{"id":100269,"date":"2026-02-23T00:27:43","date_gmt":"2026-02-22T23:27:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=100269"},"modified":"2026-02-22T20:44:30","modified_gmt":"2026-02-22T19:44:30","slug":"andrew-korybko-velka-strategie-trumpa-2-0-proti-cine-se-pomalu-ale-jiste-schyluje-k-zaveru","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/02\/23\/andrew-korybko-velka-strategie-trumpa-2-0-proti-cine-se-pomalu-ale-jiste-schyluje-k-zaveru\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Velk\u00e1 strategie Trumpa 2.0 proti \u010c\u00edn\u011b se pomalu, ale jist\u011b schyluje k z\u00e1v\u011bru"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Toto je velk\u00fd strategick\u00fd kontext, v n\u011bm\u017e prob\u00edhaj\u00ed rozhovory Ruska s USA a Ukrajinou.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

B\u011b\u017en\u00ed pozorovatel\u00e9 jsou p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010deni, \u017ee Trump je \u0161\u00edlenec, kter\u00fd za sv\u00fdm \u0161\u00edlenstv\u00edm neskr\u00fdv\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dnou metodu, ale realita je takov\u00e1, \u017ee on a jeho t\u00fdm \u2013 souhrnn\u011b ozna\u010dovan\u00ed jako Trump 2.0 \u2013 pomalu, ale jist\u011b realizuj\u00ed svou velkou strategii proti \u010c\u00edn\u011b. Ka\u017ed\u00fd jejich krok v zahrani\u010d\u00ed by m\u011bl b\u00fdt vn\u00edm\u00e1n jako prost\u0159edek k dosa\u017een\u00ed tohoto c\u00edle. Cht\u011bj\u00ed \u010c\u00ednu komplexn\u011b omezit a pot\u00e9 ji donutit k uzav\u0159en\u00ed jednostrann\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed dohody, kter\u00e1 podle\u00a0<\/span>N\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed strategie \u201eznovu vyv\u00e1\u017e\u00ed \u010d\u00ednskou ekonomiku sm\u011brem k spot\u0159eb\u011b dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed\u201c\u00a0<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump 2.0 se ale kv\u016fli tomu nechce dost\u00e1vat do v\u00e1lky, a proto si d\u00e1v\u00e1\u00a0<\/span>pozor, aby se vyhnul opakov\u00e1n\u00ed precedentu c\u00edsa\u0159sk\u00e9ho Japonska\u00a0<\/span><\/a>. P\u0159\u00edli\u0161 velk\u00fd ekonomicko-struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed tlak na \u010c\u00ednu najednou by ji mohl vyd\u011bsit a vyprovokovat k zoufal\u00e9mu \u00fatoku je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e se okno p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti uzav\u0159e. Proto se rozhodli postupn\u011b\u00a0<\/span>\u010c\u00ednu zbavit p\u0159\u00edstupu k trh\u016fm a zdroj\u016fm\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, ide\u00e1ln\u011b prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm s\u00e9rie obchodn\u00edch dohod, aby tak USA z\u00edskaly nep\u0159\u00edm\u00fd vliv pot\u0159ebn\u00fd k m\u00edrov\u00e9mu zma\u0159en\u00ed vzestupu \u010c\u00edny jako supervelmoci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Obchodn\u00ed dohody USA s\u00a0<\/span>EU\u00a0<\/span><\/a>a\u00a0<\/span>Indi\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>by mohly v kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku v\u00e9st k omezen\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstupu \u010c\u00edny na jejich trhy pod hrozbou sank\u010dn\u00edch cel, pokud by odm\u00edtly. Soub\u011b\u017en\u011b by\u00a0<\/span>speci\u00e1ln\u00ed operace USA\u00a0<\/span><\/a>ve Venezuele,\u00a0<\/span>tlak na \u00cdr\u00e1n\u00a0<\/span><\/a>a sou\u010dasn\u00e9 pokusy o pod\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed Nig\u00e9rie a dal\u0161\u00edch p\u0159edn\u00edch producent\u016f energie mohly\u00a0<\/span>omezit p\u0159\u00edstup \u010c\u00edny\u00a0<\/span><\/a>ke zdroj\u016fm pot\u0159ebn\u00fdm k podpo\u0159e jej\u00edho vzestupu jako supervelmoci. Kombinovan\u00fd efekt dosavadn\u00edho stavu ji\u017e vyv\u00edj\u00ed na \u010c\u00ednu obrovsk\u00fd tlak, aby s USA uzav\u0159ela dohodu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Toto je velk\u00fd strategick\u00fd kontext, v n\u011bm\u017e\u00a0<\/span>prob\u00edhaj\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>rusk\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s USA a Ukrajinou . I Rusko se dost\u00e1v\u00e1 pod obrovsk\u00fd tlak pot\u00e9, co Trump 2.0 ne\u010dekan\u011b (z jejich pohledu) zah\u00e1jil z\u00e1stupnou v\u00e1lku na Ukrajin\u011b, uspo\u0159\u00e1dal pr\u016flom do St\u0159edn\u00ed Asie prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm \u201e\u00a0<\/span><\/a>Trumpovy cesty k mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edmu m\u00edru a prosperit\u011b\u00a0<\/a>\u201c z lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho srpna p\u0159es\u00a0Ji\u017en\u00ed Kavkaz\u00a0<\/a>a p\u0159im\u011bl Indii k\u00a0omezen\u00ed dovozu ropy\u00a0<\/a>. Rusko se nyn\u00ed mus\u00ed rozhodnout, zda\u00a0uzav\u0159e vlastn\u00ed dohodu s USA\u00a0<\/a>, nebo se stane v\u00edce z\u00e1visl\u00fdm na \u010c\u00edn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prvn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 by mohl zahrnovat strategick\u00e9 partnerstv\u00ed s USA zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 na zdroje v\u00fdm\u011bnou za kompromis v jejich maximalistick\u00fdch c\u00edlech na Ukrajin\u011b, co\u017e by mohlo \u010c\u00ednu p\u0159ipravit o p\u0159\u00edstup k lo\u017eisk\u016fm, do kter\u00fdch USA investuj\u00ed, jak je vysv\u011btleno\u00a0<\/span>zde\u00a0<\/span><\/a>. Pokud jde o druh\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, Rusko by mohlo pokra\u010dovat ve sv\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>speci\u00e1ln\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>operaci\u00a0<\/a>donekone\u010dna s rostouc\u00ed \u010d\u00ednskou podporou v\u00fdm\u011bnou za to, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna z\u00edsk\u00e1 neomezen\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup k jej\u00edm zdroj\u016fm za nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ceny, co\u017e by \u010c\u00edn\u011b v\u00fdrazn\u011b pomohlo p\u0159ipravit se na v\u00e1lku s USA.<\/span><\/p>\n

Takto formulov\u00e1no by dosa\u017een\u00ed dohody s Ruskem mohlo usnadnit strategickou kapitulaci \u010c\u00edny v\u016f\u010di USA, ani\u017e by se zv\u00fd\u0161ilo riziko v\u00e1lky, zat\u00edmco pokud by se tak nestalo, mohlo by se zv\u00fd\u0161it riziko v\u00e1lky, pokud se Rusko z v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9ho d\u016fvodu prom\u011bn\u00ed v \u010d\u00ednskou rezervu surovin a se stejn\u00fdm v\u00fdsledkem v\u016f\u010di USA. To Putinovi d\u00e1v\u00e1 vliv v\u016f\u010di Trumpovi 2.0, ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 nejsou zoufal\u00ed po dosa\u017een\u00ed dohody s Putinem za ka\u017edou cenu, a proto\u00a0<\/span>Zelensk\u00e9ho nedonutili\u00a0<\/span><\/a>k po\u017eadovan\u00fdm \u00fastupk\u016fm a mo\u017en\u00e1 se tak nikdy nestane.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud se Trumpovi 2.0 nepoda\u0159\u00ed uzav\u0159\u00edt dohodu s Putinem, p\u0159iprav\u00ed se na v\u00e1lku s \u010c\u00ednou, co\u017e jejich\u00a0<\/span>N\u00e1rodn\u00ed obrann\u00e1 strategie\u00a0<\/span><\/a>po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 vzhledem k v\u00fdslovn\u011b deklarovan\u00e9mu nahromad\u011bn\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 s\u00edly podobn\u00e9 t\u00e9 druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce. A\u0165 je to jakkoli, replikace precedentu c\u00edsa\u0159sk\u00e9ho Japonska v tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b nebezpe\u010dn\u011b riskuje Pearl Harbor z 21.\u00a0<\/span>stolet\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/sup>, a t\u00edm ohro\u017euje jejich\u00a0<\/span>pl\u00e1novan\u00e9 obnoven\u00ed unipol\u00e1rn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu\u00a0<\/span><\/a>. Pro Trumpa 2.0 je proto lep\u0161\u00ed donutit Zelensk\u00e9ho, aby dal Putinovi, co chce, aby mohl m\u00edsto toho i nad\u00e1le m\u00edrov\u011b omezovat \u010c\u00ednu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Toto je velk\u00fd strategick\u00fd kontext, v n\u011bm\u017e prob\u00edhaj\u00ed rozhovory Ruska s USA a Ukrajinou. B\u011b\u017en\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":100270,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[3412,30,452,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100269"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=100269"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100269\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/100270"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=100269"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=100269"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=100269"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}