{"id":100227,"date":"2026-02-27T00:14:31","date_gmt":"2026-02-26T23:14:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=100227"},"modified":"2026-02-21T13:39:00","modified_gmt":"2026-02-21T12:39:00","slug":"zatimco-francie-usina-nasi-sousede-se-probouzeji","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/02\/27\/zatimco-francie-usina-nasi-sousede-se-probouzeji\/","title":{"rendered":"Zat\u00edmco Francie us\u00edn\u00e1, na\u0161i soused\u00e9 se probouzej\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

I kdy\u017e se nyn\u00ed zd\u00e1 zcela jasn\u00e9, \u017ee\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>Francie se hrout\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, nutn\u011b to neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee tot\u00e9\u017e plat\u00ed pro zbytek Evropy. V praxi si n\u011bkter\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed zem\u011b uv\u011bdomuj\u00ed nebezpe\u010d\u00ed a obt\u00ed\u017ee a postupn\u011b podnikaj\u00ed kroky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Francie byla po stalet\u00ed dominantn\u00ed zem\u00ed na evropsk\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u011b. Zat\u00edmco nyn\u00ed upad\u00e1, zem\u011b jako It\u00e1lie a Polsko, kter\u00e9 byly na konci minul\u00e9ho stolet\u00ed podstatn\u011b m\u00e9n\u011b bohat\u00e9, ji doh\u00e1n\u011bj\u00ed a dokonce i p\u0159ekon\u00e1vaj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

V It\u00e1lii poprv\u00e9 HDP na obyvatele (v parit\u011b kupn\u00ed s\u00edly) v letech 2025 a 2026 (nomin\u00e1ln\u00ed nebo upraven\u00e9 m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed) p\u0159ekonal HDP Francie, co\u017e znamen\u00e1 \u00fapln\u00e9 zotaven\u00ed po historick\u00e9 propasti ve prosp\u011bch Francie. Bohatstv\u00ed Francouz\u016f na obyvatele je\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>nyn\u00ed o 1,5 % ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e evropsk\u00fd pr\u016fm\u011br<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, zat\u00edmco v roce 2019 bylo o 5 % vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud jde o Polsko, podle\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>extrapolac\u00ed MMF a ekonom\u016f<\/span><\/a>\u00a0by polsk\u00fd HDP na obyvatele (upraven\u00fd podle parity kupn\u00ed s\u00edly) mohl v roce 2034 dos\u00e1hnout 84 500 a\u017e 84 600 dolar\u016f, oproti 83 700 dolar\u016fm ve Francii. Polsko by tak v roce 2034 Francii p\u0159ekonalo, pokud by sou\u010dasn\u00fd trend pokra\u010doval.\u2028<\/span><\/p>\n

Tyto paradigmatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny nejsou bez n\u00e1sledk\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jedn\u00edm z nich, p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdm d\u016fsledkem, je sbl\u00ed\u017een\u00ed mezi N\u011bmeckem a It\u00e1li\u00ed pozorovan\u00e9 se za\u010d\u00e1tkem \u201enov\u00e9 osy \u0158\u00edm-Berl\u00edn\u201c, kter\u00e1 se postupn\u011b prosazuje s rostouc\u00edm vlivem It\u00e1lie jako konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed protiv\u00e1ha Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017ee. Konkr\u00e9tn\u011b\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>mezivl\u00e1dn\u00ed summit<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0konan\u00fd 23. ledna 2026 v \u0158\u00edm\u011b mezi Giorgi\u00ed Meloni a Friedrichem Merzem vy\u00fastil v\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>19str\u00e1nkov\u00fd ak\u010dn\u00ed pl\u00e1n<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, kter\u00fd zahrnuje sedm bilater\u00e1ln\u00edch dohod o pr\u016fmyslu, obran\u011b, energetice, migraci a zjednodu\u0161en\u00ed regulace.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

Ob\u011b zem\u011b, p\u0159edn\u00ed v\u00fdrobci v Evropsk\u00e9 unii, prosazuj\u00ed deregulaci, zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 konkurenceschopnosti (zejm\u00e9na v automobilov\u00e9m a high-tech sektoru) a prohloubenou vojenskou spolupr\u00e1ci (v\u00fdcvik, cvi\u010den\u00ed, obrann\u00fd pr\u016fmysl, vesm\u00edr prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>projektu \u201eBromo\u201c<\/span><\/a>\u00a0).<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u011bmecko (s HDP p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 5,33 bilionu dolar\u016f, co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje 23\u201324 % EU) a It\u00e1lie (2,7 bilionu dolar\u016f, co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje 12 %) spole\u010dn\u011b tvo\u0159\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>36\u201337 % evropsk\u00e9ho HDP<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, co\u017e je v\u00fdznamn\u00e1 v\u00e1ha, kter\u00e1 usnad\u0148uje dosa\u017een\u00ed kvalifikovan\u00e9 v\u011bt\u0161iny (kter\u00e1 vy\u017eaduje 65 % populace EU). Toto pragmatick\u00e9 partnerstv\u00ed, kter\u00e9 n\u011bkolik anal\u00fdz (\u00a0<\/span>Le Monde<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, Le\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>JDD<\/span><\/a>\u00a0) popisuje jako \u201enovou osu\u201c, si klade za c\u00edl obej\u00edt tradi\u010dn\u00ed francouzsko-n\u011bmeckou patovou situaci prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm spole\u010dn\u00fdch n\u00e1vrh\u016f pro evropsk\u00fd summit o konkurenceschopnosti v \u00fanoru 2026 a agendy \u201em\u00e9n\u011b byrokracie, v\u00edce strategick\u00e9 autonomie\u201c… to v\u0161e bez \u010dek\u00e1n\u00ed na Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017e. Je t\u0159eba \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee zat\u00edmco byrokracie slibuje ochranu, konkurenceschopnost plat\u00ed \u00fa\u010det.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u011bmeck\u00fd kancl\u00e9\u0159 Merz\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>tak\u00e9 vol\u00e1<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0po revizi v\u0161ech evropsk\u00fdch politik a deregulaci v\u0161ech odv\u011btv\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prozat\u00edm m\u016f\u017eeme jist\u011b tvrdit, \u017ee jsou to jen slova, ale st\u00e1le je to v\u00edc ne\u017e jen francouzsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da, kter\u00e1 rychle nahradila my\u0161lenku dan\u00ed a \u010diny poplatkem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Polsko si z\u00e1rove\u0148 upev\u0148uje sv\u016fj vzestup k moci: jeho HDP v roce 2025 vzrostl o 3,6 % (ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s ~0,3 % v N\u011bmecku a ~0,9 % ve Francii) a\u00a0\u00a0podle Evropsk\u00e9 komise by v roce 2026 m\u011bl p\u0159ekro\u010dit\u00a0<\/a><\/span>1 bilion dolar\u016f<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0s p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00fdm r\u016fstem o 3,5 %\u00a0\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

Je zaj\u00edmav\u00e9, \u017ee zem\u011b nad\u00e1le potichu zvy\u0161uje sv\u00e9 rezervy: Polsko nyn\u00ed dr\u017e\u00ed v\u00edce zlata ne\u017e Evropsk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka. Var\u0161ava investuje do energetiky, zdravotnictv\u00ed a zejm\u00e9na obrany (vy\u010dle\u0148uje se na ni 4,8 a\u017e 5 % HDP a jej\u00ed arm\u00e1da se v r\u00e1mci\u00a0 programu\u00a0<\/span>\u201eV\u00fdchodn\u00ed \u0161t\u00edt\u201c<\/span><\/a>\u00a0roz\u0161i\u0159uje na 500 000 voj\u00e1k\u016f ).<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 role v oblasti bezpe\u010dnosti na v\u00fdchodn\u00edm k\u0159\u00eddle Polska, spolu s dynamickou ekonomikou, posiluje jeho vliv v koalic\u00edch, nap\u0159\u00edklad s N\u011bmeckem v oblasti konkurenceschopnosti nebo prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm Iniciativy t\u0159\u00ed mo\u0159\u00ed v geopolitice. Polsko se tak chce st\u00e1t nepostradateln\u00fdm ve vztahu k Ukrajin\u011b a Rusku, a t\u00edm\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>oslabit tradi\u010dn\u00ed francouzsk\u00e9 v\u016fd\u010d\u00ed postaven\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na rozd\u00edl od dojmu, kter\u00fd by se mohl z Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017ee zd\u00e1t, Pol\u00e1ci v t\u011bchto ot\u00e1zk\u00e1ch nejsou v\u017edy agresivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e Francie; jsou je\u0161t\u011b m\u00e9n\u011b, jejich pozice v prvn\u00ed linii v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b konfliktu s Rusy do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry tlum\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed horlivost. Proto Var\u0161ava\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>odm\u00edtla vyslat voj\u00e1ky na Ukrajinu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0k udr\u017een\u00ed m\u00edru, na rozd\u00edl od ve\u0159ejn\u011b vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed Francie a Spojen\u00e9ho kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Do jist\u00e9 m\u00edry nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt toto pos\u00edlen\u00ed polsk\u00e9 obrany pouze vzkazem pro Rusko, ale lze jej vn\u00edmat tak\u00e9 jako zp\u016fsob, jak uplatnit v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed vliv v evropsk\u00fdch diskus\u00edch v\u016f\u010di ostatn\u00edm z\u00e1padoevropsk\u00fdm zem\u00edm. To je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b d\u016fvod, pro\u010d Pol\u00e1ci st\u00e1le m\u00e9n\u011b v\u00e1haj\u00ed zpochyb\u0148ovat z\u00e1padn\u00ed politick\u00e9 volby, a dokonce nab\u00edzej\u00ed jasn\u011b disentn\u00ed politick\u00fd hlas, pokud jde o boj proti nejrepresivn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm opat\u0159en\u00edm evropsk\u00e9 byrokracie: jejich ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 odm\u00edtnut\u00ed Chatcontrolu, po kter\u00e9m n\u00e1sledovalo\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>naprost\u00e9 odm\u00edtnut\u00ed DSA polsk\u00fdm prezidentem,<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0to jist\u011b siln\u011b nazna\u010duje.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u011bmecko, It\u00e1lie a Polsko ukazuj\u00ed jinou cestu, ne\u017e jakou se chce vydat Francie: Evropsk\u00e1 unie se zdaleka nesna\u017e\u00ed vyhladit rozd\u00edly, ale naopak se \u201emultipolarizuje\u201c s osou \u0158\u00edm-Berl\u00edn, kter\u00e1 vnucuje pragmatickou pr\u016fmyslovou a bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed agendu, zat\u00edmco Polsko se st\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u00f3lem r\u016fstu a odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Francie, zm\u00edtan\u00e1 vnit\u0159n\u00edmi krizemi, slabou ekonomikou a st\u00e1le neschopn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed politickou t\u0159\u00eddou, ztr\u00e1c\u00ed p\u016fdu pod nohama a \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 rychl\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed nen\u00ed na dohled. Prezidentsk\u00e9 volby v roce 2027 riskuj\u00ed, \u017ee situaci d\u00e1le zhor\u0161\u00ed, vzhledem k mizern\u00e9 kvalit\u011b sou\u010dasn\u00fdch kandid\u00e1t\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento evropsk\u00fd posun nen\u00ed jasn\u00fdm zlomem, ale rekonfigurac\u00ed, v n\u00ed\u017e se Berl\u00edn p\u0159ikl\u00e1n\u00ed k partner\u016fm v\u00edce zam\u011b\u0159en\u00fdm na deregulaci a\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>realpolitiku<\/span><\/em>\u00a0\u00a0a v n\u00ed\u017e francouzsko-n\u011bmeck\u00fd p\u00e1r st\u00e1le v\u00edce p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 star\u00e9 man\u017eelstv\u00ed, kde jeden z nich si ji\u017e znovu vybudoval \u017eivot v \u0158\u00edm\u011b, zat\u00edmco druh\u00fd nad\u00e1le prost\u00edr\u00e1 st\u016fl pro dva.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00e1rody neupadaj\u00ed n\u00e1hle: pomalu upadaj\u00ed do apatie. Tentokr\u00e1t nebudou tanky pot\u0159eba jako \u201eosa\u201c, kter\u00e1 by zni\u010dila Francii; Francie se o to velmi dob\u0159e postar\u00e1 sama, zat\u00edmco Pol\u00e1ci, kte\u0159\u00ed se zdaleka nestanou d\u00e1lnic\u00ed mezi Ruskem a N\u011bmeckem, by se mohli st\u00e1t kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm bodem ve st\u0159edn\u00ed Evrop\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\"\"Zdroj: <\/span>h16free<\/span><\/a><\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I kdy\u017e se nyn\u00ed zd\u00e1 zcela jasn\u00e9, \u017ee\u00a0\u00a0Francie se hrout\u00ed\u00a0, nutn\u011b to neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee tot\u00e9\u017e…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":100228,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,2145,130,2718,371],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100227"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=100227"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100227\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/100228"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=100227"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=100227"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=100227"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}