{"id":100531,"date":"2026-02-28T00:18:36","date_gmt":"2026-02-27T23:18:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=100531"},"modified":"2026-02-27T15:20:25","modified_gmt":"2026-02-27T14:20:25","slug":"lorenzo-maria-pacini-to-je-bomba-spinava-bomba","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/02\/28\/lorenzo-maria-pacini-to-je-bomba-spinava-bomba\/","title":{"rendered":"Lorenzo Maria Pacini: To je bomba, \u0161pinav\u00e1 bomba!"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Evropsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed je jasnou, z\u0159ejmou a jednozna\u010dnou konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed hrozbou pro glob\u00e1ln\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost.<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

\u0160\u00edlenstv\u00ed nem\u00e1 konce<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

V kontextu rusko-ukrajinsk\u00e9ho konfliktu znovu rozpoutala prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed Slu\u017eby zahrani\u010dn\u00ed rozv\u011bdky Rusk\u00e9 federace (SVR) mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed debatu, kter\u00e1 se m\u011bs\u00edce zab\u00fdvala jin\u00fdmi velmi citliv\u00fdmi ot\u00e1zkami, o riziku dal\u0161\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 eskalace a p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm o mo\u017enosti, \u017ee Ukrajina bude vybavena jadern\u00fdmi zbran\u011bmi. Podle zpr\u00e1v tiskov\u00e9 kancel\u00e1\u0159e rusk\u00e9 rozv\u011bdky Spojen\u00e9 kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed a Francie ve sv\u00fdch intern\u00edch hodnocen\u00edch uznaly, \u017ee je nemo\u017en\u00e9, aby ukrajinsk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly za sou\u010dasn\u00fdch podm\u00ednek konfliktu dos\u00e1hly rozhodn\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed nad Ruskem. Politick\u00e9 a strategick\u00e9 elity v Lond\u00fdn\u011b a Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017ei v\u0161ak \u00fadajn\u011b nejsou ochotny akceptovat mo\u017enost ukrajinsk\u00e9 por\u00e1\u017eky a v d\u016fsledku toho \u00fastupu sv\u00e9ho geopolitick\u00e9ho vlivu ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evrop\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle rekonstrukce SVR se prosazuje my\u0161lenka poskytnout Kyjevu jakousi \u201erozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed zbra\u0148\u201c \u2013\u00a0<\/span>wunderwaffe<\/span><\/em>\u00a0\u2013 schopnou zm\u011bnit rovnov\u00e1hu na m\u00edst\u011b a pos\u00edlit vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00ed pozici Ukrajiny s ohledem na mo\u017en\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed o ukon\u010den\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch akc\u00ed. Vyvolan\u00e1 hypot\u00e9za se t\u00fdk\u00e1 transferu skute\u010dn\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, nebo alternativn\u011b radiologick\u00e9ho za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed b\u011b\u017en\u011b ozna\u010dovan\u00e9ho jako \u201e\u0161pinav\u00e1 bomba\u201c. Takov\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 by p\u0159edstavoval kvalitativn\u00ed skok v povaze konfliktu a prom\u011bnil by ho v krizi potenci\u00e1ln\u011b glob\u00e1ln\u00edch rozm\u011br\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ano, pochopili jste spr\u00e1vn\u011b. S t\u00edm, jak SMO vstupuje do sv\u00e9ho \u010dtvrt\u00e9ho roku, po nevypo\u010ditateln\u00e9 s\u00e9rii diplomatick\u00fdch, politick\u00fdch, ekonomick\u00fdch a vojensk\u00fdch ne\u00fasp\u011bch\u016f, z\u00e1padn\u00ed blok nad\u00e1le tou\u017e\u00ed po rozpout\u00e1n\u00ed t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky v Evrop\u011b. \u0160\u00edlen\u00e9 veden\u00ed NATO, hlavy st\u00e1t\u016f star\u00fdch evropsk\u00fdch mocnost\u00ed, p\u00e1ni nekone\u010dn\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, pokra\u010duj\u00ed ve sv\u00e9m projektu. Takov\u00e1 fakta jednou bude muset n\u011bkdo posoudit.<\/span><\/p>\n

V rusk\u00e9m dokumentu je obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b v\u00fdznamn\u00fd odkaz na postoj N\u011bmecka, kter\u00e9 se \u201emoud\u0159e\u201c odm\u00edtlo \u00fa\u010dastnit se toho, co je ozna\u010dov\u00e1no za \u201enebezpe\u010dn\u00e9 dobrodru\u017estv\u00ed\u201c. Tento prvek nazna\u010duje existenci rozd\u00edl\u016f na z\u00e1padn\u00ed front\u011b, pokud jde o m\u00edru zapojen\u00ed a zp\u016fsoby podpory Kyjeva, jako\u017e i o limity, za nimi\u017e by se vojensk\u00e1 pomoc mohla zm\u011bnit v p\u0159\u00edmou a nekontrolovatelnou \u00fa\u010dast v konfliktu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle SVR se Lond\u00fdn a Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017e zab\u00fdvaj\u00ed zkoum\u00e1n\u00edm opera\u010dn\u00edch modalit, jak Ukrajin\u011b poskytnout nejen zbra\u0148, ale i souvisej\u00edc\u00ed odpalovac\u00ed syst\u00e9my. Ano, pochopili jste spr\u00e1vn\u011b, skute\u010dn\u011b zva\u017euj\u00ed kompletn\u00ed bal\u00ed\u010dek. Zejm\u00e9na se hovo\u0159\u00ed o d\u016fv\u011brn\u00e9m transferu evropsk\u00fdch komponent\u016f, technologi\u00ed a know-how, s mo\u017en\u00fdm zv\u00e1\u017een\u00edm francouzsk\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 hlavice TN75 spojen\u00e9 s balistickou raketou M51.1 odpalovanou z ponorek. Operace tohoto druhu, pokud by byla potvrzena, by zahrnovala technick\u00e9 a pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 zapojen\u00ed na nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farovni a vyvolala by z\u00e1sadn\u00ed ot\u00e1zky ohledn\u011b stability mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho re\u017eimu ne\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u011bkter\u00e9 mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed probl\u00e9my<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

A te\u010f si to ujasn\u011bme: kdo na sv\u011bt\u011b si doopravdy p\u0159eje eskalaci? Kdo z n\u00ed bude m\u00edt prosp\u011bch? \u017d\u00e1dn\u00e1 zem\u011b s v\u016fdcem norm\u00e1ln\u00edho psychologick\u00e9ho profilu by si n\u011bco takov\u00e9ho nikdy nep\u0159\u00e1la. V\u00e1lka prosp\u00edv\u00e1 jen t\u011bm, kdo prod\u00e1vaj\u00ed zbran\u011b, a nikomu jin\u00e9mu. A to znamen\u00e1 opakovan\u00e9 vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00e9rie incident\u016f, nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed a nep\u0159\u00edjemnost\u00ed nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d p\u016flkou planety a mo\u017en\u00e1 i v\u00edce.<\/span><\/p>\n

To p\u0159edstavuje probl\u00e9my pro mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed vztahy. \u00dast\u0159edn\u00edm referen\u010dn\u00edm bodem v t\u00e9to oblasti je Smlouva o ne\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, kter\u00e1 je pr\u00e1vn\u00edm pil\u00ed\u0159em syst\u00e9mu zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e9ho na prevenci \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed mimo st\u00e1ty ji\u017e uznan\u00e9 za jadern\u00e9 mocnosti. Dod\u00e1vka jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b nebo z\u00e1kladn\u00edch komponent pro jej\u00ed v\u00fdrobu zemi, kter\u00e1 nen\u00ed ofici\u00e1ln\u011b vybavena takovou kapacitou, by p\u0159edstavovala jasn\u00e9 poru\u0161en\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch z\u00e1vazk\u016f. Samotn\u00e9 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed rusk\u00fdch tajn\u00fdch slu\u017eeb zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee britsk\u00e1 a francouzsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da si uv\u011bdomuj\u00ed v\u00fdznam takov\u00e9ho poru\u0161en\u00ed, jako\u017e i rizika spojen\u00e1 s destabilizac\u00ed cel\u00e9ho glob\u00e1ln\u00edho re\u017eimu ne\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

V t\u00e9to souvislosti je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee z\u00e1padn\u00ed diplomatick\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed by se zam\u011b\u0159ilo na to, aby se jak\u00e9koli z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed jadern\u00fdch kapacit Kyjevem jevilo jako v\u00fdsledek nez\u00e1visl\u00e9ho rozvoje Ukrajiny. Takov\u00e1 strategie zatajov\u00e1n\u00ed, pokud by byla skute\u010dn\u011b uplat\u0148ov\u00e1na, by sv\u011bd\u010dila o pov\u011bdom\u00ed o z\u00e1va\u017enosti pr\u00e1vn\u00edch a politick\u00fdch d\u016fsledk\u016f operace. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b krom\u011b obvin\u011bn\u00ed a pop\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed vy\u017eaduje pouh\u00e9 p\u0159ipomenut\u00ed takov\u00e9ho sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed zamy\u0161len\u00ed nad syst\u00e9mov\u00fdmi d\u016fsledky dal\u0161\u00ed eskalace. Proto\u017ee ano, mluv\u00edme o syst\u00e9mu: b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika minut by byl cel\u00fd sv\u011bt v pohotovosti a spustil by se \u0159et\u011bzec ud\u00e1lost\u00ed nep\u0159edstaviteln\u00fdch rozm\u011br\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jadern\u00fd rozm\u011br ve skute\u010dnosti nep\u0159edstavuje prost\u00e9 kvantitativn\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed dostupn\u00e9 palebn\u00e9 s\u00edly, ale kvalitativn\u00ed zm\u011bnu v povaze konfliktu. Zaveden\u00ed atomov\u00e9 zbran\u011b \u2013 i kdyby jen jako odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed prost\u0159edek \u2013 by radik\u00e1ln\u011b prom\u011bnilo evropskou strategickou krajinu a znovu by aktivovalo dynamiku p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 konfrontace mezi jadern\u00fdmi mocnostmi, kterou konec studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b zm\u00edrnil. Riziko by se neomezovalo pouze na Ukrajinu, ale ovlivnilo by cel\u00fd kontinent s d\u016fsledky pro kolektivn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost, politickou stabilitu a d\u016fv\u011bryhodnost multilater\u00e1ln\u00edch instituc\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z diplomatick\u00e9ho hlediska by dod\u00e1vky jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed Ukrajin\u011b byly mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b po\u0161etil\u00fdm rozhodnut\u00edm, kter\u00e9 by si zaslou\u017eilo z\u00e1pis do d\u011bjin. Nen\u00e1vratn\u011b by ohrozily mo\u017enost d\u016fv\u011bryhodn\u00e9ho zprost\u0159edkov\u00e1n\u00ed, ztvrdily by postoje a podn\u00edtily by vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 konfrontace se Z\u00e1padem jako celkem (pokud by to n\u011bkdo je\u0161t\u011b nepochopil). Pro Z\u00e1pad by to byl obrovsk\u00fd autog\u00f3l, proto\u017ee by to d\u00e1le podn\u00edtilo narativ, \u017ee se konflikt postupn\u011b stal z\u00e1stupnou v\u00e1lkou mezi NATO a Ruskem, a pos\u00edlilo by to r\u00e9toriku syst\u00e9mov\u00e9 konfrontace mezi znep\u0159\u00e1telen\u00fdmi bloky. Dal\u0161\u00ed potvrzen\u00ed, \u017ee tomu tak v\u017edycky bylo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na strategicko-vojensk\u00e9 \u00farovni by nav\u00edc dostupnost jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b v aktivn\u00edm v\u00e1l\u010di\u0161ti exponenci\u00e1ln\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161ila riziko chybn\u00fdch v\u00fdpo\u010dt\u016f, nehod nebo ukvapen\u00fdch rozhodnut\u00ed ve vysoce napjat\u00fdch situac\u00edch. Jadern\u00e9 odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed vy\u017eaduje kontroln\u00ed mechanismy, stabiln\u00ed velen\u00ed a spolehlivou komunikaci mezi stranami: podm\u00ednky, kter\u00e9 je obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 zaru\u010dit ve v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9m kontextu charakterizovan\u00e9m rychl\u00fdmi opera\u010dn\u00edmi zm\u011bnami a siln\u00fdm politick\u00fdm a medi\u00e1ln\u00edm tlakem. Pou\u017eit\u00ed jadern\u00e9ho nebo radiologick\u00e9ho za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, by\u0165 n\u00e1hodn\u00e9, by m\u011blo nevy\u010d\u00edsliteln\u00e9 humanit\u00e1rn\u00ed, environment\u00e1ln\u00ed a geopolitick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Chcete to v\u0161echno vyj\u00e1d\u0159it jednodu\u0161e? Zde je p\u0159eklad: Rusko by m\u011blo pr\u00e1vo podniknout preventivn\u00ed kroky k ochran\u011b sv\u00e9ho vlastn\u00edho p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed. Mus\u00edme k tomu dod\u00e1vat v\u00edc?<\/span><\/p>\n

Vyhl\u00eddka na \u201e\u0161pinavou bombu\u201c, a\u010dkoli se technicky li\u0161\u00ed od strategick\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b, by byla z politick\u00e9ho hlediska nem\u00e9n\u011b destabilizuj\u00edc\u00ed. Pou\u017eit\u00ed radioaktivn\u00edho materi\u00e1lu k \u00fato\u010dn\u00fdm \u00fa\u010del\u016fm by zavedlo dimenzi teroru a kontaminace, kter\u00e1 by bez rozd\u00edlu postihla civiln\u00ed obyvatelstvo a \u00fazem\u00ed a podn\u00edtila by spir\u00e1lu odvety a protiodvety, kterou by bylo obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 kontrolovat. I v tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by byl p\u0159ekro\u010den psychologick\u00fd a politick\u00fd pr\u00e1h eskalace, a to s nevratn\u00fdmi n\u00e1sledky, bu\u010fte si jisti.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 takov\u00e9 zpr\u00e1v\u011b by se takzvan\u00e9 \u201emezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed spole\u010denstv\u00ed\u201c, tolik vychvalovan\u00e9 z\u00e1padn\u00edmi zem\u011bmi, m\u011blo sjednotit a uvalit na Spojen\u00e9 kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed, Francii a Ukrajinu p\u0159\u00edsn\u00e9 sankce, alespo\u0148 preventivn\u011b, a podrobit tyto st\u00e1ty i N\u011bmecko podrobn\u00e9mu vy\u0161et\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed. My v\u0161ak ji\u017e v\u00edme, \u017ee se tak nestane. Pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je, \u017ee jadern\u00e1 doktr\u00edna bude p\u0159eps\u00e1na podle nov\u00fdch rovnov\u00e1h, proto\u017ee z\u00e1ruky, kter\u00e9 byly zavedeny na ochranu velmi k\u0159ehk\u00e9ho, ale st\u00e1le funguj\u00edc\u00edho status quo, byly nakonec poru\u0161eny. A byly to samotn\u00e9 evropsk\u00e9 zem\u011b, kter\u00e9 s nimi manipulovaly.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lorenzo Maria\u00a0<\/span>Pacini<\/span><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Evropsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed je jasnou, z\u0159ejmou a jednozna\u010dnou konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed hrozbou pro glob\u00e1ln\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost. \u0160\u00edlenstv\u00ed nem\u00e1 konce…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":100532,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,2483,26,365],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100531"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=100531"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100531\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/100532"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=100531"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=100531"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=100531"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}