{"id":10090,"date":"2022-04-30T01:02:40","date_gmt":"2022-04-29T23:02:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=10090"},"modified":"2022-04-29T19:13:09","modified_gmt":"2022-04-29T17:13:09","slug":"sergej-karaganov-jsme-proti-velkemu-zapadu-ktery-se-drive-nebo-pozdeji-zacne-hroutit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2022\/04\/30\/sergej-karaganov-jsme-proti-velkemu-zapadu-ktery-se-drive-nebo-pozdeji-zacne-hroutit\/","title":{"rendered":"Sergej Karaganov: Jsme proti velk\u00e9mu Z\u00e1padu, kter\u00fd se d\u0159\u00edve nebo pozd\u011bji za\u010dne hroutit"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Podle n\u00e1zoru Sergeje Karaganova, doktora historick\u00fdch v\u011bd, \u010destn\u00e9ho p\u0159edsedy Rady pro zahrani\u010dn\u00ed a\u00a0obrannou politiku, se zn\u00e1mky tohoto \u00fapadku hromadily ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve \u2013 cel\u00e9 20.\u00a0stolet\u00ed. Proces se urychlil, kdy\u017e SSSR a\u00a0pot\u00e9 \u010c\u00edna z\u00edskaly jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Demokracie a\u00a0pohodln\u00e9 re\u017eimy<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Ukrajinsk\u00fd konflikt je jedn\u00edm z\u00a0kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch, ale nen\u00ed prvn\u00ed ani posledn\u00ed epizodou poklesu z\u00e1padoevropsk\u00e9 dominance na na\u0161\u00ed planet\u011b. Pokud se ov\u0161em poda\u0159\u00ed vyhnout v\u0161eobecn\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 v\u00e1lce a\u00a0konci lidsk\u00fdch d\u011bjin. Podle n\u00e1zoru Sergeje Karaganova, doktora historick\u00fdch v\u011bd, \u010destn\u00e9ho p\u0159edsedy Rady pro zahrani\u010dn\u00ed a\u00a0obrannou politiku, se zn\u00e1mky tohoto \u00fapadku hromadily ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve \u2013 cel\u00e9 20.\u00a0stolet\u00ed. Proces se urychlil, kdy\u017e SSSR a\u00a0pot\u00e9 \u010c\u00edna z\u00edskaly jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b. To podkopalo z\u00e1klad dominance Z\u00e1padu \u2013 jeho t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 p\u011bt stolet\u00ed trvaj\u00edc\u00ed vojenskou p\u0159evahu.<\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1lo se, \u017ee po\u00a0rozpadu SSSR se proces obr\u00e1til, ale s\u00a0obrodou Ruska v\u00a0roce 2000 a\u00a0vzestupem \u010c\u00edny a\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch \u201enez\u00e1padn\u00edch zem\u00ed\u201c, kter\u00e9 se objevily, se znovu zrychlil.<\/p>\n

Sergeji Alexandrovi\u010di, jak vid\u00edte sou\u010dasn\u00fd konflikt na Ukrajin\u011b, kdy\u017e ho vezmete v\u00a0\u0161ir\u0161\u00edm historick\u00e9m a\u00a0geopolitick\u00e9m kontextu?<\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Sergej Karaganov:<\/strong>\u00a0Z\u00e1pad vede zoufal\u00fd boj o\u00a0udr\u017een\u00ed sv\u00e9 hegemonie, kter\u00e1 mu umo\u017enila \u010derpat sv\u011btov\u00fd produkt ve sv\u016fj prosp\u011bch. V\u00a0ideologick\u00e9 rovin\u011b je to prezentov\u00e1no jako boj mezi liber\u00e1ln\u00edmi demokraciemi a\u00a0autorit\u00e1\u0159stv\u00edm (p\u0159ed tim komunismem). Ale kdyby Rusko a\u00a0\u010c\u00edna byly demokraciemi a\u00a0z\u00e1padn\u00ed zem\u011b monarchiemi, pak by se vedl boj proti \u201ebezbo\u017en\u00e9mu liberalismu\u201c. Je to boj skupiny zem\u00ed o\u00a0v\u00fdsadn\u00ed postaven\u00ed. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b mnoz\u00ed v\u011b\u0159\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00e9mu slovn\u00edmu obalu tohoto boje. Z\u00e1pad vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 v\u0161echny nemal\u00e9 zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed rezervy \u2013 v\u00a0pov\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9m ekonomick\u00e9m syst\u00e9mu vytvo\u0159en\u00e9m podle jeho vzor\u016f (sankce), v\u00a0informa\u010dn\u00edm prostoru (vlna rusofobie nev\u00eddan\u00e1 od Hitlerov\u00fdch dob), k\u00a0tomu, aby udr\u017eel svoje pozice.\u00a0Ukrajina m\u011bla sehr\u00e1t roli o\u0161t\u011bpu, jeho\u017e hrot se nach\u00e1z\u00ed v\u00a0srdci vojensko-politick\u00e9ho j\u00e1dra \u201ene Z\u00e1padu\u201c \u2013 Ruska.<\/strong>\u00a0Tohle je skute\u010dn\u00fd boj. Cht\u011bli by n\u00e1s oslabit a\u00a0zni\u010dit, lituj\u00edce, \u017ee tak neu\u010dinili v\u00a090t\u00fdch letech. Bude to t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 obdob\u00ed. Ale takov\u00fd je osud Ruska \u2013 st\u00e1t na p\u0159edn\u00edch hranic\u00edch. Je t\u0159eba se sjednotit, vydr\u017eet a\u00a0zv\u00edt\u011bzit. Mysl\u00edm, \u017ee Z\u00e1pad se bude muset sm\u00ed\u0159it se skromn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm postaven\u00edm ve sv\u011btov\u00e9m syst\u00e9mu.\u00a0<\/em>Z\u00e1pad vede zoufal\u00fd boj o\u00a0udr\u017een\u00ed sv\u00e9 hegemonie, kter\u00e1 mu umo\u017e\u0148uje \u010derpat sv\u011btov\u00e9 bohatstv\u00ed \u00a0ve sv\u016fj prosp\u011bch<\/em>\u00a0<\/em>V rozhovorech, kter\u00e9 Rusko vede s\u00a0Ukrajinou, se zejm\u00e9na diskutuje o\u00a0seznamu zem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se mohou st\u00e1t garanty nejadern\u00e9ho, \u200b\u200bneutr\u00e1ln\u00edho statutu Kyjeva. Mohou se ale tyto dohody st\u00e1t z\u00e1rukou, \u017ee se Ukrajina op\u011bt neprom\u011bn\u00ed v\u00a0\u201eanti-Rusko\u201c a\u00a0po\u00a0ur\u010dit\u00e9 dob\u011b ji nebudeme muset op\u011bt denacifikovat?<\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sergej Karaganov:<\/strong>\u00a0Takov\u00e9 dohody s\u00a0Ukrajinou mohou b\u00fdt zat\u00edm pouze p\u0159est\u00e1vkou p\u0159ed nov\u00fdmi v\u00fdzvami, kter\u00fdm bude Rusko \u010delit, pokud nevy\u0159e\u0161\u00edme \u201eukrajinskou ot\u00e1zku\u201c. Ne\u0159e\u0161ili jsme probl\u00e9my s\u00a0Ukrajinou na za\u010d\u00e1tku 90.\u00a0let, ne\u0159e\u0161ili jsme probl\u00e9my v\u00a0roce 2000. Ani v\u00a0roce 2014 jsme tyto probl\u00e9my pln\u011b nevy\u0159e\u0161ili.\u00a0A nyn\u00ed s\u00a0jistotou v\u00edme, \u017ee z\u00e1padn\u00ed partne\u0159i zaprv\u00e9 nejsou d\u016fv\u011bryhodn\u00ed a\u00a0zadruh\u00e9 nelze s\u00a0nimi dos\u00e1hnout \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 dohody.<\/strong>\u00a0Nemluv\u00edm o\u00a0veden\u00ed Ukrajiny,\u00a0<\/strong>kter\u00e9 cel\u00fdch t\u011bch 30 let postupn\u011b degradovalo. Te\u010f ani nev\u00edme, s\u00a0k\u00fdm tam m\u00e1me jednat, krom\u011b n\u011bkter\u00fdch individu\u00e1ln\u00edch osobnost\u00ed a\u00a0ukrajinsk\u00e9ho prezidenta, kte\u0159\u00ed jsou s\u00a0nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed \u0159\u00edzeni zven\u010d\u00ed. Tot\u00e9\u017e m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt i\u00a0v\u00a0budoucnu. Ukrajina m\u016f\u017ee, samoz\u0159ejm\u011b, p\u0159ijmout bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky od jin\u00fdch zem\u00ed. My mus\u00edme vyjedn\u00e1vat.\u00a0Ale pro Rusko bude jedinou z\u00e1rukou na\u0161\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti za prv\u00e9 \u00fapln\u00e1 demilitarizace \u00fazemn\u00edho celku, kter\u00fd zde z\u016fstane, sou\u010dasn\u011b se z\u00e1kazem dr\u017een\u00ed t\u011b\u017ek\u00fdch zbran\u00ed touto zem\u00ed.<\/strong>\u00a0A\u00a0za druh\u00e9 vytvo\u0159en\u00ed na \u00fazem\u00ed Ukrajiny \u2013 na co nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed plo\u0161e, ale v\u00a0\u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b ne na cel\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed Ukrajiny \u2013 sp\u0159\u00e1telen\u00fdch vl\u00e1d.\u00a0<\/strong>K tomu, aby takov\u00e1 varianta byla pro sv\u011btov\u00e9 hr\u00e1\u010de p\u0159ijateln\u00e1, bude samoz\u0159ejm\u011b, nutn\u00e9 dohodnout vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky. Ale v\u00a0ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b je to jen mal\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st velk\u00e9ho \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed. Toto zaprv\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Zadruh\u00e9. V\u00a0sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b jsme, podle m\u00e9ho n\u00e1zoru, je\u0161t\u011b nevy\u0159e\u0161ili hlavn\u00ed probl\u00e9m, kter\u00fdm je demilitarizace a\u00a0denacifikace Ukrajiny a\u00a0osvobozen\u00ed Donbasu. Bude se to muset vy\u0159e\u0161it vojensk\u00fdmi prost\u0159edky, jedn\u00e1n\u00ed jsou v\u00a0t\u00e9to f\u00e1zi k\u00a0ni\u010demu.\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a0Je v\u0161ak t\u0159eba vz\u00edt v\u00a0\u00favahu, \u017ee z\u00e1padn\u00ed v\u016fdci kyjevsk\u00e9ho re\u017eimu budou vojenskou operaci v\u0161emi prost\u0159edky protahovat ve snaze zp\u016fsobit Rusku maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0161kody a\u00a0bojovat do posledn\u00edho Ukrajince.<\/p>\n

Nedojde k\u00a0\u201esyrianizaci\u201c konfliktu na Ukrajin\u011b? Zasekneme se tam jako v\u00a0Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu?<\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Sergej Karaganov: \u201eAfgh\u00e1nizace\u201c Ukrajiny je c\u00edlem n\u011bkter\u00fdch na\u0161ich z\u00e1padn\u00edch rival\u016f, v\u00a0ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b c\u00edlem Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f. V\u00a0S\u00fdrii se takov\u00fdm c\u00edlem netajili, ale nevy\u0161lo to. Nyn\u00ed mus\u00edme pochopit, \u017ee dlouhodob\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 akce jsou v\u00a0z\u00e1jmu Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f. My ale mus\u00edme \u0159e\u0161it hlavn\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 \u00fakoly.\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>P\u0159irozen\u011b nejsem p\u0159ipraven radit na\u0161emu vojensko-politick\u00e9mu veden\u00ed, ale zven\u010d\u00ed se mi zd\u00e1, \u017ee je nutn\u00e9 co nejd\u0159\u00edve dokon\u010dit por\u00e1\u017eku hlavn\u00edch uskupen\u00ed ozbrojen\u00fdch sil Ukrajiny, zni\u010dit jej\u00ed arm\u00e1dn\u00ed infrastrukturu. A\u00a0vytvo\u0159it na v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti \u00fazem\u00ed Ukrajiny dostatek prorusk\u00fdch re\u017eim\u016f. To z\u00a0m\u00e9ho pohledu znamen\u00e1, \u017ee pokusy dostat se k\u00a0z\u00e1padn\u00ed hranici, jak navrhuj\u00ed n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed na\u0161i pozorovatel\u00e9, a\u00a0n\u00e1sledn\u011b ovl\u00e1dnout celou Ukrajinu, jsou kontraproduktivn\u00ed.\u00a0Ukrajina \u017eila z\u00a0velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti z\u00a0dotac\u00ed i\u00a0v\u00a0sov\u011btsk\u00fdch dob\u00e1ch. Nyn\u00ed Ukrajina zchudla. Jedn\u00e1 se o\u00a0nejchud\u0161\u00ed zemi v\u00a0Evrop\u011b z\u00a0hlediska HDP na obyvatele a\u00a0p\u0159ipad\u00e1 mi nevhodn\u00e9 br\u00e1t na sebe takov\u00e9 b\u0159emeno. Mimo jin\u00e9 je t\u0159eba pochopit, \u017ee prost\u0159edky investovan\u00e9 do rozvoje Sibi\u0159e a\u00a0D\u00e1ln\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu jsou mnohem perspektivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Prost\u011b mus\u00edme napravit situaci na Z\u00e1pad\u011b tak, abychom vylou\u010dili vojenskou hrozbu z\u00a0t\u00e9to strany. Ukrajina n\u00e1s nutn\u011b odv\u00e1d\u00ed od rozvoje mnohem slibn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho v\u00fdchodn\u00edho sm\u011bru. Mus\u00edme se zamyslet nad t\u00edm, jak tento negativn\u00ed dopad minimalizovat.<\/p>\n

Rusofobie \u2013 ka\u017edodenn\u00ed, politick\u00e1 se na Z\u00e1pad\u011b stala normou. Ve vztahu k\u00a0Evrop\u011b se dokonce do politick\u00e9ho u\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed zavedl term\u00edn \u201e\u010ctvrt\u00fd Reich\u201c. Mysl\u00edte si, \u017ee takov\u00e9 z\u00e1v\u011bry jsou p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9?<\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Serg\u011bj Karaganov:\u00a0<\/strong>O historick\u00fdch ko\u0159enech sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho zhor\u0161en\u00ed jsem mluvil na za\u010d\u00e1tku na\u0161eho rozhovoru.\u00a0Rusofobie v\u00a0Evrop\u011b m\u00e1 hlubok\u00e9 historick\u00e9 ko\u0159eny.\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>Ale sou\u010dasn\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst je fenomen\u00e1ln\u00ed a\u00a0je podobn\u00fd antisemitismu, honu na \u010darod\u011bjnice v\u00a0minul\u00fdch stalet\u00edch.\u00a0Souvis\u00ed to s\u00a0okolnost\u00ed, zd\u00e1 se mi, \u017ee na Z\u00e1pad\u011b, zejm\u00e9na v\u00a0Evrop\u011b, hromada nevy\u0159e\u0161en\u00fdch probl\u00e9m\u016f rostla a\u00a0roste.<\/em>\u00a0Soci\u00e1ln\u00ed, politick\u00e9, ekonomick\u00e9. Sou\u010dasn\u00e9 elity tuto v\u00fdzvu nezvl\u00e1daj\u00ed. Hlavn\u00ed z\u00a0nich je redukce a\u00a0absolutn\u00ed zb\u00edda\u010den\u00ed st\u0159edn\u00ed t\u0159\u00eddy, kter\u00e1 tvo\u0159\u00ed z\u00e1klad z\u00e1padn\u00edch spole\u010dnost\u00ed. Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 podoba vl\u00e1dy tomuto tlaku nem\u016f\u017ee odolat. P\u0159itom demokracie, na rozd\u00edl od v\u0161eobecn\u00e9ho p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00ed, velmi \u010dasto, a\u00a0zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b nyn\u00ed, pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho nep\u0159\u00edtele. Protirusk\u00e9 n\u00e1lady jsou napumpovan\u00e9 u\u017e p\u016fldruh\u00e9 dek\u00e1dy. Pandemie covidu na chv\u00edli odvedla pozornost evropsk\u00fdch elit. Covid ale fungoval jen dva roky. V\u00edce ne\u017e jednou jsem napsal, \u017ee kdy\u017e covid za\u010dal kon\u010dit, mus\u00edme o\u010dek\u00e1vat vypuknut\u00ed nov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky.\u00a0Nyn\u00ed je ukrajinsk\u00fd konflikt samoz\u0159ejm\u011b mocn\u00fdm n\u00e1strojem, jak odvr\u00e1tit pozornost z\u00e1padn\u00ed ve\u0159ejnosti od vnit\u0159n\u00edch probl\u00e9m\u016f.\u00a0<\/strong>To je na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b. Na druhou stranu v\u00a0Evrop\u011b ch\u00e1pou, \u017ee jejich rozvojov\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny jsou zma\u0159eny. B\u011bhem 70 let, kter\u00e9 uplynuly od konce druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, Evropan\u00e9 zapomn\u011bli na svou historii a\u00a0mysleli si, \u017ee jsou v\u00a0situaci v\u011b\u010dn\u00e9ho m\u00edru. Namlouvali si, \u017ee roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed NATO nepovede k\u00a0v\u00e1lce. I\u00a0kdy\u017e lid\u00e9 jako j\u00e1 upozor\u0148uj\u00ed na nebezpe\u010d\u00ed u\u017e des\u00edtky let.\u00a0A nyn\u00ed se sv\u011bt Evrop\u011b doslova obr\u00e1til vzh\u016fru nohama. A\u00a0hn\u011bv, kter\u00fd kv\u016fli tomu vznikl, pad\u00e1 i\u00a0na Rusko.<\/em>\u00a0P\u0159evr\u00e1til \u00a0se klidn\u00fd obr\u00e1zek evropsk\u00e9ho ob\u010dana.<\/p>\n

Dod\u00e1v\u00e1me plyn na Z\u00e1pad. A\u00a0kolektivn\u00ed Z\u00e1pad dod\u00e1v\u00e1 zbran\u011b Ukrajin\u011b, aby t\u011bmito zbran\u011bmi mohla zab\u00edjet rusk\u00e9 voj\u00e1ky. Pot\u0159ebujeme dnes prolomit tento za\u010darovan\u00fd kruh?<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sergej Karaganov:<\/strong>\u00a0Ekonomick\u00e9 vztahy Ruska se Z\u00e1padem jsou de facto revidov\u00e1ny \u2013 to je zcela objektivn\u00ed proces, rozta\u017een\u00fd v\u00a0\u010dase. Te\u010f si jen mus\u00edme spo\u010d\u00edtat, jak moc je tato rychl\u00e1 roztr\u017eka pro Rusko v\u00fdhodn\u00e1. Ale zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee d\u0159\u00edve nebo pozd\u011bji, nebo sp\u00ed\u0161e d\u0159\u00edve,\u00a0budeme muset nastolit ot\u00e1zku od\u0159\u00edznut\u00ed kan\u00e1l\u016f pro dod\u00e1vky zbran\u00ed na Ukrajinu, co\u017e je ze strany Z\u00e1padu absolutn\u011b nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fd akt. To m\u016f\u017ee v\u00e9st k\u00a0pot\u0159eb\u011b eskalace \u00fader\u016f na vojensk\u00e9 c\u00edle, kter\u00e9 jsou ji\u017e mimo Ukrajinu. A\u00a0to pod\u00e9l dopravn\u00edch tepen. A\u00a0samoz\u0159ejm\u011b mus\u00edme p\u0159eru\u0161it v\u0161echny dopravn\u00ed tepny na z\u00e1pad\u011b Ukrajiny. Ale to je \u00fakol vojensko-politick\u00e9ho velen\u00ed.<\/strong>\u00a0A jak se konflikt na Ukrajin\u011b protahuje, pravd\u011bpodobnost takzvan\u00e9 horizont\u00e1ln\u00ed a\u00a0vertik\u00e1ln\u00ed eskalace se bude zvy\u0161ovat. Tedy roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed konfliktu. A\u00a0mo\u017en\u00e1 i\u00a0p\u0159eveden\u00ed na vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed a\u00a0d\u011bsiv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 zbran\u00ed. Tato ot\u00e1zka je bohu\u017eel \u010d\u00edm d\u00e1l nal\u00e9hav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Mus\u00edme pochopit, \u017ee \u017eijeme ve sv\u011bt\u011b, ve kter\u00e9m neexistuj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 pravidla a\u00a0slu\u0161no st. Jsou zni\u010deny. M\u00e1me co do \u010din\u011bn\u00ed se z\u00e1padn\u00edmi elitami, kter\u00e9 ztratily orientaci.\u00a0<\/strong>Nejmarkantn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edkladem je pro m\u011b zmrazen\u00ed aktiv Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky Ruska. Dob\u0159e, samo o\u00a0sob\u011b je to banditsk\u00fd \u010din. Ale tento banditsk\u00fd \u010din je nam\u00ed\u0159en proti jadern\u00e9 supervelmoci. To bylo v\u00a0z\u00e1sad\u011b pova\u017eov\u00e1no za nemo\u017en\u00e9 i\u00a0v\u00a0teorii mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch vztah\u016f, v\u00a0teorii jadern\u00e9ho odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0Toto je v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd akt. A\u00a0to u\u017e otev\u00edr\u00e1 zcela nekone\u010dn\u00e9 mo\u017enosti pro odpov\u011b\u010f.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nap\u0159\u00edklad jednodu\u0161e p\u0159ev\u00e9st tuto \u00farove\u0148 na opa\u010dnou hrozbu a\u00a0po\u017eadovat nejen pen\u00edze zp\u011bt, ale i\u00a0kompenzaci.<\/p>\n

M\u00e1m podez\u0159en\u00ed, \u017ee na\u0161e veden\u00ed zva\u017euje r\u016fzn\u00e9 mo\u017enosti.\u00a0Ale z\u00a0m\u00e9ho pohledu vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho pozorovatele je zabaven\u00ed majetku ji\u017e absolutn\u00ed \u201ecasus belli\u201c.<\/strong>\u00a0Siln\u011b podez\u00edr\u00e1m, \u017ee pokud se my a\u00a0na\u0161i z\u00e1padn\u00ed partne\u0159i nezastav\u00edme v\u010das, konflikt se posune na zcela novou \u00farove\u0148. Situace ale m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt je\u0161t\u011b nebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Kdy\u017e jsme m\u011bli karibskou krizi, st\u00e1le jsme jednali s\u00a0odpov\u011bdn\u00fdmi politiky, kte\u0159\u00ed pro\u0161li druhou sv\u011btovou v\u00e1lkou. Nyn\u00ed je \u00farove\u0148 politick\u00fdch elit na Z\u00e1pad\u011b nesrovnateln\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed. I\u00a0ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech, kde je\u0161t\u011b z\u016fstaly zbytky strategick\u00e9 vize. V\u00a0Americe te\u010f nevid\u00edm t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 zn\u00e1mky realistick\u00e9ho my\u0161len\u00ed. Mo\u017en\u00e1 jen v\u00a0oblasti Pentagonu. Nev\u00edm dost o\u00a0tom, co se d\u011bje uvnit\u0159. Ale to, co d\u011blaj\u00ed Ameri\u010dan\u00e9, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1dnouc\u00ed elita je tak\u00e9 hluboce rozd\u011blena,\u00a0vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 zd\u011b\u0161en\u00ed<\/strong>. Nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, jak s\u00a0touto administrativou \u201ehr\u00e1t\u201c, aby zv\u00fd\u0161ila vklad a\u00a0dos\u00e1hla kompromisu.\u00a0Zd\u00e1 se mi, \u017ee nyn\u00ed rychle roste\u00a0riziko eskalace na \u00farove\u0148 tot\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lky. Tohle je kub\u00e1nsk\u00e1 raketov\u00e1 krize.<\/em>\u00a0 \u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Kdo jsou dnes na\u0161i p\u0159irozen\u00ed spojenci? A\u00a0jak jim m\u016f\u017eete v\u011b\u0159it?<\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Sergey Karaganov:<\/strong>\u00a0V\u011bt\u0161ina sv\u011bta n\u00e1s nep\u0159\u00edmo nebo p\u0159\u00edmo podporuje. Proti n\u00e1m stoj\u00ed\u00a0velk\u00fd Z\u00e1pad, kter\u00fd se tak\u00e9 d\u0159\u00edve nebo pozd\u011bji za\u010dne hroutit<\/em>. M\u00e1me za sebou obrovsk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed zem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 t\u011b\u0161\u00ed, \u017ee jsme podkopali a\u00a0podkop\u00e1v\u00e1me nadvl\u00e1du Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f a\u00a0Z\u00e1padu. V\u011bt\u0161ina zem\u00ed sv\u011bta je p\u0159ipravena k\u00a0tomu, aby s\u00a0n\u00e1mi komunikovaly a\u00a0spolupracovaly. Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b je t\u0159eba vz\u00edt v\u00a0\u00favahu jejich st\u00e1le v\u00fdraznou z\u00e1vislost na struktu\u0159e ekonomick\u00fdch vztah\u016f, kter\u00e1 byla cel\u00e9mu sv\u011btu vnucena v\u00a0letech z\u00e1padn\u00ed nadvl\u00e1dy. Nejprve v\u00a0nesov\u011btsk\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b a\u00a0pot\u00e9 ve sv\u011bt\u011b po\u00a0rozpadu Sov\u011btsk\u00e9ho svazu. Proto je v\u00fdstup z\u00a0tohoto syst\u00e9mu drah\u00fd a\u00a0vy\u017eaduje \u010das. Ale v\u00a0geopolitick\u00e9m boji m\u00e1me d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 siln\u00e9 str\u00e1nky.\u00a0V minul\u00e9m soupe\u0159en\u00ed s\u00a0USA a\u00a0Z\u00e1padem jsme m\u011bli obrovsk\u00e9 z\u00e1vazky.<\/em>\u00a0Nap\u0159\u00edklad takzvan\u00ed spojenci z\u00a0v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evropy byli draz\u00ed a\u00a0nespolehliv\u00ed. Co\u017e se rychle vyjasnilo. Utratili jsme monstr\u00f3zn\u00ed pen\u00edze za socialistick\u00e9 orientace re\u017eim\u016f ve t\u0159et\u00edm sv\u011bt\u011b. A\u00a0nakonec jsme m\u011bli nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 vztahy s\u00a0\u010c\u00ednou. Nyn\u00ed m\u00e1me s\u00a0\u010c\u00ednou, kter\u00e1 je ji\u017e druh\u00e1, a\u00a0brzy bude prvn\u00ed mocnost\u00ed na sv\u011bt\u011b, vztahy, kter\u00e9 jsou p\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 a\u00a0t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 spojeneck\u00e9. M\u00e1me v\u00fdborn\u00e9 vztahy se sv\u011btovou velmoc\u00ed \u2013 Indi\u00ed. Proto m\u016f\u017eeme b\u00fdt v\u00a0klidu ohledn\u011b situace, ve kter\u00e9 \u017eijeme. Douf\u00e1m, \u017ee i\u00a0na Z\u00e1pad\u011b jednou pochop\u00ed, \u017ee zoufal\u00fd boj o\u00a0pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed dominance, kter\u00fd je prov\u00e1zen ztr\u00e1tou pozic, nem\u00e1 smysl. Te\u010f doufaj\u00ed, \u017ee vy\u0159ad\u00ed Rusko, vy\u0159ad\u00ed pivota, na kter\u00e9m je z\u00a0velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti zalo\u017een \u201ene Z\u00e1pad\u201c.<\/p>\n

Existuje takov\u00fd zn\u00e1m\u00fd v\u00fdraz: \u201cAngli\u010danka se posere.\u201d N\u011bkdy je p\u0159ipisov\u00e1n Suvorovovi. Teprve nyn\u00ed je tato \u201eAngli\u010danka\u201c tak\u00e9 kolektivn\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b kolektivn\u00edho Z\u00e1padu. M\u00e1 Rusko na takovou \u201eAngli\u010danku\u201c co odpov\u011bd\u011bt?<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sergej Karaganov:<\/strong>\u00a0Mysl\u00edm, \u017ee bychom m\u011bli odpov\u011bd\u011bt pohrdav\u00fdm ml\u010den\u00edm. A\u0165 serou. My bychom se m\u011bli ve v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed m\u00ed\u0159e v\u011bnovat nikoliv tomu, \u017ee serou, ale tomu, co d\u011bl\u00e1me my sami. V\u017edycky budou sr\u00e1t, dokud budou existovat. Hlavn\u00ed, co bychom si m\u011bli zapamatovat, je nenechat se \u201eun\u00e9st\u201c bojem s\u00a0t\u011bmi, kte\u0159\u00ed serou, ale\u00a0pod\u00edlet se na zvelebov\u00e1n\u00ed vlastn\u00ed zem\u011b.\u00a0<\/strong>V\u010detn\u011b, a\u00a0p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm, opakuji, v\u00fdchodn\u00edch oblast\u00ed Ruska. K\u00a0tomu je t\u0159eba na ur\u010ditou dobu vstoupit do \u201epevnosti\u201c Rusko, otev\u0159en\u00e9 spolupr\u00e1ci s\u00a0t\u011bmi, s\u00a0nimi\u017e bychom cht\u011bli a\u00a0m\u016f\u017eeme spolupracovat, ale uzav\u0159en\u00e9 v\u016f\u010di t\u011bm, kdo \u0161kod\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Globalizace nyn\u00ed vytvo\u0159ila jak\u00fdsi obraz \u201esv\u011btov\u00e9ho \u010dlov\u011bka\u201c. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee nem\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dnou st\u00e1tn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161nost, nem\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd vztah k\u00a0vlasti. Zm\u011bn\u00ed z\u00a0va\u0161eho pohledu ud\u00e1losti na Ukrajin\u011b tento trend?<\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Sergej Karaganov<\/strong>:\u00a0Globalizace vytvo\u0159ila a\u00a0po\u00a0desetilet\u00ed rozv\u00edjela, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm na Z\u00e1pad\u011b, \u010dlov\u011bka, kter\u00fd ztr\u00e1c\u00ed kontakt se svou vlast\u00ed.<\/em>\u00a0Na druhou stranu globalizace z\u00e1rove\u0148 vytvo\u0159ila\u00a0velkou vrstvu lid\u00ed, kte\u0159\u00ed obecn\u011b odm\u00edtaj\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00ed lidsk\u00e9 hodnoty.\u00a0<\/em>Nyn\u00ed ji\u017e 5-6 let prob\u00edh\u00e1 rychl\u00fd proces ekonomick\u00e9 deglobalizace.<\/strong>\u00a0B\u011bhem covidu velmi prudce zes\u00edlila. Ukrajinsk\u00e1 krize tento proces je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce katalyzuje. Mysl\u00edm, \u017ee tito \u201esv\u011btov\u00ed lid\u00e9\u201c nemaj\u00ed v\u00a0bl\u00edzk\u00e9 budoucnosti \u017e\u00e1dnou budoucnost. Ztrat\u00ed p\u016fdu pod nohama jak tady, tak ve zbytku sv\u011bta. Do pop\u0159ed\u00ed se dostanou n\u00e1rodn\u00ed s\u00edly, n\u00e1rodn\u00ed v\u016fdci, n\u00e1rodn\u00ed z\u00e1jmy, n\u00e1rodn\u00ed hodnoty. Nyn\u00ed i\u00a0my sv\u00fdmi akcemi na Ukrajin\u011b p\u0159isp\u00edv\u00e1me k\u00a0n\u00e1vratu sv\u011bta z\u00a0virtu\u00e1ln\u00edho a\u00a0glob\u00e1ln\u00edho k\u00a0re\u00e1ln\u00e9mu a\u00a0n\u00e1rodn\u00edmu.<\/p>\n

Evropan\u00e9, nap\u0159\u00edklad ve Francii, jsou nyn\u00ed prakticky od\u0159\u00edznuti od jak\u00fdchkoli alternativn\u00edch, neproz\u00e1padn\u00edch informac\u00ed. Co se z\u00a0va\u0161eho pohledu stane s\u00a0kdysi jednotn\u00fdmi glob\u00e1ln\u00edmi informa\u010dn\u00edmi s\u00edt\u011bmi?<\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Sergey Karaganov:\u00a0<\/strong>Nyn\u00ed prob\u00edhaj\u00ed procesy zn\u00e1rod\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed internetu. Pokusy Z\u00e1padu uvalit na n\u00e1s informa\u010dn\u00ed blok\u00e1du tento proces jen urychl\u00ed. Bude rozdrcen. To lze \u0159\u00edci s\u00a0ho\u0159kost\u00ed. D\u00e1 se o\u00a0tom mluvit s\u00a0radost\u00ed. Ale to je objektivn\u00ed proces. Mysl\u00edm, \u017ee stejn\u011b jako velmi brzy dojde k\u00a0rozd\u011blen\u00ed ob\u0159\u00edch digit\u00e1ln\u00edch spole\u010dnost\u00ed. Proto\u017ee je zcela z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee budou v\u00a0t\u00e9 \u010di\u00a0on\u00e9 m\u00ed\u0159e zn\u00e1rodn\u011bny. Informa\u010dn\u00ed prostor je: a) zn\u00e1rodn\u011bn; b) p\u0159est\u00e1v\u00e1 b\u00fdt spolehliv\u00fdm zdrojem informac\u00ed.\u00a0<\/strong>To se d\u011bje u\u017e dlouho. Zd\u00e1 se mi, \u017ee pr\u00e1v\u011b nyn\u00ed prob\u00edh\u00e1 velmi zaj\u00edmav\u00fd proces souvisej\u00edc\u00ed s\u00a0t\u00edm, \u017ee mno\u017estv\u00ed informac\u00ed \u010di\u00a0dezinformac\u00ed, kter\u00e9 ka\u017ed\u00fd \u010dlov\u011bk dost\u00e1v\u00e1, vede ke zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed hodnoty \u00farovn\u011b lidsk\u00e9 inteligence, inteligence a\u00a0intuice, nikoli jen znalosti. Nemysl\u00edm si, \u017ee um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence m\u016f\u017ee nahradit \u010dlov\u011bka. Na Z\u00e1pad\u011b se sna\u017e\u00ed Rusko informa\u010dn\u011b izolovat, a\u00a0proto\u017ee jde tak\u00e9 o\u00a0skute\u010dnou soci\u00e1ln\u00ed a\u00a0mor\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdzvu nov\u00e9 mor\u00e1ln\u00ed atmosf\u00e9\u0159e, kterou elity v\u011bt\u0161iny z\u00e1padn\u00edch zem\u00ed v\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech vytvo\u0159ily. jsme norm\u00e1ln\u00ed.\u00a0Jsme n\u00e1rodn\u00ed. Jsme pro suverenitu. Jsme pro l\u00e1sku mezi mu\u017eem a\u00a0\u017eenou. Proto jsme ji\u017e byli zablokov\u00e1ni a\u00a0nyn\u00ed se sna\u017e\u00ed blokovat je\u0161t\u011b siln\u011bji.<\/em><\/p>\n

Linie Internacion\u00e1ly je dob\u0159e zn\u00e1m\u00e1 \u2013 \u201ezni\u010d\u00edme cel\u00fd sv\u011bt n\u00e1sil\u00ed do z\u00e1klad\u016f, a\u00a0pak\u2026\u201c. P\u0159edpokl\u00e1dejme, \u017ee se n\u00e1m poda\u0159\u00ed zni\u010dit ten sv\u011bt n\u00e1sil\u00ed, unipol\u00e1rn\u00ed, kter\u00fd vytvo\u0159ili Ameri\u010dan\u00e9. A\u00a0co bude d\u00e1l?<\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Sergej Karaganov:\u00a0<\/strong>Dojde k\u00a0\u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e9mu n\u00e1vratu normality, k\u00a0norm\u00e1ln\u00edm hodnot\u00e1m.\u00a0<\/em>V Rusku jsme je neodm\u00edtli. O\u00a0kontur\u00e1ch budoucnosti. Mysl\u00edm, \u017ee pokud sv\u011bt nesklouzne do v\u0161eobecn\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, pak to bude budoucnost skupin st\u00e1t\u016f a\u00a0jednotliv\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f. Jednodu\u0161e nep\u0159edv\u00edd\u00e1m budoucnost sjednocen\u00e9 Evropy. USA, mysl\u00edm, se budou rozv\u00edjet, i\u00a0kdy\u017e ztrat\u00ed sv\u00e9 pozice. V\u00a0Asii se v\u00a0tichosti vytvo\u0159\u00ed nov\u00fd st\u0159ed sv\u011bta, podm\u00edn\u011bn\u011b \u201eVelk\u00e1 Eurasie\u201c, ke kter\u00e9mu se, douf\u00e1m, p\u0159ipoj\u00edme a\u00a0zanech\u00e1me za sebou \u201epetrovskou\u201c str\u00e1nku na\u0161ich d\u011bjin. Dostali jsme hodn\u011b z\u00a0Evropy. M\u011bli bychom j\u00ed b\u00fdt vd\u011b\u010dn\u00ed. Ale u\u017e si od n\u00ed nem\u00e1me skoro nic vz\u00edt. A\u00a0vid\u00edme to nyn\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b mor\u00e1ln\u00ed, politick\u00e9 a\u00a0ekonomick\u00e9 sf\u00e9ry. Po\u00a0p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00e9 mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed krize douf\u00e1m, \u017ee najdeme nov\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti pro spolupr\u00e1ci s\u00a0evropsk\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty. Jsou to soused\u00e9, vr\u00e1t\u00ed se do norm\u00e1lu. A\u00a0to znamen\u00e1, \u017ee ty prvky v\u00a0jejich kultu\u0159e, kter\u00e9 n\u00e1s spojuj\u00ed, budou obnoveny. Abychom se ale do\u017eili tak z\u00e1\u0159n\u00e9 budoucnosti, je t\u0159eba se vyhnout termonukle\u00e1rn\u00ed katastrof\u011b, d\u016fstojn\u011b sn\u00e1\u0161et za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00edc\u00ed pot\u00ed\u017ee a\u00a0zabr\u00e1nit rozkolu spole\u010dnosti.\u00a0Budeme m\u00edt tvrd\u00fd politick\u00fd re\u017eim a\u00a0jinou ekonomiku. Mu\u017e se mus\u00ed kone\u010dn\u011b pok\u0159i\u017eovat. Kohout kloval.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Autor:\u00a0Vladim\u00edr Ponomarev<\/strong>, zdroj:\u00a0Rossijskaja Gazeta<\/strong>,<\/a>\u00a0p\u0159eklad\u00a0St. Hroch\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Podle n\u00e1zoru Sergeje Karaganova, doktora historick\u00fdch v\u011bd, \u010destn\u00e9ho p\u0159edsedy Rady pro zahrani\u010dn\u00ed a\u00a0obrannou politiku, se…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":10091,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,371,1052,22,365],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10090"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10090"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10090\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10092,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10090\/revisions\/10092"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10091"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10090"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10090"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10090"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}