{"id":100388,"date":"2026-02-25T00:28:24","date_gmt":"2026-02-24T23:28:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=100388"},"modified":"2026-02-24T17:52:27","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T16:52:27","slug":"nadchazejici-letecka-a-raketova-valka-s-iranem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/02\/25\/nadchazejici-letecka-a-raketova-valka-s-iranem\/","title":{"rendered":"Nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed leteck\u00e1 a raketov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka s \u00cdr\u00e1nem"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Pokud by vypukla v\u00e1lka, B\u00edl\u00fd d\u016fm pod Trumpem by mohl pot\u0159ebovat v\u00fdchodisko\u2026<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Prezident Trump shrom\u00e1\u017edil na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed koncentraci americk\u00fdch vzdu\u0161n\u00fdch a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch sil od \u00fatoku na Ir\u00e1k v roce 2003.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dan Grazier, vyslou\u017eil\u00fd n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed d\u016fstojn\u00edk a vedouc\u00ed pracovn\u00edk Stimsonova centra, poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b je nyn\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 100 letadel pro dopl\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed paliva za letu \u2013 krom\u011b bojov\u00fdch skupin letadlov\u00fdch lod\u00ed a st\u00edha\u010dek \u2013 co\u017e nazna\u010duje v\u00fdrazn\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed a d\u00e9le trvaj\u00edc\u00ed operaci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro zku\u0161en\u00e9 pozorovatele nazna\u010duje slo\u017een\u00ed \u00fato\u010d\u00edc\u00edch jednotek strategick\u00fd c\u00edl: \u00farove\u0148 destrukce, kter\u00e1 m\u00e1 v\u00e9st k rozpadu \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu a jeho spole\u010dnosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je \u201erozpad\u201c prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm \u00fatok\u016f na d\u00e1lku dosa\u017eiteln\u00fdm politick\u00fdm a vojensk\u00fdm c\u00edlem? Zhrout\u00ed se \u00cdr\u00e1n jako \u201edome\u010dek z karet\u201c pod drtivou t\u00edhou americk\u00fdch a izraelsk\u00fdch leteck\u00fdch a raketov\u00fdch \u00fader\u016f? Odpov\u011bdi jsou nejasn\u00e9, ale politi\u010dt\u00ed a vojen\u0161t\u00ed v\u016fdci, kte\u0159\u00ed zahajuj\u00ed leteck\u00e9 a raketov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, jsou obecn\u011b p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010deni, \u017ee pou\u017eit\u00ed masivn\u00ed palebn\u00e9 s\u00edly z d\u00e1lky bude ohromn\u011b \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u016fvod je jednoduch\u00fd: V analytick\u00e9m \u0161\u00edlenstv\u00ed p\u0159esn\u00e9ho v\u00fdb\u011bru c\u00edl\u016f proti kritick\u00fdm uzl\u016fm nep\u0159\u00edtele \u2013 jeho syst\u00e9m\u016fm, zbran\u00edm a politick\u00e9mu a vojensk\u00e9mu veden\u00ed \u2013 se osoby s rozhodovac\u00ed pravou moc\u00ed st\u00e1vaj\u00ed skute\u010dn\u00fdmi v\u011b\u0159\u00edc\u00edmi. Ve sv\u011bt\u011b, kde pozemn\u00ed jednotky znamenaj\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty, je slib v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm leteck\u00e9 a raketov\u00e9 s\u00edly p\u0159ij\u00edm\u00e1n s vd\u011b\u010dnost\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Postupem \u010dasu se samotn\u00fd proces pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed jev\u00ed tak d\u016fkladn\u00fd a profesion\u00e1ln\u00ed, \u017ee mobilizuje odpor k diplomatick\u00fdm \u0159e\u0161en\u00edm. Omezen\u00ed \u00fatok\u016f na dlouhou vzd\u00e1lenost a mezery ve znalostech pl\u00e1nova\u010d\u016f o nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil\u00e1ch a jejich spojenc\u00edch jsou \u010dasto p\u0159ehl\u00ed\u017eeny nebo bagatelizov\u00e1ny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prezident, ministr v\u00e1lky a jejich nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed vojen\u0161t\u00ed poradci jsou p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010deni, \u017ee leteck\u00e1 a raketov\u00e1 kampa\u0148 donut\u00ed protivn\u00edka pod\u0159\u00eddit se po\u017eadavk\u016fm Washingtonu. Prezidenti se z\u0159\u00eddka zab\u00fdvaj\u00ed detaily vojensk\u00fdch operac\u00ed a politick\u00e1 t\u0159\u00edda ve Washingtonu sotva uzn\u00e1v\u00e1 meze vojensk\u00e9 s\u00edly. Schopnost beztrestn\u011b za\u00fato\u010dit na jin\u00fd st\u00e1t ze vzduchu nebo z mo\u0159e je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u017edy lep\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e diplomacie.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jen m\u00e1lo lid\u00ed s rozhodovac\u00ed pravomoc\u00ed se pt\u00e1, co se stalo b\u011bhem posledn\u00edho pokusu o leteckou a raketovou kampa\u0148. Pokud ano, pl\u00e1nova\u010di je obvykle uji\u0161\u0165uj\u00ed, \u017ee nov\u00e9 technologie a v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed mno\u017estv\u00ed v\u00fdbu\u0161nin zaru\u010d\u00ed \u00fasp\u011bch. S v\u00fdjimkou preventivn\u00edch \u00fader\u016f izraelsk\u00e9ho letectva proti egyptsk\u00e9mu letectvu v roce 1967 v\u0161ak \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 leteck\u00e1 a raketov\u00e1 kampa\u0148 nikdy nedos\u00e1hla skute\u010dn\u011b rozhoduj\u00edc\u00edch v\u00fdsledk\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e se prezident Bill Clinton v lednu 1999 zeptal sv\u00fdch civiln\u00edch a vojensk\u00fdch poradc\u016f, jak dlouho bude leteck\u00e1 kampa\u0148 v Kosovu trvat, dostal odpov\u011b\u010f: \u201eT\u0159i nebo \u010dty\u0159i dny, maxim\u00e1ln\u011b jeden nebo dva t\u00fddny.\u201c Ve skute\u010dnosti leteck\u00e1 kampa\u0148 proti srbsk\u00e9mu st\u00e1tu trvala 78 dn\u00ed.*<\/span><\/p>\n

Srbsk\u00e1 protivzdu\u0161n\u00e1 obrana, poch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed ze 70. let 20. stolet\u00ed, se uk\u00e1zala jako mnohem odoln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e se o\u010dek\u00e1valo. D\u00edky inovativn\u00edmu vyu\u017eit\u00ed radarov\u00e9 technologie se srbsk\u00fdm d\u016fstojn\u00edk\u016fm protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany poda\u0159ilo lokalizovat a sest\u0159elit neviditeln\u00fd letoun Lockheed F-117. Srbsk\u00e1 protivzdu\u0161n\u00e1 obrana nikdy nebyla ohro\u017eena pod 83 procent sv\u00e9 opera\u010dn\u00ed schopnosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

Navzdory intenzivn\u00edmu bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed leteck\u00e1 a raketov\u00e1 kampa\u0148 nedonutila srbskou arm\u00e1du k \u00fastupu z Kosova. Byl to Strobe Talbott, n\u00e1m\u011bstek ministra zahrani\u010d\u00ed USA, kdo let\u011bl do Moskvy a p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dil rusk\u00e9 veden\u00ed, aby ukon\u010dilo podporu Srb\u016f. Bez moskevsk\u00e9 pomoci v podob\u011b paliva, potravin a l\u00e9k\u016f B\u011blehrad dosp\u011bl k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee srbsk\u00e9 obyvatelstvo balk\u00e1nskou zimu nep\u0159e\u017eije.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jedinou jistotou v dne\u0161n\u00edch v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edprav\u00e1ch proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu je, \u017ee vzdu\u0161n\u00e9 a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed s\u00edly shrom\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00e9 na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b zni\u010d\u00ed velkou \u010d\u00e1st \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 kritick\u00e9 infrastruktury, ozbrojen\u00fdch sil a v\u011bdeck\u00e9 a pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny. Jak velk\u00e9 \u0161kody \u00cdr\u00e1n zp\u016fsob\u00ed americk\u00fdm sil\u00e1m a jejich z\u00e1kladn\u00e1m, je obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159edv\u00eddat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mo\u017en\u00e1 je\u0161t\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je ot\u00e1zka, jak Washington ukon\u010d\u00ed leteckou a raketovou v\u00e1lku proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Skon\u010d\u00ed kampa\u0148, pokud \u00cdr\u00e1n vyhov\u00ed po\u017eadavk\u016fm Washingtonu? Nebo skon\u010d\u00ed, a\u017e Washingtonu dojdou rakety a Izrael bude le\u017eet v trosk\u00e1ch?<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve sv\u00e9m z\u00e1sadn\u00edm d\u00edle\u00a0<\/span>*V\u0161echny v\u00e1lky mus\u00ed skon\u010dit*<\/span><\/em>\u00a0Dr. Fred Ickle napsal: \u201eSt\u00e1ty mus\u00ed uplat\u0148ovat stejnou discipl\u00ednu p\u0159i pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed ukon\u010den\u00ed konfliktu jako p\u0159i pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed taktick\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f.\u201c Neochota konfrontovat se s koncem konfliktu je pochopiteln\u00e1, ale nezbytn\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 masivn\u00ed raketov\u00e9 arzen\u00e1ly jsou rozpt\u00fdleny po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b, mnoh\u00e9 z nich v podzem\u00ed. Pokud se americk\u00e9mu letectvu a raketov\u00fdm sil\u00e1m nepoda\u0159\u00ed neutralizovat obrovsk\u00fd \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd raketov\u00fd arzen\u00e1l t\u011b\u017ek\u00fdmi \u00fadery v pr\u016fb\u011bhu mnoha t\u00fddn\u016f a pokud se \u00cdr\u00e1nu poda\u0159\u00ed p\u0159emoci izraelskou protivzdu\u0161nou a raketovou obranu, bude B\u00edl\u00fd d\u016fm pot\u0159ebovat v\u00fdchodisko.<\/span><\/p>\n

*Od listopadu 1997 do prosince 1999 p\u016fsobil Macgregor jako hlavn\u00ed strat\u00e9g a \u0159editel Spole\u010dn\u00e9ho opera\u010dn\u00edho centra ve Vrchn\u00edm veliteli spojeneck\u00fdch sil v Evrop\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

*<\/span><\/p>\n

Autor: Plukovn\u00edk Douglas Macgregor (USA, ve v\u00fdslu\u017eb\u011b) je vyznamenan\u00fd v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd veter\u00e1n s doktor\u00e1tem z mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch vztah\u016f z University of Virginia. B\u011bhem prvn\u00ed Trumpovy administrativy byl hlavn\u00edm poradcem \u00fa\u0159aduj\u00edc\u00edho ministra obrany.*<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

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Pokud by vypukla v\u00e1lka, B\u00edl\u00fd d\u016fm pod Trumpem by mohl pot\u0159ebovat v\u00fdchodisko\u2026 Prezident Trump shrom\u00e1\u017edil…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":81308,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,452,37,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100388"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=100388"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100388\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/81308"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=100388"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=100388"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=100388"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}