i na Evropu. Horm\u00fazsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv byl \u00cdr\u00e1nem uzav\u0159en a ve vod\u00e1ch Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu uv\u00e1zly tis\u00edce lod\u00ed nalo\u017een\u00fdch ropou. To m\u00e1 \u0159adu dal\u0161\u00edch d\u016fsledk\u016f, kter\u00e9 zesiluj\u00ed tento n\u00e1stroj, jak p\u0159en\u00e9st tlak i na evropsk\u00e9 spojence Ameri\u010dan\u016f.<\/p>\n

Prvn\u00ed d\u016fsledek napadne ka\u017ed\u00e9ho, ropa nebude doru\u010dena. Druh\u00fd se t\u00fdk\u00e1 paralyzov\u00e1n\u00ed samotn\u00fdch lod\u00ed, kter\u00e9 nemohou poslou\u017eit pro dopravu z\u00a0n\u00e1hradn\u00edch zdroj\u016f. Ale posti\u017eena jsou i ropn\u00e1 pole, kter\u00e9 tato flotila obsluhuje. Po p\u00e1r t\u00fddnech budou muset t\u011b\u017ebu p\u0159eru\u0161it, proto\u017ee vyt\u011b\u017eenou ropu nebude kde skladovat.<\/p>\n

Znovu se uk\u00e1\u017ee velk\u00e1 v\u00fdhoda p\u0159epravy surovin potrub\u00edm, t\u0159eba z\u00a0Ruska do \u010c\u00edny. A dlouhodob\u011b zejm\u00e9na v\u00fdhoda sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed pot\u0159eby fosiln\u00edch zdroj\u016f ze vzd\u00e1len\u00fdch nest\u00e1l\u00fdch region\u016f. St\u00e1le v\u00fdhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed bude zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed pod\u00edlu elekt\u0159iny v ekonomice, nebo\u0165 ta se pos\u00edl\u00e1 po dr\u00e1tech a ke v\u0161emu rychlost\u00ed mnohem bli\u017e\u0161\u00ed\u00a0rychlosti sv\u011btla. St\u00e1le nebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je tak\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e1 i vojensk\u00e1 a politick\u00e1 z\u00e1vislost na p\u0159el\u00e9tav\u00fdch Ameri\u010danech, kte\u0159\u00ed ud\u011blaj\u00ed z\u00a0kamar\u00e1da ob\u011b\u0165, a ani p\u0159i tom nemrknou okem.<\/p>\n

V\u00fdvoj konfliktu se pokou\u0161\u00edm sledovat na alternativn\u00edch m\u00e9di\u00edch, abych doplnil zpravodajstv\u00ed mainstreamu.<\/p>\n

Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pozornost vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 ned\u011bln\u00ed sest\u0159elen\u00ed t\u0159\u00ed americk\u00fdch st\u00edha\u010dek F-15E v\u00a0Kuvajtu, dokonce b\u011bhem stejn\u00e9ho kr\u00e1tk\u00e9ho intervalu kolem 11:03 m\u00edstn\u00edho \u010dasu. Jedna u\u017e byla sest\u0159elena p\u0159edt\u00edm, tak\u017ee jsou \u010dty\u0159i. Ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed zpr\u00e1va americk\u00fdch sil mluv\u00ed o tom, \u017ee byly ob\u011bt\u00ed ne\u0161\u0165astn\u00e9 \u201ep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 palby\u201c, \u010dili, \u017ee je omylem sest\u0159elily kuvajtsk\u00e9 s\u00edly. To je jin\u00fdmi zdroji d\u00edlem potvrzov\u00e1no, d\u00edlem zpochyb\u0148ov\u00e1no.<\/p>\n

Letadla jsou vybavena technologi\u00ed na identifikaci p\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 palby (IFF), kter\u00e1 byla Ameri\u010dany prod\u00e1v\u00e1na jako bezkonkuren\u010dn\u011b dokonal\u00e1. Jak v\u0161ak zaznamenal Simplicius, ve zpr\u00e1v\u00e1ch se objevuj\u00ed p\u0159izn\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee \u201ev\u0161ichni v\u011bd\u00ed\u201c, jak \u00fapln\u011b dokonal\u00e1 nen\u00ed a a vy\u017eaduje n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00fd v\u00fdcvik, jak\u00fd ne ka\u017ed\u00fd zvl\u00e1dne\u2026 No, nekupte to!<\/p>\n

Ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed zpr\u00e1va Ameri\u010dan\u016f zaznamen\u00e1v\u00e1 i skute\u010dnost, \u017ee sest\u0159elen\u00e9 americk\u00e9 st\u00edha\u010dky byly\u00a0\u00a0p\u0159edt\u00edm zapojeny do vzdu\u0161n\u00fdch souboj\u016f s\u00a0\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdmi silami. To vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 pochybnost o tom, co je sundalo z\u00a0nebe. Byly tak\u00e9 v\u00a0dostupn\u00e9 vzd\u00e1lenosti od protileteck\u00fdch raketov\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f S-300, kter\u00e9 byly \u00cdr\u00e1nu dod\u00e1ny z\u00a0Ruska. Dal\u0161\u00ed spekulace poukazuje na mo\u017en\u00e9 vybaven\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch dron\u016f Geran a Shahed ruskou n\u00e1stavbou, kter\u00e1 je m\u011bn\u00ed na nosi\u010de protiletadlov\u00fdch st\u0159el.<\/p>\n

Je tu z\u0159ejm\u00e1 propast mezi \u00fatokem a obranou invazn\u00edch sil. Zat\u00edmco americk\u00e9 a izraelsk\u00e9 vzdu\u0161n\u00e9 \u00fatoky na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 c\u00edle jsou zni\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed, obrana je leckde \u00fapln\u011b nulov\u00e1, jak ukazuj\u00ed z\u00e1b\u011bry nejen civiln\u00edch c\u00edl\u016f v\u00a0sousedn\u00edch zem\u00edch s\u00a0americkou p\u0159\u00edtomnost\u00ed, na kter\u00e9 ude\u0159ila \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 odveta, ale dokonce i na strategicky v\u00fdznamnou z\u00e1kladnu americk\u00fdch n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch sil.<\/p>\n

Satelitn\u00ed sn\u00edmky z 1. b\u0159ezna, kter\u00e9 prov\u011b\u0159il den\u00edk The New York Times, ukazuj\u00ed rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 \u0161kody na z\u00e1kladn\u011b\u00a0Naval Support Activity Bahrain<\/em>, kde s\u00eddl\u00ed 5. flotila americk\u00e9ho n\u00e1mo\u0159nictva, po opakovan\u00fdch \u00fatoc\u00edch \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch raket a dron\u016f. Americk\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed se jev\u00ed jako zcela bezbrann\u00e1 a neschopn\u00e1 \u010delit ani m\u00edrn\u00e9mu nasazen\u00ed dron\u016f. V dal\u0161\u00edm videu drony Shahed klidn\u011b vy\u0159azuj\u00ed z provozu jinou region\u00e1ln\u00ed americkou z\u00e1kladnu, zat\u00edmco americk\u00e9 jednotky bezmocn\u011b p\u0159ihl\u00ed\u017eej\u00ed v \u0161oku.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/simplicius76.substack.com\/p\/us-suffers-worst-day-of-air-losses<\/a><\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed koment\u00e1\u0159e poukazuj\u00ed na to, \u017ee Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty sleduj\u00ed protich\u016fdn\u00e9 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 c\u00edle. B\u00edl\u00fd d\u016fm se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt naklon\u011bn jedn\u00e1n\u00ed, ale potom, co zabil cel\u00e9 \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho veden\u00ed, nez\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nikdo, kdo by m\u011bl jasnou pravomoc k jedn\u00e1n\u00ed. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da v podstat\u011b vyprazd\u0148uje z\u00e1sobn\u00edky bez centr\u00e1ln\u00edho velen\u00ed, nen\u00ed ani jasn\u00e9, zda by \u00cdr\u00e1n mohl uzav\u0159\u00edt p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, i kdyby cht\u011bl. Trump v\u00fdslovn\u011b \u0159ekl, \u017ee lid\u00e9, od nich\u017e se o\u010dek\u00e1valo, \u017ee p\u0159evezmou velen\u00ed v Teher\u00e1nu, jsou nyn\u00ed mrtv\u00ed, p\u00ed\u0161e Big Serge na soci\u00e1ln\u00ed s\u00edti X.<\/p>\n

Ozna\u010duje to za\u00a0\u201erecept na maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed chaos s minim\u00e1ln\u00edmi brzdami\u201c<\/em>. USA se mus\u00ed zav\u00e1zat ke h\u0159e na s\u00edlu, a to bu\u010f do t\u00e9 doby, ne\u017e bude \u00fadern\u00e1 schopnost \u00cdr\u00e1nu zcela oslabena, nebo do t\u00e9 doby, ne\u017e Teher\u00e1n znovu nastol\u00ed centr\u00e1ln\u00ed kontrolu a bude schopen pod\u0159\u00eddit se n\u011bjak\u00e9mu vyjednan\u00e9mu p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed. Druh\u00e1 mo\u017enost se nezd\u00e1 pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e1, proto\u017ee USA systematicky oslabuj\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 velen\u00ed a kontrolu.<\/p>\n

A prvn\u00ed mo\u017enost? Pokud to bude v\u00e1lka na v\u00fddr\u017e, \u00fato\u010dn\u00edk\u016fm dojdou prost\u0159edky protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany, kter\u00e9 jsou o mnoho \u0159\u00e1d\u016f n\u00e1kladn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e hejna \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch dron\u016f a raket, kter\u00fdm mus\u00ed \u010delit. Vojensk\u00fd analytik Michael Svato\u0161 uv\u00e1d\u00ed analytick\u00e9 odhady n\u00e1klad\u016f Pentagonu na jeden den v\u00e1lky s\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nem na zhruba 800 milion\u016f dolar\u016f. Ale to jsou jen pen\u00edze, kter\u00e9 se daj\u00ed snadno natisknout.<\/p>\n

\u201eProto\u017ee spot\u0159eba n\u011bkter\u00fdch kategori\u00ed zbran\u00ed, t\u0159eba raket Tomahawk je enormn\u00ed (zat\u00edm p\u0159es 200), a jejich v\u00fdroba je extr\u00e9mn\u011b pomal\u00e1, analytici p\u0159edpokl\u00e1daj\u00ed, \u017ee USA sice maj\u00ed s ur\u010ditost\u00ed z\u00e1soby na 2 a\u017e 3 t\u00fddny v\u00e1lky proti Ir\u00e1nu, ale potom budou st\u00e1t<\/span> p\u0159ed zapeklit\u00fdm probl\u00e9mem, jak ve v\u00e1lce pokra\u010dovat, a nevy\u010derpat p\u0159itom nedotknuteln\u00e9 z\u00e1soby ur\u010den\u00e9 na potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lku s Ruskem, nebo s \u010c\u00ednou. Nejv\u00edce se toto vy\u010derp\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1sob bude projevovat v raket\u00e1ch proti dron\u016fm, a antibalistick\u00fdch st\u0159el\u00e1ch. Strategie Ir\u00e1nu, po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 pr\u00e1v\u011b s t\u00edm, \u017ee Ameri\u010dan\u016fm dojdou rychle v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 z\u00e1soby, a s t\u00edm i chu\u0165 bojovat,\u201c p\u0159eb\u00edr\u00e1 Svato\u0161 hodnocen\u00ed jednoho ze sv\u00fdch zdroj\u016f.<\/p>\n

Michael Svato\u0161: USA si nemohou dovolit v\u00e9st v\u00e1lku proti Ir\u00e1nu sou\u010dasnou intenzitou del\u0161\u00ed dobu<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Zbyn\u011bk Fiala<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Strategie \u00cdr\u00e1nu napaden\u00e9ho \u201eEpsteinovou koalic\u00ed\u201c m\u016f\u017ee spo\u010d\u00edvat v s\u00e1zce na po\u010detn\u00ed p\u0159evahu materi\u00e1lu pro vzdu\u0161n\u00e9…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":51587,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,45,38,37,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100932"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=100932"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100932\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/51587"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=100932"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=100932"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=100932"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}