{"id":100454,"date":"2026-02-26T04:49:13","date_gmt":"2026-02-26T03:49:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=100454"},"modified":"2026-02-26T04:49:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-26T03:49:13","slug":"i-po-ctyrech-tydnech-priprav-jsou-trumpovy-moznosti-ohledne-iranu-stale-stejne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/02\/26\/i-po-ctyrech-tydnech-priprav-jsou-trumpovy-moznosti-ohledne-iranu-stale-stejne\/","title":{"rendered":"I po \u010dty\u0159ech t\u00fddnech p\u0159\u00edprav jsou Trumpovy mo\u017enosti ohledn\u011b \u00cdr\u00e1nu st\u00e1le stejn\u00e9"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

P\u0159ed \u010dty\u0159mi t\u00fddny americk\u00fd prezident Donald Trump pohrozil \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 republice dal\u0161\u00edm \u00fatokem kv\u016fli jej\u00edmu jadern\u00e9mu programu.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Byla to chyba, proto\u017ee, jak jsem vysv\u011btlil,\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1n nen\u00ed snadn\u00fd c\u00edl<\/a>:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n je v\u0161ak tak\u00e9 p\u0159ipraven. Pos\u00edlil sv\u00e9 raketov\u00e9 s\u00edly. Sl\u00edbil, \u017ee je pou\u017eije proti americk\u00fdm pozic\u00edm na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b a proti Izraeli jako odvetu za jak\u00fdkoli \u00fatok. Sl\u00edbil tak\u00e9 uzav\u0159\u00edt Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv. T\u00edmto pr\u016flivem proud\u00ed velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st sv\u011btov\u00fdch dod\u00e1vek ropy. Je tak\u00e9 mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee dojde k selektivn\u00edmu uzav\u0159en\u00ed, kter\u00e9 by nap\u0159\u00edklad umo\u017enilo pr\u016fjezd tanker\u016fm sm\u011b\u0159uj\u00edc\u00edm do \u010c\u00edny. Ale i \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e9 dlouhodob\u00e9 uzav\u0159en\u00ed by n\u00e1hle zv\u00fd\u0161ilo ceny ropy a plynu po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b. \u0160ance republik\u00e1n\u016f na v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed v pr\u016fb\u011b\u017en\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch by se sn\u00ed\u017eily.<\/em><\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00ed arab\u0161t\u00ed spojenci USA na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b odm\u00edtli \u00fa\u010dastnit se jak\u00e9hokoli dobrodru\u017estv\u00ed proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie, Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty a Katar v\u00fdslovn\u011b prohl\u00e1sily, \u017ee nedovol\u00ed operace USA proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu z jejich \u00fazem\u00ed nebo p\u0159es jejich \u00fazem\u00ed.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u2026<\/em><\/p>\n

Je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee vznikaj\u00edc\u00ed konflikt bude tak kr\u00e1tk\u00fd jako ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 12denn\u00ed kampa\u0148. Mohl by snadno eskalovat do vy\u010derp\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00e1lky. \u2026<\/em><\/p>\n

Trump chce dal\u0161\u00ed symbolick\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed. Jako obvykle za\u010dal obrovskou hrozbou v nad\u011bji, \u017ee z\u00edsk\u00e1 men\u0161\u00ed \u00fastupek, kter\u00fd mu umo\u017en\u00ed vycouvat. Pochybuji, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n je ochoten mu d\u00e1t to, co po\u017eaduje.<\/em><\/p>\n

Od t\u00e9 doby USA pos\u00edlily svou protivzdu\u0161nou obranu v t\u00e9to oblasti a zdvojn\u00e1sobily po\u010det leteck\u00fdch \u00fato\u010dn\u00fdch sil na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b.<\/p>\n

Podle americk\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho think-tanku je to v\u0161ak st\u00e1le\u00a0zdaleka nedostate\u010dn\u00e9 k udr\u017een\u00ed kampan\u011b<\/a>:<\/p>\n

S\u00edly jsou schopn\u00e9 prov\u00e9st trestn\u00e9 \u00fadery na \u00cdr\u00e1n a chr\u00e1nit spojence a partnery USA v regionu. Chyb\u00ed jim v\u0161ak mari\u0148\u00e1ci, speci\u00e1ln\u00ed jednotky (SOF) pro razie nebo pozemn\u00ed operace a logistika pro dlouhodobou leteckou kampa\u0148.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u2026<\/em><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 \u00farove\u0148 sil je srovnateln\u00e1 s \u00farovn\u00ed pou\u017eitou v operaci Desert Fox, kter\u00e1 zahrnovala \u010dty\u0159i dny trestn\u00fdch \u00fader\u016f na dlouhou vzd\u00e1lenost. \u2026<\/em><\/li>\n
  2. Velk\u00fd po\u010det n\u00e1kladn\u00edch letadel (C-17 a C-5M) a tanker\u016f (KC-135 a KC-46A) p\u0159esunut\u00fdch na Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod nenasv\u011bd\u010duje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9mu nasazen\u00ed pozemn\u00edch sil. \u2026<\/em><\/li>\n
  3. Americk\u00e9 s\u00edly nemaj\u00ed speci\u00e1ln\u00ed jednotky a pozemn\u00ed jednotky pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 k prov\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed n\u00e1jezd\u016f nebo operac\u00ed na pevnin\u011b. \u2026<\/em><\/li>\n
  4. Dostupn\u00e9 s\u00edly jsou tak\u00e9 nedostate\u010dn\u00e9 pro zm\u011bnu re\u017eimu nad r\u00e1mec omezen\u00fdch c\u00edlen\u00fdch \u00fader\u016f. \u2026<\/em><\/li>\n
  5. A kone\u010dn\u011b,\u00a0nen\u00ed dostatek sil pro prodlou\u017eenou, n\u011bkolik t\u00fddn\u016f trvaj\u00edc\u00ed leteckou kampa\u0148<\/b>. To by vy\u017eadovalo zna\u010dn\u00e9 logistick\u00e9 pos\u00edlen\u00ed, kter\u00e9 je sice mo\u017en\u00e9, ale zabralo by to dal\u0161\u00ed \u010das. \u2026<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Ostatn\u00ed analytici\u00a0souhlas\u00ed<\/a>\u00a0s t\u00edmto n\u00e1zorem:<\/p>\n

    Izraelsk\u00e1 rozv\u011bdka dosp\u011bla k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee i p\u0159es bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00ed se p\u0159\u00edjezd letadlov\u00e9 lodi USS Gerald R. Ford koncem tohoto t\u00fddne maj\u00ed USA vojenskou kapacitu pouze na \u010dty\u0159i a\u017e p\u011bt dn\u00ed intenzivn\u00edch leteck\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f nebo na t\u00fdden \u00fatok\u016f ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed intenzity, sd\u011blil izraelsk\u00fd rozv\u011bd\u010d\u00edk den\u00edku FT.<\/em><\/p>\n

    Na rozd\u00edl od USA je \u00cdr\u00e1n schopen bojovat po dlouhou dobu a zejm\u00e9na blokovat Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv, co\u017e by m\u011blo glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky, a to po n\u011bkolik m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f.<\/p>\n

    Pos\u00edlen\u00ed americk\u00fdch sil v uplynul\u00e9m m\u011bs\u00edci tedy strategickou rovnov\u00e1hu nezm\u011bnilo<\/b>.<\/p>\n

    \u00cdr\u00e1n m\u00e1 prost\u0159edky k veden\u00ed dlouh\u00e9 v\u00e1lky ve sv\u00e9m bezprost\u0159edn\u00edm sousedstv\u00ed, zat\u00edmco USA jsou z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na logistick\u00e9m \u0159et\u011bzci, jeho\u017e dod\u00e1vky trvaj\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edce.<\/p>\n

    B\u00edl\u00fd d\u016fm, kdy\u017e na\u0159\u00eddil pos\u00edlen\u00ed, se myln\u011b domn\u00edval, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n pod tlakem\u00a0kapituluje<\/a>:<\/p>\n

    Trump\u016fv zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed vyslanec v regionu, Steve Witkoff, o v\u00edkendu \u0159ekl Fox News, \u017ee prezident je \u201ezv\u011bdav\u00fd\u201c, pro\u010d \u00cdr\u00e1n \u201enekapituloval\u201c p\u0159ed po\u017eadavky USA, vzhledem k hroz\u00edc\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 ofenziv\u011b.<\/em><\/p>\n

    \u201ePro\u010d pod t\u00edmto tlakem, s takovou n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed silou a moc\u00ed v t\u00e9to oblasti, pro\u010d za n\u00e1mi nep\u0159i\u0161li a ne\u0159ekli: \u201aProhla\u0161ujeme, \u017ee nechceme zbran\u011b, tak\u017ee tady je to, co jsme p\u0159ipraveni ud\u011blat\u2018? A p\u0159esto je docela t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 je k tomu p\u0159im\u011bt,\u201c \u0159ekl.<\/em><\/p>\n

    Kdyby se Witkoff a Trump obt\u011b\u017eovali sezn\u00e1mit se alespo\u0148 trochu s p\u011btitis\u00edciletou slavnou histori\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu, v\u011bd\u011bli by, \u017ee vyhro\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed jeho obyvatel\u016fm nefunguje:<\/p>\n

    \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Abbas Araghchi reagoval na soci\u00e1ln\u00edch m\u00e9di\u00edch slovy: \u201eZaj\u00edm\u00e1 v\u00e1s, pro\u010d se nevzd\u00e1v\u00e1me? Proto\u017ee jsme \u00cdr\u00e1nci.\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n

    Trump\u016fv bluf byl odhalen. Nyn\u00ed se nach\u00e1z\u00ed v nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00e9 situaci, kdy mus\u00ed ustoupit a \u010delit kritice sionistick\u00e9 lobby, nebo zni\u010dit sv\u00e9 prezidentstv\u00ed \u00fatokem na \u00cdr\u00e1n.<\/p>\n

    \u00danikem informac\u00ed do den\u00edku Washington Post mu americk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da\u00a0nab\u00edz\u00ed \u00fanikovou cestu<\/a>:<\/p>\n

    Zat\u00edmco Trumpova administrativa zva\u017euje \u00fatok na \u00cdr\u00e1n, nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed gener\u00e1l Pentagonu varoval prezidenta Donalda Trumpa a dal\u0161\u00ed \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edky, \u017ee nedostatek kritick\u00e9 munice a nedostate\u010dn\u00e1 podpora ze strany spojenc\u016f v\u00fdrazn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed riziko operace a ohroz\u00ed americk\u00fd person\u00e1l, podle lid\u00ed obezn\u00e1men\u00fdch s intern\u00edmi diskusemi.<\/em><\/p>\n

    Gener\u00e1l Dan Caine, p\u0159edseda Sboru n\u00e1\u010deln\u00edk\u016f \u0161t\u00e1b\u016f, vyj\u00e1d\u0159il sv\u00e9 obavy na sch\u016fzce v B\u00edl\u00e9m dom\u011b minul\u00fd t\u00fdden s Trumpem a jeho nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edmi poradci, uvedli tito lid\u00e9, a varoval, \u017ee jak\u00e1koli v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed operace proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu bude \u010delit v\u00fdzv\u00e1m, proto\u017ee z\u00e1soby munice USA byly v\u00fdznamn\u011b vy\u010derp\u00e1ny pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed obranou Izraele a podporou Ukrajiny ze strany Washingtonu. \u2026<\/em><\/p>\n

    Nedostatek dobr\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch mo\u017enost\u00ed je d\u016fvodem, pro\u010d Trump v\u00e1h\u00e1 s rozhodnut\u00edm zah\u00e1jit dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1lku proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/p>\n

    Ale \u010das b\u011b\u017e\u00ed. Udr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed velk\u00e9 expedi\u010dn\u00ed s\u00edly po cel\u00e9 m\u011bs\u00edce na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b stoj\u00ed spoustu pen\u011bz a zhor\u0161uje jej\u00ed schopnosti.<\/p>\n

    Navzdory posilov\u00e1n\u00ed americk\u00fdch sil se z\u00e1kladn\u00ed strategick\u00e1 situace nezm\u011bnila oproti\u00a0stavu p\u0159ed \u010dty\u0159mi t\u00fddny<\/a>:<\/p>\n

    To [Trumpovi] ponech\u00e1v\u00e1 na v\u00fdb\u011br, zda se zbab\u011ble vycouvat, ani\u017e by dos\u00e1hl v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed, nebo vsadit v\u0161e, v\u010detn\u011b sv\u00e9ho prezidentstv\u00ed, na eskalaci.<\/em><\/p>\n

    K\u00e9\u017e se rozhodne moud\u0159e.<\/em><\/p>\n

    \n

    Despite Four Weeks Of Build-Up Trump\u2019s Choices On Iran Are Still The Same<\/a> vy\u0161el 24.2.2026 na moonofalabama.org<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    P\u0159ed \u010dty\u0159mi t\u00fddny americk\u00fd prezident Donald Trump pohrozil \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 republice dal\u0161\u00edm \u00fatokem kv\u016fli jej\u00edmu…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":100010,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,452,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100454"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=100454"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100454\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/100010"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=100454"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=100454"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=100454"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}